The geometry of security: Modeling interstate alliances as evolving networks

Journal of Peace Research

Volumn 47, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 697-709

  Warren, T Camber ^a  

^a University of Zurich and Center for Comparative and International Studies   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

dyadic interdependence; international security; military cooperation; network analysis; statistical inference

Indexed keywords

EID: 78649336962     PISSN: 00223433     EISSN: 14603578     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/0022343310386270     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Achen, Christopher H (2002) Toward a new political methodology: Microfoundations and ART. Annual Review of Political Science 5: 423-450.
2. Anderson, Carolyn J; Stanley Wasserman & Bradley Crouch (1999) A p* primer: Logit models for social networks. Social Networks 21(1): 37-66.
3. Bennett, D Scott & Allan Stam (2000) EUGene: A conceptual manual. International Interactions 26(2): 179-204 (http://eugenesoftware.org).
4. Carr, Edward Hallett (1952) German-Soviet relations between the Two World Wars, 1919-1939. London: Oxford University Press.
5. de Marchi, Scott (2005) Computational and Mathematical Modeling in the Social Sciences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
6. Fearon, James D (1994) Domestic political audiences and the escalation of international disputes. American Political Science Review 88(3): 577-592.
7. Franzese, Robert J Jr & Jude Hays (2007) Spatial-econometric models of cross-sectional interdependence in political-science panel and time-series-cross-section data. Political Analysis 15(2): 140-164.
8. Fruchterman, Thomas MJ and Edward M Reingold (1991) Graph drawing by force-directed placement. Software - Practice & Experience 21(11): 1129-1164.
9. Gartzke, Erik & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch (2004) Why democracies may actually be less reliable allies. American Journal of Political Science 48(4): 775-795.
10. Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor (1996) Democratic states and commitment in international relations. International Organization 50(1): 109-139.
11. Gibler, Douglas (2008) The costs of reneging: Reputation and alliance formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 52(3): 426-454.
12. Gibler, Douglas M & Toby Rider (2004) Prior commitments: Compatible interests versus capabilities in alliance behavior. International Interactions 30(4): 309-330.
13. Gibler, Douglas M & Scott Wolford (2006) Alliances, then democracy: An examination of the relationship between regime type and alliance formation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(1): 129-153.
14. Gleditsch, Kristian S (2002) Expanded trade and GDP data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(5): 712-724.
15. Gleditsch, Kristian S & Michael D Ward (2001) Measuring space: A minimum-distance database and applications to international studies. Journal of Peace Research 38(6): 739-758.
16. Greene, William H (2003) Econometric Analysis, 5th edn. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
17. Henderson, Errol A (1997) Culture or contiguity: Ethnic conflict, the similarity of states, and the onset of war, 1820-1989. Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(5): 649-668.
18. Hoff, Peter D & Michael D Ward (2004) Modeling dependencies in international relations networks. Political Analysis 12(2): 160-175.
19. Jones, Daniel M; Stuart A Bremer & J David Singer (1996) Militarized interstate disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, coding rules, and empirical patterns. Conflict Management and Peace Science 15(2): 163-213.
20. Kamada, Tomihisa & Satoru Kawai (1989) An algorithm for drawing general undirected graphs. Information Processing Letters 31(1): 7-15.
21. Kimball, Anessa L (2006) Alliance formation and conflict initiation: The missing link. Journal of Peace Research 43(4): 371-389.
22. Lai, Brian & Dan Reiter (2000) Democracy, political similarity, and international alliances, 1816-1992. Journal of Conflict Resolution 44(2): 203-227.
23. Leeds, Brett Ashley (1999) Domestic political institutions, credible commitments, and international cooperation. American Journal of Political Science 43(4): 979-1002.
24. Leeds, Brett Ashley (2003a) Do alliances deter aggression? The influence of military alliances on the initiation of militarized interstate disputes. American Journal of Political Science 47(3): 427-439.
25. Leeds, Brett Ashley (2003b) Alliance reliability in times of war: Explaining state decisions to violate treaties. International Organization 57(4): 801-827.
26. Leeds, Brett Ashley; Jeffrey M Ritter, Sara McLaughlin Mitchell & Andrew G Long (2002) Alliance treaty obligations and provisions, 1815-1944. International Interactions 28(3): 237-260.
27. Long, Andrew G (2003) Defense pacts and international trade. Journal of Peace Research 40(5): 537-553.
28. Long, Andrew G & Brett Ashley Leeds (2006) Trading for security: Military alliances and economic agreements. Journal of Peace Research 43(4): 433-451.
29. Maoz, Zeev (1999) Dyadic Militarized Interstate Disputes (DYMID1.1) Dataset: Version 1.1 Codebook. Tel Aviv: Tel Aviv University.
30. Maoz, Zeev; Lesley G Terris, Ranan D Kuperman & Ilan Talmud (2007) What is the enemy of my enemy? Causes and implications of imbalanced international relations, 1816-2001. Journal of Politics 69(1): 100-115.
31. Marshall, Monty G & Keith Jaggers (2002) Polity IV project: Political regime characteristics and transitions, 1800-2002 (http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/polity/index.htm).
32. McKelvey, Richard D & Thomas R Palfrey (1998) Quantal response equilibria for extensive form games. Experimental Economics 1(1): 9-41.
33. Morrow, James D (1991) Alliances and asymmetry: An alternative to the capability aggregation model of alliances. American Journal of Political Science 35(4): 904-933.
34. Morrow, James D (2000) Alliances: Why write them down? Annual Review of Political Science 3: 63-83.
35. Robbins, Herbert & Sutton Monro (1951) A stochastic approximation method. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 22(3): 400-407.
36. Robins, Garry; Tom Snijders, Peng Wang, Mark Handcock & Philippa Pattison (2007) Recent developments in exponential random graph (p*) models for social networks. Social Networks 29(2): 192-215.
37. Schweinberger, Michael (2005) Statistical modeling of network panel data: Goodness of fit. Unpublished manuscript (http://www.stat.washington.edu/msch/goodness-of-fit.pdf).
38. Schweller, Randall L (1994) Bandwagoning for profit: Bringing the revisionist state back in. International Security 19(1): 72-107.
39. Signorino, Curtis S (1999) Strategic interaction and the statistical analysis of international conflict. American Political Science Review 93(2): 279-297.
40. Signorino, Curtis S & Jeffrey M Ritter (1999) Tau-b or not Tau-b: Measuring the similarity of foreign policy positions. International Studies Quarterly 43(1): 115-144.
41. Signorino, Curtis S & Kuzey Yilmaz (2003) Strategic misspecification in regression models. American Journal of Political Science 47(3): 551-566.
42. Simon, Michael W & Erik Gartzke (1996) Political system similarity and the choice of allies: Do democracies flock together, or do opposites attract? Journal of Conflict Resolution 40(4): 617-635.
43. Singer, J David; Stuart Bremer & John Stuckey (1972) Capability distribution, uncertainty, and major power war, 1820-1965. In: Bruce Russett (ed.) Peace, War, and Numbers. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 19-48.
44. Siverson, Randolph M & Juliann Emmons (1991) Birds of a feather: Democratic political systems and alliance choices in the twentieth century. Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(2): 285-306.
45. Small, Melvin & J David Singer (1982) Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
46. Smith, Alastair (1995) Alliance formation and war. International Studies Quarterly 39(4): 405-426.
47. Smith, Alastair (1996) To intervene or not to intervene: A biased decision. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40(1): 16-40.
48. Smith, Alastair (1998) International crises and domestic politics. American Political Science Review 92(3): 623-638.
49. Snijders, Tom AB (1996) Stochastic actor-oriented models for network change. Journal of Mathematical Sociology 21(1-2): 149-172.
50. Snijders, Tom AB (2001) The statistical evaluation of social network dynamics. In: ME Sobel & MP Becker (eds) Sociological Methodology. Boston and London: Basil Blackwell, 361-395.
51. Snijders, Tom AB (2005a) Models for longitudinal network data. In: Peter Carrington, John Scott & Stanley Wasserman (eds) Models and Methods in Social Network Analysis. New York: Cambridge University Press.
52. Snijders, Tom AB (2005b) Statistical modeling of dynamics of non-directed networks. Presentation at the XXV International Sunbelt Social Networks Conference, Redondo Beach (Los Angeles), 16-20 February.
53. Snijders, Tom AB & Marijtje AJ Van Duijn (1997) Simulation for statistical inference in dynamic network models. In Rosario Conte, Rainer Hegselmann & Pietro Terna (eds) Simulating Social Phenomena. Berlin: Springer, 493-512.
54. Snijders, Tom AB; Christian EG Steglich, Michael Schweinberger & Mark Huisman (2007) Manual for SIENA version 3.1. University of Groningen: ICS / Department of Sociology; University of Oxford: Department of Statistics (http://stat.gamma.rug.nl/stocnet).
55. Snyder, Glenn H (1997) Alliance Politics. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
56. Sprecher, Christopher & Volker Krause (2006) Alliances, armed conflict, and cooperation: Theoretical approaches and empirical evidence. Journal of Peace Research 43(4): 363-369.
57. Sweeney, Kevin J & Paul Fritz (2004) Jumping on the bandwagon: An interest based explanation for great power alliances. Journal of Politics 66(2): 428-49.
58. Vizulis, Izidors (1990) The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939: The Baltic Case. New York: Praeger.
59. Walt, Stephen (1987) The Origins of Alliances. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
60. Waltz, Kenneth (1979) Theory of International Politics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
61. Wasserman, Stanley & Katherine Faust (1994) Social Network Analysis: Methods and Applications. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
62. Wasserman, Stanley & Philippa Pattison (1996) Logit models and logistic regressions for social networks: I. An introduction to Markov graphs and p. Psychometrika 61(3): 401-425.