ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 37, Issue 9-10, 2011, Pages 2045-2065

  Boucharel, J ^a,b   Dewitte, B ^a   du Penhoat, Y ^a   Garel, B ^c   Yeh, S W ^d   Kug, J S ^e  

^a LEGOS   (France)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^c INSTITUT DE MATHÉMATIQUES DE TOULOUSE   (France)

^d Hanyang University   (South Korea)

^e Korea Research Institute of Ships and Ocean Engineering   (South Korea)

Author keywords

ENSO; Global warming, El Ni o Modoki; Heavy tails law; Nonlinearity; Statistics

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; GLOBAL WARMING; NONLINEARITY; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

EID: 80355132182     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1119-9     Document Type: Article

References (76)

1. AchutaRao K, Sperber KR (2002) Simulation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation: results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Clim Dyn 19: 191-209.
2. AchutaRao K, Sperber K (2006) ENSO simulations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models: are the current models better? Clim Dyn 27: 1-15.
3. An S-I (2004) Interdecadal changes in the El Niño-La Niña asymmetry. Geophys Res Lett 31: L23210. doi: 101029/2004GL021299.
4. An S-I (2009) A review of interdecadal changes in the nonlinearity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Theor Appl Climatol 97: 29-40.
5. An S-I, Jin F-F (2001) Collective role of thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks in the ENSO mode. J Clim 14: 3421-3432.
6. An S-I, Jin F-F (2004) Nonlinearity and asymmetry of ENSO. J Clim 17: 2399-2412.
7. An S-I, Wang B (2000) Interdecadal change of the structure of the ENSO mode and its impact on the ENSO frequency. J Clim 13: 2044-2055.
8. An S-I, Ham Y-G, Kug J-S, Jin F-F, Kang I-S (2005) El Niño-La Niña asymmetry in the coupled model Intercomparison project simulations. J Clim 18: 2617-2627.
9. Ashok K, Yamagata T (2009) The El Niño with a difference. Nature 461: 481-484.
10. Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao SA, Weng H, Yamagata T (2007) El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J Geophys Res 112: C11007.
11. Belmadani A, Dewitte B, An S-I (2010) ENSO feedbacks and associated time scales of variability in a multi-model ensemble. J Clim 23: 3181-3204.
12. Boucharel J, Dewitte B, Garel B, du Penhoat Y (2009) ENSO's non-stationary and non-Gaussian character: the role of climate shifts. Nonlin Proc Geophys 16: 453-473.
13. Box G, Jenkins G (1970) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Francisco.
14. Braconnot P et al (2007) Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the Mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum-part 1: experiments and large-scale features. Clim Past 3(2): 261-277.
15. Brown J, Collins M, Tudhope AW, Toniazzo T (2007) Modelling mid-Holocene tropical climate and ENSO variability: towards constraining predictions of future change with palaeo-data. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-007-0270-9.
16. Burgers G, Stephenson DB (1999) The normality of El Niño. Geophys Res Lett 26(8): 1027-1039.
17. 2 levels on tropical climate: a CGCM study. Clim Dynam 31: 743-758.
18. Choi J, An S-I, Dewitte B, Hsieh WW (2009) Interactive feedback between the tropical Pacific decadal oscillation and ENSO in a coupled general circulation model. J Clim 22: 6597-6611.
19. Clement AC, Seager R, Cane MA (2000) Suppression of El Niño during the mid-Holocene by changes in the Earth's orbit. Paleoceanography 15: 731-737.
20. Collins M et al (2005) El Niño- or La Niña-like climate change? Clim Dyn 24: 89-104.
21. d'Estampes L (2003) Traitement statistique des processus alpha stables. Mesure de dépendances et identification des AR stables. These de l'Institut National Polytechnique de Toulouse, 125 pp.
22. Davey M et al (2002) STOIC: a study of coupled model climatology and variability in tropical ocean regions. Clim Dynam 18: 403-420.
23. Dewitte B, Yeh S-W, Moon B-K, Cibot C, Terray L (2007) Rectification of the ENSO variability by interdecadal changes in the equatorial background mean state in a CGCM simulation. J Clim 20(10): 2002-2021.
24. DiNezio PN, Clement AC, Vecchi GA, Soden BJ, Kirtman BP, Lee S-K (2009) Climate response of the equatorial Pacific to global warming. J Clim 22: 4873-4892.
25. DiNezio PN, Clement AC, Vecchi GA (2010) Reconciling theory, models, and observations of Tropical Pacific climate change. Eos Trans Am Geophys Union (accepted).
26. Efron B (1982) The jackknife, the bootstrap, and other resampling plans. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, CBMS-NSF Monographs, vol 38, pp 1-92.
27. Flügel M, Chang P, Penland C (2004) The role of stochastic forcing in modulating ENSO predictability. J Clim 17: 3125-3140.
28. Gnedenko VB, Kolmogorov AN (1954) Limit distributions for sums of random variables. Addison-Wesley.
29. Guilderson TP, Schrag DP (1998) Abrupt shift in subsurface temperatures in the tropical pacific associated with changes in El Niño. Science 281(5374): 240-243.
30. Guilyardi E, Wittenberg A, Fedorov A, Collins M, Wang C, Capotondi A, van Oldenborgh GJ, Stockdale T (2009) Understanding El Niño in Ocean-Atmosphere general circulation models: progress and challenges. Bull Am Meteor Soc 90: 325-340.
31. Hannachi A, Stephenson DB, Sperber KR (2003) Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO. Clim Dyn. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-002-0263-7.
32. Jin F-F, Neelin DJ, Ghil M (1994) El Niño on the devil's staircase: annual subharmonic steps to chaos. Science 264: 70-72.
33. Jin F-F, An S-I, Timmermann A, Zhang X (2003) Strong El Nino events and nonlinear dynamical heating. Geophys Res Lett 30. doi: 10. 1029/2002GL016356.
34. Kao H-Y, Yu J-Y (2009) Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO. J Clim 22: 615-632.
35. Kaplan A, Cane M, Kushnir Y, Clement A, Blumenthal M, Rajagopalan B (1998) Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J Geophys Res 103: 18567-18589.
36. Karnauskas KB, Seager R, Kaplan A, Kushnir Y, Cane MA (2009) Observed strengthening of the zonal sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. J Clim 22: 4316-4432.
37. Koutrouvelis IA (1980) Regression-type estimation of the parameters of stable laws. J Am Stat Assoc 75: N 372.
38. Kug J-S, Jin F-F, An S-I (2009) Two types of El Niño events: cold tongue El Niño and Warm Pool El Niño. J Clim 22: 1499-1515.
39. Kug J-S, Choi J, An S-I, Jin F-F, Wittenberg AT (2010) Warm pool and cold tongue El Nino events as simulated by the GFDL 2. 1 coupled GCM. J Clim 23: 1226-1239.
40. Larkin NK, Harrison DE (2005a) On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U. S. weather anomalies. Geophys Res Lett 32: L13705. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL022738.
41. Larkin NK, Harrison DE (2005b) Global seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies during El Nino autumn and winter. Geophys Res Lett 32: L16705. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL022860.
42. Latif M, Keenlyside NS (2008) El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106: 20578-20583.
43. Latif M et al (2001) ENSIP: the El Niño simulation intercomparison project. Clim Dyn 18: 255-276.
44. Lévy P (1924) Théorie des erreurs: Les lois de Gauss et les lois exponentielles. Bull Soc Math France 52: 49-95.
45. Lin J-L (2007) Interdecadal variability of ENSO in 21 IPCC AR4 coupled CGCMs. Geophys Res Lett 34: L12702.
46. Liu Z, Vavrus S, He F, Wen N, Zhong Y (2005) Rethinking tropical ocean response to global warming: the enhanced equatorial warming. J Clim 18: 4684-4700.
47. Mandelbrot B (1963) The variation of certain speculative prices. J Bus 36: 394-419.
48. Maronna R, Yohai VJ (1978) A bivariate test for the detection of a systematic change in mean. J Am Stat Assoc 73: N363.
49. 18O records of anomalous Holocene variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett L11204. doi: 10. 1029/2004GL019972.
50. Meehl GA, Covey C, Delworth T, Latif M, McAvaney B, Mitchell JFB, Stouffer RJ, Taylor KE (2007) The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset: a new era in climate change research. Bull Am Meteor Soc 88: 1383-1394.
51. Monahan AH, Dai A (2004) The spatial and temporal structure of ENSO nonlinearity. J Clim 17: 3026-3036.
52. Moon B-K, Yeh S-W, Dewitte B, Jhun J-G, Kang I-S, Kirtman BP (2004) Vertical structure variability in the equatorial Pacific before and after the Pacific climate shift of the 1970s. Geophys Res Lett 31: L03203. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL018829.
53. Philip SY, van Oldenborgh GJ (2009) Significant atmospheric nonlinearities in the ENSO cycle. J Clim 22(14): 4014-4028.
54. Picaut J, Ioualalen M, Menkes C, Delcroix T, McPhaden MJ (1996) Mechanism of the Zonal displacements of the Pacific warm pool: implications for ENSO. Science 274: 1486-1489.
55. Randall DA et al (2007) Climate models and their evaluation. In: S Solomon et al. (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 589-662.
56. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Global analyses of SST, sea ice and night marine air temperature since the late 19th century. J Geophys Res 108(D14): 4407. doi: 10. 1029/2002JD002670.
57. Reichler T, Kim J (2008) How well do coupled models simulate today's climate? Bull Am Meteor Soc 89: 303-311.
58. Rodgers KB, Friederichs P, Latif M (2004) Tropical Pacific decadal variability and its relation to decadal modulations of ENSO. J Clim 17: 3761-3774.
59. Schopf PS, Burgman RJ (2006) A simple mechanism for ENSO residuals and asymmetry. J Clim 19: 3167-3179.
60. Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J Clim 21: 2283-2296.
61. Timmermann A (1999) Detecting the nonstationary response of ENSO to greenhouse Warming. J Atmos Sci 56: 2313-2325.
62. Timmermann A, Jin F-F (2002) A nonlinear mechanism for decadal El Niño amplitude changes. Geophys Res Lett. doi: 10. 1029/2001GL013369.
63. Timmermann A, Latif M, Bacher A, Oberhuber J, Roeckner E (1999) Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature 398: 694-696.
64. Timmermann A, Jin F-F, Abshagen J (2003) A nonlinear theory of El Niño bursting. J Atmos Sci 60: 152-165.
65. Tsonis AA (2009) Dynamical changes in the ENSO system in the last 11, 000 years. Clim Dynam 33: 1069-1074.
66. Tziperman E, Stone L, Cane MA, Jarosh H (1994) El Niño chaos: overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator. Science 264: 72-74.
67. Urban FE, Cole JE, Overpeck JT (2000) Modification of tropical Pacific variability by its mean state inferred from a 155-year coral record. Nature 407: 989-993.
68. van Oldenborgh GJ, Philip SY, Collins M (2005) El Niño in a changing climate: a multi model study. Ocean Sci 1: 81-95.
69. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J Clim v20(17): 4316-4340.
70. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ, Wittenberg AT, Held IM, Leetmaa A, Harrison MJ (2006) Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature v. 441. doi: 10. 1038/nature04744.
71. Weng H, Ashok K, Behera SK, Rao A, Yamagata T (2007) Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer. Clim Dyn 29. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-007-0234-0.
72. White GH (1980) Skewness, kurtosis and extreme values of Northern Hemisphere geopotential heights. Mon Weather Rev 108: 1446-1455.
73. Yeh S-W, Kirtman BP (2007) ENSO amplitude changes due to climate change projections in different coupled models. J Clim 20: 203-217.
74. Yeh S-W, Kug J-S, Dewitte B, Kwon M-H, Kirtman BP, Jin F-F (2009) El Niño in a changing climate. Nature 461: 511-514.
75. Yeh S-W, Dewitte B, Yim B-Y, Noh Y (2010) Role of the upper ocean structure in the response of ENSO-like SST variability to global warming. Clim Dyn (revised).
76. Zebiak SE, Cane MA (1987) A model of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115: 2262-2278.