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13C correction using the stable isotope results. The external precision of the radiocarbon measurements is ±4 per mil (1σ). The age model is derived from a linear interpolation procedure between the oxygen isotope results and the instrumental SST record in the Galápagos Islands by matching peaks and troughs, with an estimated error of less than 3 months. Linear trends of upwelling and nonupwelling season extremes were determined for the 1960-1975 and 1976-1983 periods and were offset by 20 per mil for the upwelling season. We did not include the 1975 upwelling nor the 1976 warm season extremes, in order to unbias the trends.
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The early shift in 1955-1956 could be the result of poor spatial coverage and instrumental bias while SST measurement techniques migrated from bucket measurements to engine intake measurements [T. P. Barnett, Mon. Weather Rev. 112, 303 (1984)]. The Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) database does not attempt to correct for potential instrumental biases, whereas the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) database does.
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We performed a pooled t test of the means of the warm and upwelling seasons for the Niño-3 region using both the COADS and GOSTA databases for the periods 1956-1975 and 1976-1992. Mean upwelling SSTs are significantly different (P < 0.01) for both data sets. Warm season SSTs are nearly identical in the two time periods. Slight differences between data sets exist in terms of absolute SST and magnitude of change relative to the shift in 1976. However, in both data sets, mean coldest month SSTs shift 0.6° (GOSTA) to 1.0° (COADS) in relation to their post-1955 intervals.
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We examined hydrographic profiles (2°N to 2°S, 85° to 110°W) that are archived in the Scripps Institute of Oceanography, National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) SD2 database. Although there are not enough profiles to create seasonally resolved composite profiles, there is a consistent increase in subsurface salinity and potential temperature after 1976. The salinity increase is not enough to offset the impact of high temperatures on subsurface density. In the conductivity-temperature-depth database, the subsurface warming maxima (1.2°C) is between 40 and 80 dbar and extends to depths >300 dbar. Analysis of all available temperature data [expendable bathythermograph, mechanical bathythermograph, Integrated Global Ocean Station System (IGOSS) radio message bathythermograph, and Nansen casts archived at NODC] shows a similar profile with the subsurface temperature maximum difference of 1.6°C The warming is persistent irrespective of the inclusion of years with strong El Niño events.
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This manuscript benefited greatly from discussions with M. Cane, G. Philander, K. Rodgers, and S. Trumbore. The authors thank M. Kashgarian, J. Southon, and E. Goddard for assistance. Critical comments and reviews were provided by E. Druffel, W. Jenkins, and two anonymous reviewers. This work was supported by a grant from NSF's program in Physical Oceanography (OCE-9796253) and by grants from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (98-ERI-002 and a Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry minigrant). Radiocarbon analyses were performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (contract W-7405-Eng-48). Data will be digitally archived at the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (Oak Ridge, TN) and the World Data Center A (Boulder, CO).
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