Potential impacts of climatic change on the breeding and non-breeding ranges and migration distance of European Sylvia warblers

Journal of Biogeography

Volumn 36, Issue 6, 2009, Pages 1194-1208

  Doswald, Nathalie ^a   Willis, Stephen G ^a   Collingham, Yvonne C ^a   Pain, Deborah J ^b   Green, Rhys E ^b,c   Huntley, Brian ^a  

^a DURHAM UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^b RSPB CENTRE FOR CONSERVATION SCIENCE   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate envelope model; Climate response surface; Distribution; Generalized additive models; Migratory birds; Palaearctic; Species range change; Sylvia

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE; BREEDING POPULATION; BREEDING SITE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; HOME RANGE; MIGRATION; MIGRATORY BEHAVIOR; MIGRATORY SPECIES; PALEARCTIC REGION; SONGBIRD;

AVES; SYLVIA;

EID: 65949114299     PISSN: 03050270     EISSN: 13652699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02086.x     Document Type: Article

References (80)

1. Alerstam, T. Lindström, A. (1990) Optimal bird migration: the relative importance of time, energy and safety. Bird migration: physiology and ecophysiology (ed. by E. Gwinner pp. 331 351. Springer, Berlin.
2. Alerstam, T., Hedenstrom, A. Akesson, S. (2003) Long-distance migration: evolution and determinants. Oikos, 103, 247 260. (Pubitemid 37435882)
3. Araújo, M.B., Thuiller, W. Pearson, R.G. (2006) Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1712 1728. (Pubitemid 44370087)
4. Austin, G.E. Rehfisch, M.M. (2005) Shifting nonbreeding distributions of migratory fauna in relation to climatic change. Global Change Biology, 11, 31 38. (Pubitemid 40134044)
5. Baillie, S. Peach, W. (1992) Population limitation in Palaearctic-African migrant passerines. Ibis, 134, 120 121.
6. Bearhop, S., Fiedler, W., Furness, R.W., Votier, S.C., Waldron, S., Newton, J., Bowen, G.J., Berthold, P. Farnsworth, K. (2005) Assortative mating as a mechanism for rapid evolution of a migratory divide. Science, 310, 502 504. (Pubitemid 41507966)
7. Bell, C.P. (2007) Climate change and spring migration in the yellow wagtail Motacilla flava: an Afrotropical perspective. Journal of Ornithology, 148, S495 S499. (Pubitemid 350238503)
8. Bensch, S. (1999) Is the range size of migratory birds constrained by their migratory program? Journal of Biogeography, 26, 1225 1235. (Pubitemid 30065515)
9. Berthold, P. (1988) Evolutionary aspects of migratory behaviour in European warblers. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 1, 195 209.
10. Berthold, P. (2001) Bird migration: a general survey, 2nd edn. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
11. Berthold, P. Helbig, A.J. (1992) The genetics of bird migration - stimulus, timing, and direction. Ibis, 134, 35 40.
12. Böhning-Gaese, K. Lemoine, N. (2004) Importance of climate change for the ranges, communities and conservation of birds. Birds and climate change, Advances in Ecological Research Vol. 35 (ed. by A.P. Møller, H. Caswell, W. Fiedler P. Berthold pp. 211 236. Academic Press, London. (Pubitemid 39752187)
13. Böhning-Gaese, K., Schuda, M.D. Helbig, A.J. (2003) Weak phylogenetic effects on ecological niches of Sylvia warblers. Journal of Evolutionary Biology, 16, 956 965. (Pubitemid 37073865)
14. Böhning-Gaese, K., Caprano, T., van Ewijk, K. Veith, M. (2006) Range size: disentangling current traits and phylogenetic and biogeographic factors. The American Naturalist, 167, 555 567.
15. Both, C. Visser, M.E. (2001) Adjustment to climate change is constrained by arrival date in a long-distance migrant bird. Nature, 411, 296 298. (Pubitemid 32467032)
16. Both, C., Bouwhuis, S., Lessells, C.M. Visser, M.E. (2006) Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird. Nature, 441, 81 83. (Pubitemid 43827954)
17. Christensen, J.H., Hewitson, B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X., Held, I., Jones, R., Kolli, R.K., Kwon, W.-T., Laprise, R., Magaña Rueda, V., Mearns, L., Menéndez, C.G., Räisänen, J., Rinke, A., Sarr, A. Whetton, P. (2007) Regional climate projections. Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor H.L. Miller pp. 847 940. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
18. Clegg, S.M., Kelly, J.F., Kimura, M. Smith, T.B. (2003) Combining genetic markers and stable isotopes to reveal population connectivity and migration patterns in a Neotropical migrant, Wilson's warbler (Wilsonia pusilla). Molecular Ecology, 12, 819 830. (Pubitemid 36524280)
19. Cleveland, W.S. Devlin, S.J. (1988) Locally weighted regression: an approach to regression analysis by local fitting. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, 596 610.
20. Cohen, J. (1960) A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurements, 20, 37 46.
21. Cotton, P.A. (2003) Avian migration phenology and global climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 100, 12219 12222. (Pubitemid 37271541)
22. Crick, H.Q.P. (2004) The impact of climate change on birds. Ibis, 146, 48 56.
23. Crick, H.Q.P., Dudley, C., Glue, D.E. Thompson, D.L. (1997) UK birds are laying eggs earlier. Nature, 388, 526. (Pubitemid 27339992)
24. Erasmus, B.F.N., Van Jaarsveld, A.S., Chown, S.L., Kshatriya, M. Wessels, K.J. (2002) Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change. Global Change Biology, 8, 679 693.
25. Erni, B., Liechti, F. Bruderer, B. (2005) The role of wind in passerine autumn migration between Europe and Africa. Behavioural Ecology, 16, 732 740. (Pubitemid 41373592)
26. Fielding, A.H. (2002) What are the appropriate characteristics of an accuracy measure? Predicting species occurrences: issues of accuracy and scale (ed. by J.M. Scott, P.J. Heglund, F. Samson, J. Haufler, M. Morrison, M. Raphael B. Wall pp. 271 280. Island Press, Covelo, CA.
27. Fielding, A.H. Bell, J.F. (1997) A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models. Environmental Conservation, 24, 38 49. (Pubitemid 27376840)
28. Gordo, O., Brotons, L., Ferrer, X. Comas, P. (2005) Do changes in climate patterns in wintering areas affect the timing of the spring arrival of trans-Saharan migrant birds? Global Change Biology, 11, 12 21. (Pubitemid 40134042)
29. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C.A., Banks, H., Gregory, J.M., Johns, T.C., Mitchell, J.F.B. Wood, R.A. (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics, 16, 147 168. (Pubitemid 30192427)
30. Green, R.E., Collingham, Y.C., Willis, S.G., Gregory, R.D., Smith, K.W. Huntley, B. (2008) Performance of climate envelope models in retrodicting recent changes in bird population size from observed climatic change. Biology Letters, 4, 599 602.
31. Hagemeijer, E.J.M. Blair, M.J. (1997) The EBCC atlas of European breeding birds: their distribution and abundance. T & AD Poyser, London.
32. Hastie, T. (2006) GAM: generalized additive models. R Package Version 0.97. Available at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/gam/index.html (last accessed 28/01/2009).
33. Herrmann, S.M., Anyamba, A. Tucker, C.J. (2005) Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate. Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 15, 394 404. (Pubitemid 41608735)
34. Hirst, A.C., Gordon, H.B. Ofarrell, S.P. (1996) Global warming in a coupled climate model including oceanic eddy-induced advection. Geophysical Research Letters, 23, 3361 3364. (Pubitemid 27177689)
35. Huntley, B., Berry, P.M., Cramer, W.P. McDonald, A.P. (1995) Modelling present and potential future ranges of some European higher plants using climate response surfaces. Journal of Biogeography, 22, 967 1001. (Pubitemid 26481757)
36. Huntley, B., Green, R.E., Collingham, Y.C., Hill, J.K., Willis, S.G., Bartlein, P.J., Cramer, W., Hagemeijer, W.J.M. Thomas, C.J. (2004) The performance of models relating species' geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level. Ecology Letters, 7, 417 426. (Pubitemid 38673699)
37. Huntley, B., Collingham, Y.C., Green, R.E., Hilton, G.M., Rahbek, C. Willis, S.G. (2006) Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds. Ibis, 148, 8 28.
38. Huntley, B., Green, R.E., Collingham, Y.C. Willis, S.G. (2007) A climatic atlas of European breeding birds. Lynx Editions, Barcelona.
39. Huntley, B., Collingham, Y.C., Willis, S.G. Green, R.E. (2008) Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds. PLoS ONE, 3, e1439.
40. Jansen, E., Overpeck, J., Briffa, K.R., Duplessy, J.-C., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, V., Olago, D., Otto-Bliesner, B., Peltier, W.R., Rahmstorf, S., Ramesh, R., Raynaud, D., Rind, D., Solomina, O., Villalba, R. Zhang, D.E. (2007) Palaeoclimate. Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor H.L. Miller pp. 433 497. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
41. Jenni, L. Kéry, M. (2003) Timing of autumn bird migration under climate change: advances in long-distance migrants, delays in short-distance migrants. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 270, 1467 1471. (Pubitemid 36857089)
42. Jetz, W., Wilcove, D.S. Dobson, A.P. (2007) Projected impacts of climate and land-use change on the global diversity of birds. PLoS Biology, 5, 1211 1219. (Pubitemid 46919943)
43. Jones, P., Vickery, J., Holt, S. Cresswell, W. (1996) A preliminary assessment of some factors influencing the density and distribution of Palaearctic passerine migrants wintering in the Sahel zone of West Africa. Bird Study, 43, 73 84. (Pubitemid 27017517)
44. Jonzén, N., Hedenström, A., Hjort, C., Lindström, å., Lundberg, P. Andersson, A. (2002) Climate patterns and the stochastic dynamics of migratory birds. Oikos, 97, 329 336.
45. Kelly, J.F., Atudorei, V., Sharp, Z.D. Finch, D.M. (2002) Insights into Wilson's Warbler migration from analyses of hydrogen stable-isotope ratios. Oecologia, 130, 216 221. (Pubitemid 36064478)
46. Lack, P. (1986) The atlas of wintering birds in Britain and Ireland. T & A.D Poyser, Calton.
47. Lemoine, N. Böhning-Gaese, K. (2003) Potential impact of global climate change on species richness of long-distance migrants. Conservation Biology, 17, 577 586. (Pubitemid 37084072)
48. Markovets, M. Yosef, R. (2005) Phenology, duration, and site fidelity of wintering bluethroat (Luscinia svecica) at Eilat, Israel. Journal of Arid Environments, 61, 93 100. (Pubitemid 39623073)
49. Marra, P.P., Francis, C.M., Mulvihill, R.S. Moore, F.R. (2005) The influence of climate on the timing and rate of spring bird migration. Oecologia, 142, 307 315. (Pubitemid 40171996)
50. Martínez-Meyer, E., Peterson, A.T. Navarro-Siguenza, A.G. (2004) Evolution of seasonal ecological niches in the Passerina buntings (Aves: Cardinalidae). Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 271, 1151 1157. (Pubitemid 38736847)
51. Meehl, G.A., Stocker, T.F., Collins, W.D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A.T., Gregory, J.M., Kitoh, A., Knutti, R., Murphy, J.M., Noda, A., Raper, S.C.B., Watterson, I.G., Weaver, A.J. Zhao, Z.-C. (2007) Global climate projections. Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor H.L. Miller pp. 747 845. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
52. Mila, B., Smith, T.B. Wayne, R.K. (2006) Postglacial population expansion drives the evolution of long-distance migration in a songbird. Evolution, 60, 2403 2409.
53. Mitchell, T.D., Carter, T.R., Jones, P.D., Hulme, M. New, M. (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). Working Paper 55. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich.
54. Nakicenovic, N. Swart, R. (2000) Emissions scenarios. Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
55. New, M., Hulme, M. Jones, P. (1999) Representing twentieth-century space-time climate variability. Part l: Development of a 1961-90 mean monthly terrestrial climatology. Journal of Climate, 12, 829 856. (Pubitemid 29348011)
56. Olsson, L., Eklundh, L. Ardö, J. (2005) A recent greening of the Sahel - trends, patterns and potential causes. Journal of Arid Environments, 63, 556 566. (Pubitemid 40984987)
57. Parmesan, C. Yohe, G. (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature, 421, 37 42. (Pubitemid 36077078)
58. Prentice, I.C., Cramer, W., Harrison, S.P., Leemans, R., Monserud, R.A. Solomon, A.M. (1992) A global biome model based on plant physiology and dominance, soil properties and climate. Journal of Biogeography, 19, 117 134. (Pubitemid 23396200)
59. R Development Core Team (2006) R: a language and environment for statistical computing, 2.4.1. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
60. Robinson, R.A., Learmonth, J.A., Hutson, A.M., Macleod, C.D., Sparks, T.H., Leech, D.I., Pierce, G.J., Rehfisch, M.M. Crick, H.Q.P. (2005) Climate change and migratory species. Report 414. British Trust for Ornithology, Thetford.
61. Robinson, R.A., Crick, H.Q.P., Learmonth, J.A., Maclean, I.M.D., Thomas, C.D., Bairlein, F., Forchhammer, M.C., Francis, C.M., Gill, J.A., Godley, B.J., Harwood, J., Hays, G.C., Huntley, B., Hutson, A.M., Pierce, G.J., Rehfisch, M.M., Sims, D.W., Santos, M.B., Sparks, T.H., Stroud, D.A. Visser, M.E 2008) Travelling through a warming world - climate change and migratory species. Endangered Species Research, doi :.
62. Roeckner, E., Oberhuber, J.M., Bacher, A., Christoph, M. Kirchner, I. (1996) ENSO variability and atmospheric response in a global coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. Climate Dynamics, 12, 737 754. (Pubitemid 27502286)
63. Ruegg, K.C. Smith, T.B. (2002) Not as the crow flies: a historical explanation for circuitous migration in Swainson's thrush (Catharus ustulatus). Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 269, 1375 1381. (Pubitemid 34753671)
64. Ruegg, K.C., Hijmans, R.J. Moritz, C. (2006) Climate change and the origin of migratory pathways in the Swainson's thrush, Catharus ustulatus. Journal of Biogeography, 33, 1172 1182. (Pubitemid 43876164)
65. Saino, N., Szép, T., Ambrosini, R., Romano, M. Møller, A.P. (2004a) Ecological conditions during winter affect sexual selection and breeding in a migratory bird. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 271, 681 686. (Pubitemid 38437936)
66. Saino, N., Szép, T., Romano, M., Rubolini, D., Spina, F. Møller, A.P. (2004b) Ecological conditions during winter predict arrival date at the breeding quarters in a trans-Saharan migratory bird. Ecology Letters, 7, 21 25. (Pubitemid 38154316)
67. Sanderson, F.J., Donald, P.F., Pain, D.J., Burfield, I.J. van Bommel, F.P.J. (2006) Long-term population declines in Afro-Palaearctic migrant birds. Biological Conservation, 131, 93 105. (Pubitemid 44304418)
68. Schwartz, M.W., Iverson, L.R., Prasad, A.M., Matthews, S.N. O'Connor, R.J. (2006) Predicting extinctions as a result of climate change. Ecology, 87, 1611 1615. (Pubitemid 44141540)
69. Shirihai, H., Gargallo, G. Helbig, A.J. (2001) Sylvia warblers: identification, taxonomy and phylogeny of the genus Sylvia. Christopher Helm Publishers Ltd, London.
70. Snow, D.W. Perrins, C.M. (1998) The birds of the Western Palaearctic, concise edn. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
71. Sutherland, W.J. (1998) Evidence for flexibility and constraint in migration systems. Journal of Avian Biology, 29, 441 446. (Pubitemid 29064568)
72. Swets, J.A. (1988) Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science, 240, 1285 1293. (Pubitemid 18155908)
73. Sykes, M.T. (1997) The biogeographic consequences of forecast changes in the global environment: individual species' potential range changes. Past and future rapid environmental changes: the spatial and evolutionary responses of terrestrial biota, NATO ASI Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 47 (ed. by B. Huntley, W. Cramer, A.V. Morgan, H.C. Prentice J.R.M. Allen pp. 427 440. Springer-Verlag, Berlin.
74. Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., de Siqeira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. Williams, S.E. (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature, 427, 145 148. (Pubitemid 38094953)
75. Thuiller, W. (2003) BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distributions and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biology, 9, 1353 1362. (Pubitemid 37353908)
76. Thuiller, W., Broennimann, O., Hughes, G., Alkemade, J.R.M., Midgley, G.F. Corsi, F. (2006) Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions. Global Change Biology, 12, 424 440.
77. Walther, G.R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T.J.C., Fromentin, J.M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Bairlein, F. (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature, 416, 389 395. (Pubitemid 34272866)
78. Walther, B.A., Schaffer, N., Van Niekerk, A., Thuiller, W., Rahbek, C. Chown, S.L. (2007) Modelling the winter distribution of a rare and endangered migrant, the aquatic warbler Acrocephalus paludicola. Ibis, 149, 701 714. (Pubitemid 47556448)
79. Williams, P.H., Hannah, L., Andelman, S., Midgley, G.F., Araújo, M.B., Hughes, G., Manne, L., Martínez-Meyer, E. Pearson, R.G. (2005) Planning for climate change: identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape Proteaceae. Conservation Biology, 19, 1063 1074. (Pubitemid 41672819)
80. Zalakevicius, M., Bartkeviciene, G., Raudonikis, L. Janulaitis, J. (2006) Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe. Journal of Ornithology, 147, 326 343.