메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 35, Issue 4, 2011, Pages 682-711

Source Reliability and the Conjunction Fallacy

Author keywords

Bayesian models; Conjunction fallacy; Source reliability; Subjective probability

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; ASSOCIATION; BAYES THEOREM; DECISION MAKING; HUMAN; LINGUISTICS; PROBABILITY; PROBLEM SOLVING; REPRODUCIBILITY; SEMANTICS; THEORETICAL MODEL;

EID: 79955888316     PISSN: 03640213     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1551-6709.2011.01170.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (30)

References (56)
  • 2
    • 38249023912 scopus 로고
    • Suppressing natural heuristics by formal instruction: The case of the conjunction fallacy
    • Agnoli, F., & Krantz, D. H. (1989). Suppressing natural heuristics by formal instruction: The case of the conjunction fallacy. Cognitive Psychology, 21, 515-550.
    • (1989) Cognitive Psychology , vol.21 , pp. 515-550
    • Agnoli, F.1    Krantz, D.H.2
  • 3
    • 85050175249 scopus 로고
    • The intractable conjunction fallacy: Statistical sophistication, instructional set, and training
    • Benassi, V. A., & Knoth, R. L. (1993). The intractable conjunction fallacy: Statistical sophistication, instructional set, and training. Journal of Social Behavior and Personality, 8, 83-96.
    • (1993) Journal of Social Behavior and Personality , vol.8 , pp. 83-96
    • Benassi, V.A.1    Knoth, R.L.2
  • 4
    • 77956721407 scopus 로고
    • Theories of bias in probability judgment
    • In J. P. Caverni, J. M. Fabre, amp; M. Gonzalez (Eds.) Oxford, England: North-Holland.
    • Birnbaum, M. H., Anderson, C. J., & Hynan, L. G. (1990). Theories of bias in probability judgment. In J. P. Caverni, J. M. Fabre, & M. Gonzalez (Eds.), Cognitive biases (pp. 477-498). Oxford, England: North-Holland.
    • (1990) Cognitive biases , pp. 477-498
    • Birnbaum, M.H.1    Anderson, C.J.2    Hynan, L.G.3
  • 5
    • 0002760259 scopus 로고
    • Source credibility in social judgment: Bias, expertise and the judge's point of view
    • Birnbaum, M. H., & Stegner, S. E. (1979). Source credibility in social judgment: Bias, expertise and the judge's point of view. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 48-74.
    • (1979) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.37 , pp. 48-74
    • Birnbaum, M.H.1    Stegner, S.E.2
  • 7
    • 0028399230 scopus 로고
    • Heuristic processing can bias systematic processing: Effects of source credibility, argument ambiguity, and task importance on attitude judgment
    • Chaiken, S., & Maheswaran, D. (1994). Heuristic processing can bias systematic processing: Effects of source credibility, argument ambiguity, and task importance on attitude judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 66, 460-473.
    • (1994) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.66 , pp. 460-473
    • Chaiken, S.1    Maheswaran, D.2
  • 9
    • 43149125835 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy
    • Crupi, V., Fitelson, B., & Tentori, K. (2008). Probability, confirmation, and the conjunction fallacy. Thinking and Reasoning, 14, 182-199.
    • (2008) Thinking and Reasoning , vol.14 , pp. 182-199
    • Crupi, V.1    Fitelson, B.2    Tentori, K.3
  • 10
    • 0030615338 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The difficulty of the Linda conjunction problem can be attributed to its simultaneous concrete and abstract representation, and not to conversational implicature
    • Donovan, S., & Epstein, S. (1997). The difficulty of the Linda conjunction problem can be attributed to its simultaneous concrete and abstract representation, and not to conversational implicature. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 33, 1-20.
    • (1997) Journal of Experimental Social Psychology , vol.33 , pp. 1-20
    • Donovan, S.1    Epstein, S.2
  • 11
    • 84930565354 scopus 로고
    • Conversational implicature, conscious representation, and the conjunction fallacy
    • Dulany, D. E., & Hilton, D. J. (1991). Conversational implicature, conscious representation, and the conjunction fallacy. Social Cognition, 9, 85-110.
    • (1991) Social Cognition , vol.9 , pp. 85-110
    • Dulany, D.E.1    Hilton, D.J.2
  • 13
    • 21344436106 scopus 로고
    • The Linda problem revisited from the perspective of cognitive-experiential self-theory
    • Epstein, S., Denesraj, V., & Pacini, R. (1995). The Linda problem revisited from the perspective of cognitive-experiential self-theory. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 21, 1124-1138.
    • (1995) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.21 , pp. 1124-1138
    • Epstein, S.1    Denesraj, V.2    Pacini, R.3
  • 15
    • 0036877601 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgments under uncertainty: Representativeness or potential surprise?
    • Fisk, J. E. (2002). Judgments under uncertainty: Representativeness or potential surprise? British Journal of Psychology, 93, 431-449.
    • (2002) British Journal of Psychology , vol.93 , pp. 431-449
    • Fisk, J.E.1
  • 17
    • 0011617246 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Component probabilities and the conjunction fallacy: Resolving signed summation and the low component model in a contingent approach
    • Fisk, J. E., & Pidgeon, N. (1996). Component probabilities and the conjunction fallacy: Resolving signed summation and the low component model in a contingent approach. Acta Psychologica, 94, 1-20.
    • (1996) Acta Psychologica , vol.94 , pp. 1-20
    • Fisk, J.E.1    Pidgeon, N.2
  • 18
    • 0032391455 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conditional probabilities, potential surprise, and the conjunction fallacy
    • Fisk, J. E., & Pidgeon, N. (1998). Conditional probabilities, potential surprise, and the conjunction fallacy. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 51A, 655-681.
    • (1998) Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.51 , pp. 655-681
    • Fisk, J.E.1    Pidgeon, N.2
  • 19
    • 65349135286 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The importance of proving the null
    • Gallistel, C. R. (2009). The importance of proving the null. Psychological Review, 116, 439-453.
    • (2009) Psychological Review , vol.116 , pp. 439-453
    • Gallistel, C.R.1
  • 21
    • 0000714472 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A rebuttal to Kahneman and Tversky (1996)
    • Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A rebuttal to Kahneman and Tversky (1996). Psychological Review, 103, 592-596.
    • (1996) Psychological Review , vol.103 , pp. 592-596
    • Gigerenzer, G.1
  • 22
    • 79955887092 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Argument content and argument source: An exploration
    • Hahn, U., Harris, A. J. L., & Corner, A. J. (2009). Argument content and argument source: An exploration. Informal Logic, 29, 337-367.
    • (2009) Informal Logic , vol.29 , pp. 337-367
    • Hahn, U.1    Harris, A.J.L.2    Corner, A.J.3
  • 24
    • 83355162376 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Walter the banker: The conjunction fallacy reconsidered
    • Hartmann, S., & Meijs, W. (2009). Walter the banker: The conjunction fallacy reconsidered. Synthese. DOI .
    • (2009) Synthese
    • Hartmann, S.1    Meijs, W.2
  • 25
    • 51249108858 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conjunction fallacy and the many meanings of and
    • Hertwig, R., Benz, B., & Krauss, S. (2008). The conjunction fallacy and the many meanings of and. Cognition, 108, 740-753.
    • (2008) Cognition , vol.108 , pp. 740-753
    • Hertwig, R.1    Benz, B.2    Krauss, S.3
  • 26
    • 22844456018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The 'conjunction fallacy' revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors
    • Hertwig, R., & Gigerenzer, G. (1999). The 'conjunction fallacy' revisited: How intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12, 275-305.
    • (1999) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.12 , pp. 275-305
    • Hertwig, R.1    Gigerenzer, G.2
  • 27
    • 84155169467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Unreliable sources and the conjunction fallacy
    • In N.A. Taatgen & H. van Rijn (Eds.) Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
    • Jarvstad, A., & Hahn, U. (2009). Unreliable sources and the conjunction fallacy. In N. A. Taatgen & H. van Rijn (Eds.), Proceedings of the 31st annual conference of the cognitive science society (pp. 3034-3039). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Society.
    • (2009) Proceedings of the 31st annual conference of the cognitive science society , pp. 3034-3039
    • Jarvstad, A.1    Hahn, U.2
  • 28
    • 0003414592 scopus 로고
    • 3rd Ed. Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, Clarendon Press.
    • Jeffreys, H. (1961). Theory of probability (3rd Ed.). Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, Clarendon Press.
    • (1961) Theory of probability
    • Jeffreys, H.1
  • 29
    • 0013305901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment
    • In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, amp; D. Kahneman (Eds.) New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • Kahneman, D., & Frederick, S. (2002). Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 49-81). New York: Cambridge University Press.
    • (2002) Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment , pp. 49-81
    • Kahneman, D.1    Frederick, S.2
  • 30
    • 6344290317 scopus 로고
    • Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
    • In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, amp; A. Tversky (Eds.) Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
    • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 33-47). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 33-47
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 32
    • 0033465370 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Persuasion by a single route: A view from the unimodel
    • Kruglanski, A. W., & Thompson, E. P. (1999). Persuasion by a single route: A view from the unimodel. Psychological Inquiry, 10, 83-109.
    • (1999) Psychological Inquiry , vol.10 , pp. 83-109
    • Kruglanski, A.W.1    Thompson, E.P.2
  • 33
    • 23844530547 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian statistical inference in psychology: Comment on Trafimow (2003)
    • Lee, M. D., & Wagenmakers, E.-J. (2005). Bayesian statistical inference in psychology: Comment on Trafimow (2003). Psychological Review, 112, 662-668.
    • (2005) Psychological Review , vol.112 , pp. 662-668
    • Lee, M.D.1    Wagenmakers, E.-J.2
  • 35
    • 0028064596 scopus 로고
    • A pattern recognition account of decision making
    • Massaro, D. W. (1994). A pattern recognition account of decision making. Memory & Cognition, 22, 616-627.
    • (1994) Memory & Cognition , vol.22 , pp. 616-627
    • Massaro, D.W.1
  • 36
    • 4444376563 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explaining purportedly irrational behavior by modeling scepticism in task parameters: An example examining confidence in forced-choice tasks
    • McKenzie, C. R. M., Wixted, J. T., & Noelle, D. C. (2004). Explaining purportedly irrational behavior by modeling scepticism in task parameters: An example examining confidence in forced-choice tasks. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 30, 947-959.
    • (2004) Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition , vol.30 , pp. 947-959
    • McKenzie, C.R.M.1    Wixted, J.T.2    Noelle, D.C.3
  • 37
    • 55549087558 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exploring the conjunction fallacy within a category learning framework
    • Nilsson, H. (2008). Exploring the conjunction fallacy within a category learning framework. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21, 471-490.
    • (2008) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.21 , pp. 471-490
    • Nilsson, H.1
  • 39
    • 1542380758 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The persuasiveness of source credibility: A critical review of five decades' evidence
    • Pornpitakpan, C. (2004). The persuasiveness of source credibility: A critical review of five decades' evidence. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 34, 243-281.
    • (2004) Journal of Applied Social Psychology , vol.34 , pp. 243-281
    • Pornpitakpan, C.1
  • 40
    • 0034168516 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing
    • Roberts, S., & Pashler, H. (2000). How persuasive is a good fit? A comment on theory testing. Psychological Review, 107, 358-367.
    • (2000) Psychological Review , vol.107 , pp. 358-367
    • Roberts, S.1    Pashler, H.2
  • 42
    • 49149133782 scopus 로고
    • Sorting out the effects of witness sensitivity and response-criterion placement upon the inferential value of testimonial evidence
    • Schum, D. A. (1981). Sorting out the effects of witness sensitivity and response-criterion placement upon the inferential value of testimonial evidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 27, 153-196.
    • (1981) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.27 , pp. 153-196
    • Schum, D.A.1
  • 45
    • 42949092626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability
    • Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2008). On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 94, 672-695.
    • (2008) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.94 , pp. 672-695
    • Stanovich, K.E.1    West, R.F.2
  • 46
    • 0030120017 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conjunction fallacy: Differential incidence as a function of descriptive frames and educational context
    • Stolarz-Fantino, S., Fantino, E., & Kulik, J. (1996). The conjunction fallacy: Differential incidence as a function of descriptive frames and educational context. Contemporary Educational Psychology, 21, 208-218.
    • (1996) Contemporary Educational Psychology , vol.21 , pp. 208-218
    • Stolarz-Fantino, S.1    Fantino, E.2    Kulik, J.3
  • 48
    • 21344469636 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linda versus world cup: Conjunctive probabilities in three-event fictional and real-life predictions
    • Teigen, K. H., Martinussen, M., & Lund, T. (1996a). Linda versus world cup: Conjunctive probabilities in three-event fictional and real-life predictions. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 9, 77-93.
    • (1996) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.9 , pp. 77-93
    • Teigen, K.H.1    Martinussen, M.2    Lund, T.3
  • 49
    • 0042045944 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Conjunction errors in the prediction of referendum outcomes: Effects of attitude and realism
    • Teigen, K. H., Martinussen, M., & Lund, T. (1996b). Conjunction errors in the prediction of referendum outcomes: Effects of attitude and realism. Acta Psychologica, 93, 91-105.
    • (1996) Acta Psychologica , vol.93 , pp. 91-105
    • Teigen, K.H.1    Martinussen, M.2    Lund, T.3
  • 50
    • 2442644158 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction?
    • Tentori, K., Bonini, N., & Osherson, D. (2004). The conjunction fallacy: A misunderstanding about conjunction? Cognitive Science, 28, 467-477.
    • (2004) Cognitive Science , vol.28 , pp. 467-477
    • Tentori, K.1    Bonini, N.2    Osherson, D.3
  • 51
    • 0002931074 scopus 로고
    • Judgments of and by representativeness
    • In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, amp; A. Tversky (Eds.) Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1982). Judgments of and by representativeness. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 84-98). Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 84-98
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 52
    • 43249084062 scopus 로고
    • Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment
    • Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90, 293-315.
    • (1983) Psychological Review , vol.90 , pp. 293-315
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 53
    • 40649106717 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing boundary conditions for the conjunction fallacy: Effects of response mode, conceptual focus, and problem type
    • Wedell, D. H., & Moro, R. (2008). Testing boundary conditions for the conjunction fallacy: Effects of response mode, conceptual focus, and problem type. Cognition, 107, 105-136.
    • (2008) Cognition , vol.107 , pp. 105-136
    • Wedell, D.H.1    Moro, R.2
  • 55
    • 0010211642 scopus 로고
    • The quantitative prediction of belief and opinion change: A further test of a subjective probability model
    • Wyer Jr., R. S. (1970). The quantitative prediction of belief and opinion change: A further test of a subjective probability model. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 16, 559-571.
    • (1970) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.16 , pp. 559-571
    • Wyer Jr, R.S.1
  • 56
    • 0041889211 scopus 로고
    • An investigation of the relations among probability estimates
    • Wyer Jr., R. S. (1976). An investigation of the relations among probability estimates. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 15, 1-18.
    • (1976) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.15 , pp. 1-18
    • Wyer Jr, R.S.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.