On the origin of planetary-scale extratropical winter circulation regimes

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 67, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 1382-1401

  Hannachi, A ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Extratropics; North Atlantic Oscillation; Pacific North American pattern; Planetary waves; Winter cool season

Indexed keywords

BLOCKING FLOW; CO-OCCURRENCE; DATA SETS; EMPIRICAL ORTHOGONAL FUNCTION; EXTRATROPICAL; EXTRATROPICS; HEIGHT FIELDS; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; MIXTURE PROPORTIONS; MULTIVARIATE GAUSSIAN MIXTURE MODEL; NORTH AMERICAN; NORTH ATLANTIC; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATIONS; NORTH PACIFIC; NORTHERN HEMISPHERES; NUMBER OF COMPONENTS; ORDER STATISTICS; PACIFIC SECTOR; PACIFIC-NORTH AMERICA; PLANETARY WAVES; REGIME ANALYSIS; REPRODUCIBILITIES; SPATIAL CLUSTERING; STATE SPACE; SYSTEM STATE; WINTER CIRCULATION;

ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURE; CLUSTERING ALGORITHMS; FLIGHT DYNAMICS; FOURIER ANALYSIS; ORTHOGONAL FUNCTIONS;

OCEANOGRAPHY;

ALGORITHM; ANNUAL VARIATION; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; EXTRATROPICAL ENVIRONMENT; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PLANETARY WAVE;

EID: 77955583789     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2009JAS3296.1     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Ambrizzi, T., and B.J. Hoskins, 1997: Stationary Rossby-wave propagation in a baroclinic atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 919-928.
2. Berggren, R., B. Bolin, and C.-G. Rossby, 1949: An aerological study of zonal motion, its perturbation and break-down. Tellus, 1, 14-37.
3. Berner, J., and G. Branstator, 2007: Linear and nonlinear signatures in the planetary wave dynamics of an atmospheric general circulation model: Probability density function. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 117-136.
4. Branstator, G., 1987: A striking example of the atmosphere's leading traveling pattern. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2310-2323.
5. Branstator, G., and J. Berner, 2005: Linear and nonlinear signatures in the planetary wave dynamics of an AGCM: Phase space tendencies. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1792-1811.
6. Branstator, G., and F. Selten, 2009: "Modes of variability" and climate change. J. Atmos. Sci., 22, 2639-2658.
7. Charney, J.G., and J.G. DeVore, 1979: Multiple flow equilibria in the atmosphere and blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1205-1216.
8. Charney, J.G., J. Shukla, and K.C. Mo, 1981: Comparison of a barotropic blocking theory with observation. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 762-799.
9. Cheng, X., and J.M. Wallace, 1993: Cluster analysis of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime 500-hPa height field: Spatial patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2674-2696.
10. Christiansen, B., 2002: Comment on "True versus apparent arctic oscillation." Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2150, doi:10.1029/2002GL016051.
11. Christiansen, B., 2005: Bimodality of the planetary-scale atmospheric wave amplitude index. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 2528-2541.
12. Christiansen, B., 2007: Atmospheric circulation regimes: Can cluster analysis provide the number? J. Climate, 20, 2229-2250.
13. Christiansen, B., 2009: Is the atmosphere interesting? A projection pursuit study of the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Climate, 22, 1239-1254.
14. Corti, S., F. Molteni, and T.N. Palmer, 1999: Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes. Nature, 398, 799-802.
15. Crommelin, D.T., 2004: Observed nondiffusive dynamics in largescale atmospheric flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2384-2396.
16. Diggle, P.J., 1983: Statistical Analysis of Spatial Point Patterns. Academic Press, 148 pp.
17. Dole, R.M., and N.M. Gordon, 1983: Persistent anomalies of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation: Geographical distribution and regional persistence characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1567-1587.
18. Duane, G.S., 1997: Synchronized chaos in extended systems and meteorological teleconnections. Phys. Rev. E, 56, 6475-6493.
19. Duane, G.S., and J.J. Tribbia, 2001: Synchronized chaos in geophysical fluid dynamics. Phys. Rev. Lett., 86, 4298-4301.
20. Duane, G.S., P.J. Webster, and J.B. Weiss, 1999: Co-occurrence of Northern and Southern Hemisphere blocks as partially synchronized chaos. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 4183-4205.
21. Edmon, H.J., Jr., B.J. Hoskins, and M.E. McIntyre, 1980: Eliassen-Palm cross sections for the troposphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2600-2616.
22. Farrell, B.F., and P.J. Ioannou, 1995: Stochastic dynamics of the midlatitude atmospheric jet. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1642-1656.
23. Haines, K., and A. Hannachi, 1995: Weather regimes in the Pacific from a GCM. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2444-2462.
24. Hannachi, A., 1997: Low-frequency variability in a GCM: Threedimensional flow regimes and their dynamics. J. Climate, 10, 1357-1379.
25. Hannachi, A., 1999: Synchronization in chaotic Hamiltonian systems and a geophysical application. Phys. Rev. E, 60, 429-443.
26. Hannachi, A., 2007: Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 3521-3541.
27. Hannachi, A., and A. O'Neill, 2001: Atmospheric multiple equilibria and non-Gaussian behaviour in model simulations. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 939-958.
28. Hannachi, A., I.T. Jolliffe, and D.B. Stephenson, 2007: Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: A review. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1119-1152.
29. Hannachi, A., S. Unkel, N.T. Trendafilov, and I.T. Jolliffe, 2009: Independent component analysis of climate data: A new look at EOF rotation. J. Climate, 22, 2797-2812.
30. Hansen, A.R., and A. Sutera, 1995: The probability density distribution of large-scale atmospheric wave amplitude revisited. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2463-2472.
31. Hoskins, B.J., and T. Ambrizzi, 1993: Rossby wave propagation on a realistic longitudinally varying flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1661-1671.
32. Hoskins, B.J., I.N. James, and G.H. White, 1983: The shape, propagation, and mean-flow interaction of large-scale weather systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 40, 1595-1612.
33. Hsu, C.J., and F. Zwiers, 2001: Climate change in recurrent regimes and modes of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric variability. J. Geophys. Res., 106 (D17), 20 145-20 160.
34. Kageyama, M., F. D'Andrea, G. Ramstein, P.J. Valdes, and R. Vautard, 1999: Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations. Climate Dyn., 15, 773-793.
35. Kimoto, M., and M. Ghil, 1993a: Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter: Part I: Methodology and hemispheric regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2625-2643.
36. Kimoto, M., and M. Ghil, 1993b: Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part II: Sectorial regimes and preferred transitions. J. Atmos. Sci., 16, 2645-2673.
37. Kondrashov, D., K. Ide, and M. Ghil, 2004: Weather regimes and preferred transition paths in a three-level quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 568-587.
38. Koo, S., A.W. Robertson, and M. Ghil, 2002: Multiple regimes and low-frequency oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere's zonal-mean flow. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4596, doi:10.1029/2001JD001353.
39. Lau, N.-C., and M.J. Nath, 1999: Observed and GCM-simulated westward-propagating planetary-scale fluctuations with approximately three-week periods. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2324-2345.
40. Legras, B., and M. Ghil, 1985: Persistent anomalies, blocking, and variations in atmospheric predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 433-471.
41. Lejanäs, H., and R.A. Madden, 1992: Travelling planetary-scale waves and blocking. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2821-2830.
42. Linkin, M.E., and S. Nigam, 2008: The North Pacific Oscillation-west Pacific teleconnection pattern: Mature-phase structure and winter impacts. J. Climate, 21, 1979-1997.
43. Marshal, J.C., and F. Molteni, 1993: Toward a dynamical understanding of planetary-scale flow regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1792-1818.
44. Martinez, W.L., and A.R. Martinez, 2002: Computational Statistics Handbook with MATLAB. Chapman and Hall, 591 pp.
45. Michelangeli, P.-A., R. Vautard, and B. Legras, 1995: Weather regimes: Recurrence and quasi stationarity. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 1237-1256.
46. Mo, K., and M. Ghil, 1988: Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes. J. Geophys. Res., 93D, 10 927-10 952.
47. Molteni, F., and S. Tibaldi, 1990: Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics. II: Consequences for dynamical predictability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 1263-1288.
48. Molteni, F., S. Tibaldi, and T.N. Palmer, 1990: Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics. I: Observational evidence. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 31-67.
49. Monahan, A., L. Pandolfo, and J. Fyfe, 2001: The preferred structure of variability of the northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1019-1022.
50. Nakamura, H., and J.M. Wallace, 1991: On the skewness of lowfrequency fluctuations in the tropospheric circulation during the Northern Hemisphere winter. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 1441-1448.
51. Newman, M., P.D. Sardeshmukh, and C. Penland, 1997: Stochastic forcing of the wintertime extratropical flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 435-455.
52. Newman, M., P.D. Sardeshmukh, C.R. Winkler, and J.S. Whitaker, 2003: A study of subseasonal predictability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 1715-1732.
53. Nigam, S., 2003: Teleconnections. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. J.R. Holton et al., Eds., Academic Press, 2243-2269.
54. Nitsche, G., J.M. Wallace, and C. Kooperberg, 1994: Is there evidence of multiple equilibria in planetary wave amplitude statistics? J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 314-322.
55. Pecora, L.M., and T.L. Carroll, 1990: Synchronization in chaotic systems. Phys. Rev. Lett., 64, 821-824.
56. Pelly, J.L., and B.J. Hoskins, 2003: A new perspective on blocking. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 743-755.
57. Pinto, J.G., M. Reyers, and U. Ulbrich, 2010: The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations. Climate Dyn., in press.
58. Rennert, K.J., and J.M. Wallace, 2009: Cross-frequency coupling, skewness and blocking in the Northern Hemisphere winter circulation. J. Climate, 22, 5650-5666.
59. Rex, D., 1950: Blocking action in the middle troposphere and its effect upon regional climate. I: An aerological study of blocking. Tellus, 2, 196-211.
60. Ripley, B.D., 1976: The second-order analysis of stationary point processes. J. Appl. Probab., 13, 255-266.
61. Rosenblum, M.G., A.S. Pikovsky, and J. Kurths, 1996: Phase synchronization of chaotic oscillators. Phys. Rev. Lett., 76, 1804-1807.
62. Rossby, C.-G., 1940: Planetary flow patterns in the atmosphere. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 66, 68-87.
63. Sardeshmukh, P.D., and P. Sura, 2009: Reconciling non-Gaussian climate statistics with linear dynamics. J. Climate, 22, 1193-1207.
64. Selten, F.M., and G. Branstator, 2004: Preferred regime transition routes and evidence for an unstable periodic orbit in a baroclinic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2267-2282.
65. Silverman, B.W., 1994: Using kernel density estimates to investigate multimodality. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 43B, 97-99.
66. Smyth, P., K. Ide, and M. Ghil, 1999: Multiple regimes in Northern Hemisphere height fields via mixture model clustering. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3704-3723.
67. Solman, S., and C. Menendez, 2003: Weather regimes in the South American sector and neighbouring oceans during winter. Climate Dyn., 21, 91-104.
68. Solman, S., and H. Le Treut, 2006: Climate change in terms of modes of atmospheric variability and circulation regimes over southern South America. Climate Dyn., 26, 835-854.
69. Stephenson, D.B., A. Hannachi, and A. O'Neill, 2004: On the existence of multiple climate regimes. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 130, 583-605.
70. Straus, D.M., S. Corti, and F. Molteni, 2007: Circulation regimes: Chaotic variability versus SST-forced predictability. J. Climate, 20, 2251-2272.
71. Sura, P., M. Newman, C. Penland, and P. Sardeshmukh, 2005: Multiplicative noise and non-Gaussianity: A paradigm for atmospheric regimes? J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 1391-1409.
72. Tatli, H., 2007: Synchronization between the North Sea-Caspian pattern (NCP) and surface air temperatures in NCEP. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1171-1187.
73. Thompson, D.W., and J.M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Climate, 13, 1000-1016.
74. Toth, Z., 1991: Circulation patterns in phase space: A multinormal distribution? Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1501-1511.
75. Vautard, R., and B. Legras, 1988: On the source of midlatitude lowfrequency variability. Part II: Nonlinear equilibration of weather regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 2845-2867.
76. Wallace, J.M., X. Cheng, and D. Sun, 1991: Does low-frequency atmospheric variability exhibit regime-like behavior? Tellus, 43A, 16-26.
77. Whitaker, J.S., and P.D. Sardeshmukh, 1998: A linear theory of extratropical synoptic eddy statistics. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 237-258.
78. Woollings, T., and B. Hoskins, 2008: Simultaneous Atlantic-Pacific blocking and the northern annular mode. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 1635-1646.
79. Woollings, T., B. Hoskins, M. Blackburn, and P. Berrisford, 2008: A new Rossby wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 65, 609-626.
80. Woollings, T., A. Hannachi, B.J. Hoskins, and A.G. Turner, 2010: Aregime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing. J. Climate, 23, 1291-1307.
81. Yin, Z.-Y., 1994: Moisture conditions in the southeastern USA and teleconnection patterns. Int. J. Climatol., 14, 947-967.