Preferred regime transition routes and evidence for an unstable periodic orbit in a baroclinic model

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 61, Issue 18, 2004, Pages 2267-2282

  Selten, Frank M ^a   Branstator, G ^b  

^a ROYAL NETHERLANDS METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KNMI   (Netherlands)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

METEOROLOGY; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SPACE RESEARCH; WAVE PROPAGATION;

BAROCLINIC MODELS; HETEROCLINIC CONNECTIONS; PERIODIC ORBITS; PHASE SPACE STRUCTURES;

ORBITS;

ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS; ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; ATMOSPHERIC MOTION; BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY;

EID: 5444261703     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0469(2004)061<2267:PRTRAE>2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Berner, J., 2003: Detection and stochastic modeling of nonlinear signatures in the geopotential height field of an atmospheric general circulation model. Bonner Meteor. Abhandlungen, 58, 1-156.
2. Branstator, G., 1987: A striking example of the atmosphere's leading traveling pattern. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2310-2323.
3. Branstator, G., and I. Held, 1995: Westward propagating normal modes in the presence of stationary background waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 247-262.
4. Cheng, X., and J. M. Wallace, 1993: Cluster analysis of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime 500-hPa height field: Spatial patterns. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2674-2696.
5. Corti, S., A. Giannini, S. Tibaldi, and F. Molteni, 1997: Patterns of low-frequency variability in a three-level quasi-geostrophic model. Climate Dyn., 13, 883-904.
6. Corti, S., F. Molteni, and T. N. Palmer, 1999: Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes. Nature, 398, 799-802.
7. Crommelin, D. T., 2003: Regime transitions and heteroclinic connections in a barotropic atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 229-246.
8. Crommelin, D. T., 2004: Observed nondiffusive dynamics in large-scale atmospheric flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2384-2396.
9. Crommelin, D. T., J. D. Opsteegh, and F. Verhulst, 2004: A mechanism for atmospheric regime behavior. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1406-1419.
10. Cvitanovic, P., G. H. Gunaratne, and I. Procaccia, 1988: Topological and metric properties of Henon-type strange attractors. Phys. Rev., 38A, 1503-1520.
11. D'Andrea, F., and R. Vautard, 2001: Extratropical low-frequency variability as a low-dimensional problem I: A simplified model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1357-1374.
12. Ghil, M., 1987: Dynamics, statistics and predictability of planetary flow regimes. Irreversible Phenomena and Dynamical Systems Analysis in the Geosciences, C. Nicolis and G. Nicolis, Eds., D. Reidel, 241-283.
13. Ghil, M., and S. Childress, 1987: Topics in Geophysical Fluid Dynamics: Atmospheric Dynamics, Dynamo Theory and Climate Dynamics. Springer-Verlag, 485 pp.
14. Ghil, M., and A. W. Robertson, 2002: "Waves" vs. "particles" in the atmosphere's phase space: A pathway to long-range forecasting? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 99 (Suppl. 1), 2493-2500.
15. Haines, K., and A. Hannachi, 1995: Weather regimes in the Pacific from a GCM. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 2444-2462.
16. Hsu, C. J., and F. Zwiers, 2001: Climate change in recurrent regimes and modes of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric variability. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 20 145-20 159.
17. Kimoto, M., and M. Ghil, 1993a: Multiple flow regimes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Part I: Methodology and hemispheric regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2625-2643.
18. Kimoto, M., and M. Ghil, 1993b: Multiple flow regimes in the Northern-Hemisphere winter. Part II: Sectorial regimes and preferred transitions. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 2645-2673.
19. Kushnir, Y., 1987: Retrograding wintertime low-frequency disturbances over the North Pacific Ocean. J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 2727-2742.
20. Lai, Y.-C., Y. Nagai, and C. Gebrogi, 1997: Characterization of the natural measure by unstable periodic orbits in chaotic attractors. Phys. Rev. Lett., 79, 649-652.
21. Legras, B., and M. Ghil, 1985: Persistent anomalies, blocking and variations in atmospheric predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 433-471.
22. Lorenz, E. N., 1984: Irregularity: A fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus, 36A, 98-110.
23. Marshall, J., and F. Molteni, 1993: Toward a dynamical understanding of planetary-scale flow regimes. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1792-1818.
24. Michelangeli, P., and R. Vautard, 1998: The dynamics of Euro-Atlantic blocking onsets. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 1045-1070.
25. Molteni, F., and S. Corti, 1998: Long-term fluctuations in the statistical properties of low-frequency variability: Dynamical origin and predictability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124, 495-526.
26. Monahan, A. H., J. C. Fyfe, and G. M. Flato, 2000: A regime view of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric variability and change under global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1139-1142.
27. Monahan, A. H., L. Pandolfo, and J. C. Fyfe, 2001: The preferred structure of variability of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1019-1022.
28. Palmer, T. N., 1999: A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction. J. Climate, 12, 575-591.
29. Plaut, G., and R. Vautard, 1994: Spells of low-frequency oscillations and weather regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 210-236.
30. Selten, F. M., R. J. Haarsma, and J. D. Opsteegh, 1999: On the mechanism of North Atlantic decadal variability. J. Climate, 12, 1956-1973.
31. Shil'nikov, A., G. Nichols, and C. Nicolis, 1995: Bifurcation and predictability analysis of a low-order atmospheric circulation model. Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, 5, 1701-1711.
32. Smyth, P., K. Ide, and M. Ghil, 1999: Multiple regimes in Northern Hemisphere height fields via mixture model clustering. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3704-3723.
33. van Veen, L., 2002: Baroclinic flow and the Lorenz-84 model. Int. J. Bifurcation Chaos, 13, doi: 10.1142/S0218127403007904.
34. Vautard, R., 1990: Multiple weather regimes over the North Atlantic: Analysis of precursors and successors. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 2056-2081.
35. Wallace, J. M., and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784-812.
36. Wallace, J. M., and D. W. J. Thompson, 2002: Annular modes and climate prediction. Phys. Today, 55, 28-33.