A study of subseasonal predictability

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 131, Issue 8 PART 1, 2003, Pages 1715-1732

  Newman, Matthew ^a   Sardeshmukh, Prashant D ^a   Winkler, Christopher R ^a   Whitaker, Jeffrey S ^a  

^a EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CORRELATION METHODS; HEATING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SIGNAL TO NOISE RATIO; STATISTICAL METHODS;

LINEAR INVERSE MODELS (LIM);

WEATHER FORECASTING;

PREDICTION; SEASONAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 0141571537     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175//2558.1     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Anderson, J., and H. M. van den Dool, 1994: Skill and return of skill in dynamic extended-range forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 507-516.
2. Anderson, J., H. M. van den Dool, A. Barnston, W. Chen, W. Stern, and J. Ploshay, 1999: Present-day capabilities of numerical and statistical models for atmospheric extratropical seasonal simulation and prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1349-1361.
3. Brankovic, C., and T. N. Palmer, 1997: Atmospheric seasonal predictability and estimates of ensemble size. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 859-874.
4. Branstator, G., A. Mai, and D. Baumhefner, 1993: Identification of highly predictable flow elements for spatial filtering of medium- and extended-range numerical forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 1786-1802.
5. Buizza, R., M. Miller, and T. N. Palmer, 1999: Stochastic representation of model uncertainties in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2887-2908.
6. Cai, M., J. S. Whitaker, R. M. Dole, and K. L. Paine, 1996: Dynamics of systematic errors in the NMC medium range forecast model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 265-276.
7. Caplan, P., J. Derber, W. Gemill, S.-Y. Hong, H.-L. Pan, and D. Parrish, 1997: Changes to the 1995 NCEP operational medium-range forecast model analysis-forecast system. Wea. Forecasting, 12, 581-594.
8. Chen, W. Y., and H. van den Dool, 1999: Significant change of extratropical natural variability and potential predictability associated with the El Nin̄o/Southern Oscillation. Tellus, 51A, 790-802.
9. Chervin, R. M., 1986: Interannual variability and seasonal climate predictability. J. Atmos. Sci., 43, 233-251.
10. Corti, S., and T. N. Palmer, 1997: Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric low-frequency variability. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 2425-2447.
11. DelSole, T., and A. Y. Hou, 1999: Empirical stochastic models for the dominant climate statistics of a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 3436-3456.
12. Farrell, B. F., 1988: Optimal excitation of neutral Rossby waves. J. Atmos. Sci,, 45, 163-172.
13. Fels, S. B., and M. D. Schwarztkopf, 1975: The simplified exchange approximation: A new method for radiative transfer calculations. J. Atmos. Sci., 32, 1475-1488.
14. Ferranti, L., T. N. Palmer, F. Molteni, and E. Klinker, 1990: Tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the 30-60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. J. Atmos. Sci., 47, 2177-2199.
15. Hasselmann, K., 1976: Stochastic climate models. Part I. Theory. Tellus, 28, 474-485.
16. Hendon, H. H., B. Liebmann, M. Newman, and J. D. Glick, 2000: Medium-range forecast errors associated with active episodes of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 69-86.
17. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull. Amer, Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
18. Kleeman, R., 2002: Measuring dynamical prediction utility using relative entropy. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 2057-2072.
19. Klinker, E., 1990: Investigation of systematic errors by relaxation experiments. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor, Soc., 116, 573-594.
20. Kumar, A., M. Hoerling, M. Ji, A. Leetmaa, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1996: Assessing a GCM's suitability for making seasonal predictions. J. Climate, 9, 115-129.
21. Lacarra, J.-E, and O. Talagrand, 1988: Short range evolution of small perturbations in a barotropic model. Tellus, 40A, 81-95.
22. Lacis, A., and J. E. Hansen, 1974: A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the earth's atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 118-133.
23. Leith, C., 1971: Atmospheric predictability and two-dimensional turbulence. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 145-161.
24. Lorenz, E. N., 1982: Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus, 34, 505-513.
25. Madden, R. A., 1976: Estimates of natural variability of time-averaged sea level pressure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 104, 942-952.
26. Newman, M., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1998: The impact of the annual cycle on the North Pacific/North American response to remote low-frequency forcing. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 1336-1353.
27. Newman, M., M. A. Alexander, C. R. Winkler, J. D. Scott, and J. J. Barsugli, 2000: A linear diagnosis of the coupled extratropical ocean atmosphere system in the GFDL GCM. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 1, 14-25.
28. Pan, H.-L., and W.-S. Wu, 1994: Implementing a mass-flux convective parameterization package for the NMC medium range forecast model. Preprints. 10th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Portland, OR, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96-98.
29. Papanicolaou, G., and W. Kohler, 1974: Asymptotic theory of mixing stochastic ordinary differential equations. Commun. Pure Appl. Math., 27, 641-668.
30. Penland, C., 1989: Random forcing and forecasting using principal oscillation pattern analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 2165-2185.
31. Penland, C., 1996: A stochastic model of IndoPacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Physica D, 98, 534-558.
32. Penland, C., and M. Ghil, 1993: Forecasting Northern Hemisphere 700-mb geopotential heights using principal oscillation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev., 121, 2355-2372.
33. Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995: The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024.
34. Qin, J., and W. A. Robinson, 1995: The impact of tropical forcing on extratropical predictability in a simple global model. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3895-3910.
35. Rowell, D. P., 1998: Assessing potential seasonal predictability with an ensemble of multidecadal GCM simulations. J. Climate, 11, 109-120.
36. Sardeshmukh, P. D., 1993: The baroclinic chi problem and its application to the diagnosis of atmospheric heating rates. J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 1099-1112.
37. Sardeshmukh, P. D., and B. J. Hoskins, 1984: Spatial smoothing on the sphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 2524-2529.
38. Sardeshmukh, P. D., and B. J. Hoskins, 1988: The generation of global rotational flow by steady idealized divergence. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1228-1251.
39. Sardeshmukh, P. D., M. Newman, and M. D. Borges, 1997: Free barotropic Rossby wave dynamics of the wintertime low-frequency flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 5-23.
40. Sardeshmukh, P. D., M. Newman, and C. R. Winkler, 1999: Dynamically consistent estimates of diabatic heating. Proc. 24th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, Tucson, AZ, NOAA, 172-175.
41. Sardeshmukh, P. D., G. P. Compo, and C. Penland, 2000: Changes of probability associated with El Niño. J. Climate, 13, 4268-4286.
42. Sardeshmukh, P. D., C. Penland, and M. Newman, 2001: Rossby waves in a fluctuating medium. Stochastic Climate Models, P. Imkeller and J. -S. von Storch, Eds., Progress in Probability, Vol. 49, Birkhaueser, 369-384.
43. Schneider, T., and S. M. Griffies, 1999: A conceptual framework for predictability studies. J. Climate, 12, 3133-3155.
44. Schubert, S., M. J. Suarez, and J.-K. Schemm, 1992: Persistence and predictability in a perfect model. J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 256-269.
45. Shukla, J., and D. S. Gutzler, 1983: Interannual variability and predictability of 500 mb geopotential heights over the Northern Hemisphere. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1273-1279.
46. Slingo, J. M., and Coauthors, 1996: Intraseasonal oscillations in 15 atmospheric general circulation models: Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject. Climate Dyn., 12, 325-357.
47. Smith, L. A., C, Ziehmann, and K. Fraedrich, 1999: Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor, Soc., 125, 2855-2886.
48. Straub, K. H., and G. N. Kiladis, 2002: Observations of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave in the eastern Pacific ITCZ. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 30-53.
49. Tiedtke, M., 1983: The sensitivity of the time-mean large-scale flow to cumulus convection in the ECMWF model. Proc. Workshop on Convection in Large-Scale Models, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 297-316.
50. Troen, I. B., and L. Mahrt, 1986: A simple model of the atmospheric boundary layer: Sensitivity to surface evaporation. Bound.-Layer Meteor., 37, 129-148.
51. van den Dool, H. M., and S. Saha, 1990: Frequency dependence in forecast skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 128-137.
52. Whitaker, J. S., and A. F. Loughe, 1998: The relationship between ensemble spread and ensemble mean skill. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 3292-3302.
53. Winkler, C. R., M. Newman, and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 2001: A linear model of wintertime low-frequency variability. Part I: Formulation and forecast skill. J. Climate, 14, 4474-4494.
54. Wu, W., M. Iredell, S. Saha, and P. Caplan, 1997: Changes to the 1997 NCEP Operational MRF Model Analysis/Forecast System. NCEP Technical Procedures Bulletin 443, 22 pp. [Available online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/tpbpr.shtml, and from Office of Services, NOAA, National Weather Service, 1325 East-West Highway, W/0551. Silver Spring, MD 20910.]
55. Zwiers, F. W., 1987: A potential predictability study conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 2957-2974.