Signature of recent climate change in frequencies of natural atmospheric circulation regimes

Nature

Volumn 398, Issue 6730, 1999, Pages 799-802

  Corti, S ^a   Molteni, F ^a,c   Palmer, T N ^b  

^a CINECA   (Italy)

^b EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

^c ABDUS SALAM INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR THEORETICAL PHYSICS   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE CHANGE; FREQUENCY DEPENDENCE; NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; THERMAL STRUCTURE;

ANALYTIC METHOD; ARTICLE; ATMOSPHERIC DIFFUSION; CLIMATE; FORECASTING; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; METEOROLOGY; MODEL; OSCILLATION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; TEMPERATURE;

EID: 0033614403     PISSN: 00280836     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/19745     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Houghton, J. T. et al. (eds) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1996).
2. Palmer, T. N. A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate change. Weather 48, 313-348 (1993).
3. Palmer, T. N. A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction. J. Clim. 12, 575-591 (1999).
4. Christy, J. R. & McNider, R. T. Satellite greenhouse signal. Nature 367, 325 (1994).
5. Hurrell, J. W. & Trenberth, K. E. Difficulties in obtaining reliable temperature trends: reconciling the surface and satellite microwave sounding units records. J. Clim. 11, 945-967 (1998).
6. Wentz, F. J. & Schabel, M. Effects of orbital decay on satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature trends. Nature 394, 661-664 (1998).
7. Abarbanel, H. D. I., Brown, R. & Kennel, M. B. Variation of Lyapunov exponents on a strange attractor. J. Nonlin. Sci. 1, 175-199 (1991).
8. Lorenz, E. N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci. 20, 130-141 (1963).
9. Kimoto, M. & Ghil, M. Multiple flow regimes in the northern hemisphere winter. Part I: Methodology and hemispheric regimes. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 2625-2643 (1993).
10. Silverman, B. W. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis (Chapman & Hall, New York, 1986).
11. Molteni, F., Tibaldi, S. & Palmer, T. N. Regimes in the wintertime circulation over northern extratropics. I: Observational evidence. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 116, 31-67 (1990).
12. Cheng, X. & Wallace, J. M. Cluster analysis of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime 500-hPa height field: spatial patterns. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 2674-2696 (1993).
13. Wallace, J. M., Zhang, Y. & Bajuk, L. Interpretation of interdecadal trends in Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature. J. Clim. 9, 249-259 (1996).
14. Wallace, J. M. & Gutzler, D. S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter. Mon. Weath. Rev. 109, 784-812 (1981).
15. Palmer, T. N. Medium and extended range predictability, and stability of the PNA mode. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 114, 691-713 (1988).
16. Hurrell, J. W. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperature and precipitation. Science 269, 676-679 (1995).
17. Thompson, D. W. J. & Wallace, J. M. The Arctic Oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 1297-1300 (1998).
18. Renwick, J. A. & Wallace, J. M. Relationships between North Pacific blocking, El Nino and the PNA pattern. Mon. Weath. Rev. 124, 2071-2076 (1996).
19. Molteni, F., Ferranti, L., Palmer, T. N. & Viterbo, P. A dynamical interpretation of the global response to equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. J. Clim. 6, 777-795 (1993).
20. Marshall, J. & Molteni, F. Towards a dynamical understanding of planetary-flow regimes. J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1792-1818 (1993).
21. Farrell, B. F. & Ioannou, P. J. Generalised stability theory: Part II: Nonautonomous systems. J. Atmos. Sci. 53, 2042-2053 (1996).
22. Corti, S. & Palmer, T. N. Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric low-frequency variability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 123, 2425-2447 (1997).
23. Bengtsson, L. & Shukla, J. Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 69, 1130-1143 (1988).
24. Hannachi, A. Low-frequency variability in a GCM: Three-dimensional flow regimes and their dynamics. J. Clim. 10, 1357-1379 (1997).
25. Shindell, D. T., Miller, R. L., Schmidt, G. A. & Pandolfo, L. Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing. Nature (in the press).