Modeling the potential distribution of Bacillus anthracis under multiple climate change scenarios for Kazakhstan

PLoS ONE

Volumn 5, Issue 3, 2010, Pages

  Joyner, Timothy Andrew ^a   Lukhnova, Larissa ^b   Pazilov, Yerlan ^b   Temiralyeva, Gulnara ^b   Hugh Jones, Martin E ^c   Aikimbayev, Alim ^b,d   Blackburn, Jason K ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

^b Masgut Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections of the Ministry of Healthcare of the Republic of Kazakhstan   (Kazakhstan)

^c LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d Republican Sanitary and Epidemiological Station   (Kazakhstan)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANTHRAX VACCINE;

ALGORITHM; ANTHRAX; ARTICLE; BACILLUS ANTHRACIS; BACTERIAL SPORE; CARCASS; CLIMATE CHANGE; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE SURVEILLANCE; GENETIC ALGORITHM; GENETIC ANALYSIS; GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION; INFECTION CONTROL; KAZAKHSTAN; NONHUMAN; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PREDICTIVE VALIDITY; VACCINATION; AREA UNDER THE CURVE; DISASTER PLANNING; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; GEOGRAPHY; METHODOLOGY; MICROBIOLOGY; PHYSIOLOGY; PUBLIC HEALTH; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; REPRODUCIBILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT;

BACILLUS ANTHRACIS; BACTERIA (MICROORGANISMS);

ALGORITHMS; AREA UNDER CURVE; BACILLUS ANTHRACIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; DISASTER PLANNING; ENVIRONMENTAL MICROBIOLOGY; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; GEOGRAPHY; KAZAKHSTAN; PUBLIC HEALTH; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; RISK ASSESSMENT; ROC CURVE;

EID: 77949749434     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0009596     Document Type: Article

References (85)

1. Van Ness GB (1971) Ecology of Anthrax. Science 172(3990): 1303-1307.
2. Gainer RS, Saunders R (1989) Aspects of the epidemiology of anthrax in Wood Buffalo National Park and environs. Canadian Veterinary Journal 30: 953-956.
3. Kaufmann AF (1990) Observations on the occurrence of anthrax as related to soil type and rainfall. Salisbury Medical Bulletin Supplement 68: 16-17.
4. Smith KL, DeVos V, Bryden HB, Hugh-Jones ME, Klevytska A (1999) Mesoscale ecology of anthrax in southern Africa: a pilot study of diversity and clustering. Journal of Applied Microbiology 87(2): 204-207.
5. Smith KL, DeVos V, Bryden H, Price LB, Hugh-Jones ME, et al. (2000) Bacillus anthracis diversity in Kruger National Park. Journal of Clinical Microbiology 38(10): 3780-3784.
6. Shuch R, Fischetti VA (2009) The secret life of the anthrax agent Bacillus anthracis: bacteriophage-mediated ecological adaptations. PLoS ONE 4(8): e6532. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0006532.
7. Hugh-Jones M, Blackburn J (2009) The ecology of Bacillus anthracis. Molecular Aspects of Medicine 30(6): 356-367.
8. Dragon DC, Elkin BT, Nishi JS, Ellsworth TR (1999) A review of anthrax in Canada and implications for research on the disease in northern bison. Journal of Applied Microbiology 87: 208-213.
9. Blackburn JK, McNyset KM, Curtis A, Hugh-Jones ME (2007) Modeling the geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax disease, for the contiguous United States using predictive ecologic niche modeling. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 77(6): 1103-1110.
10. Aikembayev A, Luhknova L, Temiraliyeva G, Meka-Mechenko T, Pazilov Y, et al. (2010) Historical distribution and molecular diversity of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan.Emerging Infectious Diseases. In Press.
11. Woods CW, Ospanov K, Myrzabekov A, Favorov M, Plikaytis B, et al. (2004) Risk factors for human anthrax among contacts of anthrax-infected livestock in Kazakstan. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 71(1): 48-52.
12. Robinson S, Milner-Gulland EJ (2003) Political change and factors limiting numbers of wild and domestic ungulates in Kazakhstan. Human Ecology 31(1): 87-110.
13. Brotons L, Thuiller W, Araujo MB, Hirzel AH (2004) Presence-absence versus presence-only modelling methods for predicting bird habitat suitability. Ecography 27: 437-448.
14. Pearce JL, Boyce MS (2006) Modelling distribution and abundance with presence-only data. Journal of Applied Ecology 43: 405-412.
15. Carlson JK, Cortes E (2003) Gillnet selectivity of small coastal sharks off the southeastern United States. Fisheries Research 60: 405-414.
16. Remson JV, Good DA (1996) Misuse of data from mist-net captures to assess relative abundance in bird populations. Auk 113: 381-398.
17. Parra-Olea G, Martinez-Meyer E, Perez-Ponce de Leon G (2005) Forecasting climate change effects on salamander distribution in the highlands of central Mexico. Biotropica 37(2): 202-208.
18. Peterson AT, Ortega-Huerta MA, Bartley J, Sanchez-Cordero V, Soberon J, et al. (2002) Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios. Nature 416: 626-629.
19. Peterson AT, Ball LG, Cohoon KP (2002) Predicting distributions of Mexican birds using ecological niche modelling methods. Ibis 144: E27-E32.
20. Terribile LC, Diniz-Filho JAF (2009) Spatial patterns of species richness in New World coral snakes and the metabolic theory of ecology. Acta Oecologica 35: 163-173.
21. Wiley EO, McNyset KM, Peterson AT, Robins CR, Stewart AM (2003) Niche modeling and geographic range predictions in the marine environment using a machine-learning algorithm. Oceanography 16(3): 120-127.
22. Adjemian JCZ, Girvetz EH, Beckett L, Foley JE (2006) Analysis of genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP) modeling approach for predicting distributions of fleas implicated as vectors of plague, Yersinia pestis, in California. Journal of Medical Entomology 43: 93-103.
23. Peterson AT, Sanchez-Cordero V, Beard CB, Ramsey JM (2002) Ecologic niche modeling and potential reservoirs for chagas disease, Mexico. Emerging Infectious Diseases 8(7): 662-667.
24. Peterson AT, Shaw JJ (2003) Lutzomyia vectors for cutaneous leishmaniasis in southern Brazil: Ecological niche models, predicted geographic distributions, and climate change effects. International Journal of Parasitology 33: 919-931.
25. Peterson AT, Papes M, Kluza DA (2003) Predicting the potential invasive distributions of four alien plant species in North America.Weed Science 51: 863-868.
26. Peterson AT, Martínez-Campos C, Nakazawa Y, Martínez-Meyer E (2005) Time-specific ecological niche modeling predicts spatial dynamics of vector insects and human dengue cases. Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 99: 647-655.
27. Sweeney AW, Beebe NW, Cooper RD, Bauer JT, Peterson AT (2006) Environmental factors associated with distribution and range limits of malaria vector Anopheles farauti in Australia. Journal of Medical Entomology 43(5): 1068-1075.
28. Ron RS (2005) Predicting the distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in the New World. Biotropica 37: 209-221.
29. Grinell J (1917) The niche-relationships of the California thrasher. The Auk 34: 427-433.
30. Grinell J (1924) Geography and evolution. Ecology 5: 225-229.
31. Hutchinson GE (1957) Concluding Remarks. Coldspring Harbor Symposia Quantitative Biology 22: 415-427.
32. MacArthur RA (1972) Geographical ecology. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
33. Peterson AT, Cohoon KP (1999) Sensitivity of distributional prediction algorithms to geographic data completeness. Ecological Modelling 117: 159-164.
34. Soberon J, Peterson AT (2005) Interpretation of models of fundamental ecological niches and species' distributional areas. Biodiversity Informatics 2: 1-10.
35. Blackburn, K J (2010) Integrating geographic information systems and ecological niche modeling into disease ecology: a case study of Bacillus anthracis in the United States and Mexico. In Skowronski, E. Emerging and Endemic Pathogens: Advances in Surveillance, Detection, and Identification. Science for Peace and Security Series, NATO. In Press.
36. Peterson AT, Soberon J, Sanchez-Cordero V (1999) Conservation of ecological niches in evolutionary time. Science 285: 1265-1267.
37. Atzmanstorfer K, Oberthuer T, Laederach P, O'Brien R, Collet L, et al. (2007) Probability modeling to reduce decision uncertainty in environmental niche indentification and driving factor analysis: CaNaSTA case studies, in: GeoInformation for Development-Bridging the Divide through Partnerships, Zeil P and Kienberger S (eds.), Wichmann Verlag.
38. Huntley B, Green RE, Collingham YC, Hill JK, Willis SG, et al. (2004) The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of tropic level. Ecology Letters 7: 417-426.
39. Pearson RG, Thuiller W, Araujo MB, Martinez-Meyer E, Brotons L, et al. (2006) Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction. Journal of Biogeography 33: 1704-1711.
40. Peterson AT, Sanchez-Cordero V, Soberon J, Bartley J, Buddemeier RW, et al. (2001) Effects of global climate change on geographic distributions of Mexican Cracidae. Ecological Modelling 144: 21-30.
41. Peterson AT (2003) Predicting the geography of species' invasions via ecological niche modeling. The Quarterly Review of Biology 78(4): 419-433.
42. Thuiller W (2004) Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biology 10: 2020-2027.
43. Holt AC, Salkeld DJ, Fritz CL, Tucker JR, Gong P (2009) Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change. International Journal of Health Geographics 8: 38.
44. Davis AJ, Jenkinson LS, Lawton JH, Shorrocks B, Wood S (1998) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391: 783-786.
45. IPCC (2000) Emissions scenarios. A special report of working group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge Unversity Press, Cambridge.
46. Giorgi F, Whetton PH, Jones RG, Christensen JH, Mearns LO, et al. (2001) Emerging patterns of simulated regional climatic changes for the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcings. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 3317-3320.
47. Kimoto M (2005) Simulated change of the East Asian circulation under global warming scenario. Geophysical Research Letters 32, L16701, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023383.
48. Lal M, Harasawa H (2001) Future climate change scenarios for Asia as inferred from selected coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 79(1): 219-227.
49. Rosenzweig C, Karoly D, Vicarelli M, Neofotis P, Wu Q, et al. (2008) Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453: doi:10.1038/nature06937.
50. Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, et al. (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research 111: D05109. doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
51. Baettig MB, Wild M, Imboden DM (2007) A climate change index: where climate change may be most prominent in the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters 34: L01705. doi:10.1029/2006GL028159.
52. Saito K, Cohen J (2003) The potential role of snow cover in forcing interannual variability of the major Northern Hemisphere mode. Geophysical Research Letters 30(6): 1302-1305.
53. Watanabe M, Nitta T (1998) Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the northern hemisphere winter. Journal of Climate 12: 494-510.
54. Ye H, Cho HR, Gustafson PE (1998) The changes in Russian winter snow accumulation during 1936-83 and its spatial patterns. Journal of Climate 11: 856-863.
55. Ye H (2001) Quasi-biennial and quasi-decadal variations in snow accumulation over northern Eurasia and their connections to the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Journal of Climate 14: 4573-4584.
56. Ye H, Ellison M (2003) Changes in transitional snowfall season length in northern Eurasia. Geophysical Research Letters 30(5): 1252-1254.
57. Yu F, Price KP, Ellis J, Peijun S (2003) Response of seasonal vegetation development to climatic variations in eastern central Asia. Remote Sensing of Environment 87: 42-54.
58. Baker BB, Hanson JD, Bourdon RM, Eckert JB (1993) The potential effects of climate change on ecosystem processes and cattle production on U.S. rangelands. Climatic Change 25: 97-117.
59. Bradley NL, Leopold AC, Ross J, Huffaker W (1999) Phenological changes reflect climate change in Wisconsin. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 96: 9701-9704.
60. Turner AJ, Galvin JW, Rubira RJ, Condron RJ, Bradley T (1999) Experiences with vaccination and epidemiological investigations on an anthrax outbreak in Australia in 1997. Journal of Applied Microbiology 87: 294-297.
61. Parkinson R, Rajic A, Jenson C (2003) Investigation of an anthrax outbreak in Alberta in 1999 using a geographic information system. Canadian Veterinary Journal 44: 315-318.
62. McNyset KM (2005) Use of ecological niche modelling to predict distributions of freshwater fish species in Kansas. Ecology of Freshwater Fish 14: 243-255.
63. Nakazawa Y, Williams R, Peterson AT, Mead P, Staples E, et al. (2007) Climate change effects on plague and tularemia in the United States. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases 7(4): 529-540.
64. Dobson A (2004) Population dynamics of pathogens with multiple host species. The American Naturalist 164: S64-S78.
65. Wilson RT (1997) Livestock, pastures, and the environment in the Kyrgyz Republic, central Asia. Mountain Research and Development 17(1): 57-68.
66. Dragon DC, Rennie RP, Elkin BT (2001) Detection of anthrax spores in endemic regions of northern Canada. Journal of Applied Microbiology 91: 435-441.
67. Gates CC, Elkin BT, Dragon DC (1995) Investigation, control and epizootiology of anthrax in a geographically isolated, free-roaming bison population in northern Canada. Canadian Journal of Veterinary Research 59: 256-264.
68. Keim P, Price LB, Kevytska AM, Smith KL, Schupp JM, et al. (2000) Multiplelocus variable-number tandem repeat analysis reveals genetic relationships within Bacillus anthracis. Journal of Bacteriology 182(10): 2928-2936.
69. Stockwell DRB, Peters D (1999) The GARP modelling system: problems and solutions to automated spatial prediction. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 13(2): 143-158.
70. Arnell NW (2004) Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio- economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 14: 31-52.
71. Flato GM, Boer GJ (2001) Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophysical Research Letters 28(1): 195-198.
72. Gordon HB, O'Farrell SP (1997) Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea ice. Monthly Weather Review 125: 875-907.
73. Gordon HB, Rotstayn LD, McGregor JL, Dix MR, Kowalczyk EA, et al. (2002) The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model. CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. 60.
74. Collins M, Tett SFB, Cooper C (2001) The internal climate variability of HadCM3, a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics 17: 61-81.
75. Johns TC, Gregory JM, Ingram WJ, Johnson CE, Jones A, et al. (2003) Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emissions scenarios. Climate Dynamics 20: 583-612.
76. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1965-1978.
77. Earth Systems Research Institute (ESRI) (2007) ArcGIS 9.2. http://www.esri.com/.
78. Anderson RP, Lew D, Peterson AT (2003) Evaluating predictive models of species' distributions: criteria for selecting optimal models. Ecological Modeling 162: 211-232.
79. Stockman AK, Beamer DA, Bond JE (2006) An evaluation of a GARP model as an approach to predicting the spatial distribution of non-vagile invertebrate species. Diversity and Distributions 12: 81-89.
80. Elith J, Graham CH, Anderson RP, Dudik M, Ferrier S, et al. (2006) Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29: 129-151.
81. McNyset KM, Blackburn JK (2006) Does GARP really fail miserably? A response to Stockman et al. (2006). Diversity and Distributions 12: 782-786.
82. Peterson AT, Papes M, Eaton M (2007) Transferability and model evaluation in ecological niche modeling: a comparison of GARP and Maxent. Ecography 30: 550-560.
83. Peterson AT, Papes M, Soberon J (2008) Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling. Ecological Modeling 213: 63-72.
84. Phillips SJ, Dudik M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31: 161-175.
85. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) (2008) SPSS v. 16.0. http://www.spss.com/.