메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 34, Issue 5, 2008, Pages 1027-1042

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment Under Uncertainty

Author keywords

cognitive ability; confidence intervals; individual differences; subjective probability

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; CONCEPT FORMATION; DECISION MAKING; FEMALE; HUMAN; INTUITION; LEARNING; MALE; PROBLEM SOLVING; SHORT TERM MEMORY; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 55049111928     PISSN: 02787393     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/a0012638     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (28)

References (60)
  • 1
    • 12144258837 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Working memory and intelligence: The same or different constructs?
    • Ackerman P.L., Beier M.E., and Boyle M.O. Working memory and intelligence: The same or different constructs?. Psychological Bulletin 131 (2005) 30-60
    • (2005) Psychological Bulletin , vol.131 , pp. 30-60
    • Ackerman, P.L.1    Beier, M.E.2    Boyle, M.O.3
  • 5
    • 0000525030 scopus 로고
    • Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology
    • Brunswik E. Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. Psychological Review 62 (1955) 193-217
    • (1955) Psychological Review , vol.62 , pp. 193-217
    • Brunswik, E.1
  • 6
    • 84981263306 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The magical number 4 in short-term memory: A reconsideration of mental storage capacity
    • Cowan N. The magical number 4 in short-term memory: A reconsideration of mental storage capacity. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 24 (2001) 87-185
    • (2001) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.24 , pp. 87-185
    • Cowan, N.1
  • 7
    • 0030497193 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Age differences in the realism of confidence: A calibration study using tests of fluid and crystallized intelligence
    • Crawford J.D., and Stankov L. Age differences in the realism of confidence: A calibration study using tests of fluid and crystallized intelligence. Learning and Individual Differences 8 (1996) 84-103
    • (1996) Learning and Individual Differences , vol.8 , pp. 84-103
    • Crawford, J.D.1    Stankov, L.2
  • 8
    • 0024827572 scopus 로고
    • Self-monitoring and the association between confidence and accuracy
    • Cutler B.L., and Wolfe R.N. Self-monitoring and the association between confidence and accuracy. Journal of Research in Personality 23 (1989) 410-420
    • (1989) Journal of Research in Personality , vol.23 , pp. 410-420
    • Cutler, B.L.1    Wolfe, R.N.2
  • 9
    • 8644247363 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition
    • Dhami M., Hertwig R., and Hoffrage U. The role of representative design in an ecological approach to cognition. Psychological Bulletin 130 (2004) 959-988
    • (2004) Psychological Bulletin , vol.130 , pp. 959-988
    • Dhami, M.1    Hertwig, R.2    Hoffrage, U.3
  • 10
    • 85047685105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integration of the ecological and error models of overconfidence using a multiple-trace memory model
    • Dougherty M.R.P. Integration of the ecological and error models of overconfidence using a multiple-trace memory model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 130 (2001) 579-599
    • (2001) Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , vol.130 , pp. 579-599
    • Dougherty, M.R.P.1
  • 11
    • 0040736130 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • MINERVA-DM: A memory processes model for judgments of likelihood
    • Dougherty M.R.P., Gettys C.F., and Ogden E.E. MINERVA-DM: A memory processes model for judgments of likelihood. Psychological Review 106 (1999) 180-209
    • (1999) Psychological Review , vol.106 , pp. 180-209
    • Dougherty, M.R.P.1    Gettys, C.F.2    Ogden, E.E.3
  • 12
    • 0038036355 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hypothesis generation, probability judgment, and individual difference in working memory capacity
    • Dougherty M.R.P., and Hunter J.E. Hypothesis generation, probability judgment, and individual difference in working memory capacity. Acta Psychologica 113 (2003) 263-282
    • (2003) Acta Psychologica , vol.113 , pp. 263-282
    • Dougherty, M.R.P.1    Hunter, J.E.2
  • 13
    • 0242299218 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability judgment and subadditivity: The role of working memory capacity and constrained retrieval
    • Dougherty M.R.P., and Hunter J.E. Probability judgment and subadditivity: The role of working memory capacity and constrained retrieval. Memory & Cognition 31 (2003) 968-982
    • (2003) Memory & Cognition , vol.31 , pp. 968-982
    • Dougherty, M.R.P.1    Hunter, J.E.2
  • 15
    • 85047668925 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Logic and human reasoning: An assessment of the deduction paradigm
    • Evans J.S. Logic and human reasoning: An assessment of the deduction paradigm. Psychological Bulletin 128 (2002) 978-996
    • (2002) Psychological Bulletin , vol.128 , pp. 978-996
    • Evans, J.S.1
  • 16
    • 84926096732 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Taking the interface between mind and environment seriously
    • Fiedler K., and Juslin P. (Eds), Cambridge University Press, New York
    • Fiedler K., and Juslin P. Taking the interface between mind and environment seriously. In: Fiedler K., and Juslin P. (Eds). Information sampling and adaptive cognition (2006), Cambridge University Press, New York 3-32
    • (2006) Information sampling and adaptive cognition , pp. 3-32
    • Fiedler, K.1    Juslin, P.2
  • 19
    • 0026234897 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence
    • Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U., and Kleinbolting H. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 98 (1991) 506-528
    • (1991) Psychological Review , vol.98 , pp. 506-528
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2    Kleinbolting, H.3
  • 21
    • 44049114641 scopus 로고
    • The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
    • Griffin D.W., and Tversky A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 24 (1992) 411-435
    • (1992) Cognitive Psychology , vol.24 , pp. 411-435
    • Griffin, D.W.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 22
    • 55049110315 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hansson, P., Rönnlund, M., Juslin, P., & Nilsson, L.-G. (in press). Adult age differences in the realism of confidence judgments: Format dependence, overconfidence, and cognitive predictors. Psychology and Aging
    • Hansson, P., Rönnlund, M., Juslin, P., & Nilsson, L.-G. (in press). Adult age differences in the realism of confidence judgments: Format dependence, overconfidence, and cognitive predictors. Psychology and Aging
  • 24
    • 21744433135 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment
    • Juslin P., Olsson H., and Bjorkman M. Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10 (1997) 189-209
    • (1997) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.10 , pp. 189-209
    • Juslin, P.1    Olsson, H.2    Bjorkman, M.3
  • 25
    • 0036746142 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): A "lazy" algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge
    • Juslin P., and Persson M. PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): A "lazy" algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge. Cognitive Science 26 (2002) 563-607
    • (2002) Cognitive Science , vol.26 , pp. 563-607
    • Juslin, P.1    Persson, M.2
  • 27
    • 34548813857 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals
    • Juslin P., Winman A., and Hansson P. The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals. Psychological Review 114 (2007) 678-703
    • (2007) Psychological Review , vol.114 , pp. 678-703
    • Juslin, P.1    Winman, A.2    Hansson, P.3
  • 28
    • 0034169210 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Naïve empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect
    • Juslin P., Winman A., and Olsson H. Naïve empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect. Psychological Review 107 (2000) 384-396
    • (2000) Psychological Review , vol.107 , pp. 384-396
    • Juslin, P.1    Winman, A.2    Olsson, H.3
  • 29
    • 0347604421 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks
    • Juslin P., Winman A., and Olsson H. Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 92 (2003) 34-51
    • (2003) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.92 , pp. 34-51
    • Juslin, P.1    Winman, A.2    Olsson, H.3
  • 30
    • 0026451760 scopus 로고
    • A capacity theory of comprehension: Individual differences in working memory
    • Just M.A., and Carpenter P.A. A capacity theory of comprehension: Individual differences in working memory. Psychological Review 99 (1992) 122-149
    • (1992) Psychological Review , vol.99 , pp. 122-149
    • Just, M.A.1    Carpenter, P.A.2
  • 32
    • 12144273474 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Working memory capacity and fluid intelligence are strongly related constructs: Comment on Acerman, Beier, and Boyle (2005)
    • Kane M.J., Hambrick D.Z., and Conway A.R. Working memory capacity and fluid intelligence are strongly related constructs: Comment on Acerman, Beier, and Boyle (2005). Psychological Bulletin 131 (2005) 66-71
    • (2005) Psychological Bulletin , vol.131 , pp. 66-71
    • Kane, M.J.1    Hambrick, D.Z.2    Conway, A.R.3
  • 36
    • 0001037403 scopus 로고
    • Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues
    • Keren G. Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica 77 (1991) 217-273
    • (1991) Acta Psychologica , vol.77 , pp. 217-273
    • Keren, G.1
  • 38
    • 0001468160 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecological and person-driven aspects of metacognitive processes in test-taking
    • Kleitman S., and Stankov L. Ecological and person-driven aspects of metacognitive processes in test-taking. Applied Cognitive Psychology 15 (2001) 321-341
    • (2001) Applied Cognitive Psychology , vol.15 , pp. 321-341
    • Kleitman, S.1    Stankov, L.2
  • 40
    • 0002941732 scopus 로고
    • Calibration of subjective probabilities: The state of the art up to 1980
    • Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds), Cambridge University Press, New York
    • Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B., and Phillips L.D. Calibration of subjective probabilities: The state of the art up to 1980. In: Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982), Cambridge University Press, New York 306-334
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases , pp. 306-334
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Fischhoff, B.2    Phillips, L.D.3
  • 41
    • 39749093168 scopus 로고
    • The magical number seven plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information
    • Miller G.A. The magical number seven plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review 63 (1956) 81-97
    • (1956) Psychological Review , vol.63 , pp. 81-97
    • Miller, G.A.1
  • 42
    • 0003212931 scopus 로고
    • A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States
    • Wright G. (Ed), Plenum Press, New York
    • Murphy A.H., and Brown B.G. A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the United States. In: Wright G. (Ed). Behavioral decision making (1985), Plenum Press, New York 329-359
    • (1985) Behavioral decision making , pp. 329-359
    • Murphy, A.H.1    Brown, B.G.2
  • 47
    • 0030079284 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure
    • Soll J.B. Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65 (1996) 117-137
    • (1996) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.65 , pp. 117-137
    • Soll, J.B.1
  • 49
    • 33344467263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Differences between probability and frequency judgments: The role of individual differences in working memory capacity
    • Sprenger A., and Dougherty M.R. Differences between probability and frequency judgments: The role of individual differences in working memory capacity. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 99 (2006) 202-211
    • (2006) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.99 , pp. 202-211
    • Sprenger, A.1    Dougherty, M.R.2
  • 51
    • 0034488449 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
    • Stanovich K.E., and West R.F. Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (2000) 645-726
    • (2000) Behavioral and Brain Sciences , vol.23 , pp. 645-726
    • Stanovich, K.E.1    West, R.F.2
  • 53
    • 0016264378 scopus 로고
    • Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
    • Tversky A., and Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 185 (1974) 1124-1131
    • (1974) Science , vol.185 , pp. 1124-1131
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 54
    • 33846313973 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The nature of individual differences in working memory capacity: Active maintenance in primary memory and controlled search from secondary memory
    • Unsworth N., and Engle R.W. The nature of individual differences in working memory capacity: Active maintenance in primary memory and controlled search from secondary memory. Psychological Review 114 (2007) 104-132
    • (2007) Psychological Review , vol.114 , pp. 104-132
    • Unsworth, N.1    Engle, R.W.2
  • 55
    • 35648992459 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the division of short-term and working memory: An examination of simple and complex span and their relation to higher order abilities
    • Unsworth N., and Engle R.W. On the division of short-term and working memory: An examination of simple and complex span and their relation to higher order abilities. Psychological Bulletin 113 (2007) 1038-1066
    • (2007) Psychological Bulletin , vol.113 , pp. 1038-1066
    • Unsworth, N.1    Engle, R.W.2
  • 57
    • 84985222569 scopus 로고
    • Personality correlates of confidence in one's decisions
    • Wolfe R.N., and Grosch J.W. Personality correlates of confidence in one's decisions. Journal of Personality 58 (1990) 515-534
    • (1990) Journal of Personality , vol.58 , pp. 515-534
    • Wolfe, R.N.1    Grosch, J.W.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.