Adult Age Differences in the Realism of Confidence Judgments: Overconfidence, Format Dependence, and Cognitive Predictors

Psychology and Aging

Volumn 23, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 531-544

  Hansson, Patrik ^a   Rönnlund, Michael ^a   Juslin, Peter ^b   Nilsson, Lars Göran ^c,d  

^a UMEÅ UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^c STOCKHOLM UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^d Stockholm Brain Institute   (Sweden)

Author keywords

adult age difference; cognitive predictors; overconfidence; probability judgment

Indexed keywords

ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; COGNITION; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONTROLLED STUDY; DECISION MAKING; DEPENDENT PERSONALITY DISORDER; FEMALE; GROUPS BY AGE; HUMAN; KNOWLEDGE; MALE; MEMORY; QUESTIONNAIRE; STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING; AGE; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGING; COHORT ANALYSIS; COMPARATIVE STUDY; INDIVIDUALITY; INTUITION; MIDDLE AGED; NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL TEST; PROBABILITY; PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECT; PSYCHOLOGICAL MODEL; SHORT TERM MEMORY;

ADULT; AGE DISTRIBUTION; AGE FACTORS; AGED; AGING; COGNITION; COHORT STUDIES; CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; DEPENDENCY (PSYCHOLOGY); FEMALE; HUMANS; INDIVIDUALITY; INTUITION; JUDGMENT; MALE; MEMORY, SHORT-TERM; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, PSYCHOLOGICAL; NEUROPSYCHOLOGICAL TESTS; PROBABILITY;

EID: 54049124461     PISSN: 08827974     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/a0012782     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. Ackerman P.L., Beier M.E., and Boyle M.O. Working memory and intelligence: The same or different constructs?. Psychological Bulletin 131 (2005) 30-60
2. Alba J.W., and Hutchinson W.J. Knowledge calibration: What consumers know and what they think they know. Journal of Consumers Research 27 (2000) 123-156
3. Arbuckle J.L. Amos 7.0 user's guide (2006), SPSS, Chicago
4. Bäckman L., Small B.J., Wahlin A., and Larsson M. Cognitive functioning in very old age. In: Craik F.I.M., and Salthouse T.A. (Eds). Handbook of cognitive aging 2 (2000), Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ 499-558
5. Baltes P.B. Theoretical propositions of life-span developmental psychology: On the dynamics between growth and decline. Developmental Psychology 23 (1987) 611-626
6. Baltes P.B., Staudinger U.M., and Lindenberger U. Lifespan psychology: Theory and application to cognitive functioning. Annual Review of Psychology 50 (1999) 401-507
7. Bentler P.M., and Mooijaart A. Choice of structural model by parsimony: A rationale based on precision. Psychological Bulletin 106 (1989) 315-317
8. Block R.A., and Harper D.R. Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring and adjustment hypothesis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 49 (1991) 188-207
9. Bopp K.L., and Verhaeghen P. Aging and verbal memory span: A meta-analysis. Psychological Science 60B (2005) 223-233
10. Bruine de Bruin W., Parker A.M., and Fischhoff B. Individual differences in adult decision-making competence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 92 (2007) 938-956
11. Brunswik E. Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology. Psychological Review 62 (1955) 193-217
12. Carroll J.B. Human cognitive abilities: A survey of factor-analytic studies (1993), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England
13. Conway A.R.A., Cowan N., Bunting M.F., Therriault D.J., and Minkoff S.R.B. A latent variable analysis of working memory capacity, short-term memory capacity, processing speed, and general fluid intelligence. Intelligence 30 (2002) 163-183
14. Cowan N. The magical number 4 in short term memory: A reconsideration of mental storage capacity. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 24 (2001) 87-185
15. Craik F.I.M., and Salthouse T.A. Handbook of aging and cognition. 2nd ed. (2000), Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ
16. Crawford J.D., and Stankov L. Age differences in the realism of confidence: A calibration study using tests of fluid and crystallized intelligence. Learning and Individual Differences 8 (1996) 84-103
17. Cutler B.L., and Wolfe R.N. Self-monitoring and the association between confidence and accuracy. Journal of Research in Personality 23 (1989) 410-420
18. de Frias C.M., Lövdén M., Lindenberger U., and Nilsson L.-G. Revisiting the dedifferentiation hypothesis with longitudinal multi-cohort data. Intelligence 35 (2007) 381-392
19. Dureman I. SRB:1 (1960), Psykologiförlaget, Stockholm
20. Engle R.W. Working memory capacity as executive attention. Current Directions in Psychological Science 11 (2002) 19-23
21. Engle R.W., Laughlin J.E., Tuholski S.W., and Conway A.R.A. Working memory, short-term memory, and general fluid intelligence: A latent-variable approach. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 128 (1999) 309-331
22. Erev I., Wallsten T.S., and Budescu D.V. Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. Psychological Review 101 (1994) 519-527
23. Fiedler K., and Juslin P. Taking the interface between mind and environment seriously. In: Fiedler K., and Juslin P. (Eds). Information sampling and adaptive cognition (2006), Cambridge University Press, New York 3-29
24. Finucane M.L., Mertz C.K., Slovic P., and Schmidt E.S. Task complexity and older adults' decision-making competence. Psychology and Aging 20 (2005) 71-84
25. Finucane M.L., Slovic P., Hibbard J., Peters E., Mertz C.K., and MacGregor D.G. Aging and decision-making competence: An analysis of comprehension and consistency skills in older versus younger adults considering health-plan options. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 15 (2002) 141-164
26. Folstein M.F., Folstein S.E., and McHugh P.R. "Mini Mental State": A practical method for grading the mental status of patients for the clinician. Journal of Psychiatry Research 12 (1975) 189-198
27. Forbes D.P. Are some entrepreneurs more overconfident than others?. Journal of Business Venturing 20 (2005) 623-640
28. Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U., and Kleinbolting H. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 98 (1991) 506-528
29. Gilovich T., Griffin D., and Kahneman D. Heuristics and biases: The psychology of intuitive judgment (2002), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England
30. Griffin D.W., and Tversky A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 24 (1992) 411-435
31. Gustafsson J.-E., and Balke G. General and specific abilities as predictors of school achievement. Multivariate Behavioral Research 28 (1993) 407-434
32. Hansson, P., Juslin, P., & Winman, A. (in press). The role of short term memory capacity and task experience for overconfidence in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition
33. Horn J.L., and Hofer S.M. Major abilities and development in the adult period. In: Sternberg R.J., and Berg C.A. (Eds). Intellectual development (1992), Cambridge University Press, New York 44-99
34. Hu L.T., and Bentler P.M. Cutoff criteria for fit indexes in covariance structure analyses: Conventional criteria versus new alternatives. Structural Equation Modeling 6 (1999) 1-55
35. Jensen A.R. The g factor: The science of mental ability (1998), Praeger, Westport, CT
36. Jepson C., Krantz D.H., and Nisbett R.E. Inductive reasoning: Competence or skill?. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 6 (1983) 494-501
37. Johnson M.M.S. Age differences in decision making: A process methodology for examining strategic information processing. Journal of Gerontology: Psychological Sciences 45 (1990) 75-78
38. Juslin P. The overconfidence phenomenon as a consequence of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 57 (1994) 226-246
39. Juslin P., Olsson H., and Björkman M. Brunswikian and Thurstonian origins of bias in probability assessment: On the interpretation of stochastic components of judgment. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10 (1997) 189-209
40. Juslin P., and Persson M. PROBabilities from EXemplars (PROBEX): A "lazy" algorithm for probabilistic inference from generic knowledge. Cognitive Science 26 (2002) 563-607
41. Juslin P., Wennerholm P., and Olsson H. Format dependency in subjective probability calibration. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 28 (1999) 1038-1052
42. Juslin P., Winman A., and Hansson P. The naïve intuitive statistician: A naïve sampling model of intuitive confidence intervals. Psychological Review 114 (2007) 678-703
43. Juslin P., Winman A., and Olsson H. Naïve empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: A critical examination of the hard-easy effect. Psychological Review 107 (2000) 384-396
44. Juslin P., Winman A., and Olsson H. Calibration, additivity, and source independence of probability judgments in general knowledge and sensory discrimination tasks. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 92 (2003) 34-51
45. Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. Judgments under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982), Cambridge University Press, New York
46. Kahneman D., and Tversky A. On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review 103 (1996) 582-591
47. Kareev Y., Arnon S., and Horwitz-Zeliger R. On the misperception of variability. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 131 (2002) 287-297
48. Kaufman A.S. WAIS-III IQs, Horn's theory, and generational changes from young adulthood to old age. Intelligence 29 (2001) 131-167
49. Keren G. Calibration and probability judgments: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica 77 (1991) 217-273
50. Klaczynski P.A., and Robinson B. Personal theories, intellectual ability, and epistemological beliefs: Adult age differences in everyday reasoning biases. Psychology and Aging 15 (2000) 400-416
51. Klayman J., Soll J.B., González-Vallejo C., and Barlas S. Overconfidence: It depends on how, what, and whom you ask. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79 (1999) 216-247
52. Kleitman S., and Stankov L. Ecological and person-driven aspects of metacognitive processes in test-taking. Applied Cognitive Psychology 15 (2001) 321-341
53. Koriat A., Lichtenstein S., and Fischhoff B. Reasons for confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 6 (1980) 17-118
54. Kovalchik S., Camerer C.F., Grether D.M., Plott C.R., and Allman J.M. Aging and decision making: A comparison between neurologically healthy elderly and young individuals. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 58 (2005) 79-94
55. Lövdén M., Ghisletta P., and Lindenberger U. Social participation attenuates decline in perceptual speed in old and very old age. Psychology and Aging 20 (2005) 423-434
56. Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B., and Phillips L.D. Calibration of subjective probabilities: The state of the art up to 1980. In: Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982), Cambridge University Press, New York 306-334
57. Mayhorn C.B., Fisk A.D., and Whittle J.D. Decisions, decisions: Analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky options. Human Factors 44 (2002) 515-521
58. Miyake A., Friedman N.P., Emerson M.J., Witzki A.H., Howerter A., and Wager T.D. The unity and diversity of executive functions and their contributions to complex frontal lobe tasks: A latent variable analysis. Cognitive Psychology 41 (2000) 49-100
59. Murphy A.H., and Winkler R.L. Reliability of subjective probability forecasts of precipitation and temperature. Applied Statistics 26 (1977) 41-47
60. Nilsson L.-G. Aging, dementia, and memory. In: Nilsson L.-G., and Markowitsch H.J. (Eds). Cognitive neuroscience of memory (1999), Hogrefe & Huber, Göttingen, Germany 147-162
61. Nilsson L.-G., Adolsfsson R., Bäckman L., de Frias C.M., Molander B., and Nyberg L. Betula: A prosepctive cohort study on memory, health and aging. Aging, Neuropsychology, and Cognition 11 (2004) 134-148
62. Nilsson L.-G., Bäckman L., Erngrund K., Nyberg L., Adolsfsson R., Bucht G., et al. The Betula prospective cohort study: Memory, health, and aging. Aging, Neuropsychology, and Cognition 4 (1997) 1-32
63. Oberauer K., Schulze R., Wilhelm O., and Süβ H.-M. Working memory and intelligence-Their correlation and their relation. Comment on Ackerman, Beier, and Boyle (2005). Psychological Bulletin 131 (2005) 61-65
64. Park D.C., Lautenschlager G., Hedden T., Davison N., Smith A.D., and Smith P.K. Models of visuospatial and verbal memory across the adult lifespan. Psychology and Aging 17 (2002) 299-320
65. Parker A.M., and Fischhoff B. Decision-making competence: External validation through an individual-differences approach. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 18 (2005) 1-27
66. Perlmutter M. What is memory aging the aging of?. Developmental Psychology 14 (1978) 330-345
67. Peters E., Hess T., Västfjäll D., and Auman C. Adult age differences in dual information processes: Implications for the role of affective and deliberative processes in older adults' decision making. Perspectives on Psychological Science 2 (2007) 1-23
68. Pliske R.M., and Mutter S.A. Age differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments. Experimental Aging Research 22 (1996) 199-216
69. Poulsen O.M., Holst E., and Christensen J.M. Calculation and application of coverage intervals for biological reference values. Pure and Applied Chemistry 69 (1997) 1601-1611
70. Rönnlund M., Karlsson E., Laggnäs E., Larsson L., and Lindström T. Risky decision making across three arenas of choice: Are younger and older adults differently susceptible to framing effects?. Journal of General Psychology 132 (2005) 81-92
71. Rönnlund M., and Nilsson L.-G. Adult life-span patterns in WAIS-R Block Design performance: Cross-sectional versus longitudinal age gradients and relation to demographic factors. Intelligence 34 (2006) 63-78
72. Rönnlund M., Nyberg L., Bäckman L., and Nilsson L.-G. Stability, growth, and decline in adult life span development of declarative memory: Cross-sectional and longitudinal data from a population-based study. Psychology and Aging 20 (2005) 3-18
73. Russo J.E., and Schoemaker P.J. Managing overconfidence. Sloan Management Review 33 (1992) 7-17
74. Salthouse T.A. The processing-speed theory of adult age differences in cognition. Psychological Review 103 (1996) 403-428
75. Salthouse T.A. Structural models of the relations between age and measures of cognitive functioning. Intelligence 29 (2001) 93-115
76. Salthouse T.A. Relations between cognitive abilities and measures of executive functioning. Neuropsychology 19 (2005) 532-545
77. Salthouse T.A., and Babcock R.L. Decomposing adult age differences in working memory. Developmental Psychology 27 (1991) 763-776
78. Salthouse T.A., and Ferrer-Caja E. What needs to be explained to account for age related effects on multiple cognitive variables?. Psychology and Aging 18 (2003) 91-110
79. Schaie K.W. The course of adult intellectual development. American Psychologist 49 (1994) 304-313
80. Snow R.E., Kyllonen C.P., and Marshalek B. The topography of ability and learning correlations. In: Sternberg R.J. (Ed). Advances in the psychology of human intelligence (1984), Erlbaum, Hillsdale, NJ 47-103
81. Soll J.B. Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65 (1996) 117-137
82. Soll J.B., and Klayman J. Overconfidence in interval estimates. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition 30 (2004) 299-314
83. Spaniol J., and Bayen U.J. Aging and conditional probability judgments: A global matching approach. Psychology and Aging 20 (2005) 165-181
84. Stanovich K.E., and West R.F. Individual differences in rational thought. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 127 (1998) 161-188
85. Stanovich K.E., and West R.F. Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (2000) 645-726
86. Tentori K., Osherson D., Hasher L., and May C. Wisdom and aging: Irrational preferences in college students but not older adults. Cognition 81 (2001) B87-B96
87. Tulving E., and Colotla V.A. Free recall of trilingual lists. Cognitive Psychology 1 (1970) 86-98
88. Tversky A., and Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 185 (1974, September 27) 1124-1131
89. Unsworth N., and Engle R.W. On the division of short-term and working memory: An examination of simple and complex span and their relation to higher order abilities. Psychological Bulletin 113 (2007) 1038-1066
90. Wechsler D. Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Revised: Manual (1981), Psychological Corp, New York
91. Winman A., Hansson P., and Juslin P. Subjective probability intervals: How to cure overconfidence by interval evaluation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory, and Cognition 30 (2004) 1167-1175
92. Wolfe R.N., and Grosch J.W. Personality correlates of confidence in one's decisions. Journal of Personality 58 (1990) 515-534
93. Wright G., and Phillips L.D. Personality and probabilistic thinking. British Journal of Psychology 70 (1979) 295-303
94. Yaniv I., and Foster D.P. Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 10 (1997) 21-32
95. Yates J.F. Judgment and decision making (1990), Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ