The future of predictive microbiology: Strategic research, innovative applications and great expectations

International Journal of Food Microbiology

Volumn 128, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 2-9

  McMeekin, Tom ^a   Bowman, John ^a   McQuestin, Olivia ^a   Mellefont, Lyndal ^a   Ross, Tom ^a   Tamplin, Mark ^a  

^a University of Tasmania   (Australia)

Author keywords

Enabling technology; Microbial persistence and recovery; Model building; Modelling food and other ecosystems; Predictive microbiology; Strategic research; Value analysis

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BACTERIAL GROWTH; FOOD CONTROL; FOOD HANDLING; FOOD INDUSTRY; FOOD QUALITY; FOOD SAFETY; FOOD SPOILAGE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MEAT INDUSTRY; NUTRITIONAL SCIENCE; TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENT; TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY;

BACTERIA; FOOD MICROBIOLOGY; FORECASTING; HUMANS; KINETICS; MATHEMATICS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, THEORETICAL; PREDICTIVE VALUE OF TESTS; RESEARCH; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 54049084892     PISSN: 01681605     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2008.06.026     Document Type: Article

References (83)

1. Aizenman E., Engelberg-Kulka H., and Glaser G. An Escherichia coli chromosomal "addiction module" regulated by 3′,5′-bispyrophosphate: a model for programmed bacterial cell death. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA. 93 (1996) 6059-6063
2. AQIS (Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service) 2005. Export Control (Meat and Meat Products) Orders 2005 (http://www.daffa.gov.au/aqis/export/meat/elmer-3).
3. Atlas R.M., and Bartha R. Microbial Ecology: Fundamentals and Applications. 2nd Edition (1987), Benjamin/Cummins Publishing Company Ltd., Menlo, California 533
4. Balaban N.Q., Merrin J., Chait R., Kowalik L., and Leibler S. Bacterial persistence as a phenotypic switch. Science 305 (2004) 1622-1625
5. Bally M., and Garrabout J. Thermodependent bacterial pathogens and mass mortalities in temperate benthic communities: a new case of emerging disease linked to climate change. Global Changes in Biology 13 (2007) 2077-2088
6. Barabasi A.-L. Linked: How Everything is Connected to Everything Else and What it Means (2002), Penguin Books Ltd., London, UK 304 p
7. Bigelow W.D. The logarithmic nature of thermal death time curves. Journal of Infectious Diseases 29 (1921) 528-536
8. Bongaarts J. Five period measures of longevity. Demographic Research 13 (2005) 547-558
9. Bothma J., Gilmore J., and McKenzie R.H. Modelling quantum decoherence in biomolecules. Quantum Aspects of Life. World Scientific Book, Chapter 1 (2007) 5-29
10. Bridson E.Y., and Gould G.W. Quantal microbiology. Letters in Applied Microbiology 30 (2000) 95-98
11. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Outbreak of Vibrio parahaemolyticus infections associated with eating raw oysters-Pacific Northwest 1997. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 47 (1998) 457-462
12. Chamberlin C.E., and Mitchell R. A decay model for enteric bacteria in natural waters. In: Mitchell R. (Ed). Water Pollution Microbiology, Vol. 2 (1978), Wiley, New York 325-348
13. Chandler R.E., and McMeekin T.A. Combined effect of temperature and salt concentration/water activity on the growth rate of Halobacterium spp. Journal of Applied Bacteriology 67 (1989) 71-76
14. Cohan F.M. What are bacterial species?. Annual Reviews in Microbiology 56 (2002) 457-487
15. Cook D.W., O'Leary P., Hunsucker J.C., Sloan E.M., Bowers J.C., Blodgett R.J., and DePaola A. Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio parahaemolyticus in U.S. retain shell oysters: a national survey, June 1998 to July 1999. Journal of Food Protection 65 (2002) 79-87
16. Curtis T. Theory and the microbial world. Environmental Microbiology 9 (2007) 1
17. Ellouze M., Pichaud M., Bonaiti C., Coroller L., Couvert O., Thuault D., and Vaillant R. Modelling pH evolution and lactic acid production in the growth medium of a lactic acid bacterium. Application to set a biological TTI. International Journal of Food Microbiology (2008) (submitted to this Special Issue)
18. Engelberg-Kulka H., and Glaser G. Addiction modules and programmed cell death and antideath in bacterial cultures. Annual Review of Microbiology 53 (1999) 43-70
19. Esty J.R., and Meyer K.F. The heat resistance of spores of B. botulinus and related anaerobes. Journal of Infectious Diseases 31 (1922) 650-663
20. Ferenici T., and Spira B. Variation in stress responses within a bacterial species and the indirect costs of stress resistance. Annals of the New Your Academy of Science 1113 (2007) 105-113
21. Food and Agriculture Organisation/World Health Organisation 2006. Risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in seafood: interpretative summary and technical report (www.who.int/foodsafety/publication/micro/en/index.html).
22. Frankland P., and Frankland P. Microorganisms in Water; Their Significance, Identification and Removal. Chapter IX. Action of Sunlight on Microorganisms in Water (1894), Longmans Green and Co., London
23. Frederiksen M., Osterberg C., Silberg S., Larsan E., and Bremner A. Info-Fisk. Development and validation of an internet based traceability system in a Danish domestic fresh fish chain. Journal of Aquatic Food Product Technology 11 (2002) 13-34
24. Fujioka R.S., Hashimoto H.H., Siwak E.B., and Young R.F.P. Effect of sunlight on survival of indicator bacteria in seawater. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 41 (1981) 690-696
25. Geeraerd A.H., Valdramidis V.P., Devlieghere F., Bernaerts H., Debevere J., and Van Impe J.F. Development of a novel approach for secondary modelling in predictive microbiology: incorporation of microbiological knowledge in black box polynomial modelling. International Journal of Food Microbiology 91 (2004) 229-244
26. Gerdes K. Toxin-antitoxin modules may regulate synthesis of macromolecules during nutritional stress. Journal of Bacteriology 182 (2000) 561-572
27. Gompertz B. On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, London 115 (1825) 513-585
28. Gooch J., De Paola A., Bowers J., and Marshall D. Growth and survival of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in postharvest American oysters. Journal of Food Protection 65 (2002) 970-974
29. Gross A.J., and Clark V.A. Survival Distributions: Reliability Applications in the Biomedical Sciences (1975), Wiley, New York
30. Holah J.T., Bird J., and Hall K.E. The microbial ecology of high-risk, chilled food factories; evidence for persistent Listeria spp. and Escherichia coli strains. Journal of Applied Microbiology 97 (2004) 68-77
31. Hugenholtz P. Riding giants. Environmental Microbiology 9 (2007) 5
32. Karner M.B., de Long E.F., and Karl D.M. Archaeal dominance in the mesopelagic zone of the Pacific Ocean. Nature 409 (2001) 5107-5109
33. Kell D.B., Kaprelyants A.S., Weichart D.H., Harwood C.R., and Barer M.R. Viability and activity in readily culturable bacteria: a review and discussion of the practical issues. Antonie van Leeuwenhock 73 (1998) 169-187
34. Knight G.C., Nicol R.S., and McMeekin T.A. Temperature step changes: a novel approach to control biofilms of Streptococcus thermophilus in a pilot plant-scale cheese-milk pasteurisation plant. International Journal of Food Microbiology 93 (2004) 305-318
35. Krist K., Ross T., and McMeekin T.A. Final optical density and growth rate: effects of temperature and NaCl differ from acidity. International Journal of Food Microbiology 43 (1998) 195-204
36. Labuza T.P. Microbial modelling-a new paradigm in food science. Food Technology 48 (1994) 16
37. Labuza T. Time-temperature integrators and the cold chain: what is next?. In: Kreyenschmidt J., and Petersen B. (Eds). Proceedings of the 2nd International Cold-Chain Management Workshop, Universitasdruckeri, Bonn (2006) 71-78
38. Lambert R.J.W., and Bidlas E. A study of the Gamma hypothesis: predictive modelling of the growth and inhibition of Enterbacter sakazakii. International Journal of Food Microbiology 115 (2007) 204-213
39. Langeveld L.P.M., van Montfort-Quasig R.M.G.E., Werkamp A.H., Waal Jr. E.W.I., and Wever J.S. Adherence, growth and release of bacteria in a tube heat exchanger for milk. Netherlands Milk Dairy Journal 49 (1995) 207-220
40. Leistner L. Basic aspects of food preservation by hurdle technology. International Journal of Food Microbiology 55 (2000) 181-186
41. Leistner L., and Gorris L.G.M. Food preservation by hurdle technology. Trends in Food Science and Technology 6 (1995) 41-46
42. Lobitz B., Beck L., Huq A., Wood B., Fuchs G., Faruque A.S.G., and Colwell R. Climate and infectious disease: use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement. PNAS 97 (2000) 1438-1443
43. Mackey B.M., and Derrick C.M. A comparison of solid and liquid media for measuring the sensitivity of heat-injured Salmonella typhimurium to selenite and tetrathiomate media and the time needed to recover resistance. Journal of Applied Bacteriology 53 (1982) 233-242
44. Mackey B.M., and Seymour D.A. The effect of catalase on recovery of heat-injured DNA-repair mutants of Escherichia coli. Journal of General Microbiology 133 (1987) 233-242
45. Maurimo D., Reason J., Johnson J., and Lee R.B. Beyond Aviation Human Factors (1995), Ashgate Publishing, UK 169
46. McCambridge J., and McMeekin T.A. Effect of solar radiation and predacious microorganisms on survival of faecal and other bacteria. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 41 (1981) 1083-1087
47. McMeekin T.A. Predictive Microbiology: quantitative science delivering quantifiable benefits to the meat industry and other food industries. Meat Science 77 (2007) 17-27
48. McMeekin T.A., and Ross T. Shelf life prediction: status and future possibilities. International Journal of Food Microbiology 33 (1996) 65-83
49. McMeekin T.A., Olley J., Ross T., and Ratkowsky D.A. Predictive Microbiology: Theory and Application (1993), Research Studies Press and John Wiley and Sons, Taunton, UK pp 340
50. McMeekin T.A., Olley J., Ratkowsky D.A., and Ross T. Predictive microbiology: towards the interface and beyond. International Journal of Food Microbiology 73 (2002) 395-407
51. McMeekin T.A., Szabo L., and Ross T. Connecting science with technology to improve microbial food safety management. International Review of Food Science and Technology (2005) 125-130 Winter 2005/2006
52. McMeekin T.A., Baranyi J., Bowman J.P., Dalgaard P., Kirk M., Ross T., Schmid S., and Zwietering M.H. Information systems in food safety management. International Journal of Food Microbiology 112 (2006) 181-194
53. McMeekin T.A., Smale N., Jenson I., Ross T., and Tanner D.B. Combining microbial growth models with near real-time temperature monitoring technologies to estimate the shelf-life and safety of foods during processing and distribution. In: Kreyenschmidt J., and Petersen B. (Eds). Proceedings of the 2nd International Cold-chain Management Workshop, Universitasdruckeri, Bonn (2006) 43-52
54. Membré J.M., and Lambert R.J.W. Predictive modeling techniques in industry: from food design up to risk assessment. International Journal of Food Microbiology (2008) (submitted to this Special Issue)
55. Miles D.W., Ross T., Olley J., and McMeekin T.A. Development and evaluation of a predictive model for the effect of temperature and water activity on the growth rate of Vibrio parahaemolyticus. International Journal of Food Microbiology 38 (1997) 133-142
56. Neimeyer-Stein N. Labelling product packages with lost-cost secure optical identicodes. In: Kreyenschmidt J., and Petersen B. (Eds). Proceedings of the 2nd International Cold-Chain Management Workshop, Universitasdruckeri, Bonn (2006) 83-90
57. Nixon P.A. Temperature integration as a means of assessing storage conditions. Report on Quality in Fish Products. Seminar No. 3, Fishing Industry Board, New Zealand (1971) 33-44
58. Novitsky J.A., and Morita R.Y. Morphological characterisation of small cells resulting from nutrient starvation of a psychrophilic marine vibrio. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 32 (1976) 617-622
59. Olley J. Handling of abalone. Report on Quality of Fish Products. Seminar No. 3, Fishing Industry Board, New Zealand (1971) 89-95
60. Olley J., and Ratkowsky D.A. Temperature function integration and its importance in the distribution and storage of flesh foods above the freezing point. Food Technology Australia 25 (1973) 66-73
61. Olley J., and Ratkowsky D.A. The role of temperature function in monitoring fish spoilage. Food Technology New Zealand 8 (1973) 13-17
62. Olley J., and Lisac H. Time/temperature monitors. Infofish Marketing Digest 3 (1985) 45-47
63. Oomes S.J.C.M., va Zuijlen A.C.M., Hehenhamp J.O., Witsenboer H., van der Vossen J.M.B.M., and Brul S. The characterisation of Bacillus spores occurring in the manufacturing of (low acid) canned products. International Journal of Food Microbiology 120 (2007) 85-94
64. Phillips A.M.B., DePaola A., Bowers J., Ladner S., and Grimes D.J. An evaluation of the use of remotely sensed parameters for prediction of incidence and risk associated with Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Gulf Coast Oysters (Crassostrea virginica). Journal of Food Protection 70 (2007) 879-884
65. Prosser J.I., Bohannan B.J.M., Curtis T.P., Ellis E.J., Firestone M.K., Freckleton R.P., Green J.L., Green L.E., Killham K., Lennon J.J., Osborn A.M., Solan M., van der Gast C.J., and Young J.P.W. The role of ecological theory in microbial ecology. Nature 5 (2007) 384-392
66. Ratkowsky D.A. Principles of nonlinear regression modelling. Journal of Industrial Microbiology 12 (1993) 195-199
67. Ratkowsky D.A., and Ross T. Modelling the bacterial growth-no growth interface. Letters in Applied Microbiology 20 (1995) 29-33
68. Ratkowsky D.A., Ross T., Macario N., Dommett T.W., and Kamperman L. Choosing probability distributions for modelling generation time variability. Journal of Applied Bacteriology 80 (1996) 131-137
69. Ratkowsky D.A., Olley J., and Ross T. Unifying temperature effects on the growth rate of bacteria and the stability of globular proteins. Journal of Theoretical Biology 233 (2005) 351-362
70. Reason J. Human Error (1990), Cambridge University Press 302
71. Recknagel F., French M., Harkonen P., and Yabunaka K. Artificial neural network approach for modelling and prediction of algal blooms. Ecological Modelling 96 (1997) 11-28
72. Rose J.B., Epstein P.R., Lipp E.K., Sherman B.H., Bernard S.M., and Patz J.A. Climate variability and changes in the United States: potential impacts on water- and foodborne diseases caused by microbiologic agents. Environmental Health Perspectives 109 (2001) 211-221 Supplement 2
73. Rosenberg E., and Ben-Haim Y. Microbial diseases of corals and global warming. Environmental Microbiology 4 (2002) 318-326
74. Schaffner D.W. Models-what comes after the next generation?. In: McKellar R.C., and Lu X. (Eds). Modelling Microbial Responses in Food (2003), CRC Press Inc., Boca Raton, FL 303-312
75. Schoemann V., Becquevort S., Stefels J., Rosseau W., and Lancelot C. Phaeocystis blooms in the global ocean and their controlling mechanisms. Journal of Sea Research 52 (2005) 43-66
76. Scott W.J. The growth of microorganisms on ox muscle. I. The influence of temperature. Journal of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Australia 10 (1937) 338-350
77. Shapiro J.A. Thinking about bacterial populations as multicellular organisms. Scientific American 258 (1998) 82-89
78. Smits W.K., Kuipers O.P., and Veening J.-W. Phenotypic variation in bacteria: the role of feedback regulation. Nature Reviews Microbiology 4 (2006) 259-271
79. Strachan N.J.C., Dunn G.M., Locking M.E., Reid T.M.S., and Ogden I.D. Escherichia coli 0157: burger bug or environmental pathogen?. International Journal of Food Microbiology 112 (2006) 129-137
80. Teriokhin A.T., Budilova E.V., Thomas F., and Guegan G.T. Worldwide variation in life-span sexual dimorphism and sex-specific mortality rates. Human Biology 76 (2004) 623-641
81. Torrella F., and Morita R.Y. Microcultural study of bacterial size changes and microcolony and ultramicrocolony formation by heterotrophic bacteria in seawater. Applied and Environmental Microbiology 41 (1981) 518-527
82. Whitman W.B., Coleman D.C., and Wiebe W.J. Prokaryotes, the unseen majority. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, USA 95 (1998) 6578-6583
83. Yiannas, F., (in press). Food Safety Culture: Creating a behaviour-based food safety management system, 70 pp in Food Microbiology and Food Safety, Springer Scientific.