The end of economic voting? Contingency dilemmas and the limits of democratic accountability

Annual Review of Political Science

Volumn 10, Issue , 2007, Pages 271-296

  Anderson, Christopher J ^a  

^a Department of Obstetrics Gynecology   (United States)

Author keywords

Democratic theory; Elections; Political behavior; Political economy; Representation

Indexed keywords

EID: 34347403711     PISSN: 10942939     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.050806.155344     Document Type: Review

References (136)

1. Aidt TS. 2000, Economic voting and information. Elec. Stud. 19:349-62
2. Alt JE. 2002. Comparative political economy: credibility, accountability, and institutions. In Political Science: The State of the Discipline, ed. I Katznelson, HV Milner, pp. 147-71. New York: WW Norton
3. Alt JE, Lassen DD. 2006, Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries. Eur. Econ. Rev, 50:1403-39
4. Anderson CD. 2006. Economic voting and multilevel governance: a comparative individuallevel analysis. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 50:449-63
5. Anderson CJ. 1995. Blaming the Government: Citizens and the Economy in Five European Democracies. Armonk, NY: ME Sharpe
6. Anderson CJ. 2000. Economic voting and political context: a comparative perspective. Elec. Stud. 19:151-70
7. Anderson CJ, Mondes S, Tverdova YV. 2004. Endogenous economic voting: evidence from the 1997 British election. Elec. Stud. 23:683-708
8. Anderson CJ, O'Connor KM. 2000. System change, learning, and public opinion about the economy. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 30:147-72
9. Barro R. 1973. The control of politicians: an economic model. Public Choice 14:19-42
10. Bartels LM. 1996. Uninformed votes: information effects in presidential elections. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 40:194-230
11. Basinger SJ, Lavine H. 2005. Ambivalence, information, and electoral choice. Am. Polit. SW. fov. 99:169-84
12. Bengtsson A. 2004. Economic voting: the effect of political context, volatility and turnout on voters' assignment of responsibility. Eur. J. Polit. Res. 43:749-67
13. Berelson B, Lazarsfeld P, McPhee W. 1954. Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
14. Borre O. 1997. Economic voting in Danish electoral surveys 1987-1994. Scand. Polit. Stud. 20:347-65
15. Campbell A, Converse PE, Miller W, Stokes S. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley
16. Chappell HW, Goncalves Veiga L. 2000. Economics and elections in western Europe: 1960-1997. Elec. Stud. 19:183-97
17. Chappell HW, Keech WR. 1985. A new view of political accountability for economic performance. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 79:10-27
18. Cheibub JA, Przeworski A. 1999. Democracy, elections, and accountability for economic outcomes. See Przeworski et al. 1999, pp. 222-50
19. Conover P, Feldman S. 1986. Emotional reactions to the economy: I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it anymore. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 30:50-78
20. Conover P, Feldman S, Knight K. 1986. Judging inflation and unemployment: the origins of retrospective evaluations. J. Polit. 48:565-88
21. Converse PE. 1964. The nature of belief systems in mass publics. In Ideology and Discontent, ed. D Apter, pp. 206-61. New York: Free
22. Converse PE. 1990. Popular representation and the distribution of information. In Information and Democratic Processes, ed. JA Ferejohn, JH Kuklinski, pp. 369-88. Urbana: Univ. Ill. Press
23. Dahl RA. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
24. Dalton RJ. 2002. Citizen Politics: Public Opinion & Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House
25. Dalton RJ, Wattenberg MP. 2002. Parties Without Partisans: Political Change in Advanced Industrial Democracies. New York: Oxford Univ. Press
26. Dorussen H, Taylor M. 2001. The political context of issue-priority voting: coalitions and economic voting in the Netherlands, 1970-1999. Elec. Stud. 20:399-426
27. Downs A. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row
28. Duch RM, Palmer HD, Anderson CJ. 2000. Heterogeneity in perceptions of national economic conditions. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 44:635-52
29. Duch RM, Stevenson RT. 2005. Context and the economic vote: a multilevel analysis. Polit. Anal. 13:387-409
30. Eulau H, Lewis-Beck MS, eds. 1985. Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes in the United States and Western Europe. New York: Agathon
31. Evans G, Andersen R. 2006. The political conditioning of economic perceptions. J. Polit. 68:194-207
32. Fearon JD. 1999. Electoral accountability and the control of politicians: selecting good types versus sanctioning poor performance. See Przeworski et al. 1999, pp. 55-97
33. Ferejohn J. 1986. Incumbent performance and electoral control. Public Choice 50:5-26
34. Ferejohn J. 1999. Accountability and authority: towards a model of political accountability. See Przeworski et al. 1999, pp. 131-54
35. Fiorina M. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
36. Fischhoff B. 1976. Attribution theory and judgment under uncertainty. In New Directions in Attribution Research. Vol. 1, ed. JH Harvey, WJ Ickes, RF Kidd, pp. 421-52. New York: Wiley
37. Frey B, Garbers H. 1971. Der Einfluss wirtschaftlicher Variabler auf die Popularität der Regierung: Eine empirische Analyse. Jahrb. Natl. ökon. Stat. 186:281-95
38. Frey B, Schneider F. 1980. Popularity functions: the case of the U.S. and West Germany. In Models of Political Economy, ed. P Whiteley, pp.47-84. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage
39. Goidel RK, Langley RE. 1995. Media coverage of the economy and aggregate economic evaluations: uncovering evidence of indirect media effects. Polit. Res. Q. 48:313-28
40. Gomez BT, Wilson JM. 2006. Cognitive heterogeneity and economic voting: a comparative analysis of four democratic electorates. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 50:127-45
41. Goodhart CAE, Bhansali RJ. 1970. Political economy. Polit. Stud. 18:43-106
42. Haller HB, Norpoth H. 1997. Reality bites: news exposure and economic opinion. Public Opin. Q. 61:555-75
43. Hardin R. 2000. The public trust. In Disaffected Democracies: What's Troubling the Trilateral Democracies, Ed. S J Pharr, RD Putnam, pp. 31-51. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
44. Hardin R. 2002. Street-level epistemology and democratic participation. J. Polit. Phil. 10:212-29
45. Hellwig TT. 2001. Interdependence, government constraints and economic voting. J. Polit. 63-1141-62
46. Hellwig TT, Samuels D. 2007. Electoral accountability and the variety of democratic regimes. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 37: In press
47. Hetherington MJ. 1996. The media's role in forming voters' national economic evaluations in 1992. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 40:372-95
48. Hibbs D. 1977. Political parties and macroeconomic policy. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 71:1467-87
49. Hibbs Douglas A. 2006. Voting and the macroeconomy. Oxford Handbook of Political Economy, ed. BR Weingast, D Wittman, pp. 565-86, New York: Oxford Univ. Press
50. Holbrook T, Garand JC. 1996. Homo economus? Economic information and economic voting. Polit. Res. Q. 49:351-75
51. Keech WR. 1995. Economic Politics: The Costs of Democracy. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
52. Kernell S. 1978. Explaining presidential popularity. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 72:506-22
53. Key VO. 1966. The Responsible Electorate. New York: Vintage Books
54. Kiewiet DR. 2000. Economic retrospective voting and incentives for policymaking. Elec. Stud. 19:427-44
55. Kirchgässner G. 1974, Ökonometrische Untersuchungen des Einflusses der Wirtschaftslage auf die Popularität der Parteien. Schweiz. Z. Volkswirtsch. Star. 100:409-45
56. Kirchgässner G. 1991. Economic conditions and the popularity of West German parties: before and after the 1982 government change. In Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support, ed. H Norpoth, MS Lewis-Beck, JD Lafay, pp. 103-22. Ann Arbor: Univ. Mich. Press
57. Kramer G. 1971. Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896-1964. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 65:131-43
58. Kramer G. 1983. The ecological fallacy revisited: aggregate- versus individual-level findings on economics and elections, and sociotropic voting. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 77:92-111
59. Krause GA. 1997. Voters, information heterogeneity and the dynamics of aggregate economic expectations. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 41:1170-200
60. Krause GA, Granato J. 1998. Fooling some of the public some of the time? A test for weak rationality with heterogeneous information levels. Public Opin. Q. 62:135-51
61. Kuklinski JH, West DM. 1981. Economic expectations and voting behavior in United States House and Senate elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 75:436-47
62. Lafay JD. 1985. Important political change and the stability of the popularity function: before and after the French general election of 1981. In Economic Conditions and Electoral Outcomes, ed. H Eulau, MS Lewis-Beck, pp.78-97. New York: Agathon
63. Lange P, Garrett G. 1985. The politics of growth strategic interaction and economic performance in the advanced industrial democracies, 1974-1980. J. Polit. 47:792-827
64. Lassen DD. 2003. Political accountability and the size of government: theory and crosscountry evidence. EPRU Work. Pap. Ser. 00-20, Econ. Policy Res. Unit (EPRU), Univ. Copenhagen
65. Lewis-Beck MS. 1980. Economic conditions and executive popularity: the French experience. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 24:306-23
66. Lewis-Beck MS. 1988. Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies, Ann Arbor: Univ. Mich. Press
67. Lewis-Beck MS, Mitchell G. 1993. Bringing politics back in: the French lesson for popularity functions. Presented at Ann. Meet. Midwest Polit. Sci. Assoc., Chicago
68. Lewis-Beck MD, Paldam M. 2000. Economic voting: an introduction. Elec. Stud. 19:113-22
69. Lewis-Beck MS, Stegmaier M. 2000. Economic determinants of electoral outcomes. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 3:183-219
70. Lohmann S. 1999. What price accountability? The Lucas Island model and the politics of monetary policy. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 43:396-430
71. Lowry RC, Alt JE, Ferree KE. 1998. Fiscal policy outcomes and electoral accountability in American states. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 92:759-74
72. MacKuen MB. 1983. Political drama, economic conditions, and the dynamics of presidential popularity. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 28:165-92
73. Manin B. 1997. The Principles of Representative Government. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
74. Manin B, Przeworski A, Stokes SC. 1999. Elections and representation. See Przeworski et al. 1999, pp. 29-54
75. McDonald MD, Budge I. 2005. Elections, Parties, Democracy: Conferring the Median Mandate. New York: Oxford Univ. Press
76. Mill JS. 1955. On Liberty. Chicago: Henry Regnery
77. Monroe K. 1984. Presidential Popularity and the Economy. New York: Praeger
78. Mueller JE. 1970. Presidential popularity from Truman to Johnson. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 64:18-34
79. Mutz D. 1992. Mass media and the depoliticization of personal experience. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 36:483-508
80. Mutz D. 1994. Contextualizing personal experience: the role of mass media. J. Polit. 56:689-714
81. Mutz D, Mondak J. 1997. Dimensions of sociotropic behavior: group-based judgements of fairness and well-being. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 41:284-308
82. Nadeau R, Niemi R, Fan DP, Amato T. 1999. Elite economic forecasts, economic news, mass economic judgments, and presidential approval. J. Polit. 61:109-35
83. Nadeau R, Niemi R, Yoshinaka A. 2002. A cross-national analysis of economic voting: taking account of the political context across time and nations. Elec. Stud. 21:403-23
84. Nannestad P, Paldam M. 1994. The vpfunction: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after 25 years. Public Choice 79:213-45
85. Nannestad P, Paldam M, Rosholm M. 2003. System change and economic evaluations: a study of immigrants and natives in Israel. Elec. Stud. 22:485-501
86. Nisbett RE, Ross L. 1980. Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall
87. Norpoth H. 1984. Economics, politics, and the cycle of presidential popularity. Polit. Behav. 6:253-73
88. Norpoth H. 2001. Divided government and economic voting. J. Polit. 63:414-35
89. Pacek A, Radcliff B. 1995a. The political economy of competitive elections in the developing world. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 39:745-59
90. Pacek A, Radcliff B. 1995b. Economic voting and the welfare state: a cross-national analysis. J. Polit. 57:44-61
91. Page B, Shapiro R. 1992. The Rational Public. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press
92. Paldam M. 1991. How robust is the vote function? In Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support, ed. H Norpoth, MS LewisBeck, JD Lafay, pp. 9-32. Ann Arbor: Univ. Mich. Press
93. Paldam M, Nannestad P. 2000. What do voters know about the economy? A study of Danish data, 1990-1993. Elec. Stud. 19:363-92
94. Paldam M, Schneider F. 1980. The macroeconomic aspects of government and opposition popularity in Denmark 1957-1978. Natl. Økon. Tidsskr. 118:149-70
95. Palmer HD, Whitten GD. 2000. Government competence, economic performance and endogenous election dates. Elec. Stud. 19:413-26
96. Palmer HD, Whitten GD. 2003. Questionable analyses with no theoretical innovation: a response to Royed, Leyden and Borrelli. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 33:139-49
97. Pattie C, Johnston R. 2001. Routes to party choice: ideology, economic evaluations and voting at the 1997 British general election. Eur. J. Polit. Res. 39:373-89
98. Peffley M, Feldman S, Sigelman L. 1987. Economic conditions and party competence: process or belief revision. J. Polit. 49:100-21
99. Peffley M, Williams IT. 1985. Attributing presidential responsibility for national economic problems. Am. Polit. Q. 13:393-425
100. Persson T, Roland G, Tabellini G. 2000. Comparative politics and public finance. J. Polit. Econ. 108:1121-61
101. Powell GB. 2000. Elections as Instruments of Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale Univ. Press
102. Powell GB. 2004. The chain of responsiveness. J. Democr. 15:91-105
103. Powell GB, Whitten GD. 1993. A cross-national analysis of economic voting: taking account of the political context. Am. J. Polit. Sci. 37:391-414
104. Przeworski A. 1999. A minimalist conception of democracy: a defense. In Democracy's Value, ed. I Shapiro, C Hacker-Cordon, pp. 23-55. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
105. Przeworski A, Manin B, Stokes SC. 1999. Democracy, Accountability, and Representation. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
106. Remmer K. 1993. The political economy of elections in Latin America, 1980-1991. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 87:393-407
107. Riker WH. 1965. Democracy in the United States. New York: Macmillan. 2nd ed.
108. Royed TJ, Leyden KM, Borrelli SA. 2000. Is 'clarity of responsibility' important for economic voting? Revisiting Powell and Whitten's hypothesis. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 30:669-85
109. Rudolph TJ. 2003. Institutional context and the assignment of political responsibility. J. Polit. 65:190-215
110. Samuels D. 2004. Presidentialism and accountability for the economy in comparative perspective. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 98:425-36
111. Sanders D. 2000. The real economy and the perceived economy in popularity functions: How much do voters need to know? A study of British data, 1974-1997. Elec. Stud. 19:275-94
112. Sanders D, Carey S. 2002. Temporal variations in economic voting: a comparative cross-national analysis. In Economic Voting, ed. H Dorussen, M Michaeli Taylor, pp. 200-32. London: Routledge
113. Sanders D, Gavin N. 2004. Television news, economic perceptions and political preferences in Britain, 1997-2001. J. Polit. 66:1245-66
114. Schmitter P, Karl T. 1991. What democracy is... and is not. J. Democr. 2:75-89
115. Schumpeter JA. 1942. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. New York: Harper
116. Shah V, Watts MD, Domke D, Fan DP, Fibison M. 1999. News coverage, economic cues and the public's presidential preferences, 1984-96. J. Polit. 61:914-43
117. Smiley M. 1999. Democratic citizenship: a question of competence? In Citizen Competence and Democratic Institutions, ed. S Elkin, K Soltan, pp. 371-84. Univ. Park: Penn. State Univ. Press
118. Stein RM. 1990. Economic voting for governor and U.S. senator: the electoral consequences of federalism. J. Polit. 52:29-53
119. Stigler GJ. 1973. General economic conditions and national elections. Am. Econ. Rev. 63:1960-67
120. Stiglitz J. 1998. Central banking in a democratic society. De Econ. 146:199-226
121. Stokes SC, ed. 2001. Public Support for Market Reforms in New Democracies. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
122. Tibbits C. 1931. Majority votes and the business cycle. Am. J. Soc. 36:596-606
123. Tucker JA. 2002, The first decade of postcommunist elections and voting: What have we studied, and how have we studied it? Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 5:271-304
124. Tucker JA. 2006. Regional Economic Voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, 1990-1999. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press
125. Tufte ER. 1975. Determinants of the out-comes of midterm congressional elections. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 69:812-26
126. Tufte ER. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
127. van der Brug W, van der Eijk C, Franklin MN. 2007. The Economy and the Vote: Understanding Voter Preferences and Election Outcomes in Fifteen Countries. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press. In press
128. Waldron J. 1998. Participation; the right of rights. P roc. Aristot. Soc. 98:307-37
129. Warren ME. 1996. Deliberative democracy and authority. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 90:46-60
130. Watt D. 1968. Labour's hard road to recovery. Fin. Times March 8:15
131. Weatherford MS. 1983. Economic voting and the "symbolic politics" argument: a reinterpretation and synthesis. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 77:158-74
132. Welch S, Hibbing J. 1992. Financial conditions, gender and voting in American national elections. J. Polit. 54:197-213
133. Whitten GD, Palmer HD. 1999. Cross-national analyses of economic voting. Elec. Stud. 18:49-67
134. Wittman DA. 1989. Why democracies produce efficient results. J. Polit. Econ. 97:1395-1424
135. Wlezien C, Franklin MN, Twiggs D. 1997. Economic perceptions and vote choice: disentangling the endogeneity. Polit. Behav. 19:7-17
136. Zaller JR. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press