System change, learning and public opinion about the economy

British Journal of Political Science

Volumn 30, Issue 1, 2000, Pages 147-172

  Anderson, Christopher J ^a   O'Connor, Kathleen M ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0034405066     PISSN: 00071234     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0007123400000077     Document Type: Article

References (79)

1. See, for example, Peter Nannestad and Martin Paldam, 'The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After 25 Years', Public Choice, 79 (1994), 213-45; Helmut Norpoth, 'The Economy', in Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Norris, eds, Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective (Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage, 1996).
2. See, for example, Peter Nannestad and Martin Paldam, 'The VP-Function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions After 25 Years', Public Choice, 79 (1994), 213-45; Helmut Norpoth, 'The Economy', in Lawrence LeDuc, Richard G. Niemi and Pippa Norris, eds, Comparing Democracies: Elections and Voting in Global Perspective (Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage, 1996).
3. Christopher J. Anderson and Christopher Wlezien, 'The Economics of Politics in Comparative Perspective Revisited', Political Behavior, 19 (1997), 1-6.
4. When referring to 'Eastern Europe' we mean to include the former Communist bloc countries of central and eastern Europe, including the successor states of the Soviet Union.
5. See, e.g., Russell J. Dalton, 'Communists and Democrats: Democratic Attitudes in the Two Germanies', British Journal of Political Science, 24 (1994), 469-93; Raymond Duch, 'Tolerating Economic Reform: Popular Support for Transition to a Free Market in the Former Soviet Union', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 590-608; Geoffrey Evans and Stephen Whitefield, 'The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment: Support for Democracy in Transition Societies', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 485-514; William Mishler and Richard Rose, 'Trajectories of Fear and Hope: Support for Democracy in Post-Communist Europe', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1996), 553-81; Alexander Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Polities in East Central Europe', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 723-44.
6. See, e.g., Russell J. Dalton, 'Communists and Democrats: Democratic Attitudes in the Two Germanies', British Journal of Political Science, 24 (1994), 469-93; Raymond Duch, 'Tolerating Economic Reform: Popular Support for Transition to a Free Market in the Former Soviet Union', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 590-608; Geoffrey Evans and Stephen Whitefield, 'The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment: Support for Democracy in Transition Societies', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 485-514; William Mishler and Richard Rose, 'Trajectories of Fear and Hope: Support for Democracy in Post-Communist Europe', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1996), 553-81; Alexander Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Polities in East Central Europe', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 723-44.
7. See, e.g., Russell J. Dalton, 'Communists and Democrats: Democratic Attitudes in the Two Germanies', British Journal of Political Science, 24 (1994), 469-93; Raymond Duch, 'Tolerating Economic Reform: Popular Support for Transition to a Free Market in the Former Soviet Union', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 590-608; Geoffrey Evans and Stephen Whitefield, 'The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment: Support for Democracy in Transition Societies', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 485-514; William Mishler and Richard Rose, 'Trajectories of Fear and Hope: Support for Democracy in Post-Communist Europe', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1996), 553-81; Alexander Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Polities in East Central Europe', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 723-44.
8. See, e.g., Russell J. Dalton, 'Communists and Democrats: Democratic Attitudes in the Two Germanies', British Journal of Political Science, 24 (1994), 469-93; Raymond Duch, 'Tolerating Economic Reform: Popular Support for Transition to a Free Market in the Former Soviet Union', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 590-608; Geoffrey Evans and Stephen Whitefield, 'The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment: Support for Democracy in Transition Societies', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 485-514; William Mishler and Richard Rose, 'Trajectories of Fear and Hope: Support for Democracy in Post-Communist Europe', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1996), 553-81; Alexander Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Polities in East Central Europe', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 723-44.
9. See, e.g., Russell J. Dalton, 'Communists and Democrats: Democratic Attitudes in the Two Germanies', British Journal of Political Science, 24 (1994), 469-93; Raymond Duch, 'Tolerating Economic Reform: Popular Support for Transition to a Free Market in the Former Soviet Union', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), 590-608; Geoffrey Evans and Stephen Whitefield, 'The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment: Support for Democracy in Transition Societies', British Journal of Political Science, 25 (1995), 485-514; William Mishler and Richard Rose, 'Trajectories of Fear and Hope: Support for Democracy in Post-Communist Europe', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1996), 553-81; Alexander Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Polities in East Central Europe', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 723-44.
10. Henry W. Chapell and William Keech, 'Explaining Aggregate Explanations of Economic Performance', in Helmut Norpoth, Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Jean-Dominique Lafay, eds, Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991); H. Brandon Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of US Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50.
11. Henry W. Chapell and William Keech, 'Explaining Aggregate Explanations of Economic Performance', in Helmut Norpoth, Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Jean-Dominique Lafay, eds, Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991); H. Brandon Haller and Helmut Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll: The Economic Expectations of US Voters', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 625-50.
12. Susan T. Fiske, Donald R. Kinder and W. Michael Larter, 'The Novice and the Expert: Knowledge-Based Strategies in Political Cognition', Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19 (1983), 381-400; Susan T. Fiske and Donald R. Kinder, 'Involvement, Expertise, and Schema Use: Evidence from Political Cognition', in N. Cantor and J. Kihlstrom, eds, Personality, Cognition, and Social Interaction (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1981). (F'note continued) regarding future developments of economic performance (see Harold D. Clarke and Marianne Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92). We do not address this debate here because we examine the correspondence of economic perceptions of the current state of the economy and current economic conditions.
13. Susan T. Fiske, Donald R. Kinder and W. Michael Larter, 'The Novice and the Expert: Knowledge-Based Strategies in Political Cognition', Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19 (1983), 381-400; Susan T. Fiske and Donald R. Kinder, 'Involvement, Expertise, and Schema Use: Evidence from Political Cognition', in N. Cantor and J. Kihlstrom, eds, Personality, Cognition, and Social Interaction (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1981). (F'note continued) regarding future developments of economic performance (see Harold D. Clarke and Marianne Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92). We do not address this debate here because we examine the correspondence of economic perceptions of the current state of the economy and current economic conditions.
14. Susan T. Fiske, Donald R. Kinder and W. Michael Larter, 'The Novice and the Expert: Knowledge-Based Strategies in Political Cognition', Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19 (1983), 381-400; Susan T. Fiske and Donald R. Kinder, 'Involvement, Expertise, and Schema Use: Evidence from Political Cognition', in N. Cantor and J. Kihlstrom, eds, Personality, Cognition, and Social Interaction (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1981). (F'note continued) regarding future developments of economic performance (see Harold D. Clarke and Marianne Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92). We do not address this debate here because we examine the correspondence of economic perceptions of the current state of the economy and current economic conditions.
15. Susan T. Fiske, Donald R. Kinder and W. Michael Larter, 'The Novice and the Expert: Knowledge-Based Strategies in Political Cognition', Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 19 (1983), 381-400; Susan T. Fiske and Donald R. Kinder, 'Involvement, Expertise, and Schema Use: Evidence from Political Cognition', in N. Cantor and J. Kihlstrom, eds, Personality, Cognition, and Social Interaction (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1981). (F'note continued) regarding future developments of economic performance (see Harold D. Clarke and Marianne Stewart, 'Prospections, Retrospections, and Rationality: The "Bankers" Model of Presidential Approval Reconsidered', American Journal of Political Science, 38 (1994), 1104-23; Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 776-92). We do not address this debate here because we examine the correspondence of economic perceptions of the current state of the economy and current economic conditions.
16. See, e.g., the exchange by Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', and Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Comment', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 793-801.
17. See, e.g., the exchange by Helmut Norpoth, 'Presidents and the Prospective Voter', and Michael B. MacKuen, Robert S. Erikson and James A. Stimson, 'Comment', Journal of Politics, 58 (1996), 793-801.
18. Douglas Hibbs, The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1987); Haller and Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll'; Michael B. MacKuen, More Than News (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1981).
19. Douglas Hibbs, The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1987); Haller and Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll'; Michael B. MacKuen, More Than News (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1981).
20. Douglas Hibbs, The Political Economy of Industrial Democracies (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1987); Haller and Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll'; Michael B. MacKuen, More Than News (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1981).
21. Benjamin Page and Robert Shapiro, The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1992), pp. 121-2.
22. Examining individual-level data, some scholars have found that the degrees of fit between objective and subjective variables are less reliable than is commonly assumed, or that some variables are correlated while others are not. These results suggest that individuals, subgroups, or populations may err systematically about economics as well as politics. See, e.g., Harold D. Clarke, Euel Elliott, William Mishler, Marianne Stewart, Paul Whiteley and Gary Zuk, Controversies in Political Economy: Canada, Great Britain, the United States (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1992), especially chap. 3; George Krause, 'Voters, Information Heterogeneity, and the Dynamics of Aggregate Economic Expectations', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 1170-200, especially p. 1189; David Sanders, 'Why the Conservative Party Won - Again', in Anthony King, ed., Britain at the Polls, 1992 (London: Chatham House, 1993).
23. Examining individual-level data, some scholars have found that the degrees of fit between objective and subjective variables are less reliable than is commonly assumed, or that some variables are correlated while others are not. These results suggest that individuals, subgroups, or populations may err systematically about economics as well as politics. See, e.g., Harold D. Clarke, Euel Elliott, William Mishler, Marianne Stewart, Paul Whiteley and Gary Zuk, Controversies in Political Economy: Canada, Great Britain, the United States (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1992), especially chap. 3; George Krause, 'Voters, Information Heterogeneity, and the Dynamics of Aggregate Economic Expectations', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 1170-200, especially p. 1189; David Sanders, 'Why the Conservative Party Won - Again', in Anthony King, ed., Britain at the Polls, 1992 (London: Chatham House, 1993).
24. Examining individual-level data, some scholars have found that the degrees of fit between objective and subjective variables are less reliable than is commonly assumed, or that some variables are correlated while others are not. These results suggest that individuals, subgroups, or populations may err systematically about economics as well as politics. See, e.g., Harold D. Clarke, Euel Elliott, William Mishler, Marianne Stewart, Paul Whiteley and Gary Zuk, Controversies in Political Economy: Canada, Great Britain, the United States (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1992), especially chap. 3; George Krause, 'Voters, Information Heterogeneity, and the Dynamics of Aggregate Economic Expectations', American Journal of Political Science, 41 (1997), 1170-200, especially p. 1189; David Sanders, 'Why the Conservative Party Won - Again', in Anthony King, ed., Britain at the Polls, 1992 (London: Chatham House, 1993).
25. Arthur H. Miller, Vicki L. Hesli and William M. Reisinger, 'Conceptions of Democracy Among Mass and Elite in Post-Soviet Societies', British Journal of Political Science, 27 (1997), 157-90.
26. Duch, 'Tolerating Economic Reform'; Evans and Whitefield, 'The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment'; Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Polities in East Central Europe'.
27. Duch, 'Tolerating Economic Reform'; Evans and Whitefield, 'The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment'; Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Polities in East Central Europe'.
28. Duch, 'Tolerating Economic Reform'; Evans and Whitefield, 'The Politics and Economics of Democratic Commitment'; Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Polities in East Central Europe'.
29. Floyd H. Allport, Theories of Perception and the Concept of Structure (New York: Wiley, 1955); Egon Brunswik, Wahrnehmung und Gegenstandswelt (Leipzig and Vienna: Deuticke, 1934); Fritz Heider, The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations (New York: Wiley, 1958).
30. Floyd H. Allport, Theories of Perception and the Concept of Structure (New York: Wiley, 1955); Egon Brunswik, Wahrnehmung und Gegenstandswelt (Leipzig and Vienna: Deuticke, 1934); Fritz Heider, The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations (New York: Wiley, 1958).
31. Floyd H. Allport, Theories of Perception and the Concept of Structure (New York: Wiley, 1955); Egon Brunswik, Wahrnehmung und Gegenstandswelt (Leipzig and Vienna: Deuticke, 1934); Fritz Heider, The Psychology of Interpersonal Relations (New York: Wiley, 1958).
32. Thomas Holbrook and James C. Garand, 'Homo Economus? Economic Information and Economic Voting', Political Research Quarterly, 49 (1996), 351-75; Krause, 'Voters, Information Heterogeneity, and the Dynamics of Aggregate Economic Expectations'.
33. Thomas Holbrook and James C. Garand, 'Homo Economus? Economic Information and Economic Voting', Political Research Quarterly, 49 (1996), 351-75; Krause, 'Voters, Information Heterogeneity, and the Dynamics of Aggregate Economic Expectations'.
34. See, e.g., Robert Luskin, 'Measuring Political Sophistication', American Journal of Political Science, 31 (1987), 856-99; Michael B. MacKuen and Calvin Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments' (paper presented at the Workshop on the Economy and Political Behaviour, Rice University, 1995); William R. Neuman, The Paradox of Mass Politics: Knowledge and Opinion in the American Electorate (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1986); John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
35. See, e.g., Robert Luskin, 'Measuring Political Sophistication', American Journal of Political Science, 31 (1987), 856-99; Michael B. MacKuen and Calvin Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments' (paper presented at the Workshop on the Economy and Political Behaviour, Rice University, 1995); William R. Neuman, The Paradox of Mass Politics: Knowledge and Opinion in the American Electorate (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1986); John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
36. See, e.g., Robert Luskin, 'Measuring Political Sophistication', American Journal of Political Science, 31 (1987), 856-99; Michael B. MacKuen and Calvin Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments' (paper presented at the Workshop on the Economy and Political Behaviour, Rice University, 1995); William R. Neuman, The Paradox of Mass Politics: Knowledge and Opinion in the American Electorate (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1986); John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
37. See, e.g., Robert Luskin, 'Measuring Political Sophistication', American Journal of Political Science, 31 (1987), 856-99; Michael B. MacKuen and Calvin Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments' (paper presented at the Workshop on the Economy and Political Behaviour, Rice University, 1995); William R. Neuman, The Paradox of Mass Politics: Knowledge and Opinion in the American Electorate (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1986); John Zaller, The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1992).
38. Christopher Wlezien, Mark Franklin and Daniel Twiggs, 'Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity', Political Behavior, 19 (1997), 7-17; Christopher J. Anderson and Raymond M. Duch, 'Comparing Economic Realities and Voter Responses' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); MacKuen and Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments'.
39. Christopher Wlezien, Mark Franklin and Daniel Twiggs, 'Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity', Political Behavior, 19 (1997), 7-17; Christopher J. Anderson and Raymond M. Duch, 'Comparing Economic Realities and Voter Responses' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); MacKuen and Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments'.
40. Christopher Wlezien, Mark Franklin and Daniel Twiggs, 'Economic Perceptions and Vote Choice: Disentangling the Endogeneity', Political Behavior, 19 (1997), 7-17; Christopher J. Anderson and Raymond M. Duch, 'Comparing Economic Realities and Voter Responses' (paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, 1996); MacKuen and Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments'.
41. Clarke et al., Controversies in Political Economy.
42. Gerald Kramer, 'The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate-Versus Individual-Level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting', American Political Science Review, 77 (1983), 92-111.
43. Clarke et al., Controversies in Political Economy.
44. Haller and Norpoth, 'Let the Good Times Roll'.
45. Ada W. Finifter, 'Attitudes Toward Individual Responsibility and Political Reform in the Former Soviet Union', American Political Science Review, 90 (1996), 138-52.
46. See, e.g., William G. Chase and Herbert A. Simon, 'The Mind's Eye in Chess', in William G. Chase, ed., Visual Information Processing (Orlando, Fla.: Academic Press, 1973); D. A. Hinsley, J. R. Hayes and Herbert A. Simon, 'From Words to Equations: Meaning and Representation in Algebra Word Problems', in M. A. Just and P. S. Carpenter, eds, Cognitive Processes in Comprehension (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1977); J. H. Larkin, J. McDermott, D. P. Simon and H. A. Simon, 'Models of Competence in Solving Physics Problems', Science, 208 (1980), 1335-42; James Shanteau and Thomas R. Stewart, 'Why Study Expert Decision Making? Some Historical Perspectives and Comments', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53 (1992), 95-106.
47. See, e.g., William G. Chase and Herbert A. Simon, 'The Mind's Eye in Chess', in William G. Chase, ed., Visual Information Processing (Orlando, Fla.: Academic Press, 1973); D. A. Hinsley, J. R. Hayes and Herbert A. Simon, 'From Words to Equations: Meaning and Representation in Algebra Word Problems', in M. A. Just and P. S. Carpenter, eds, Cognitive Processes in Comprehension (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1977); J. H. Larkin, J. McDermott, D. P. Simon and H. A. Simon, 'Models of Competence in Solving Physics Problems', Science, 208 (1980), 1335-42; James Shanteau and Thomas R. Stewart, 'Why Study Expert Decision Making? Some Historical Perspectives and Comments', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53 (1992), 95-106.
48. See, e.g., William G. Chase and Herbert A. Simon, 'The Mind's Eye in Chess', in William G. Chase, ed., Visual Information Processing (Orlando, Fla.: Academic Press, 1973); D. A. Hinsley, J. R. Hayes and Herbert A. Simon, 'From Words to Equations: Meaning and Representation in Algebra Word Problems', in M. A. Just and P. S. Carpenter, eds, Cognitive Processes in Comprehension (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1977); J. H. Larkin, J. McDermott, D. P. Simon and H. A. Simon, 'Models of Competence in Solving Physics Problems', Science, 208 (1980), 1335-42; James Shanteau and Thomas R. Stewart, 'Why Study Expert Decision Making? Some Historical Perspectives and Comments', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53 (1992), 95-106.
49. See, e.g., William G. Chase and Herbert A. Simon, 'The Mind's Eye in Chess', in William G. Chase, ed., Visual Information Processing (Orlando, Fla.: Academic Press, 1973); D. A. Hinsley, J. R. Hayes and Herbert A. Simon, 'From Words to Equations: Meaning and Representation in Algebra Word Problems', in M. A. Just and P. S. Carpenter, eds, Cognitive Processes in Comprehension (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1977); J. H. Larkin, J. McDermott, D. P. Simon and H. A. Simon, 'Models of Competence in Solving Physics Problems', Science, 208 (1980), 1335-42; James Shanteau and Thomas R. Stewart, 'Why Study Expert Decision Making? Some Historical Perspectives and Comments', Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 53 (1992), 95-106.
50. Fiske, Kinder and Larter, 'The Novice and the Expert'; Fiske and Kinder, 'Involvement, Expertise, and Schema Use'. See also Philip E. Converse, 'Public Opinion and Voting Behaviour', in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds, Handbook of Political Science, Vol. 4 (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975), p. 97.
51. Fiske, Kinder and Larter, 'The Novice and the Expert'; Fiske and Kinder, 'Involvement, Expertise, and Schema Use'. See also Philip E. Converse, 'Public Opinion and Voting Behaviour', in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds, Handbook of Political Science, Vol. 4 (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975), p. 97.
52. Fiske, Kinder and Larter, 'The Novice and the Expert'; Fiske and Kinder, 'Involvement, Expertise, and Schema Use'. See also Philip E. Converse, 'Public Opinion and Voting Behaviour', in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds, Handbook of Political Science, Vol. 4 (Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley, 1975), p. 97.
53. Two scenarios are conceivable: early on, the transition process may impede people's ability to develop expertise; or people may react rationally to the changing context after some time by using new information to update their expectations about regime performance - that is, they may become
54. Geoffrey Evans and Stephen Whitefield, 'Identifying the Bases of Party Competition in Eastern Europe', British Journal of Political Science, 23 (1993), 521-48; Stephen Whitefield and Geoffrey Evans, 'The Russian Election of 1993: Public Opinion and the Transition Experience', Post-Soviet Affairs, 10 (1994), 38-60.
55. Geoffrey Evans and Stephen Whitefield, 'Identifying the Bases of Party Competition in Eastern Europe', British Journal of Political Science, 23 (1993), 521-48; Stephen Whitefield and Geoffrey Evans, 'The Russian Election of 1993: Public Opinion and the Transition Experience', Post-Soviet Affairs, 10 (1994), 38-60.
56. Whitefield and Evans, 'The Russian Election of 1993', p. 39.
57. Adam Przeworski, Democracy and the Market (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1991).
58. Whitefield and Evans, 'The Russian Election of 1993', p. 39.
59. Gennady M. Denisovsky, Polina M. Kozyreva and Mikhail S. Matskovsky, 'Twelve Percent of Hope: Economic Consciousness and a Market Economy', in Arthur H. Miller, William M. Reisinger and Vicki L. Hesli, eds, Public Opinion and Regime Change: The New Politics of Post-Soviet Societies (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1993), p. 224.
60. Finifter, 'Attitudes Toward Individual Responsibility and Political Reform in the Former Soviet Union'.
61. Richard Rose, 'Escaping from Absolute Dissatisfaction: A Trial-and-Error Model for Change in Eastern Europe', Journal of Theoretical Politics, 4 (1992), 371-93. James Gibson's research on individual-level attitudes towards democracy and the market economy echoes this theme and tests (F'note continued) it explicitly (Gibson, 'Political and Economic Markets'). On the basis of panel surveys conducted in Russia and Ukraine in 1990 and 1992, Gibson (p. 981) finds that while political attitudes are fairly stable over the two years, 'economic attitudes changed markedly.' Noting the differences in attitudes towards markets between Russia and the Ukraine, he suggests that 'at least some of this change was due to the experience Russians accumulated with a market economy'. Thus lending support to our argument that attitudes undergo significant change during periods of transition, he goes on to say that the findings indicate 'that the transformation process should not be treated as a single period. What was true of attitudes in 1990 was not true in 1992' (Gibson, 'Political and Economic Markets', p. 982).
62. Richard Rose, 'Escaping from Absolute Dissatisfaction: A Trial-and-Error Model for Change in Eastern Europe', Journal of Theoretical Politics, 4 (1992), 371-93. James Gibson's research on individual-level attitudes towards democracy and the market economy echoes this theme and tests (F'note continued) it explicitly (Gibson, 'Political and Economic Markets'). On the basis of panel surveys conducted in Russia and Ukraine in 1990 and 1992, Gibson (p. 981) finds that while political attitudes are fairly stable over the two years, 'economic attitudes changed markedly.' Noting the differences in attitudes towards markets between Russia and the Ukraine, he suggests that 'at least some of this change was due to the experience Russians accumulated with a market economy'. Thus lending support to our argument that attitudes undergo significant change during periods of transition, he goes on to say that the findings indicate 'that the transformation process should not be treated as a single period. What was true of attitudes in 1990 was not true in 1992' (Gibson, 'Political and Economic Markets', p. 982).
63. Richard Rose, 'Escaping from Absolute Dissatisfaction: A Trial-and-Error Model for Change in Eastern Europe', Journal of Theoretical Politics, 4 (1992), 371-93. James Gibson's research on individual-level attitudes towards democracy and the market economy echoes this theme and tests (F'note continued) it explicitly (Gibson, 'Political and Economic Markets'). On the basis of panel surveys conducted in Russia and Ukraine in 1990 and 1992, Gibson (p. 981) finds that while political attitudes are fairly stable over the two years, 'economic attitudes changed markedly.' Noting the differences in attitudes towards markets between Russia and the Ukraine, he suggests that 'at least some of this change was due to the experience Russians accumulated with a market economy'. Thus lending support to our argument that attitudes undergo significant change during periods of transition, he goes on to say that the findings indicate 'that the transformation process should not be treated as a single period. What was true of attitudes in 1990 was not true in 1992' (Gibson, 'Political and Economic Markets', p. 982).
64. Bradley C. Scharf, Politics and Change in East Germany: An Evaluation of Socialist Democracy (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1984).
65. Karl Kaltenthaler and Christopher Anderson, 'The Domestic Politics of the Post-Unification Era: Polities, History, and Economy', in Christopher Anderson, Karl Kaltenthaler and Wolfgang Luthardt, eds, The Domestic Politics of German Unification (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1993).
66. For a discussion, see Neil Beck, 'Time-Varying Parameter Regression Models', American Journal of Political Science, 28 (1984), 557-600.
67. See, e.g., James Alt, 'Ambiguous Intervention: The Role of Government Action in Public Evaluations of the Economy', in Helmut Norpoth, Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Jean-Dominique Lafay, eds, Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991). Alt's study examines government intervention (government policy events) as a link between the objective economy and economic perceptions. However, as Alt (p. 249) himself points out, 'The largest empirical problem with such event studies is that there is no way to demonstrate (other than through consistency of results) that the impact of the designated event in some month really stemmed from that event, and not from something else happening that month, let alone random variation.' See also MacKuen, More Than News.
68. See, e.g., James Alt, 'Ambiguous Intervention: The Role of Government Action in Public Evaluations of the Economy', in Helmut Norpoth, Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Jean-Dominique Lafay, eds, Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1991). Alt's study examines government intervention (government policy events) as a link between the objective economy and economic perceptions. However, as Alt (p. 249) himself points out, 'The largest empirical problem with such event studies is that there is no way to demonstrate (other than through consistency of results) that the impact of the designated event in some month really stemmed from that event, and not from something else happening that month, let alone random variation.' See also MacKuen, More Than News.
69. Note, however, that the simple model tested is consistent with Alt's study: if a general learning process indeed takes place, citizens should be better able to process any kind of economic information, including that generated by government actions, after some time has passed. Thus, one can think of political and media variables as mediating factors in such models of economic perceptions.
70. M. Stephen Weatherford, 'Economic Voting and the "Symbolic Politics" Argument: A Reinterpretation and Synthesis', American Political Science Review, 77 (1983), 158-74; MacKuen and Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments'.
71. M. Stephen Weatherford, 'Economic Voting and the "Symbolic Politics" Argument: A Reinterpretation and Synthesis', American Political Science Review, 77 (1983), 158-74; MacKuen and Mouw, 'Social Class and Economic Judgments'.
72. See, e.g., Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Politics in East Central Europe'; Pacek and Radcliff, 'The Political Economy of Competitive Elections in the Developing World'; Karen Remmer, 'The Political Impact of Economic Crises in Latin America in the 1980s', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 777-800.
73. See, e.g., Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Politics in East Central Europe'; Pacek and Radcliff, 'The Political Economy of Competitive Elections in the Developing World'; Karen Remmer, 'The Political Impact of Economic Crises in Latin America in the 1980s', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 777-800.
74. See, e.g., Pacek, 'Macroeconomic Conditions and Electoral Politics in East Central Europe'; Pacek and Radcliff, 'The Political Economy of Competitive Elections in the Developing World'; Karen Remmer, 'The Political Impact of Economic Crises in Latin America in the 1980s', American Political Science Review, 85 (1991), 777-800.
75. Christopher Anderson, Blaming the Government: Citizens and the Economy in Five European Democracies (Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe, 1995).
76. Christopher J. Anderson, 'The Dynamics of Public Support for Coalition Governments', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 350-83; G. Bingham Powell and Guy Whitten, 'A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 391-414.
77. Christopher J. Anderson, 'The Dynamics of Public Support for Coalition Governments', Comparative Political Studies, 28 (1995), 350-83; G. Bingham Powell and Guy Whitten, 'A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context', American Journal of Political Science, 37 (1993), 391-414.
78. See also Susan C. Stokes, 'Introduction: Public Opinion and Market Reforms: The Limits of Economic Voting', Comparative Political Studies, 29 (1996), 499-519.
79. Holbrook and Garand, 'Homo Economus?'