메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 287, Issue 5461, 2000, Pages 2246-2250

Simulation of early 20th century global warming

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; GLOBAL WARMING;

EID: 0034708627     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5461.2246     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (228)

References (29)
  • 2
    • 0029663322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • B. D. Santer et al., Nature 382, 39 (1996).
    • (1996) Nature , vol.382 , pp. 39
    • Santer, B.D.1
  • 14
    • 0343251862 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • For fully overlapping 35-year periods from model years 101 to 1000 (i.e., years 101-135, 102-136, . . ., 966-1000), we projected the model output onto the same grid used for the observations. The model output was then sampled according to the temporal and spatial distribution of observed data over the period 1910-1944 to form global mean, annual mean time series from which linear trends are calculated. This yielded a set of 866 trends of duration 35 years. We then randomly selected six samples of nonoverlapping 35-year periods and computed the difference between the trend in the first sample and the mean of the trends for the other five samples. This process was repeated one million times to produce a distribution of differences between a single trend (realization) and five-member ensemble means. Using this distribution, we then evaluated how likely the difference is between the trend corresponding to the observations (viewed as a single realization) and the five-member ensemble mean trend. Differences equal to or exceeding 0.32 K/year (the difference between the observed trend and the ensemble mean model trend) occurred in 4.8% of the cases, indicating the likelihood that the observed trend is consistent with the model ensemble. This assessment depends on the assumption that internal variability in the five transient runs is similar to that in the control run.
  • 15
    • 0342817287 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • The ensemble mean trend from the five GHG-plus-sulfate experiments (n = 5) was compared with the observed trend (n = 1) at each grid point (with sufficient temporal coverage), using a local two-sided two-sample t test. The population variance for the t test was estimated from 35-year trends as simulated in the 900-year control integration. For the t test, we assumed 25 degrees of freedom, based on the number of nonoverlapping 35-year chunks in the control integration. Assuming only 20 degrees of freedom, the percent area rejecting the null hypothesis decreases only slightly (from 27 to 26%).
  • 17
    • 0022166328 scopus 로고
    • J. C. Rogers, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 24, 1303 (1985); C. Fu, H. F. Diaz, D. Dong, J. O. Fletcher, Int. J. Climatol. 19, 581 (1999).
    • (1985) J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. , vol.24 , pp. 1303
    • Rogers, J.C.1
  • 22
    • 0040896800 scopus 로고
    • _, R. S. Bradley, Nature 378, 266 (1995); T. L. Delworth and M. E. Mann, Clim. Dyn., in press.
    • (1995) Nature , vol.378 , pp. 266
    • Bradley, R.S.1
  • 29
    • 0343687519 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • note
    • We thank M. Allen, J. Anderson, A. Broccoli, K. Dixon, G. Hegerl, I. Held, P. Kushner, J. Mahlman, S. Manabe, and R. Stouffer for helpful contributions at various stages of the work.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.