-
1
-
-
0032876137
-
-
P. D. Jones, M. New, D. E. Parker, S. Martin, I. G. Rigor, Rev. Geophys. 37, 173 (1999).
-
(1999)
Rev. Geophys.
, vol.37
, pp. 173
-
-
Jones, P.D.1
New, M.2
Parker, D.E.3
Martin, S.4
Rigor, I.G.5
-
2
-
-
0029663322
-
-
B. D. Santer et al., Nature 382, 39 (1996).
-
(1996)
Nature
, vol.382
, pp. 39
-
-
Santer, B.D.1
-
4
-
-
0033542448
-
-
S. F. B. Tett, P. A. Stott, M. R. Allen, W. J. Ingram, J. F. B. Mitchell, Nature 399, 569 (1999).
-
(1999)
Nature
, vol.399
, pp. 569
-
-
Tett, S.F.B.1
Stott, P.A.2
Allen, M.R.3
Ingram, W.J.4
Mitchell, J.F.B.5
-
9
-
-
0028981332
-
-
J. F. B. Mitchell, T. C. Johns, J. M. Gregory, S. F. B. Tett, Nature 376, 501 (1995).
-
(1995)
Nature
, vol.376
, pp. 501
-
-
Mitchell, J.F.B.1
Johns, T.C.2
Gregory, J.M.3
Tett, S.F.B.4
-
10
-
-
0029543409
-
-
J. F. B. Mitchell, R. A. Davis, W. J. Ingram, C. A. Senior, J. Clim. 8, 2364 (1995).
-
(1995)
J. Clim.
, vol.8
, pp. 2364
-
-
Mitchell, J.F.B.1
Davis, R.A.2
Ingram, W.J.3
Senior, C.A.4
-
11
-
-
0031170961
-
-
J. M. Haywood, R. J. Stouffer, R. T. Wetherald, S. Manabe, V. Ramaswamy, Geophys. Res. Lett. 24, 1335 (1997).
-
(1997)
Geophys. Res. Lett.
, vol.24
, pp. 1335
-
-
Haywood, J.M.1
Stouffer, R.J.2
Wetherald, R.T.3
Manabe, S.4
Ramaswamy, V.5
-
12
-
-
0000953001
-
-
T. R. Knutson, T. L. Delworth, K. W. Dixon, R. J. Stouffer, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 30981 (1999).
-
(1999)
J. Geophys. Res.
, vol.104
, pp. 30981
-
-
Knutson, T.R.1
Delworth, T.L.2
Dixon, K.W.3
Stouffer, R.J.4
-
13
-
-
0028560913
-
-
D. E. Parker, P. D. Jones, A. Bevan, C. K. Folland, J. Geophys. Res. 99, 14373 (1994).
-
(1994)
J. Geophys. Res.
, vol.99
, pp. 14373
-
-
Parker, D.E.1
Jones, P.D.2
Bevan, A.3
Folland, C.K.4
-
14
-
-
0343251862
-
-
note
-
For fully overlapping 35-year periods from model years 101 to 1000 (i.e., years 101-135, 102-136, . . ., 966-1000), we projected the model output onto the same grid used for the observations. The model output was then sampled according to the temporal and spatial distribution of observed data over the period 1910-1944 to form global mean, annual mean time series from which linear trends are calculated. This yielded a set of 866 trends of duration 35 years. We then randomly selected six samples of nonoverlapping 35-year periods and computed the difference between the trend in the first sample and the mean of the trends for the other five samples. This process was repeated one million times to produce a distribution of differences between a single trend (realization) and five-member ensemble means. Using this distribution, we then evaluated how likely the difference is between the trend corresponding to the observations (viewed as a single realization) and the five-member ensemble mean trend. Differences equal to or exceeding 0.32 K/year (the difference between the observed trend and the ensemble mean model trend) occurred in 4.8% of the cases, indicating the likelihood that the observed trend is consistent with the model ensemble. This assessment depends on the assumption that internal variability in the five transient runs is similar to that in the control run.
-
-
-
-
15
-
-
0342817287
-
-
note
-
The ensemble mean trend from the five GHG-plus-sulfate experiments (n = 5) was compared with the observed trend (n = 1) at each grid point (with sufficient temporal coverage), using a local two-sided two-sample t test. The population variance for the t test was estimated from 35-year trends as simulated in the 900-year control integration. For the t test, we assumed 25 degrees of freedom, based on the number of nonoverlapping 35-year chunks in the control integration. Assuming only 20 degrees of freedom, the percent area rejecting the null hypothesis decreases only slightly (from 27 to 26%).
-
-
-
-
17
-
-
0022166328
-
-
J. C. Rogers, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 24, 1303 (1985); C. Fu, H. F. Diaz, D. Dong, J. O. Fletcher, Int. J. Climatol. 19, 581 (1999).
-
(1985)
J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol.
, vol.24
, pp. 1303
-
-
Rogers, J.C.1
-
18
-
-
0032866492
-
-
J. C. Rogers, J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol. 24, 1303 (1985); C. Fu, H. F. Diaz, D. Dong, J. O. Fletcher, Int. J. Climatol. 19, 581 (1999).
-
(1999)
Int. J. Climatol.
, vol.19
, pp. 581
-
-
Fu, C.1
Diaz, H.F.2
Dong, D.3
Fletcher, J.O.4
-
22
-
-
0040896800
-
-
_, R. S. Bradley, Nature 378, 266 (1995); T. L. Delworth and M. E. Mann, Clim. Dyn., in press.
-
(1995)
Nature
, vol.378
, pp. 266
-
-
Bradley, R.S.1
-
25
-
-
0000704981
-
-
J. Houghton et al., Eds. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge
-
A. Kattenberg et al., in Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, J. Houghton et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1996), pp. 285-357.
-
(1996)
Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change
, pp. 285-357
-
-
Kattenberg, A.1
-
27
-
-
0040896806
-
-
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, UK
-
M. R. Allen, P. A. Stott, J. F. B. Mitchell, R. Schnur, T. L. Delworth, Technical Report RAL-TR-1999-084 (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, UK, 1999).
-
(1999)
Technical Report RAL-TR-1999-084
-
-
Allen, M.R.1
Stott, P.A.2
Mitchell, J.F.B.3
Schnur, R.4
Delworth, T.L.5
-
28
-
-
0039206509
-
-
in press
-
P. A. Stott, S. F. B. Tett, G. A. Jones, M. R. Allen, W. J. Ingram, J. F. B. Mitchell, Clim. Dyn., in press.
-
Clim. Dyn.
-
-
Stott, P.A.1
Tett, S.F.B.2
Jones, G.A.3
Allen, M.R.4
Ingram, W.J.5
Mitchell, J.F.B.6
-
29
-
-
0343687519
-
-
note
-
We thank M. Allen, J. Anderson, A. Broccoli, K. Dixon, G. Hegerl, I. Held, P. Kushner, J. Mahlman, S. Manabe, and R. Stouffer for helpful contributions at various stages of the work.
-
-
-
|