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The National Research Council (NRC) report Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (65) provides a more comprehensive treatment of abrupt climate change, with over 650 references. The members of the Panel on Abrupt Climate Change, which prepared the NRC report, are the authors of this review. The recommendations of the NRC report: Improve the fundamental knowledge base, modeling, instrumental and paleoclimatic data, and statistical approaches related to abrupt climate change, and investigate "noregrets" strategies to reduce vulnerability. The report is available at http://books.nap.edu/books/0309074347/html/l.html#pagetop.
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One prominent warm interval was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (68), which began with warming over perhaps 10,000 to 20,000 years or faster of about 4° to 8°C in high-latitude ocean surface temperatures and 4° to 6°C in bottom-water temperatures from conditions that were already warmer and with an equator-to-pole temperature gradient that was smaller than occurred recently. A change in location of deep-water formation may have led to massive destabilization of methane hydrate in sea-floor sediments. Impacts included extinction of 30 to 50% of benthic foraminifera and subtropical drying.
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Freshening may be arising from one or more processes, including increased high-latitude precipitation or fraction of precipitation running off the land (69), melting of sea or land ice, or changes in wind-driven or other exchange with the Arctic Ocean; the complexity is challenging for modern observations and models (16).
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Seager et al. (70) emphasized that the relative warmth of the northeastern versus northwestern Atlantic arises only in part from the thermohaline circulation; thus, any discussions of the possible effects of a thermohaline shutdown that cite the Norway-Canada difference may be overstated. Nonetheless, the thermohaline circulation does transport much heat to, and affect the climate of, the North Atlantic (4, 70). The tendency of many models to underestimate abrupt paleoclimatic changes leaves open the possibility that other discussions have underestimated the potential effects of a thermohatine shutdown. The need for improved research to address these issues is clear.
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We thank NRC staff (A. Isern, J. Dandelski, C. Effring, M. Gopnik, M. Kelly, J. Bachim, A. Carlisle), the U.S. Global Change Research Program and the Yale National Bureau of Economic Research on International Environmental Economics for study funding, sponsors of our research (including NSF OPP 0087160 to R.B.A.), the community of researchers studying abrupt climate change who made this possible, and especially D. Bradford, W. Curry, and K. Keller for helpful comments.
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