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Volumn 299, Issue 5615, 2003, Pages 2005-2010

Abrupt climate change

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATOLOGY; EARTH (PLANET); ECOSYSTEMS; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT;

EID: 0037471002     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.1081056     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (979)

References (74)
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    • The National Research Council (NRC) report Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises (65) provides a more comprehensive treatment of abrupt climate change, with over 650 references. The members of the Panel on Abrupt Climate Change, which prepared the NRC report, are the authors of this review. The recommendations of the NRC report: Improve the fundamental knowledge base, modeling, instrumental and paleoclimatic data, and statistical approaches related to abrupt climate change, and investigate "noregrets" strategies to reduce vulnerability. The report is available at http://books.nap.edu/books/0309074347/html/l.html#pagetop.
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    • North Atlantic records show a repeated pattern, often with ∼1500-year spacing, of abrupt warming followed by gradual cooling, abrupt cooling, and a few cold centuries. Generally cold, dry, and windy conditions occurred together across much of the Earth, although with antiphase behavior in some far southern regions. The anomalously mild times following the abrupt warmings are often called Dansgaard/Oeschger (DO) events, but here we follow some workers in referring to the DO oscillation, without necessarily implying strict periodicity (6). At least some of the cold phases immediately followed floods or ice-sheet surges into the North Atlantic (4), including a centennial cold event about 8200 years ago with widespread impacts (45) that immediately followed a large outburst flood from a lake dammed by the melting ice sheet in Hudson Bay (67).
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    • One prominent warm interval was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (68), which began with warming over perhaps 10,000 to 20,000 years or faster of about 4° to 8°C in high-latitude ocean surface temperatures and 4° to 6°C in bottom-water temperatures from conditions that were already warmer and with an equator-to-pole temperature gradient that was smaller than occurred recently. A change in location of deep-water formation may have led to massive destabilization of methane hydrate in sea-floor sediments. Impacts included extinction of 30 to 50% of benthic foraminifera and subtropical drying.
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    • note
    • We thank NRC staff (A. Isern, J. Dandelski, C. Effring, M. Gopnik, M. Kelly, J. Bachim, A. Carlisle), the U.S. Global Change Research Program and the Yale National Bureau of Economic Research on International Environmental Economics for study funding, sponsors of our research (including NSF OPP 0087160 to R.B.A.), the community of researchers studying abrupt climate change who made this possible, and especially D. Bradford, W. Curry, and K. Keller for helpful comments.


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.