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The Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environment Monitoring (Roshydromet) moniors the discharge of Russian arctic rivers. We have compiled and digitized this database, which is available on our Web site (www.r-arcticnet.sr. unh.edu/) and from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (http//nsidc.org) The downstream stations from which the data in this paper come have been monitored almost continuously from 1936 to 1999, despite a general decline in the arctic hydrologic monitoring network that began in the mid 1980s (29). Roshydromet considers these stations to be of primary importance because of their proximity to the ocean. Stage height readings to the nearest centimeter were made daily, and cross-channel measurements, of discharge for rating curve calibrations were made 2S to 30 times per year in each river. With these frequent calibrations, estimates of daily discharge from the rating curves were accurate to ±S%.
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The statistical strength of the temporal trend in combined river discharge from the Eurasian arctic is greater than for individual rivers, because the estiated slope for the sum increases with the number of rivers but the standard error of this estimate increases only with the square root of the number of rivers. This leads to a more powerful test of the null hypothesis of no trend.
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Global temperature changes were calculated using data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/), and temperature changes for the pan-arctic and Eurasian arctic were calculated using the database of New et al. (30).
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2242480366
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HSP is defined in (4). In addition to river runoff, the Atlantic HSP includes meltwater from sea and continental ice and precipitation minus evaporation (P - E) over the ocean. The difference between basing hydrologic sensitivity on global or hemispheric temperature is small, because in greenhouse gas-induced warming, both hemispheres warm by similar amounts. When linking hydrologic changes to local temperature, such as for Greenland, one needs to take into account that local warming over Greenland could be twice the global mean; a ∼10% accumulaion increase per °C of local warming over Greenland, as found in Greenland Ice Core Project and Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 ice core data, is then consistent with the slope shown in Fig. 4.
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2242441044
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3/year for the two rivers, respectively, but neither is a statistically significant result. However, temperature trends over North America that are similar to Eurasian trends over the past century support potential arctic-wide increases in river discharge (30).
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2242425590
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Modeling studies predict substantial increases in freshwater contributions from the Greenland ice sheet (31, 32). Although arctic glaciers and sea ice are much smaller in volume than the Greenland ice sheet, additional freshwater could be derived from their meltdown (33, 34). Finally, P - E over the Artic Ocean appears to have increased over the past century and is expected to continue to increase in the future (19).
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We gratefully acknowledge the efforts of the personnel of the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environment Monitoring. We thank A. Solow of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute for thoughtful comments and advice on statistical analyses and R. Alley, I. Belkin, T. Stocker, D. Schindler, M. Stieglitz, and G. Holloway for their insights and advice. Supported by the Arctic System Science Program of NSF (grants NSF-OPP-9S24740, NSF-OPP-9B18199, and NSF-OPP-0229302) and NASA (NASA EOS grant NAGS-6137).
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