Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

Environmental Research Letters

Volumn 12, Issue 11, 2017, Pages

  Zhang, Yuqiang ^a,b   Smith, Steven J ^c   Bowden, Jared H ^a,d   Adelman, Zachariah ^a   West, J Jason ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA   (United States)

^b U S ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY   (United States)

^c PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^d NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

air quality, premature mortality; climate change; co benefits; greenhouse gas; ozone; particulate matter

Indexed keywords

AIR QUALITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; EMISSION CONTROL; GAS EMISSIONS; HEALTH; OZONE;

ANCILLARY BENEFITS; CO BENEFITS; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING; GREENHOUSE GAS MITIGATION; PARTICULATE MATTER; PREMATURE MORTALITY; RESIDENTIAL SECTORS;

GREENHOUSE GASES;

AIR QUALITY; CARBON EMISSION; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONTINGENT VALUATION; EMISSION CONTROL; ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; GREENHOUSE GAS; MORTALITY; OZONE; PARTICULATE MATTER; PUBLIC HEALTH;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 85036468225     PISSN: 17489318     EISSN: 17489326     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8f76     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Anenberg S C, West J J, Fiore A M, Jaffe D A, Prather M, Bergmann D, Cuvelier K and Dentener F J 2009 Intercontinental impacts of ozone pollution on human mortality Environ. Sci. Technol. 43 6482-7
2. Anenberg S C et al 2014 Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality Air Qual. Atmos. Health 7 369-79
3. Bell M L, Goldberg R, Hogrefe C, Kinney P L, Knowlton K, Lynn B, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C and Patz J A 2007 Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities Clim. Change 82 61-76
4. Bell M L, Davis D L, Cifuentes L A, Krupnick A J, Morgenstern R D and Thurston G D 2008 Ancillary human health benefits of improved air quality resulting from climate change mitigation Environ. Health 7 41
5. Bowden J H, Otte T L, Nolte C G and Otte M J 2012 Examining interior grid nudging techniques using two-way nesting in the WRF model for regional climate modeling J. Clim. 25 2805-23
6. Bowden J H, Nolte C G and Otte T L 2013 Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2 m temperature and precipitation climatology Clim. Dyn. 40 1903-20
7. Byun D and Schere K L 2006 Review of the governing equations, computational algorithms, and other components of the Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system Appl. Mech. Rev. 59 51
8. Caiazzo F, Ashok A, Waitz I A, Yim S H L and Barrett S R H 2013 Air pollution and early deaths in the United States. Part I: quantifying the impact of major sectors in 2005 Atmos. Environ. 79 198-208
9. Capps S L, Driscoll C T, Fakhraei H, Templer P H, Craig K J, Milford J B and Lambert K F 2016 Estimating potential productivity cobenefits for crops and trees from reduced ozone with US coal power plant carbon standards J. Geophys. Res. 121 14 679-90
10. Clarke L E, Edmonds J A, Jacoby H D, Pitcher H M, Reilly J M and Richels R G 2007 Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations Program 2011 164
11. Cifuentes L, Borja-aburto V H, Gouveia N, Thurston G and Davis D L 2001 Hidden health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation Science 293 1257-9
12. Chuwah C, Noije T V, Vuuren D P V, Stehfest E and Hazeleger W 2015 Global impacts of surface ozone changes on crop yields and land use Atmos. Environ. 106 11-23
13. Deser C, Knutti R, Solomon S and Phillips A S 2012 Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate Nat. Clim. Change 2 775-9
14. Donner L J et al 2011 The dynamical core, physical parameterizations, and basic simulation characteristics of the atmospheric component AM3 of the GFDL global coupled model CM3 J. Clim. 24 3484-519
15. Driscoll C T, Buonocore J J, Levy J I, Lambert K F, Burtraw D, Reid S B, Fakhraei H and Schwartz J 2015 US power plant carbon standards and clean air and health co-benefits Nat. Clim. Change 5 535-40
16. Duncan B N, West J J, Yoshida Y, Fiore A M and Ziemke J R 2008 The influence of European pollution on ozone in the near East and Northern Africa Atmos. Chem. Phys. 8 2267-83
17. Fang Y, Mauzerall D L, Liu J, Fiore A M and Horowitz L W 2013 Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality Clim. Change 121 239-53
18. Fann N, Baker K R and Fulcher C M 2012 Characterizing the PM2.5-related health benefits of emission reductions for 17 industrial, area and mobile emission sectors across the US Environ. Int. 49 141-51
19. Fann N, Fulcher C M and Baker K 2013 The recent and future health burden of air pollution apportioned across US sectors Environ. Sci. Technol. 47 3580-9
20. Fann N, Nolte C G, Dolwick P, Spero T L, Brown A C, Phillips S and Anenberg S 2015 The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030 J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 65 570-80
21. Fiore A M et al 2012 Global air quality and climate Chem. Soc. Rev. 41 6663-83
22. Fiore A M, Naik V and Leibensperger E M 2015 Air quality and climate connections J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 65 645-85
23. Friel S et al 2009 Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: food and agriculture The Lancet 374 2016-25
24. Houyoux M R, Vukovich J M, Coats C J, Wheeler N J M and Kasibhatla P S 2000 Emission inventory development and processing for the Seasonal Model for Regional Air Quality (SMRAQ) project J. Geophys. Res. 105 9079
25. Hughes B B, Kuhn R, Peterson C M, Rothman D S, Solórzano J R, Mathers C D and Dickson J R 2011 Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the International Futures integrated forecasting model Bull. World Health Organ. 89 478-86
26. Jacob D J and Winner D A 2009 Effect of climate change on air quality Atmos. Environ. 43 51-63
27. Jakob M 2006 Marginal costs and co-benefits of energy efficiency investments Energy Policy 34 172-87
28. Jerrett M, Burnett R T, Pope C A, Ito K, Thurston G, Krewski D, Shi Y, Calle E and Thun M 2009 Long-term ozone exposure and mortality New Engl. J. Med. 360 1085-95
29. Jiang X, Hong C, Zheng Y, Zheng B, Guan D, Gouldson A, Zhang Q and He K 2015 To what extent can China's near-term air pollution control policy protect air quality and human health? A case study of the Pearl River Delta region Environ. Res. Lett. 10 104006
30. Krewski D et al 2009 Extended follow-up and spatial analysis of the American Cancer Society study linking particulate air pollution and mortality Res. Rep. Heal. Eff. Inst. 140 5-36 arXiv:19627030
31. Kim Y-M, Zhou Y, Gao Y, Fu J S, Johnson B A, Huang C and Liu Y 2015 Spatially resolved estimation of ozone-related mortality in the United States under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their uncertainty Clim. Change 128 71-84
32. Laden F, Schwartz J, Speizer F E and Dockery D W 2006 Reduction in fine particulate air pollution and mortality: extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities Study Am. J. Respir. Crit. Care Med. 173 667-72
33. Lepeule J, Laden F, Dockery D and Schwartz J 2012 Chronic exposure to fine particles and mortality: an extended follow-up of the Harvard Six Cities Study from 1974-2009 Environ. Health Perspect. 120 965-70
34. Lelieveld J, Evans J S, Fnais M, Giannadaki D and Pozzer A 2015 The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale Nature 525 367-71
35. Li Y, Henze D K, Jack D and Kinney P L 2015 The influence of air quality model resolution on health impact assessment for fine particulate matter and its components Air Qual. Atmos. Health 9 51-68
36. Li Y, Henze D K, Jack D, Henderson B H and Kinney P L 2016 Assessing public health burden associated with exposure to ambient black carbon in the United States Sci. Total Environ. 539 515-25
37. Liu J, Mauzerall D L and Horowitz L W 2009 Evaluating inter-continental transport of fine aerosols: (2) global health impact Atmos. Environ. 43 4339-47
38. Markandya A, Armstrong B G, Hales S, Chiabai A, Criqui P, Mima S, Tonne C and Wilkinson P 2009 Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: low-carbon electricity generation The Lancet 374 2006-15
39. McCollum D L, Krey V, Riahi K, Kolp P, Grubler A, Makowski M and Nakicenovic N 2013 Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges Clim. Change 119 479-94
40. Morita H, Yang S, Unger N and Kinney P L 2014 Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios Environ. Sci. Technol. 48 14659-67
41. Naik V, Horowitz L W, Fiore A M, Ginoux P, Mao J, Aghedo A M and Levy H 2013 Impact of preindustrial to present-day changes in short-lived pollutant emissions on atmospheric composition and climate forcing J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118 8086-110
42. Nemet G F, Holloway T and Meier P 2010 Implications of incorporating air-quality co-benefits into climate change policymaking Environ. Res. Lett. 5 014007
43. Otte T L, Nolte C G, Otte M J and Bowden J H 2012 Does nudging squelch the extremes in regional climate modeling? J. Clim. 25 7046-66
44. Plachinski S D, Holloway T, Meier P J, Nemet G F, Rrushaj A, Oberman J T, Duran P L and Voigt C L 2014 Quantifying the emissions and air quality co-benefits of lower-carbon electricity production Atmos. Environ. 94 180-91
45. Post E S et al 2012 Variation in estimated ozone-related health impacts of climate change due to modeling choices and assumptions Environ. Health Perspect. 120 1559-64
46. Punger E M and West J J 2013 The effect of grid resolution on estimates of the burden of ozone and fine particulate matter on premature mortality in the USA Air Qual. Atmos. Health 6 563-73
47. Rao S et al 2016 A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality Environ. Res. Lett. 11 124013
48. Rao S et al 2017 Future air pollution in the shared socio-economic pathways Glob. Environ. Change 42 346-58
49. RTI International 2015 BenMAP-CE: Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition, User's Manual Appendices www2.epa.gov/benmap/manual-and-appendices-benmap-ce (Accessed: 1 December 2015)
50. Selin N E, Wu S, Nam K M, Reilly J M, Paltsev S, Prinn R G and Webster M D 2009 Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution Environ. Res. Lett. 4 044014
51. Smith K R, Woodward A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Chadee D D, Honda Y, Liu Q, Olwoch J M, Revich B and Sauerborn R 2014 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Human health: impacts, adaptation, and co-benefits 709-754 pp
52. Smith S J, West J J and Kyle P 2011 Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions Clim. Change 108 619-27
53. Skamarock W C and Klemp J B 2008 A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications J. Comput. Phys. 227 3465-85
54. Silva R A et al 2013 Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change Environ. Res. Lett. 8 34005
55. Silva R A et al 2016a The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble Atmos. Chem. Phys. 16 9847-62
56. Silva R A, Adelman Z, Fry M M and West J J 2016b The impact of individual anthropogenic emissions sectors on the global burden of human mortality due to ambient air pollution Environ. Health Perspect. 1776 1776-84
57. Sun J, Fu J S, Huang K and Gao Y 2015 Estimation of future PM2.5- and ozone-related mortality over the continental United States in a changing climate: an application of high-resolution dynamical downscaling technique J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc. 65 611-23
58. Tagaris E, Liao K-J, DeLucia A J, Deck L, Amar P and Russell A G 2009 Potential impact of climate change on air pollution-related human health effects Environ. Sci. Technol. 43 4979-88
59. Thompson T M, Rausch S, Saari R K and Selin N E 2014 A systems approach to evaluating the air quality co-benefits of US carbon policies Nat. Clim. Change 4 917-23
60. Thomson A M et al 2011 RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100 Clim. Change 109 77-94
61. Trail M A, Tsimpidi A P, Liu P, Tsigaridis K, Hu Y, Rudokas J R, Miller P J, Nenes A and Russell A G 2015 Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States Environ. Sci. Technol. 49 5133-41
62. US Environmental Protection Agency 2009 Final Report: Integrated Science Assessment for Particulate Matter (Washington, DC: US Environmental Protection Agency) EPA/600/R-08/139F
63. US Environmental Protection Agency 2013 Final Report: Integrated Science Assessment of Ozone and Related Photochemical Oxidants (Washington, DC: US Environmental Protection Agency) EPA/600/R-10/076F
64. US Environmental Protection Agency 2014 Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program - Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) www2.epa.gov/benmap
65. Weaver C P et al 2009 A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on US regional ozone concentrations Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 90 1843-63
66. West J J, Szopa S and Hauglustaine D A 2007 Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozone Comptes Rendus Geosci. 339 775-83
67. West J J, Naik V, Horowitz L W and Fiore A M 2009 Effect of regional precursor emission controls on long-range ozone transport - Part 2: steady-state changes in ozone air quality and impacts on human mortality Atmos. Chem. Phys. 9 6095-107
68. West J J, Smith S J, Silva R A, Naik V, Zhang Y, Adelman Z, Fry M M, Anenberg S, Horowitz L W and Lamarque J-F 2013 Co-benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation for future air quality and human health Nat. Clim. Change 3 885-9
69. Wilkinson P et al 2009 Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: household energy The Lancet 374 1917-29
70. Woodcock J et al 2009 Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: urban land transport The Lancet 374 1930-43
71. Woods and Poole Economics Inc 2012 Complete Demographic Database (Washington, DC: W and P Economics Inc.)
72. Yim S H L, Lee G L, Lee I H, Allroggen F, Ashok A, Caiazzo F, Eastham S D, Malina R and Barrett S R H 2015 Global, regional and local health impacts of civil aviation emissions Environ. Res. Lett. 10 034001
73. Zanobetti A and Schwartz J 2009 The effect of fine and coarse particulate air pollution on mortality: a national analysis Environ. Health Perspect 117 898-903
74. Zhang Y, Bowden J H, Adelman Z, Naik V, Horowitz L W, Smith S J and West J J 2016 Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation on US air quality in 2050 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 16 9533-48