The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Volumn 16, Issue 15, 2016, Pages 9847-9862

  Silva, Raquel A ^a   West, J Jason ^a   Lamarque, Jean François ^b   Shindell, Drew T ^c   Collins, William J ^d   Dalsoren, Stig ^e   Faluvegi, Greg ^f   Folberth, Gerd ^g   Horowitz, Larry W ^h   Nagashima, Tatsuya ⁱ   Naik, Vaishali ^h   Rumbold, Steven T ^d,g   Sudo, Kengo ^j   Takemura, Toshihiko ^k   Bergmann, Daniel ^l   Cameron Smith, Philip ^l   Cionni, Irene ^m   Doherty, Ruth M ⁿ   Eyring, Veronika ^o   Josse, Beatrice ^p   MacKenzie, Ian A ⁿ   Plummer, David ^q   Righi, Mattia ^o   Stevenson, David S ⁿ   Strode, Sarah ^r,s   Szopa, Sophie ^t   Zengast, Guang ^u   more..

^a University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill   (United States)

^b NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^c DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^e CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH OSLO CICERO   (Norway)

^f NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES   (United States)

^g MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

^h NOAA EARTH SYSTEM RESEARCH LABORATORY   (United States)

ⁱ NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES   (Japan)

^j NAGOYA UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^k KYUSHU UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^l LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

^m ENEA   (Italy)

ⁿ UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^o GERMAN AEROSPACE CENTER DLR   (Germany)

^p CENTRE NATIONAL DE RECHERCHES MÉTÉOROLOGIQUES   (France)

^q ENVIRONMENT CANADA   (Canada)

^r NASA GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER   (United States)

^s UNIVERSITIES SPACE RESEARCH ASSOCIATION   (United States)

^t LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

^u NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF WATER AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (New Zealand)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AMBIENT AIR; ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION; FUTURE PROSPECT; GROUND-BASED MEASUREMENT; MORTALITY; OZONE; PARTICULATE MATTER; POLLUTION EFFECT; PUBLIC HEALTH; RESPIRATORY DISEASE;

EID: 84981273783     PISSN: 16807316     EISSN: 16807324     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Amann, M., Klimont, Z., Wagner, F.: Regional and Global Emissions of Air Pollutants: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios, Annu. Rev. Env. Resour., 38, 31-55, doi:10.1146/annurevenviron-052912-173303, 2013.
2. Anenberg, S. C., West, J. J., Fiore, A. M., Jaffe, D. A., Prather, M. J., Bergmann, D., Cuvelier, K., Dentener, F. J., Duncan, B. N., Gauss, M., Hess, P., Jonson, J. E., Lupu, A., MacKenzie, I. A., Marmer, E., Park, R. J., Sanderson, M. G., Schultz, M., Shindell, D. T., Szopa, S., Vivanco, M. G., Wild, O., Zeng, G.: Intercontinental Impacts of Ozone Pollution on Human Mortality, Environ. Sci. Technol., 43, 6482-6487, 2009.
3. Anenberg, S. C., Horowitz, L. W., Tong, D. Q., West, J. J.: An estimate of the global burden of anthropogenic ozone and fine particulate matter on premature human mortality using atmospheric modeling, Environ. Health Perspect., 118, 1189-1195, doi:10.1289/ehp.0901220, 2010.
4. Anenberg, S. C., West, J. J., Yu, H., Chin, M., Schultz, M., Bergmann, D., Bey, I., Bian, H., Diehl, T., Fiore, A., Hess, P., Marmer, E., Montanaro, V., Park, R., Shindell, D., Takemura, T., Dentener, F.: Impacts of intercontinental transport of anthropogenic fine particulate matter on human mortality, Air. Qual. Atmos. Health., 7, 369-379, doi:10.1007/s11869-014-0248-9, 2014.
5. Apte, J. S., Marshall, J. D., Cohen, A. J., Brauer, M.: Addressing Global Mortality from Ambient PM2:5. Environ. Sci. Technol., 49, 8057-8066, doi:10.1021/acs.est.5b01236, 2015.
6. Bell, M. L., Dominici, F., Samet, J. M.: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies of Ozone and Mortality With Comparison to the National Morbidity, Mortality, Air Pollution Study, Epidemiology, 16, 436-445, 2005.
7. Bell, M. L., Goldberg, R., Hogrefe, C., Kinney, P. L., Knowlton, K., Lynn, B., Rosenthal, J., Rosenzweig, C., Patz, J. A.: Climate change, ambient ozone, health in 50 US cities, Climate Change, 82, 61-76, doi:10.1007/s10584-006-9166-7, 2007.
8. Bright, E. A., Coleman, P. R., Rose, A. N., Urban, M. L.: Land-Scan 2011, Oak Ridge National Laboratory SE, Oak Ridge, TN, 2012.
9. Brook, R. D., Rajagopalan, S., Pope, C. A., Brook, J. R., Bhatnagar, A., Diez-Roux, A. V., Holguin, F., Hong, Y., Luepker, R. V., Mittleman, M. A., Peters, A., Siscovick, D., Smith, S. C., Whitsel, L., Kaufman, J. D.: Particulate matter air pollution and cardiovascular disease: An update to the scientific statement from the American Heart Association, Circulation, 121, 2331-2378, doi:10.1161/CIR.0b013e3181dbece1, 2010.
10. Burnett, R. T., Arden Pope, C., Ezzati, M., Olives, C., Lim, S. S., Mehta, S., Shin, H. H., Singh, G., Hubbell, B., Brauer, M., Ross Anderson, H., Smith, K. R., Balmes, J. R., Bruce, N. G., Kan, H., Laden, F., Prüss-Ustün, A., Turner, M. C., Gapstur, S. M., Diver, W. R., Cohen, A.: An integrated risk function for estimating the global burden of disease attributable to ambient fine particulate matter exposure, Environ. Health Perspect., 122, 397-403, doi:10.1289/ehp.1307049, 2014.
11. Chang, H. H., Zhou, J., Fuentes, M.: Impact of Climate Change on Ambient Ozone Level and Mortality in Southeastern United States, Int. J. Environ. Res., 7, 2866-2880, doi:10.3390/ijerph7072866, 2010.
12. Doherty, R. M., Wild, O., Shindell, D. T., Zeng, G., MacKenzie, I. A., Collins, W. J., Fiore, A. M., Stevenson, D. S., Dentener, F. J., Schultz, M. G., Hess, P., Derwent, R. G., Keating, T. J.: Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: A multi-model study, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 118, 3744-3763, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50266, 2013.
13. Evans, J., van Donkelaar, A., Martin, R. V., Burnett, R., Rainham, D. G., Birkett, N. J., Krewski, D.: Estimates of global mortality attributable to particulate air pollution using satellite imagery, Environ. Res., 120, 33-42, doi:10.1016/j.envres.2012.08.005, 2013.
14. Fang, Y., Naik, V., Horowitz, L. W., Mauzerall, D. L.: Air pollution and associated human mortality: the role of air pollutant emissions, climate change and methane concentration increases from the preindustrial period to present, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 1377-1394, doi:10.5194/acp-13-1377-2013, 2013a.
15. Fang, Y., Mauzerall, D. L., Liu, J., Fiore, A. M., Horowitz, L. W.: Impacts of 21st century climate change on global air pollution-related premature mortality, Climatic Change, 121, 239-253, doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0847-8, 2013b.
16. Fann, N., Nolte, C. G., Dolwick, P., Spero, T. L., Brown, A. C., Phillips, S., Anenberg S.: The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030, J. Air Waste Manage. Assoc., 65, 570-580, doi:10.1080/10962247.2014.996270, 2015.
17. Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., Spracklen, D. V., Steiner, A., Unger, N., Prather, M., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P. J., Cionni, I., Collins, W. J., Dalsøren, S., Eyring, V., Folberth, G. A., Ginoux, P., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B., Lamarque, J.-F., MacKenzie, I. A., Nagashima, T., O'Connor, F. M., Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T., Shindell, D. T., Skeie, R. B., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Takemura, T., Zeng, G.: Global air quality and climate, Chem. Soc. Rev., 41, 6663-6683, doi:10.1039/c2cs35095e, 2012.
18. Fiore, A. M., Naik, V., Leibensperger, E. M.: Air Quality and Climate Connections, J. AirWaste Manage. Assoc., 65, 645-685, doi:10.1080/10962247.2015.1040526, 2015.
19. Forouzanfar, M. H., Alexander, L., Bachman, V. F., et al.: Global, regional, national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, The Lancet, 386, 2287-2323, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2, 2015.
20. Fuzzi, S., Baltensperger, U., Carslaw, K., Decesari, S., Denier van der Gon, H., Facchini, M. C., Fowler, D., Koren, I., Langford, B., Lohmann, U., Nemitz, E., Pandis, S., Riipinen, I., Rudich, Y., Schaap, M., Slowik, J. G., Spracklen, D. V., Vignati, E., Wild, M., Williams, M., Gilardoni, S.: Particulate matter, air quality and climate: lessons learned and future needs, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 8217-8299, doi:10.5194/acp-15-8217-2015, 2015.
21. Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx): Global Burden of Disease Study 2010-Ambient Air Pollution Risk Model 1990-2010, available at: http://ghdx.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/record/globalburden-disease-study-2010-gbd-2010-ambient-air-pollutionrisk-model-1990-2010, last access: 8 November 2013.
22. Gryparis, A., Forsberg, B., Katsouyanni, K., Analitis, A., Touloumi, G., Schwartz, J., Samoli, E., Medina, S.,erson, H. R., Niciu, E. M., Wichmann, H. E., Kriz, B., Kosnik, M., Skorkovsky, J., Vonk, J. M., Dörtbudak, Z.: Acute effects of ozone on mortality from the "Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach" project, Am. J. Resp. Crit. Care Med., 170, 1080-1087, doi:10.1164/rccm.200403-333OC, 2004.
23. Hamra, G. B., Guha, N., Cohen, A., Laden, F., Raaschou-Nielsen, O., Samet, J. M., Vineis, P., Forastiere, F., Saldiva, P., Yorifuji, T., Loomis, D.: Outdoor Particulate Matter Exposure and Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis, Environ. Health Persp., 122, 906-911, doi:10.1289/ehp.1408092, 2014.
24. Heal, M., Doherty, R., Heaviside, C., Vieno, M., Stevenson, D., Vardoulakis, S.: Health Effects due to Changes in Air Pollution under Future Scenarios, Health effects of climate change in the UK 2012, Chapter 3, 55-82, 2012.
25. Hughes, B. B., Kuhn, R., Peterson, C. M., Rothman, D. S., Solórzano, J. R., Mathers, C. D., Dickson, J. R.: Projections De Résultats En Matière De Santé Mondiale De 2005 À 2060 En Utilisant Le Modèle Prévisionnel Intégré International Futures, B. World Health Organ., 89, 478-486, doi:10.2471/BLT.10.083766, 2011.
26. Jackson, J. E., Yost, M. G., Karr, C., Fitzpatrick, C., Lamb, B. K., Chung, S. H., Chen, J., Avise, J., Rosenblatt, R. A., Fenske, R. A.: Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat, Climatic Change, 102, 159-186, doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9852-3, 2010.
27. Jacob, D. J., Winner, D. A.: Effect of climate change on air quality, Atmos. Environ., 43, 51-63, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.09.051, 2009.
28. Jerrett, M., Burnett, R. T., Pope, C. A., Ito, K., Thurston, G., Krewski, D., Shi, Y., Calle, E., Thun, M.: Long-Term Ozone Exposure and Mortality, N. Engl. J. Med., 360, 1085-1095, doi:10.1056/NEJMoa0803894, 2009.
29. Kirtman, B., Power, S. B., Adedoyin, J. A., Boer, G. J., Bojariu, R., Camilloni, I., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Fiore, A. M., Kimoto, M., Meehl, G. A., Prather, M., Sarr, A., Schär, C., Sutton, R., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vecchi, G., Wang, H. J.: Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Chapter 11). Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
30. Klimont, Z., Smith, S. J., Cofala, J.: The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000-2011 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 014003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014003, 2013.
31. Knowlton, K., Rosenthal, J. E., Hogrefe, C., Lynn, B., Gaffin, S., Goldberg, R., Rosenzweig, C., Civerolo, K., Ku, J. Y., Kinney, P. L.: Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate, Environ. Health. Persp., 112, 1557-1563, doi:10.1289/ehp.7163, 2004.
32. Knowlton, K., Hogrefe, C., Lynn, B., Rosenzweig, C., Rosenthal, J., Kinney, P. L.: Impacts of heat and ozone on mortality risk in the New York City metropolitan region under a changing climate, Adv. Glob. Change Res., 30, 143-160, 2008.
33. Krewski, D., Jerrett, M., Burnett, R. T., Ma, R., Hughes, E., Shi, Y., Turner, M. C., Pope III, C. A., Thurston, G., Calle, E. E., Thun, M. J.: Extended Follow-Up and Spatial Analysis of the American Cancer Society Study Linking Particulate Air Pollution and Mortality, Respir. Rep. Heal. Eff. Inst., 140, 5-114, 2009.
34. Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Josse, B., Young, P. J., Cionni, I., Eyring, V., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Collins,W. J., Doherty, R., Dalsoren, S., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Ghan, S. J., Horowitz, L. W., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Plummer, D., Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T., Schulz, M., Skeie, R. B., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Voulgarakis, A., Zeng, G.: The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 179-206, doi:10.5194/gmd-6-179-2013, 2013.
35. Lelieveld, J., Barlas, C., Giannadaki, D., Pozzer, A.: Model calculated global, regional and megacity premature mortality due to air pollution, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 7023-7037, doi:10.5194/acp-13-7023-2013, 2013.
36. Lelieveld, J., Evans, J. S., Fnais, M., Giannadaki, D., Pozzer, A.: The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale, Nature, 525, 367-371, doi:10.1038/nature15371, 2015.
37. Lepeule, J., Laden, F., Dockery, D., Schwartz, J.: Chronic exposure to fine particles and mortality: An extended follow-up of the Harvard six cities study from 1974 to 2009, Environ. Health Persp., 120, 965-970, doi:10.1289/ehp.1104660, 2012.
38. Levy, J. I., Chemerynski, S. M., Sarnat, J. A: Ozone exposure and mortality: an empiric bayes metaregression analysis, Epidemiology, 16, 458-468, doi:10.1097/01.ede.0000165820.08301.b3, 2005.
39. Li, Y., Henze, D., Jack, D., Kinney, P.: The influence of air quality model resolution on health impact assessment for fine particulate matter and its components, Air Qual. Atmos. Health, 9, 51-68, doi:10.1007/s11869-015-0321-z, 2016.
40. Likhvar, V. N., Pascal, M., Markakis, K., Colette, A., Hauglustaine, D., Valari, M., Klimont, Z., Medina, S., Kinney, P.: A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century, Sci. Total Environ., 514, 439-449, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.02.002, 2015.
41. Lozano, R., Naghavi, M. Foreman, K. et al.: Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, The Lancet, 380, 2095-2128, 2012.
42. Masui, T., Matsumoto, K., Hijioka, Y., Kinoshita, T., Nozawa, T., Ishiwatari, S., Kato, E., Shukla, P. R., Yamagata, Y., Kainuma, M.: An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm-2 radiative forcing, Climate Change, 109, 59-76, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0150-5, 2011.
43. Orru, H.,ersson, C., Ebi, K. L., Langner, J., Åström, C., Forsberg, B.: Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe, Eur. Respir. J., 41, 285-294, doi:10.1183/09031936.00210411, 2013.
44. Pattenden, S., Armstrong, B., Milojevic, A., Barratt, B., Chalabi, Z., Doherty, R. M., Heal, M. R., Kovats, S., Wilkinson, P.: Ozone, heat and mortality in fifteen British conurbations, Occup. Environ. Med., 67, 699-707, doi:10.1136/oem.2009.051714, 2010.
45. Post, E. S., Grambsch, A., Weaver, C., Morefield, P., Huang, J., Leung, L. Y., Nolte, C. G., Adams, P., Liang, X. Z., Zhu, J. H., Mahoney, H.: Variation in estimated ozone-related health impacts of climate change due to modeling choices and assumptions, Environ. Health Persp., 120, 1559-1564, doi:10.1289/ehp.1104271, 2012.
46. Punger, E. M., West, J. J.: The effect of grid resolution on estimates of the burden of ozone and fine particulate matter on premature mortality in the USA, Air Qual. Atmos. Health, 6, 563-573, doi:10.1007/s11869-013-0197-8, 2013.
47. Rao, S., Chirkov, V., Dentener, F., Dingenen, R., Pachauri, S., Purohit, P., Amann, M., Heyes, C., Kinney, P., Kolp, P., Klimont, Z., Riahi, K., Schoepp, W.: Environmental Modeling and Methods for Estimation of the Global Health Impacts of Air Pollution, Environ. Model. Assess., 7, 613-622, doi:10.1007/s10666-012-9317-3, 2012.
48. Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., Rafaj, P.: RCP 8.5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Climate Change, 109, 33-57, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y, 2011.
49. Selin, N. E., Wu, S., Nam, K. M., Reilly, J. M., Paltsev, S., Prinn, R. G., Webster, M. D.: Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution, Environ. Res. Lett., 4, 044014, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/044014, 2009.
50. Sheffield, P. E., Knowlton, K., Carr, J. L., Kinney, P. L.: Modeling of Regional Climate Change Effects on Ground-Level Ozone and Childhood Asthma, Am. J. Prev. Med., 41, 251-257, doi:10.1016/j.amepre.2011.04.017, 2011.
51. Shindell, D. T., Lamarque, J.-F., Schulz, M., Flanner, M., Jiao, C., Chin, M., Young, P. J., Lee, Y. H., Rotstayn, L., Mahowald, N., Milly, G., Faluvegi, G., Balkanski, Y., Collins, W. J., Conley, A. J., Dalsoren, S., Easter, R., Ghan, S., Horowitz, L., Liu, X., Myhre, G., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Rumbold, S. T., Skeie, R., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Takemura, T., Voulgarakis, A., Yoon, J.-H., Lo, F.: Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2939-2974, doi:10.5194/acp-13-2939-2013, 2013.
52. Silva, R. A., West, J. J., Zhang, Y., Anenberg, S. C., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Collins,W. J., Dalsoren, S., Faluvegi, G., Folberth, G., Horowitz, L. W., Nagashima, T., Naik, V., Rumbold, S., Skeie, R., Sudo, K., Takemura, T., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V., Josse, B., MacKenzie, I. A., Plummer, D., Righi, M., Stevenson, D. S., Strode, S., Szopa, S., Zeng, G.: Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 034005, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005, 2013.
53. Smith, S. J.,West, J. J., Kyle, P.: Economically consistent longterm scenarios for air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, Climatic Change, 108, 619-627, 2011.
54. Stevenson, D. S., Young, P. J., Naik, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Shindell, D. T., Voulgarakis, A., Skeie, R. B., Dalsoren, S. B., Myhre, G., Berntsen, T. K., Folberth, G. A., Rumbold, S. T., Collins, W. J., MacKenzie, I. A., Doherty, R. M., Zeng, G., van Noije, T. P. C., Strunk, A., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Plummer, D. A., Strode, S. A., Horowitz, L., Lee, Y. H., Szopa, S., Sudo, K., Nagashima, T., Josse, B., Cionni, I., Righi, M., Eyring, V., Conley, A., Bowman, K. W., Wild, O., Archibald, A.: Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3063-3085, doi:10.5194/acp-13-3063-2013, 2013.
55. Tagaris, E., Liao, K.-J., Delucia, A. J., Deck, L., Amar, P., Russell, A. G.: Potential impact of climate change on air pollutionrelated human health effects, Environ. Sci. Technol., 43, 4979-4988, doi:10.1021/es803650w, 2009.
56. Thomson, A. M., Calvin, K. V., Smith, S. J., Kyle, G. P., Volke, A., Patel, P., Delgado-Arias, S., Bond-Lamberty, B., Wise, M. A., Clarke, L. E., Edmonds, J. A.: RCP4.5: A pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100, Climatic Change, 109, 77-94, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4, 2011.
57. Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J. F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: An overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5-31, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011a.
58. Van Vuuren, D. P., Stehfest, E., den Elzen, M. G. J., Kram, T., van Vliet, J., Deetman, S., Isaac, M., Goldewijk, K. K., Hof, A., Beltran, A. M., Oostenrijk, R., van Ruijven, B.: RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2-C, Climatic Change, 109, 95-116, doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3, 2011b.
59. von Schneidemesser, E., Monks, P. S., Allan, J. D., Bruhwiler, L., Forster, P., Fowler, D., Lauer, A., Morgan, W. T., Paasonen, P., Righi, M., Sindelarova, K., Sutton, M. A.: Chemistry and the Linkages between Air Quality and Climate Change, Chem Rev, 1, 3856-3897, doi:10.1021/acs.chemrev.5b00089, 2015.
60. Weaver, C. P., Liang, X. Z., Zhu, J., Adams, P. J., Amar, P., Avise, J., Caughey, M., Chen, J., Cohen, R. C., Cooter, E., Dawson, J. P., Gilliam, R., Gilliland, A., Goldstein, A. H., Grambsch, A., Grano, D., Guenther, A., Gustafson, W. I., Harley, R. A., He, S., Hemming, B., Hogrefe, C., Huang, H. C., Hunt, S. W., Jacob, D. J., Kinney, P. L., Kunkel, K., Lamarque, J. F., Lamb, B., Larkin, N. K., Leung, L. R., Liao, K. J., Lin, J. T., Lynn, B. H., Manomaiphiboon, K., Mass, C., Mckenzie, D., Mickley, L. J., O'Neill, S. M., Nolte, C., Pandis, S. N., Racherla, P. N., Rosenzweig, C., Russell, A. G., Salathé, E., Steiner, A. L., Tagaris, E., Tao, Z., Tonse, S., Wiedinmyer, C., Williams, A., Winner, D. A., Woo, J. H., Wu, S., Wuebbles, D. J.: A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1843-1863, doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2568.1, 2009.
61. West, J. J., Szopa, S., Hauglustaine, D. A.: Human mortality effects of future concentrations of tropospheric ozone, C. R. Geosci., 339, 775-783, 2007.
62. West, J. J., Smith, S. J., Silva, R. A., Naik, V., Zhang, Y., Adelman, Z., Fry, M. M., Anenberg, S., Horowitz, L. W., Lamarque, J.-F.: Co-benefits of global greenhouse gas mitigation for future air quality and human health, Nat. Clim. Chang., 3, 885-889, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2009, 2013.
63. Wilson, A., Rappold, A. G., Neas, L. M., Reich, B. J.: Modeling the effect of temperature on ozone-related mortality, Ann. Appl. Stat., 8, 1728-1749, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS754, 2014.
64. Young, P. J., Archibald, A. T., Bowman, K. W., Lamarque, J.-F., Naik, V., Stevenson, D. S., Tilmes, S., Voulgarakis, A., Wild, O., Bergmann, D., Cameron-Smith, P., Cionni, I., Collins,W. J., Dalsøren, S. B., Doherty, R. M., Eyring, V., Faluvegi, G., Horowitz, L. W., Josse, B., Lee, Y. H., MacKenzie, I. A., Nagashima, T., Plummer, D. A., Righi, M., Rumbold, S. T., Skeie, R. B., Shindell, D. T., Strode, S. A., Sudo, K., Szopa, S., Zeng, G.: Preindustrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2063-2090, doi:10.5194/acp-13-2063-2013, 2013.