Projections of global health outcomes from 2005 to 2060 using the international futures integrated forecasting model;projections de résultats en matière de santé mondiale de 2005 à 2060 en utilisant le modèle prévisionnel intégré international futures

Bulletin of the World Health Organization

Volumn 89, Issue 7, 2011, Pages 478-486

  Hughes, Barry B ^a   Kuhn, Randall ^a   Peterson, Cecilia M ^a   Rothman, Dale S ^a   Solórzano, José R ^a   Mathers, Colin D ^b   Dickson, Janet R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF DENVER   (United States)

^b WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ECONOMIC GROWTH; FORECASTING METHOD; FUTURE PROSPECT; GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT; INTEGRATED APPROACH; MODEL; MORTALITY; PLANNING METHOD; POPULATION STRUCTURE; PUBLIC HEALTH; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT;

AGRICULTURE; ARTICLE; CHILDHOOD MORTALITY; CLIMATE; COMMUNICABLE DISEASE; ECONOMIC ASPECT; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; FORECASTING; HARVEST; HEALTH HAZARD; HUMAN; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MORTALITY; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; POPULATION GROWTH; RISK FACTOR; SOCIAL EVOLUTION;

ADULT; CAUSALITY; FORECASTING; HUMANS; INTERNATIONALITY; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, THEORETICAL; MORTALITY; RISK FACTORS; WORLD HEALTH;

EID: 79960054676     PISSN: 00429686     EISSN: 15640604     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2471/BLT.10.083766     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Hughes BB, Hillebrand EE. Exploring and shaping International Futures. Boulder: Paradigm Publishing; 2006.
2. The global burden of disease: 2004 update. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2008.
3. Mathers CD, Loncar D. Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030. PLoS Med 2006;3:e442. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030442 PMID:17132052
4. Omran AR. The epidemiologic transition. A theory of the Epidemiology of population change. 1971. Bull World Health Organ 2001;79:161-70. PMID:11246833
5. Prüss-Üstün A, Corvalán CF. Preventing disease through healthy environments: towards an estimate of the environmental burden of disease. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2006.
6. Sachs JD. Macroeconomics and health: investing in health for economic development: report. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2001.
7. Marmot M, Friel S, Bell R, Houweling TA, Taylor S; Commission on Social Determinants of Health. Closing the gap in a generation: health equity through action on the social determinants of health. Lancet 2008;372:1661-9. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61690-6 PMID:18994664
8. Hughes BB, Kuhn R, Peterson CM, Rothman DS, Solorzano JR, Dickson J. Improving global health: patterns in potential human progress. Vol. 3. Boulder: Paradigm Publishers; 2011.
9. Hughes BB, Kuhn R, Peterson CM, Rothman DS, Solorzano JR, Dickson J. Forecasting global Health in IFs: technical documentation. Denver: University of Denver; 2010.
10. Murray CJL, Lopez AD, editors. The global burden of disease: a comprehensive assessment of mortality and disability from diseases, injuries, and risk factors in 1990 and projected to 2020. Cambridge: Harvard University Press; 1996.
11. Preston SH, Heuveline P, Guillot M. Demography: measuring and modeling population processes. Malden: Blackwell; 2001.
12. Chesebro J. The database of Ifs update [Internet]. Denver: University of Denver; 2009. Available from: http://www.ifs.du.edu/assets/documents/theifsdatabase5_09.pdf [accessed 31 March 2011].
13. Fogel RW, Costa DL. A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs. Demography 1997;34:49-66. doi:10.2307/2061659 PMID:9074831
14. Sachs J, Malaney P. The economic and social burden of malaria. Nature 2002;415:680-5. doi:10.1038/415680a PMID:11832956
15. Soares RR. Mortality reductions, educational attainment, and fertility choice. Am Econ Rev 2005;95:580-601. doi:10.1257/0002828054201486
16. Soares RR. The effect of longevity on schooling and fertility: evidence from the Brazilian Demographic and Health Survey. J Popul Econ 2006;19:71-97. doi:10.1007/s00148-005-0018-y
17. Deaton A. Height, health, and development. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2007;104:13232-7. doi:10.1073/pnas.0611500104 PMID:17686991
18. Grantham-McGregor S, Cheung YB, Cueto S, Glewwe P, Richter L, Strupp B; International Child Development Steering Group. Developmental potential in the first 5 years for children in developing countries. Lancet 2007;369:60-70. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(07)60032-4 PMID:17208643
19. Weil DN. Accounting for the effect of health on economic growth. Q J Econ 2007;122:1265-306. doi:10.1162/qjec.122.3.1265
20. Bloom DE, Canning D, Graham B. Longevity and life-cycle savings. Scand J Econ 2003;105:319-38. doi:10.1111/1467-9442.t01-1-00001
21. Stover J, Johnson P, Zaba B, Zwahlen M, Dabis F, Ekpini RE. The Spectrum projection package: improvements in estimating mortality, ART needs, PMTCT impact and uncertainty bounds. Sex Transm Infect 2008;84(Suppl 1):i24-30. doi:10.1136/sti.2008.029868 PMID:18647862
22. Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Murray CJL, editors. Comparative quantification of health risks: global and regional burden of disease attributable to selected major risk factors. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2004.
23. Hughes BB. Verification, validation, and accreditation of IFs [Internet]. 2006; Available from: http://www.ifs.du.edu/assets/documents/ifsvalidationv1_0.pdf [accessed 31 March 2011].
24. Shkolnikov V, Cornia G, Leon D, Meslé F. Causes of the Russian mortality crisis: evidence and interpretations. World Dev 1998;26:1995-2011. doi:10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00102-8
25. Zaridze D, Maximovitch D, Lazarev A, Igitov V, Boroda A, Boreham J et al. Alcohol poisoning is a main determinant of recent mortality trends in Russia: evidence from a detailed analysis of mortality statistics and autopsies. Int J Epidemiol 2009;38:143-53. doi:10.1093/ije/dyn160 PMID:18775875
26. Kuhn R. Routes to low mortality in poor countries revisited. Popul Dev Rev 2010;36:655-92. doi:10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00353.xPMID:21174865
27. Fauci AS. Infectious diseases: considerations for the 21st century. Clin Infect Dis 2001;32:675-85. doi:10.1086/319235 PMID:11229834
28. Nelson GC, Rosegrant MW, Koo J, Robertson R, Sulser T, Zhu T, et al. Climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation. Washington: International Food Policy Research Institute; 2009.