Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate

Nature Climate Change

Volumn 2, Issue 11, 2012, Pages 775-779

  Deser, Clara ^a   Knutti, Reto ^b   Solomon, Susan ^c   Phillips, Adam S ^a  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b Land Climate Dynamics Group   (Switzerland)

^c MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT; ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECISION MAKING; POLICY MAKING; REGIONAL CLIMATE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 84865969055     PISSN: 1758678X     EISSN: 17586798     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1562     Document Type: Review

References (24)

1. IPCC Climate Change 2007: Te Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
2. Easterling, D. R. & Wehner, M. F. Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L08706 (2009).
3. Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. Te potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions. Bull. Am. Meterol. Soc. 90, 1085-1107 (2009).
4. Deser, C., Phillips, A., Bourdette, V. & Teng, H. Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability. Clim. Dynam. 38, 527-547 (2012).
5. Hawkins, E. Our evolving climate: communicating the efects of climate variability. Weather 66, 175-179 (2011).
6. Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. Te potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim. Dynam. 37, 407-418 (2011).
7. Santer, B. D. et al. Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: Te importance of timescale, J. Geophys. Res. 116, D22105 (2011).
8. Meehl, G., Arblaster, J. & Branstator, G. Mechanisms contributing to the warming hole and the consequent U.S. east-west diferential of heat extremes. J. Clim. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00655.1 (2012).
9. Zhang, R., Delworth, T. L. & Held, I. M. Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L02709 (2007).
10. Kerr, R. Vital details of global warming are eluding forecasters. Science 334, 173-174 (2011).
11. http://www.wcrp-climate.org/documents/WCRP-WorldModellingSummit- Jan2009.pdf
12. Branstator, G. & Teng, H. Two limits of initial-value decadal predictability in a CGCM. J. Clim. 23, 6292-6311 (2010).
13. Smith, D. M. et al. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317, 796-799 (2007). (Pubitemid 47257915)
14. Branstator, G. et al. Systematic estimates of initial value decadal predictability for six AOGCMs. J. Clim. 25, 1827-1846 (2012).
15. Mahlstein, I., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Portmann, R. W. Early onset of signifcant local warming in low latitude countries. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 034009 (2011).
16. Difenbaugh, N. S. & Scherer, M. Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries. Climatic Change 107, 615-624 (2011).
17. Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L01702 (2012).
18. Tsunyuki, M., Nakicenovic, N. & Robinson, J. Overview of mitigation scenarios for global climate stabilization based on new IPCC emission scenarios (SRES). Environ. Econ. Policy Stud. 3, 65-88 (2000).
19. Meehl, G. A. et al. Climate change projections for the twenty-frst century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Clim. 19, 2597-2616 (2006). (Pubitemid 43881298)
20. Willmott, C. J. & Robeson, S. M. Climatologically aided interpolation (CAI) of terrestrial air temperature. Int. J. Climatol. 15, 221-229 (1995).
21. Rudolf, B. & Schneider, U. in Proc. 2nd Workshop of the Int. Precipitation Working Group IPWG 231-247 (EUMETSAT, 2004).
22. Tebaldi, C., Arblaster, J. & Knutti, R. Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L23701 (2011).
23. Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R. & Pielke, R. Jr in Adapting to Climate Change: Tresholds, Values, Governance (eds Adger, W. N., Lorenzoni, I. & O'Brien, K.) 64-78 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2009).
24. Dessai, S., Hulme, M., Lempert, R. & Pielke, R. Jr Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changing climate? Eos 90, 111-112 (2009).