The response of ENSO flavors to mid-Holocene climate: Implications for proxy interpretation

Paleoceanography

Volumn 30, Issue 5, 2015, Pages 527-547

  Karamperidou, Christina ^a   Di Nezio, Pedro N ^a   Timmermann, Axel ^a   Jin, Fei Fei ^a   Cobb, Kim M ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII   (United States)

^b GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

central Pacific; eastern Pacific; El Ni o flavors; ENSO; mid Holocene

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE MODELING; CORAL; EL NINO; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; FOSSIL RECORD; HOLOCENE; PALEOCLIMATE; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TEMPERATURE ANOMALY; TRADE WIND;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (CENTRAL); PACIFIC OCEAN (EAST);

ANTHOZOA;

EID: 85027940501     PISSN: 08838305     EISSN: 19449186     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/2014PA002742     Document Type: Article

References (101)

1. Adler, R., G. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, P. Xie, J. Janowiak, B. Rudolf, U. Schneider, S. Curtis, D. Bolvin, A. Gruber, J. Susskind, and, P. Arkin, (2003), The version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis (1979-present), J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 1147-1167.
2. Ashok, K., S. Behera, S. Rao, H. Weng, and, T. Yamagata, (2007), El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi: 10.1029/2006JC003798.
3. Bellenger, H., E. Guilyardi, J. Leloup, M. Lengaigne, and, J. Vialard, (2014), ENSO representation in climate models: From CMIP3 to CMIP5, Clim. Dyn., 42 (7-8), 1999-2018.
4. Brown, J., M. Collins, and, A. Tudhope, (2006), Coupled model simulations of mid-Holocene ENSO and comparisons with coral oxygen isotope records, Adv. Geosci., 6, 29-33.
5. Brown, J., M. Collins, A. Tudhop, and, T. Toniazzo, (2008), Modelling mid-Holocene tropical climate and ENSO variability: Towards constraining predictions of future change with paleo-data, Clim. Dyn., 30, 19-36.
6. Bush, A., (2008), Assessing the impact of mid-Holocene insolation on the atmosphere-ocean system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26 (1), 99-102, doi: 10.1029/1998GL900261.
7. Cai, W., et al., (2014), Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 4 (1), 111-116.
8. Capotondi, A., (2013), ENSO diversity in the NCAR CCSM4 climate model, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118, 4755-4770, doi: 10.1002/jgrc.20335.
9. Carré, M., J. Sachs, S. Purca, A. Schauer, P. Braconnot, R.A. Falcõn, M. Julien, and, D. Lavallée, (2014), Holocene history of ENSO variance and asymmetry in the eastern tropical Pacific, Science, 345 (6200), 1045-1048, doi: 10.1126/science.1252220.
10. Chang, P., B. Wang, T. Li, and, L. Ji, (1994), Interactions between the seasonal cycle and the Southern Oscillation-Frequency entrainment and chaos in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 2817-2820.
11. Chazen, C., M. Altabet, and, T. Herbert, (2009), Abrupt mid-Holocene onset of centennial-scale climate variability on the Peru-Chile Margin, Geophys. Res. Lett, 36, L18704, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039749.
12. Chiang, J., Y. Fang, and, P. Chang, (2009), Pacific climate change and ENSO activity in the mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 22, 923-939, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2644.1.
13. Clement, A., R. Seager, and, M. Cane, (2000), Suppression of El Niño during the mid-Holocene by changes in the Earth's orbit, Paleoceanography, 15 (6), 731-737.
14. Clement, A., M. Cane, and, R. Seager, (2001), An orbitally driven tropical source for abrupt climate change, J. Clim., 14, 2369-2375.
15. Cobb, K., C. Charles, H. Cheng, and, R. Edwards, (2003), El Niño/Southern Oscillation and tropical Pacific climate during the last millennium, Nature, 424, 271-276.
16. Cobb, K., N. Westphal, H. Sayani, E.D. Lorenzo, C. Charles, H. Cheng, and, R. Edwards, (2013), Highly variable El Niño-Southern Oscillation throughout the Holocene, Science, 339 (6115), 67-70.
17. Collins, M., S.-I. An, W. Cai, A. Ganachaud, E. Guilyardi, F.-F. Jin, M. Jochum, M. Lengaigne, S. Power, A. Timmermann, G. Vecchi, and, A. Wittenberg, (2010), The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific Ocean and El Niño, Nat. Geo., 3, 391-397.
18. Conroy, J., J. Overpeck, J. Cole, T. Shanahan, and, M. Steinitz-Kannan, (2008), Holocene changes in eastern tropical Pacific climate inferred from a Galápagos lake sediment record, Quat. Sci. Rev., 27 (11-12), 1166-1180.
19. Delcroix, T., G. Alory, S. Cravatte, T. Corrége, and, M. McPhaden, (2011), A gridded sea surface salinity data set for the tropical Pacific with sample applications (1950-2008), Deep Sea Res., 58, 38-48, doi: 10.1016/j.dsr.2010.11.002.
20. Deser, C., A.S. Phillips, R.A. Tomas, Y.M. Okumura, M.A. Alexander, A. Capotondi, J.D. Scott, Y.-O. Kwon, and, M. Ohba, (2012), ENSO and Pacific decadal variability in the community climate system model version 4, J. Clim., 25, 2622-2651.
21. di Lorenzo, E., K. Cobb, J. Furtado, N. Schneider, B. Anderson, A. Bracco, M. Alexander, and, D. Vimont, (2010), Central Pacific El Niño and decadal climate change in the North Pacific Ocean, Nat. Geo., 3 (11), 762-765.
22. DiNezio, P., and, C. Deser, (2014), Nonlinear controls on the persistence of La Niña, J. Clim., 27, 7335-7355.
23. DiNezio, P., A. Clement, G. Vecchi, B. Soden, B. Kirtman, and, S.-K. Lee, (2009), Climate response of the equatorial Pacific to global warming, J. Clim., 22, 4873-4892.
24. DiNezio, P., B.J. Kirtman, A. Clement, S.-K. Lee, G. Vecchi, and, A. Wittenberg, (2012), Mean climate controls on the simulated response of ENSO to increasing greenhouse gases, J. Clim., 25, 7399-7420.
25. Donders, T., F. Wagner, D. Dilcher, and, H. Visscher, (2005), Mid- to late-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation dynamics reected in the subtropical terrestrial realm, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 102 (31), 10,904-10,908.
26. Donders, T., S. Haberle, G. Hope, F. Wagner, and, H. Visscher, (2007), Pollen evidence for the transition of the eastern Australian climate system from the post-glacial to the present-day ENSO mode, Quat. Sci. Rev., 26, 1621-1637.
27. Donders, T., F. Wagner-Cremer, and, H. Visscher, (2008), Integration of proxy data and model scenarios for the mid-Holocene onset of modern ENSO variability, Quat. Sci. Rev., 27, 571-579.
28. Gagan, M., S.H.E.J. Hendy, and, W. Hantoro, (2004), Postglacial evolution of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Quat. Int., 118-119, 127-143.
29. Gent, P., et al., (2011), The community climate system model version 4, J. Clim., 24, 4973-4991.
30. Harrison, D., and, G. Vecchi, (1999), On the termination of El Niño, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26 (11), 1593-1596.
31. Harrison, D., and, G. Vecchi, (2003), On the termination of the 2002-3 El Niño event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 (18), 1964-1967.
32. Harrison, D., and, G. Vecchi, (2006), The termination of the 1997-98 El Niño: Part II. Mechanisms of Atmospheric Change, J. Clim., 19, 2647-2664.
33. Hewitt, C., and, J. Mitchell, (1998), A fully coupled GCM simulation of the climate of the mid-Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25 (3), 361-364, doi: 10.1029/97GL03721.
34. Hoerling, M., and, A. Kumar, (2002), Atmospheric response patterns associated with tropical forcing, J. Clim., 15, 2184-2203.
35. Hu, Z.-Z., A. Kumar, B. Jha, W. Wang, B. Huang, and, B. Huang, (2012), An analysis of warm pool and cold tongue El Niños: Air-sea coupling processes, global influences, and recent trends, Clim. Dyn., 38, 2017-2035, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1224-9.
36. Jin, F.-F., J. Neelin, and, M. Ghil, (1994), El Niño on the devil's staircase: Annual and subharmonic steps to chaos, Science, 264, 70-72.
37. Jin, F.-F., J. Neelin, and, M. Ghil, (1996), El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: Subharmonic frequency-locking and aperiodicity, Physica D, 98, 442-465.
38. Kao, H.-Y., and, J.-Y. Yu, (2009), Contrasting eastern-Pacific and central-Pacific types of ENSO, J. Clim., 22 (3), 615-632.
39. Kim, H.-M., P. Webster, and, J. Curry, (2009), Impact of shifting patterns of pacific ocean warming on north Atlantic tropical cyclones, Science, 325, 77-79.
40. Kitoh, A., and, S. Murakami, (2002), Tropical Pacific climate at the mid-Holocene and the Last Glacial Maximum simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, Paleoceanography, 17 (3), 1047, doi: 10.1029/2001PA000724.
41. Koutavas, A., and, S. Joanides, (2012), El Niño-Southern Oscillation extrema in the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Paleoceanography, 27, PA4208, doi: 10.1029/2012PA002378.
42. Koutavas, A., J. Lynch-Stieglitz, T. Marchitto, and, J. Sachs, (2002), El Niño-like pattern in ice age tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, Science, 297 (5579), 226-230.
43. Koutavas, A., P. deMenocal, G. Olive, and, J. Lynch-Stieglitz, (2006), Mid-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) attenuation revealed by individual foraminifera in eastern tropical Pacific sediments, Geology, 34, 993-996.
44. Kug, J.-S., F.-F. Jin, and, S.-I. An, (2009), Two types of El Niño events: Cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño, J. Clim., 22 (6), 1499-1515.
45. Larkin, N., and, D. Harrison, (2005), On the definition of El Niño and associated seasonal average U.S. weather anomalies, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L13705, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022738.
46. Lee, T., and, M. McPhaden, (2010), Increasing intensity of El Niño in the central-equatorial Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14603, doi: 10.1029/2010GL044007.
47. Lengaigne, M., J.-P. Boulanger, C. Menkes, and, H. Spencer, (2006), Influence of the seasonal cycle on the termination of El Niño events in a coupled general circulation model, J. Clim., 19, 1850-1868.
48. L'Heureux, M., D. Collins, and, Z.-Z. Hu, (2012), Linear trends in sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean and implications for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Clim. Dyn., 40, 1223-1236, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1331-2.
49. Lin, J.-L., (2007), The double-ITCZ problem in IPCC AR4 coupled GCMs: Ocean-atmosphere feedback analysis, J. Clim., 20, 4497-4525, doi: 10.1175/JCLI4272.1.
50. Liu, Y., L. Xie, J. Morrison, and, D. Kamykowski, (2013), Dynamic downscaling of the impact of climate change on the ocean circulation in the Galápagos Archipelago, Adv. Meteorol., 2013, 1-18.
51. Liu, Z., (2002), A simple model study of ENSO suppression by external periodic forcing, J. Clim., 15, 1088-1098.
52. Liu, Z., J. Kutzbach, and, L. Wu, (2000), Modeling climate shift of El Niño variability in the Holocene, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2265-2268.
53. Mantsis, D., A. Clement, B. Kirtman, A. Broccoli, and, M. Erb, (2013a), Precessional cycles and their influence on the North Pacific and North Atlantic summer anticyclones, J. Clim., 26, 4596-4611.
54. Mantsis, D., B. Lintner, A. Broccoli, and, M. Khondri, (2013b), Mechanisms of mid-Holocene precipitation changes in the south Pacific convergence zone, J. Clim., 26, 6937-6953.
55. Marzin, C., and, P. Braconnot, (2009), Variations of Indian and African monsoons induced by insolation changes at 6 and 9.5 kyr BP, Clim. Dyn., 33 (2-3), 215-231.
56. Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., (2013), Information from paleoclimate archives, in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes, edited by, T. Stocker, et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York.
57. 18O records of anomalous Holocene variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L11204, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019972.
58. McGregor, H., M. Fischer, M. Gagan, D. Fink, S. Phipps, H. Wong, and, C. Woodroffe, (2013a), A weak El Niño/Southern Oscillation with delayed seasonal growth around 4300 years ago, Nat. Geosci., 6, 949-953.
59. McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, N. Schneider, M. Stuecker, and, M.H. England, (2012), The effect of the south Pacific convergence zone on the termination of El Niño events and the meridional asymmetry of ENSO, J. Clim., 25, 5566-5586.
60. McGregor, S., N. Ramesh, P. Spence, M.H. England, M.J. McPhaden, and, A. Santoso, (2013b), Meridional movement of wind anomalies during ENSO events and their role in event termination, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 749-754, doi: 10.1002/grl.50136.
61. McPhaden, M., T. Lee, and, D. McClurg, (2011), El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett, 38, L15709, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048275.
62. Meehl, G., M.J.T. Lee, and, D. McClurg, (2007), El Niño and its relationship to changing background conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L15709, doi: 10.1029/2011GL048275.
63. Mo, K., (2010), Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on precipitation and temperature over the United States, J. Clim., 23, 3639-56.
64. Monahan, A., and, A. Dai, (2004), The spatial and temporal structure of ENSO nonlinearity, J. Clim., 17, 3026-3036.
65. Moy, C., G. Seltzer, D. Rodbell, and, D. Anderson, (2002), Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420, 162-165, doi: 10.1038/nature01194.
66. Newman, M., S.-I. Shin, and, M.A. Alexander, (2011a), Natural variation in ENSO flavors, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14705, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047658.
67. Newman, M., M. Alexander, and, J.D. Scott, (2011b), An empirical model of tropical ocean dynamics, Clim. Dyn., 37, 1823-1841, doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1034-0.
68. Nurhati, I., K. Cobb, and, E.D. Lorenzo, (2011), Decadal-Scale SST and Salinity Variations in the Central Tropical Pacific: Signatures of natural and anthropogenic climate change, J. Clim., 24, 3294-3308.
69. Otto-Bliesner, B., S.S.E. Brad, Z. Liu, and, C. Shield, (2003), Modeling El Niño and its tropical teleconnections during the Last Glacial-Interglacial cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 (23), 2198, doi: 10.1029/2003GL018553.
70. Pan, A., Q. Liu, and, Z.Y. Liu, (2005), Periodic forcing and ENSO suppression in the Cane-Zebiak model, J. Oceanogr., 61, 109-113.
71. Rayner, N., D. Parker, E. Horton, C. Folland, L. Alexander, D. Rowell, E. Kent, and, A. Kaplan, (2003), Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century, J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D14), 4407, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002670.
72. Ren, H.-L., and, F.-F. Jin, (2011), Niño indices for two types of ENSO, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L04704, doi: 10.1029/2010GL046031.
73. Riedinger, M., M. Steinitz-Kannan, W. Last, and, M. Brenner, (2002), A 6100 14C yr record of El Niño activity from the Galapagos Islands, J. Paleolimnol., 27, 1-7.
74. Rodbell, D., G. Seltzer, D. Anderson, M. Abbott, D. Enfield, and, J. Newman, (1999), An 1~5,000-year record of El Niño-driven alluviation in southwestern Ecuador, Science, 283, 516-520, doi: 10.1126/science.283.5401.516.
75. Salau, O., B. Schneider, W. Park, V. Khon, and, M. Latif, (2012), Modeling the ENSO impact of orbitally induced mean state climate changes, J. Geophys. Res., 117, C05043, doi: 10.1029/2011JC007742.
76. Sandweiss, D. J. R., III, E. Reitz, H. Rollins, and, K. Maasch, (1996), Geoarchaeological evidence from Peru for a 5000 years BP onset of El Niño, Science, 273, 1531-1533.
77. Sandweiss, D., K. Maasch, R. Burger, J. Richardson, H. Rollins, and, A. Clement, (2001), Variation in Holocene El Niño frequencies: Climate records and cultural consequences in ancient Peru, Geology, 29 (7), 603-606.
78. Stein, K., A. Timmermann, and, N. Schneider, (2011), Phase synchronization of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation with the annual cycle, Phys. Rev. Lett., 107 (12), 128501.
79. Stein, K., A. Timmermann, N. Schneider, F.-F. Jin, and, M. Stuecker, (2014), ENSO seasonal synchronization theory, J. Clim., 27 (14), 5285-5310.
80. Stuecker, M., A. Timmermann, F.-F. Jin, S. McGregor, and, H.-L. Ren, (2013), A combination mode of annual cycle and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Nat. Geosci., 6, 540-544.
81. Takahashi, K., A. Montecinos, K. Goubanova, and, B. Dewitte, (2011), ENSO regimes: Reinterpreting the canonical and Modoki El Niño, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L10704, doi: 10.1029/2011GL047364.
82. Timmermann, A., (1999), Detecting the nonstationary response of ENSO to Greenhouse Warming, J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2313-2325.
83. Timmermann, A., S. Lorenz, S. An, A. Clement, and, S.-P. Xie, (2007), The effect of orbital forcing on the mean climate and variability of the tropical Pacific, J. Clim., 20, 4147-4159.
84. Trenberth, K., and, D. Stepaniak, (2001), Indices of El Niño evolution, J. Clim., 14, 1697-1701.
85. Trueman, M., and, N. d'Ozouville, (2010), Characterizing the Galapagos terrestrial climate in the face of global climate change, Galapagos Res., 67, 26-36.
86. Tudhope, A., C. Chilcott, M. McCulloch, E. Cook, J. Chappell, R. Ellam, D. Lea, J. Lough, and, G.B. Shimmield, (2001), Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle, Science, 291, 1511-1517, doi: 10.1126/science.1057969.
87. Tziperman, E., L. Stone, M. Cane, and, H. Jarosh, (1994), El-Niño chaos: Overlapping of resonances between the seasonal cycle and the Pacific ocean-atmosphere oscillator, Science, 264 (5155), 72-74.
88. Tziperman, E., M. Cane, and, S. Zebiak, (1995), Irregularity and locking to the seasonal cycle in an ENSO prediction model as explained by the quasi-periodicity route to chaos, J. Atmos. Sci., 52 (3), 293-306.
89. Wang, B., and, Z. Fang, (1996), Chaotic Oscillation of the tropical climate: A dynamic system theory for ENSO, J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2786-2802.
90. Wang, G., and, H. Hendon, (2007), Sensitivity of Australian rainfall to inter-El Niño variations, J. Clim., 20, 4211-4226.
91. Weng, H., K. Ashok, S. Behera, S. Rao, and, T. Yamagata, (2007), Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during Boreal Summer, Clim. Dyn., 29, 113-129, doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0234-0.
92. Wittenberg, A., (2009), Are historical records sufficient to constrain ENSO simulations?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L12702, doi: 10.1029/2009GL038710.
93. Wolff, C., G. Haug, A. Timmermann, J.S. Damsté, A. Brauer, D. Sigman, M. Cane, and, D. Verschuren, (2011), Reduced interannual rainfall variability in east Africa during the Last Ice Age, Science, 333, 743-747.
94. Wolff, M., (2010), Galapagos does not show recent warming but increased seasonality, Galapagos Res., 67, 38-44.
95. Woodroffe, C., M. Beech, and, M. Gagan, (2003), Mid-late Holocene El Niño variability in the equatorial Pacific from coral microatolls, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 (7), 1358, doi: 10.1029/2002GL015868.
96. Xu, J., and, J. Chan, (2001), The role of the Asian-Australian monsoon system in the onset time of El Niño events, J. Clim., 14, 418-433.
97. Yeh, S.-W., J.-S. Kug, B. Dewitte, M.-H. Kwon, B. Kirtman, and, F.-F. Jin, (2009), El Niño in a changing climate, Nature, 461, 511-515.
98. Yeh, S.-W., B.P. Kirtman, J. Kug, W. Park, and, M. Latif, (2011), Natural variability of the central Pacific El Niño event on multi-centennial timescales, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02704, doi: 10.1029/2010GL045886.
99. Yu, J.-Y., and, S.T. Kim, (2010), Three evolution patterns of Central-Pacific El Niño, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L08706, doi: 10.1029/2010GL042810.
100. Yu, J.-Y., F. Sun, and, H.-Y. Kao, (2009), Contributions of Indian Ocean and monsoon biases to the excessive biennial ENSO in CCSM3, J. Clim., 22, 1850-1858.
101. Yu, J.-Y., H.-Y. Kao, and, T. Lee, (2010), Subtropics-related interannual sea surface temperature variability in the Central Equatorial Pacific, J. Clim., 23 (11), 2869-2884.