Best practice in conducting actuarial risk assessments with adult sexual offenders

Journal of Sexual Aggression

Volumn 15, Issue 2, 2009, Pages 193-211

  Craig, Leam A ^a,b   Beech, Anthony ^b  

^a FORENSIC PSYCHOLOGY PRACTICE LTD   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Actuarial risk scales; Best practice; Risk assessment; Sexual offenders

Indexed keywords

EID: 85006404250     PISSN: 13552600     EISSN: 17426545     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13552600902867847     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. Allan, A., Dawson, D., and Allan, M. M., 2006. Prediction of the risk of male sexual reoffending in Australia. Australian Psychologist, 41:60–68.
2. Amenta, A. E., Guy, L., and Edens, J. F., 2003. Sex offender risk assessment:A cautionary note regarding measures attempting to quantify violence risk. Journal of Forensic Psychology Practice, 3:39–50.
3. Bagley, C., and Pritchard, C., 2000. Criminality and violence in intra- and extra-familial child abusers in a 2-year cohort of convicted perpetrators. Child Abuse Review, 9:264–274.
4. Baltieri, D. A., and de Andrade, A. G., 2008. Comparing serial and nonserial sexual offenders:Alcohol and street drug consumption, impulsiveness and history of sexual abuse. Revista Brasileira de Psiquiatria, 30:25–31.
5. Barbaree, H. E., 1997. Evaluating treatment efficacy with sexual offenders:The insensitivity of recidivism studies to treatment effects. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 9:111–128.
6. Barbaree, H. E., Blanchard, R., and Langton, C. M., 2003. “ The development of sexual aggression through the lifespan:The effect of age on sexual arousal and recidivism among sex offenders ”. In Understanding and Managing Sexually Coercive Behavior, Edited by:Prentky, R. A., Janus, E. S., and Seto, M. C., Vol. 989, 59–71. New York:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.
7. Beech, A. R., 1998. A psychometric typology of child abusers. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 42:319–339.
8. Beech, A. R., Fisher, D. D., and Thornton, D., 2003. Risk assessment of sex offenders. Professional Psychology:Research and Practice, 34:339–352.
9. Bengtson, S., 2008. Is newer better? A cross-validation of the Static-2002 and the Risk Matrix 2000 in a Danish sample of sexual offenders. Psychology, Crime and Law, 14:85–106.
10. Borum, R., 1996. Improving the clinical practice of violence risk assessment:Technology, guidelines and training. American Psychologist, 51:945–956.
11. Cohen, J., 1988. Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, 2nd edn, Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum.
12. Corbett, C., Patel, V., Erickson, M., and Friendship, C., 2003. The violent reconvictions of sexual offenders. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 9:31–39.
13. Cortoni, F., 2009. “ Violence and women offenders ”. In Women and the Criminal Justice System:A Canadian Perspective, Edited by:Barker, J., 175–199. Toronto:Emond Montgomery.
14. Cortoni, F., Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A., in press. Sexual offenders. In K. D., Browne, A. R., Beech & L. A., Craig Assessments in Forensic Practice:A Handbook. Wiley & Son.
15. Covington, J. R., 1997. Preventive detention for sex offenders. Illinois Bar Journal, 85:493–498.
16. Craig, L. A., 2008. How should we understand the effect of age on sexual reconviction?. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 14:185–198.
17. Craig, L. A., Beech, A. R., and Browne, K. D., 2006. Cross validation of the Risk Matrix 2000 Sexual and Violent scales. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21:621–633.
18. Craig, L. A., Browne, K. D., and Beech, A. R., 2008. Assessing Risk in Sex Offenders:A Practitioner's Guide, Chichester:John Wiley & Son.
19. Craig, L. A., Browne, K. D., Hogue, T. E., and &. Stringer, I., 2004. “ New directions in assessing risk for sex offenders ”. In Risk Assessment and Management:Issues in Forensic Psychology, Edited by:Macpherson, G., and Jones, L., Vol. 5, 81–99. Leicester:The British Psychological Society.
20. Craig, L. A., Browne, K. D., and Stringer, I., 2003. Risk scales and factors predictive of sexual offence recidivism. Trauma, Violence & Abuse, 4:45–68.
21. Craig, L. A., Browne, K. D., Stringer, I., and Beech, A., 2004. Limitations in actuarial risk assessment of sexual offenders:A methodological note. British Journal of Forensic Practice, 1:16–32.
22. Craig, L. A., Browne, K. D., Stringer, I., and Hogue, T. E., 2008. Sexual reconviction rates in the United Kingdom and actuarial estimates. Child Abuse & Neglect:The International Journal, 32:121–138.
23. Craig, L. A., and Hutchinson, R., 2005. Sexual offenders with learning disabilities:Risk, recidivism and treatment. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 11:289–304.
24. Criminal Justice Act 1991 (issued August 2004). Office of Public Sector Information. Home Office. Available at:http://www.opsi.gov.uk/ACTS/acts1991/ukpga_19910053_en_4 (accessed 26 January 2008).
25. Dingwall, R., 1989. “ Some problems about predicting child abuse and neglect ”. In Child Abuse:Public Policy and Professional Practice, Edited by:Stevenson, O., 28–53. Hemel Hempstead:Harvester Wheatsheaf.
26. Donaldson, T., and Wollert, R., 2008. A mathematical proof and example that Bayes's Theorem is fundamental to actuarial estimates of sexual recidivism risk. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 20:207–217.
27. Doren, D. M., 1998. Recidivism base rates, predictions of sex offender recidivism, and the “sexual predator” commitment laws. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 16:97–114.
28. Doren, D. M., 2002. Evaluating Sex Offenders:A Manual for Civil Commitments and Beyond, Thousand Oaks, CA:Sage Publications Inc.
29. Doren, D. M., 2004. Toward a multidimensional model of sexual recidivism risk. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 19:835–856.
30. Doren, D. M., and Epperson, D. L., 2001. Great analysis, but problematic assumptions:A critique of Janus and Meehl (1997). Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 13:45–51.
31. Ducro, C., and Pham, T., 2006. Evaluation of the SORAG and the Static-99 in Belgian sex offenders committed to a forensic facility. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18:15–26.
32. Epperson, D. L., Kaul, J. D., & Hesselton, D., 1998. Final Report on the Development of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R). Paper presented at the 17th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Vancouver, Canada, 14–17 October 1998.
33. Eldridge, H., and Saradjian, J., 2000. “ Replacing the function of abusive behaviors for the offender:Remaking relapse prevention in working with women who sexually abuse children ”. In Remaking Relapse Prevention With Sex Offenders:A Sourcebook, Edited by:Laws, D. R., Hudson, S. M., and Ward, T., 402–426. Thousand Oaks, CA:Sage Publications.
34. Erickson, M., and Friendship, C., 2002. A typology of child abduction events. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 7:115–120.
35. Falshaw, L., Bastes, A., Patel, V., Corbett, C., and Friendship, C., 2003. Assessing reconviction, reoffending and recidivism in a sample of UK sexual offenders. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 8:207–215.
36. Fazel, S., Sjöstedt, G., Långström, N., and Grann, M., 2006. Risk factors fro criminal recidivism in older sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18:159–167.
37. Field, A., 2000. Discovering Statistics Using SPSS for Windows, London:Sage Publications.
38. Finkelhor, D., and Jones, L., 2006. Why have child maltreatment and child victimization declined?. Journal of Social Issues, 62:685–716.
39. Ford, H., and Cortoni, F., 2008. “ Sexual deviance in females:Assessment and treatment ”. In Sexual Deviance, 2nd edn, Edited by:Laws, D. R., and O'Donohue, W., 508–526. New York:Guilford Press.
40. Freeman, N. J., and Sandler, J., 2008. Female and male sex offenders:A comparison of recidivism patterns and risk factors. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 23:1394–1413.
41. Grayston, A. D., and De Luca, R. V., 1999. Female perpetrators of child sexual abuse:A review of the clinical and empirical literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 4:93–106.
42. Green, G., Gray, N. S., and Willner, P., 2002. Factors associated with criminal convictions for sexually inappropriate behavior in men with learning disabilities. Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 13:578–607.
43. Grove, W. M., and Meehl, P. E., 1996. Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures:The clinical–statistical controversy. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 2:293–323.
44. Haag, A. M., 2005. Do psychological interventions impact on actuarial measures:An analysis of the predictive validity of the Static-99 and the Static-2002 on a reconviction measure of sexual recidivism. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Calgary, Alberta.
45. Hannah-Moffat, K., and Shaw, M., 2001. Taking Risks:Incorporating Gender and Culture Into the Classification and Assessment of Federally Sentenced Women in Canada, Ottawa:Status of Women Canada.
46. Hanson, R. K., 1997. The Development of a Brief Actuarial Risk Scale for Sexual Offence Recidivism (User Report no. 1997–04). Ottawa:Department of the Solicitor General of Canada. Available at:http://www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e199704/e199704.htm (accessed January 2009)
47. Hanson, R. K., 2005. Twenty years of progress in violence risk assessment. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2:212–217.
48. Hanson, R. K., 2006. Does Static-99 predict recidivism among older sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18:343–356.
49. Hanson, R. K., Harris, A. J. R, Scott, T.-L., & Helmus, L., 2007. Assessing the risk of sexual offenders on community supervision:The Dynamic Supervision Project (User Report 2007–05). Ottawa, ON:Public Safety Canada. Available at:http://www.publicsafety.gc.ca/res/cor/rep/_fl/crp2007-05-en.pdf (accessed 22 January 2008).
50. Hanson, R. K., Lloyd, C. D., Helmus, L., & Thornton, D., 2008. Using Multiple Samples to Estimate Percentile Ranks and Relative Risk Ratios for Actuarial Risk Tools:A Canadian Example Using Static-99 and Static-2002. Unpublished manuscript. Available from the authors at Corrections Research, Public Safety Canada, Ottawa, ON.
51. Hanson, R. K., Morton, K. E., and Harris, A. J. R., 2003. Sexual offender recidivism risk:What we know and what we need to know. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 989:154–166.
52. Hanson, R. K., and Thornton, D., 2000. Improving risk assessment for sex offenders:A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24 (1):119–136.
53. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D., 2003. Notes on the Development of a Static-2002. Available at:http://ww2.psepc-sppcc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/200103_Static_2002_e.asp (accessed January 2009).
54. Harkins, L., and Beech, A. R., 2007. Measurement of the effectiveness of sex offender treatment. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 12 (1):36–44.
55. Harris, G., 2003. Men in his category have a 50% likelihood, but which half is he in?. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 15:389–392.
56. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., and Cormier, C. A., 2002. Prospective replication of the violent risk appraisal guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients. Law and Human Behavior, 26:377–394.
57. Harris, G. T., and Rice, M. E., 2003. “ Actuarial assessment of risk among sex offenders ”. In Sexually Coercive Behavior:Understanding and Management, Edited by:Prentky, R. A., Janus, E. S., and Seto, M. C., Vol. 989, 198–210. New York:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.
58. Harris, G. T., and Rice, M. E., 2007. Adjusting actuarial violence risk assessments based on aging or the passage of time. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34:267–313.
59. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L., 2007. Abandoning evidence-based risk appraisal in forensic practice:Comments on Hart et al British Journal of Psychiatry, 15 August, 2007. Electronic letters sent to the journal available from http://bjp.rcpsych.org/cgi/eletters/190/49/s60#6574
60. Harris, A. J., and Tough, S., 2004. Should actuarial risk assessments be used with sex offenders who are intellectually disabled. Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities, 17:235–241.
61. Hart, S. D., Michie, C., and Cooke, D. J., 2007a. Precision of actuarial risk assessment instruments:Evaluating the ‘margins of error’ of group v. individual predictions of violence. British Journal of Psychiatry, 190 (Suppl. 49):60–65.
62. Hart, S. D., Michie, C., and Cooke, D. J., 2007b. Authors’ reply. British Journal of Psychiatry, 191:561–562.
63. Hart, S. D., Webster, C. D., and Menzies, R. L., 1993. A note on portraying the accuracy of violence predictions. Law and Human Behavior, 17:695–700.
64. Helmus, L., Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D., 2009. Reporting Static-99 in light of new research on recidivism norms. ATSA Forum, XX1, 1.
65. Janus, E. A., and Meehl, P. E., 1997. Assessing the legal standard for predictions of dangerousness in sex offender commitment proceedings. Psychology. Public Policy and Law, 3:33–64.
66. Jones, L., 2003. “ Offense paralleling behaviour (OPB) as a framework for assessment and interventions with offenders ”. In Applying Psychology to Forensic Practice, Edited by:Needs, A., and Towl, G., 34–63. Oxford, Blackwell Publishers Ltd.
67. Kingston, D. A., Yates, P. M., Firestone, P., Babchishin, K., and Bradford, J., 2008. Long term predictive validity of the Risk Matrix 2000:A comparison with the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 20:466–484.
68. Krueger, J., 2007. Research bulletin:Sex offender populations, recidivism and actuarial assessment. New York State:Division of Probation and Correctional Alternatives. Available at:http://dpca.state.ny.us/pdfs/somgmtbulletinmay2007.pdf (accessed 26 January 2008).
69. Langton, C. M., Barbaree, H. E., Harkins, L., and Peacock, E. J., 2006. Sex offenders response to treatment and its association with recidivism as a function of psychopathy. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 18:99–120.
70. Langton, C. M., Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M., Hansen, K. T., Harkins, L., and Peacock, E. J., 2007. Reliability and validity of the Static-2002 among adult sex offenders with reference to treatment status. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34:616–640.
71. Lees, S., 1996. Carnal Knowledge:Rape on Trial, London:Hamish Hamilton.
72. Lindsay, W. R., Elliot, S. F., and Astell, A., 2004. Predictors of sexual offence recidivism in offenders with intellectual disabilities. Journal of Applied Research in Intellectual Disabilities, 17:299–305.
73. Lindsay, W. R., Hogue, T. E., Taylor, J. L., Steptoe, L., Mooney, P., O'Brien, G., 2008. Risk assessment in offenders with intellectual disability:A comparison across three levels of security. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 52:90–111.
74. Lindsay, W. R., and Taylor, J. L., 2009. “ The assessment of treatment related issues and risk in sexual offenders and abusers with ID ”. In Assessment and Treatment of Sexual Offenders:A Handbook, Edited by:Beech, A. R., Craig, L. A., and Browne, K. D., 217–236. Chichester:Wiley-Blackwell.
75. Miller, H. A., Amenta, A., and Conroy, M., 2005. Sexually violent predator evaluations:Empirical evidence, strategies for professionals, and research directions. Law and Human Behavior, 29:29–54.
76. Nathan, P., and Ward, T., 2002. Female sex offenders:Clinical and demographic features. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 8:5–21.
77. National Parole Board (NPB) 2004. Evaluation report for The National Parole Board's Effective Corrections and Citizen Engagement Initiatives 2000–2003. Available at:http://www.npbcnlc.gc.ca/rprts/pdf/ecce_2000_2003/ecce_2000_2003_e.pdf (accessed 30 October 2008).
78. Packard, R., 2002. Age & Sexual Recidivism. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Washington Chapter of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, Blaine, WA, 22 February.
79. Parole Board for England and Wales August 2004. Directions to the Parole Board under life sentence prisoners. Available at:http://www.paroleboard.gov.uk/policy_and_guidance/secretary_of_states_directions/directions_august_2004/(accessed 30 October 2008) [Also available from The Parole Board for England and Wales, Grenadier House, 99–105 Horseferry Road, London, SW1P 2DX.]
80. Phenix, A., Doren, D., Helmus, L., Hanson, R. K, & Thornton, D., 2008. Coding rules for Static-2002. Available at:http://www.static99.org/pdfdocs/static2002codingrules.pdf (accessed 22 January 2008).
81. Prentky, R. A., and Lee, A. F. S., 2007. Effect of age-at-release on long term sexual re-offence rates in civilly committed sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 119:43–59.
82. Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., and Cormier, C. A., 2006. Violent Offenders:Appraising and Managing Risk, 2nd edn, Washington, DC:American Psychological Association.
83. Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., Lang, C., and Cormier, C., 2006. Violent sex offenses:How are they best measured from official records. Law and Human Behavior, 30:525–541.
84. Skelton, A., Riley, D., Wales, D., and Vess, J., 2006. Assessing risk for sexual offenders in New Zealand:Development and validation of a computer-scored risk measure. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 12:277–286.
85. Skelton, A., and Vess, J., 2008. Risk of sexual recidivism as a function of age and actuarial risk. Journal of Sexual Aggression, 14:199–209.
86. Slovic, P., Monahan, J., and MacGregor, D. G., 2000. Violence risk assessment and risk communication:The effects of using actual cases, providing instruction, and employing probability versus frequency formats. Law and Human Behavior, 24:271–296.
87. Stadtland, C., Hollweg, M., Kleindienst, N., Dietl, J., Reich, U., and Nedopil, N., 2006. Evaluation of risk assessment instruments for sex offenders. Nervenarzt, 77:587–595.
88. Swets, J. A., Dawes, R. M., and Monahan, J., 2000. Better decisions through science. Scientific America, 155:70–76.
89. Terry, K. J., 2008. Stained glass:The nature and scope of child sexual abuse in the Catholic church. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 35:549–569.
90. Thornton, D., 2002. Constructing and testing a framework for dynamic risk assessment. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14:139–153.
91. Thornton, D., Mann, R., Webster, S., Blud, L., Travers, R, Friendship, C., 2003. “ Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism ”. In Understanding and Managing Sexually Coercive Behavior, Edited by:Prentky, R., Janus, E., and Seto, M., Vol. 989, 225–235. New York:Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences.
92. Webster, S. D., Mann, R. E., Carter, A. J., Long, J., Milner, R. J., O'Brein, M. D., Wakeling, H. C., and Ray, N. L., 2006. Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders. Psychology. Crime and Law, 12:439–452.
93. Wechsler, D., 1999. Manual for the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence (WASI), San Antonio, TX:The Psychological Corporation.
94. Wollert, R., 2006. Low base rates limit expert certainty when current actuarial tests are used to identify sexually violent predators:An application of Bayes's Theorem. Psychology, Public Policyand Law, 12:56–85.