Recidivism base rates, predictions of sex offender recidivism, and the 'Sexual Predator' commitment laws

Behavioral Sciences and the Law

Volumn 16, Issue 1, 1998, Pages 97-114

  Doren, Dennis M ^a  

^a Mendota Mental Health Institute   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

LAW; PREDATOR; PREDICTION; RECIDIVISM; REVIEW; SEXUAL CRIME; VIOLENCE;

EID: 0031947264     PISSN: 07353936     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1099-0798(199824)16:1<97::AID-BSL295>3.0.CO;2-K     Document Type: Review

References (58)

1. Abel, G. G., Becker, J. V., Mittelman, M., Cunningham-Rathner, J., Rouleau, J. L., & Murphy, W. D. (1987). Self-reported sex-crimes of nonincarcerated paraphiliacs. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2, 3-25.
2. Abel, G. G., Mittelman, M., Becker, J. B., Rathner, J., & Rouleau, J. L. (1988). Predicting child molesters' response to treatment. In R. A. Prentky & V. L. Quinsey (Eds.), Human sexual aggression: Current perspectives (pp. 223-234). New York: Academy of Sciences.
3. Abel, G. G., & Rouleau, J. L. (1990). The nature and extent of sexual assault. In W. L. Marshall, D. R. Laws, & H. E. Barbaree (Eds.), Handbook of sexual assault (pp. 9-21). New York: Plenum Press.
4. Barbaree, H. E., & Marshall, W. L. (1988). Deviant sexual arousal, offense history, and demographic variables as predictors of reoffense among child molesters. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 6, 267-280.
5. Belanger, N., & Earls, C. (in press). An actuarial model for the prediction of recidivism among sexual offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence.
6. Berlin, F. S., Hunt, W. P., Malin, H. M., Dyer, A., Lehne, G. K., & Dean, S. (1991). A five-year plus follow-up survey of criminal recidivism within a treated cohort of 406 pedophiles, 111 exhibition-ists and 109 sexual aggressives: Issues and outcome. American Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 12(3), 5-27.
7. Borum, R. (1996). Improving the clinical practice of violence risk assessment. American Psychologist, 51, 945-956.
8. Broadhurst, R. G., & Maller, R. A. (1992). The recidivism of sex offenders in the western Australian prison population. British Journal of Criminology, 32(1), 54-80.
9. Davis, G. L., Hoffman, R. G., & Stacken, N. (1991). 2-4 year post-incarceration follow-up of treated sex offenders. Unpublished manuscript.
10. Epperson, D. L., Kaul, J. D., & Huot, S. J. (1995, October). Predicting risk of recidivism for incarcerated sex offenders: Updated development on the Sex Offender Screening Tool (SOST). Paper presented at the Fourteenth Annual Research and Treatment conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, New Orleans, Louisiana.
11. Frisbie, L. V., & Dondis, E. H. (1965). Recidivism among treated sex offenders: Mental health research monograph (No. 5). State of California: Department of Mental Health.
12. Furby, L., Weinrott, M. R., & Blackshaw, L. (1989). Sex offender recidivism: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 105, 3-30.
13. Gibbens, T. C. N., Soothill, K. L., & Way, C. K. (1978). Sibling and parent-child incest offenders. British Journal of Criminology, 18, 40-52.
14. Gordon, A., & Bergen, H. (1988). A description and evaluation of the Sexual Offender Program at the Regional Psychiatric Centre (Prairies). Unpublished manuscript.
15. Grisso, T., & Appelbaum, P. S. (1992). Is it unethical to offer predictions of future violence? Law and Human Behavior, 16, 621-633.
16. Grisso, T., & Appelbaum, P. E. (1993). Structuring the debate about ethical predictions of future violence. Law and Human Behavior, 17, 482-485.
17. Groth, A., Longo, R. E., & McFadin, J. B. (1982). Undetected recidivism among rapists and child molesters. Crime and Delinquency, 28, 450-458.
18. Grunfeld, B., & Noreik, K. (1986). Recidivism among sex offenders: A follow-up study of 541 Norwegian sex offenders. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 9, 95-102.
19. Hagen, M. A. (1997). Whores of the court: The fraud of psychiatric testimony and the rape of American justice. New York: Regan/Harper Collins.
20. Hall, G. C. N., & Proctor, W. C. (1987). Criminological predictors of recidivism in a sexual offender population. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 55, 111-112.
21. Hanson, R. K. (1996). Child molester recidivism. Research Summary: Corrections Research and Development, 1, 1-2.
22. Hanson, R. K., & Bussiere, M. T. (1996). Predictors of sexual offender recidivism: A meta-analysis. Ottawa, Ontario: Ministry of the Solicitor General of Canada.
23. Hanson, R. K., Scott, H., & Steffy, R. A. (1995). A comparison of child molesters and nonsexual criminals: Risk predictors and long-term recidivism. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 32, 325-337.
24. Hanson, R. K., Steffy, R. A., & Gauthier, R. (1993). Long-term recidivism of child molesters. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61, 646-652.
25. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315-335.
26. Kansas v. Hendricks, 117 S. Ct. 2072 (1997).
27. Lab, S. P., Shields, G., & Schondel, C. (1993). Research note: An evaluation of juvenile sexual offender treatment. Crime & Delinquency, 39, 543-553.
28. Lieb, R. (1996). Washington's Sexually Violent Predator law: Legislative history and comparisons with other states. Olympia, Washington: Washington State Institute for Public Policy.
29. Marques, J. K., Day, D. M., Nelson, C., & West, M. A. (1993). Findings and recommendations from California's experimental treatment program. In G. C. N. Hall, R. Hirschman, J. R. Graham, & M. S. Zaragoza (Eds.), Sexual aggression: Issues in etiology, assessment, and treatment (pp. 197-214). Washington, D.C.: Hemisphere.
30. Marques, J. K., Day, D. M., Nelson, C., & West, M. A. (1994). Effects of cognitive-behavioral treatment on sex offender recidivism: Preliminary results of a longitudinal study. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 21, 28-54.
31. Marques, J. K., Nelson, C., West, M. A., & Day, D. M. (1994). The relationship between treatment goals and recidivism among child molesters. Behavior Research and Therapy, 32, 577-588.
32. Marshall, P. (1994). Reconviction of imprisoned sexual offenders. Research Bulletin, 36, 23-29.
33. Monahan, J. (1981). The clinical prediction of violent behavior. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
34. Motiuk, L., & Brown, S. L. (1996). Factors related to recidivism among released federal sex offenders. Paper presented at the 26th International Congress of Psychology, Montreal, Canada.
35. Pacht, A. R., Halleck, S. L., & Ehrmann, J. C. (1962). Diagnosis and treatment of the sexual offender: A nine-year study. American Journal of Psychiatry, 118, 802-808.
36. Pithers, W. D., Beal, L. S., Armstrong, J., & Petty, J. (1989). Identification of risk factors through clinical interviews and analysis of records. In D. R. Laws (Ed.), Relapse prevention with sex offenders (pp. 77-87). New York: Guilford.
37. Prentky, R. A., Knight, R. A., & Lee, A. F. S. (1997). Risk factors associated with recidivism among extrafamilial child molesters. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65, 141-149.
38. Prentky, R. A., Lee, A. F. S., Knight, R. A., & Cerce, D. (in press). Sex offender recidivism. Law and Human Behavior.
39. Proulx, J., Pellerin, B., Paradis, Y., McKibben, A., Aubut, J., & Quimet, M. (1997). Static and dynamic predictors of recidivism in sexual aggressors. Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, 9, 7-27.
40. Quinsey, V. L. (1980). The baserate problem and the prediction of dangerousness: A reappraisal. Journal of Psychiatry and the Law, Fall, 329-340.
41. Quinsey, V. L. (1983). Prediction of recidivism and the evaluation of treatment programs for sex offenders. In S. N. Verdun-Jones & A. A. Keltner (Eds.), Sexual aggression and the law (pp. 28-37). Burnaby, British Columbia: Criminology Research Centre.
42. Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Lalumiere, M. (1993). Assessing treatment efficacy in outcome studies of sex offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 8, 512-523.
43. Quinsey, V. L., Lalumiere, M. L., Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (1995). Predicting sexual offenses. In J. C. Campbell (Ed.), Assessing dangerousness: Violence by sexual offenders, batterers, and child abusers (pp. 114-137). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
44. Quinsey, V. L., Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (1995). Actuarial prediction of sexual recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 10, 85-105.
45. Radzinowicz, L. D. (1957). Sexual offenses: A report of the Cambridge Department of Criminal Science. London: MacMillan.
46. Rice, M. E. (1997). Violent offender research and implications for the criminal justice system. American Psychologist, 52, 414-423.
47. Rice, M. E., Harris, G. T., & Quinsey, V. L. (1990). A follow-up of rapists assessed in a maximum-security psychiatric facility. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 5, 435-448.
48. Romero, J. J., & Williams, L. M. (1985). Recidivism among convicted sex offenders: A 10-year followup study. Federal Probation, 47, 58-64.
49. Russell, D. E. H. (1982). The prevalence and incidence of forcible rape and attempted rape of females. Victimology, 7, 81-93.
50. Serin, R. C., Peters, R. D., & Barbaree, H. E. (1990). Predictors of psychopathy and release outcome in a criminal population. Psychological Assessment: A Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 2, 419-422.
51. Soothill, K. L., & Gibbens, T. C. N. (1978). Recidivism of sexual offenders: A re-appraisal. British Journal of Criminology, 18, 267-276.
52. Soothill, K. L., Jack, A., & Gibbens, T. C. N. (1976). Rape: A 22 year cohort study. Medical Science and the Law, 16, 62-69.
53. Steadman, H. J. (1987). How well can we predict violence in adults? A review of the literature and some commentary. In F. Dutile & C. Foust (Eds.), The prediction of criminal violence (pp. 5-19). Springfield, Illinois: Charles C. Thomas.
54. Sturgeon, V. H., & Taylor, J. (1980). Report of a five-year follow-up study of mentally disordered sex offenders released from Atascadero State Hospital in 1973. Criminal Justice Journal, 4(31), 31-63.
55. Tracy, F., Donnelly, H., Morgenbesser, L., & MacDonald, D. (1983). Program evaluation: Recidivism research involving sex offenders. In J. R. Greer & I. R. Stuart (Eds.), The sexual aggressor: Current perspectives in treatment (pp. 198-213). New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
56. Weinrott, M. R., & Saylor, M. (1991). Self report of crimes committed by sex offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 6, 283-300.
57. Wettstein, R. M. (1992). A psychiatric perspective on Washington's Sexually Violent Predators statute. University of Puget Sound Law Review, 15, 597-633.
58. Wing, S. W. (1985). A study of reoffenses by treated sex offenders at Western State Hospital. Unpublished manuscript.