Is newer better? A cross-validation of the Static-2002 and the risk matrix 2000 in a danish sample of sexual offenders

Psychology, Crime and Law

Volumn 14, Issue 2, 2008, Pages 85-106

  Bengtson, Susanne ^a  

^a AARHUS UNIVERSITY   (Denmark)

Author keywords

Actuarial assessment; Recidivism; Risk matrix 2000; Sexual offenders; Static 2002; Static 99

Indexed keywords

EID: 42649106549     PISSN: 1068316X     EISSN: 14772744     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10683160701483104     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Baldessarini, R. J., Finklestein, S., & Arana, G. W. (1983). The predictive power of diagnostic tests and the effect of prevalence of illness. Archives of General Psychiatry, 40, 569-573.
2. Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Langton, C. M., & Peacock, E. J. (2001). Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28, 490-521.
3. Beech, A., Friendship, C., Erikson, M., & Hanson, R. K. (2002). The relationship between static and dynamic risk factors and reconvictions in a sample of U.K. child abusers. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 155-167.
4. Bengtson, S., & Långström, N. (2007). Unguided clinical and actuarial assessment of re-offending risk: A direct long-term comparison with sex offenders in Denmark. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 19, 135-154.
5. Boer, A. (2003). Evaluating the Static-99 and Static-2002 risk scales using Canadian sexual offenders. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Leicester, UK.
6. Boer, D. P., Hart, S. D., Kropp, P. R., & Webster, C. D. (1997). Manual for the Sexual Violence Risk - 20. Professional guidelines for assessing risk of sexual violence. Vancouver, Canada: British Columbia Institute on Family Violence.
7. Craig, L. A., Beech, A., & Browne, K. (2006). Cross-validation of the Risk Matrix 2000 sexual and violent scales. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21, 612-633.
8. Craissati, J., & Beech, A. (2006). The role of key developmental variables in identifying sex offenders likely to fail in the community: An enhanced risk prediction model. Child Abuse and Neglect, 30, 327-339.
9. Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. (2002). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. In T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases. The psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 716-730). New York: Cambridge University Press.
10. de Vogel, V., de Ruiter, C., van Beek, D., & Mead, G. (2004). Predictive validity of the SVR-20 and Static-99 in a Dutch sample of treated sex offenders. Law and Human Behavior, 28, 235-251.
11. DeLong, E. R., DeLong, D. M., & Clarke-Pearson, D. L. (1988). Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operation characteristics curves: A nonparametric approach. Biometrics, 44, 837-854.
12. Furby, L., Weinrott, M. R., & Blackshaw, L. (1989). Sex Offender Recidivism -A Review. Psychological Bulletin, 105, 3-30.
13. Grove, W. M., Zald, D. H., Lebow, B. S., Snitz, B. E., & Nelson, C. (2000). Clinical versus mechanical prediction: A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment, 12, 19-30.
14. Grubin, D. (1998). Sex offending against children: Understanding the risk. London: Home Office.
15. Grubin, D., & Wingate, S. (1996). Sexual offence recidivism: Prediction versus understanding. Criminal Behaviour & Mental Health, 4, 349-359.
16. Haag, A. M. (2005). Construct and predictive validity of the variables of the Static-2002 and Static-99: The impact of treatment in prediction. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
17. Hanson, R. K. (1997). The development of a brief actuarial risk scale for sexual offense recidivism (Report No. 1997-04). Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
18. Hanson R. K., & Bussière, M. T. (1996). Predictors of sexual offender recidivism: A meta-analysis (Report No. 1996-04). Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
19. Hanson, R. K., & Harris, A. J. R. (2000). Where should we intervene? Dynamic predictors of sexual offense recidivism. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 27, 6-35.
20. Hanson, R. K., Morton, K. E., & Harris, A. J. (2003). Sexual offender recidivism risk: What we know and what we need to know. In R. A. Prentky, E. S. Janus, & M. C. Seto (Eds), Sexually coercive behavior: Understanding and management (pp. 154-166). Annals of the New York Academy of Science, Vol. 989. New York: New York Academy of Sciences.
21. Hanson, R. K., & Morton-Bourgon, K. (2004). Predictors of sexual recidivism: An updated meta-analysis (Report No. 2004-02). Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
22. Hanson, R. K., & Morton-Bourgon, K. (2007). The accuracy of recidivism risk assessments for sexual offenders: A metaanalysis (Report No. 2007-01). Ottawa, ON: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
23. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Improving risk assessments for sex offenders: A comparison of three actuarial scales. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 119-136.
24. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2003a). Notes on the development of Static-2002 (Report No. 2003-01). Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
25. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2003b). Coding rules for Static-2002. Unpublished manuscript. Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
26. Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2005). Coding rules for Static-2002. Unpublished manuscript. Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
27. Harris, A., Phenix, A., Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2003a). Static-99 coding rules - revised 2003. Ottawa, Canada: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
28. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., Quinsey, V. L., Lalumiere, M. L., Boer, D., & Lang, C. (2003b). A multisite comparison of actuarial risk instruments for sex offenders. Psychological Assessment, 15, 413-425.
29. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (2002). Prospective replication of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients. Law & Human Behavior, 26, 377-394.
30. Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Quinsey, V. L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice & Behavior, 315-335.
31. Hart, S. D. (1998). The role of psychopathy in assessing risk for violence: Conceptual and methodological issues. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 3, 121-137.
32. Heilbrun, K. (1997). Prediction versus management models relevant to risk assessment: The importance of legal decision-making context. Law and Human Behavior, 4, 347-359.
33. Heilbrun, K., Dvoskin, J., Hart, S. D., & McNeil, D. (1999). Violence risk communication: Implications for research, policy, and practice. Health. Risk & Society, 1, 91-106.
34. Hood, R., Shute, S., Feilzer, M., & Wilcox, A. (2002). Sex offenders emerging from long-term imprisonment - A study of their long-term reconviction rates and of parole board members' judgements of their risk. British Journal of Criminology, 42, 371-394.
35. Janus, E. S., & Prentky, R. A. (2003). Forensic use of actuarial risk assessment with sex offenders: Accuracy, admissibility and accountability. American Criminal Law Review, 40, 1443-1499.
36. Knight, R. A., & Sims-Knight, J. E. (2003). The developmental antecedents of sexual coersion against women: Testing alternative hypotheses with structural equation modeling. In R. A. Prentky, E. S. Janus, & M. C. Seto (Eds), Sexually coercive behavior: Understanding and management (pp. 72-85). Annals of the New York Academy of Science, Vol. 989. New York: New York Academy of Sciences.
37. Kramp, P. (2005). Concepts and procedures in the member states - Denmark. In H. J. Salize, & H. Dressing (Eds.), Placement and treatment of mentally disordered offenders - legislation and practice in the European Union (pp. 152-177). Lengerich, Germany: Pabst Science Publishers.
38. Langton, C. M., Barbaree, H. E., Hansen, K. T., Harkins, L., & Peacock, E. J. (2007). Reliability and validity of the Static-2002 among adult sex offenders with reference to treatment status. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 616-640.
39. Langton, C. M., Barbaree, H. E., Seto, M. C., Peacock, E. J., Harkins, L., & Hansen, K. T. (2007). Actuarial assessment of risk for reoffence among adult sex offenders: Evaluating the predictive accuracy of the Static-2002 and five other instruments. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 37-59.
40. Litwack, T. R. (2001). Actuarial versus clinical assessments of dangerousness. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 7, 409-443.
41. Mossman, D. (1994). Assessing predictions of violence: Being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62, 783-792.
42. Munk-Jorgensen, P., & Mortensen, P. B. (1997). The Danish Psychiatric Central Register. Danish Medical Bulletin, 44, 82-84.
43. Pedersen, S. B., & Pedersen, L. (2006). Implementation of risk assessment instruments in clinical settings in Denmark -preliminary results. Poster presented at the annual conference of the International Association of Forensic Mental Health, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
44. Phenix, A., Hanson, R. K., & Thornton, D. (2000). Coding rules for the Static-99 (Report No. Corrections research: Manuals and forms). Ottawa, ON: Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada.
45. Prentky, R. A., Lee, A. F., Knight, R. A., & Cerce, D. (1997). Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: A methodological analysis. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 635-659.
46. Quinsey, V. L., Harris, G. T., Rice, M. E., & Cormier, C. A. (1998). Violent offenders. Appraising and managing risk. Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
47. Rice, M. E., & Harris, G. T. (2005). Comparing effect sizes in follow-up studies: ROC, Cohen's d and r. Law and Human Behavior, 29, 615-620.
48. Seto, M. C. (2005). Is more better? Combining actuarial risk scales to predict recidivism among adult sex offenders. Psychological Assessment, 17, 156-167.
49. Sjöstedt, G., & Grann, M. (2002). Risk assessment: What is being predicted by actuarial prediction instruments? International Journal of Forensic Mental Health, 1, 179-183.
50. Sjöstedt, G., & Långström, N. (2001). Actuarial assessment of sex offender recidivism risk: A cross-validation of the RRASOR and the Static-99 in Sweden. Law and Human Behavior, 25, 629-645.
51. Sjöstedt, G., & Långström, N. (2002). Assessment of risk for criminal recidivism among rapists: A comparison of four different measures. Psychology. Crime & Law, 8, 25-40.
52. Tape, T. (2006). The area under the ROC curve. Retrieved February 2006 from: http://gim.unmc.edu/dxtests/ROC3.htm.
53. Thornton, D. (2006). Scoring guide for Risk Matrix 2000.8/SVC (Report No. July 2006 Version).
54. Thornton, D. (2002). Constructing and testing a framework for dynamic risk assessment. Sexual Abuse: Journal of Research and Treatment, 14, 139-153.
55. Thornton, D., Mann, R. E., Webster, S., Blud, L., Travers, R., Friendship, C. et al. (2003). Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism. In R. A. Prentky, E. S. Janus, & M. C. Seto (Eds), Sexually coercive behavior: Understanding and management (pp. 225-235). Annals of the New York Academy of Science, Vol. 989. New York: New York Academy of Sciences.
56. Ward, T., & Siegert, R. J. (2003). Toward a comprehensive theory of child sexual abuse: A theory knitting perspective. Psychology, Crime and Law, 8, 351.