The impact of climate change on groundwater resources

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management

Volumn 1, Issue 3, 2009, Pages 241-254

  Hendricks Franssen, Harrie Jan ^a  

^a ETH ZURICH   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Global warming; Groundwater; Precipitation

Indexed keywords

EID: 84992963227     PISSN: 17568692     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1108/17568690910977465     Document Type: Review

References (76)

1. Alcolea, A., Carrera, J. and Medina, A. (2006), “Pilot points method incorporating prior information for solving the groundwater flow inverse problem”, Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 29 No. 11, pp. 1678-89.
2. Allen, D.M., Mackie, D.C. and Wei, M. (2004), “Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the grand forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada”, Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 12 No. 3, pp. 270-90.
3. Arnell, N.W. (1998), “Climate change and water resources in Britain”, Climatic Change, Vol. 39 No. 1, pp. 83-110.
4. Arpe, K. and Roeckner, E. (1999), “Simulation of the hydrological cycle over Europe: model validation and impacts of increasing greenhouse gases”, Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 23 No. 2, pp. 105-19.
5. AWEL (2004), “Hydrographische Jahrbücher Grundwasser”, available at: www.grundwasser.zh.ch/internet/bd/awel/gs/gw/de/messdaten/jahrbuch_grundwasser.html (accessed 19 December 2008).
6. 2 flux”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 140 Nos 1/4, pp. 322-37.
7. Bennett, A.F. (1992), Inverse Methods in Physical Oceanography, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
8. Betts, A.K. (2004), “Understanding hydrometeorology using global models”, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 85 No. 11, pp. 1673-88.
9. Betts, A.K., Ball, J.H., Beljaars, A.C.M., Miller, M.J. and Viterbo, P. (1996), “The land surface-atmosphere interaction: a review based on observational and global modeling perspectives”, JGR-Atmospheres, Vol. 101, D3, pp. 7209-25.
10. Bouraoui, F., Vachaud, G., Li, L.Z.X., Le Treut, H. and Chen, T. (1999), “Evaluation of the impact of climate changes on water storage and groundwater recharge at the watershed scale”, Climate Dynamics, Vol. 15 No. 2, pp. 153-61.
11. Brouyère, S., Carabin, G. and Dassargues, A. (2004), “Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modeled deficits in a chalky aquifer, Geer Basin, Belgium”, Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 123-34.
12. Brutsaert, W. (2005), Hydrology. An Introduction, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
13. Busuioc, A., von Storch, H. and Schnur, R. (1999), “Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and statistical downscaling”, Journal of Climate, Vol. 12 No. 1, pp. 258-72.
14. Carrera, J. and Neuman, S.P. (1986), “Estimation of aquifer parameters under transient and steady state conditions: 1. Maximum likelihood method incorporating prior information”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 22 No. 2, pp. 199-210.
15. Ciais, P., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogee, J., Allard, V., Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, C., Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., de Noblet, N., Friend, A.D., Friedlingstein, P., Grunwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J.M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J.F., Sanz, M.J., Schulze, E.D., Vesala, T. and Valentini, R. (2005), “Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003”, Nature, Vol. 437 No. 7058, pp. 529-33.
16. Cohen, D., Person, M., Daannen, R., Locke, S., Dahlstrom, D., Zabielski, V., Winter, T.C., Rosenberry, D.O., Wright, H., Ito, E., Nieber, J.L. and Gutowski, W.J. (2006), “Groundwater-supported evapotranspiration within glaciated watersheds under conditions of climate change”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 320 Nos 3/4, pp. 484-500.
17. Déqué, M., Rowell, D.P., Lüthi, D., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J.H., Rockel, B., Jacob, D., Kjellström, E., de Castro, M. and van den Hurk, B. (2007), “An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections”, Climatic Change, Vol. 81, Supp. 1, pp. 53-70.
18. Doppler, T., Hendricks Franssen, H.J., Kaiser, H.P., Kuhlmann, U. and Stauffer, F. (2007), “Field evidence of a dynamic leakage coefficient for modelling river-aquifer interactions”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 347 Nos 1/2, pp. 177-87.
19. Eckhardt, K. and Ulbrich, U. (2003), “Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and streamflow in a central European low mountain range”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 284 Nos 1/4, pp. 244-52.
20. Eltahir, E.A.B. (1998), “A soil moisture-rainfall feedback mechanism, 1. Theory and observations”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 34 No. 4, pp. 765-76.
21. Feddema, J.J. and Freire, S. (2001), “Soil degradation, global warming and climate impacts”, Climate Research, Vol. 17 No. 2, pp. 209-16.
22. Finnigan, J.J., Clement, R., Malhi, Y., Leuning, R. and Cleugh, H.A. (2003), “A re-evaluation of long-term flux measurement techniques. Part 1: averaging and coordinate rotation”, Boundary-Layer Meteorology, Vol. 107 No. 1, pp. 1-48.
23. Foken, T., Wimmer, F., Mauder, M., Thomas, C. and Liebethal, C. (2006), “Some aspects of the energy balance closure problem”, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 6 No. 12, pp. 4395-402.
24. Frei, C. (2007), Die Klimazukunft der Schweiz-Eine probabilistische Projektion, Meteoswiss, Zurich.
25. Frei, C., Schöll, R., Fukutome, S., Schmidli, J. and Vidale, P.L. (2006), “Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, D06105.
26. Göckede, M., Foken, T., Aubinet, M., Aurela, M., Banza, J., Bernhofer, C., Bonnefond, J.M., Brunet, Y., Carrara, A., Clement, R., Dellwik, E., Elber, J., Eugster, W., Fuhrer, J., Granier, A., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Janssens, I.A., Knohl, A., Koeble, R., Laurila, T., Longdoz, B., Manca, G., Marek, M., Markkanen, T., Mateus, J., Matteucci, G., Mauder, M., Migliavacca, M., Minerbi, S., Moncrieff, J., Montagnani, L., Moors, E., Ourcival, J.-M., Papale, D., Pereira, J., Pilegaard, K., Pita, G., Rambal, S., Rebmann, C., Rodrigues, A., Rotenberg, E., Sanz, M.J., Sedlak, P., Seufert, G., Siebicke, L., Soussana, J.F., Valentini, R., Vesala, T., Verbeeck, H. and Yakir, D. (2008), “Quality control of CarboEurope flux data – part 1: coupling footprint analysis with flux data quality assessment to evaluate sites in forest ecosystems”, Biogeosciences, Vol. 5 No. 2, pp. 433-50.
27. Gómez-Hernández, J.J., Sahuquillo, A. and Capilla, J.E. (1997), “Stochastic simulation of transmissivity fields conditional to both transmissivity and piezometric data. 1. Theory”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 203 No. 1, pp. 162-74.
28. Green, T.R., Bates, B.C., Charles, S.P. and Fleming, P.M. (2007), “Physically based simulation of potential effects of carbon dioxide-altered climates on groundwater recharge”, Vadose Zone Journal, Vol. 6 No. 3, pp. 597-609.
29. Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F.J. and Palmer, T.N. (2005), “The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting – I. Basic concept”, Tellus A, Vol. 57 No. 3, pp. 219-33.
30. Hendricks Franssen, H.J., Gómez-Hernández, J.J. and Sahuquillo, A. (2003), “Coupled inverse modelling of groundwater flow and mass transport and the worth of concentration data”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 281 No. 4, pp. 281-95.
31. Hendricks Franssen, H.J., Stöckli, R., Lehner, I., Rotenberg, E. and Seneviratne, S.I. (2009), “Energy balance closure problems in eddy covariance data: the role of atmospheric stability and wind velocity”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (in press).
32. Hernandez, A.F., Neuman, S.P., Guadagnini, A. and Carrera, J. (2003), “Conditioning mean steady state flow on hydraulic head and conductivity through geostatistical inversion”, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Vol. 17 No. 5, pp. 329-38.
33. Hernandez, A.F., Neuman, S.P., Guadagnini, A. and Carrera, J. (2006), “Inverse stochastic moment analysis of steady state flow in randomly heterogeneous media”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, W05425.
34. Hertig, E. and Jacobeit, J. (2007), “Assessments of mediterranean precipitation changes for the 21st century using statistical downscaling techniques”, International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 28 No. 8, pp. 1025-45.
35. Holman, I.P. (2006), “Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge-uncertainty, shortcomings and the way forward?”, Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 14 No. 5, pp. 637-47.
36. Hsu, K.C., Wang, C.H., Chen, K.-C., Chen, C.-T. and Ma, K.-W. (2007), “Climate-induced hydrological impacts on the groundwater system of the Pingtung Plain, Taiwan”, Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 15 No. 5, pp. 903-13.
37. Hunt, R.J., Prudic, D.E., Walker, J.F. and Anderson, M.P. (2008), “Importance of unsaturated zone flow for simulating recharge in a humid climate”, Ground Water, Vol. 46 No. 4, pp. 551-60.
38. Inagaki, A., Letzel, M.O., Raasch, S. and Kanda, M. (2006), “Impact of surface heterogeneity on energy imbalance: a study using LES”, Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 84 No. 1, pp. 187-98.
39. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007), “Climate change, 2007: the physical science basis”, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, released in Paris on 2 February.
40. Jyrkama, M.I. and Sykes, J.F. (2007), “The impact of climate change on spatially varying groundwater recharge in the grand river watershed (Ontario)”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 338 Nos 3/4, pp. 237-50.
41. Kalnay, E. (2003), Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
42. Kitanidis, P. (1995), “Quasi-linear geostatistical theory for inversing”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 31 No. 10, pp. 2411-9.
43. Koster, R.D. and Suarez, M.J. (2001), “Soil moisture memory in climate models”, Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 2 No. 6, pp. 558-70.
44. Koster, R.D., Guo, Z., Dirmeyer, P.A., Bonan, G., Chan, E., Cox, P., Davies, H., Gordon, C.T., Kanae, S., Kowalczyk, E., Lawrence, D., Liu, P., Lu, C.-H., Malyshev, S., McAveney, B., Mitchell, K., Mocko, D., Oki, T., Oleson, K.W., Pitman, A., Sud, Y.C., Taylor, C.M., Verseghy, D., Vasic, R., Xue, Y. and Yamada, T. (2006), “GLACE: the global land-atmosphere coupling experiment. Part 1. Overview”, Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 7 No. 4, pp. 590-610.
45. LaVenue, A.M., RamaRao, B.S., de Marsily, G. and Marietta, M.G. (1995), “Pilot point methodology for automated calibration of an ensemble of conditionally simulated transmissivity fields. 1. Theory and computational experiments”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 31 No. 3, pp. 475-94.
46. Liu, Y. and Gupta, H.V. (2007), “Uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: toward an integrated data assimilation framework”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 43, W07401.
47. Loaiciga, H.A. (2003), “Climate change and ground water”, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 93 No. 1, pp. 30-41.
48. Loaiciga, H.A., Maidment, D.R. and Valdes, J.B. (2000), “Climate-change impacts in a regional karst aquifer, Texas, USA”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 227 No. 1, pp. 173-94.
49. Moustadraf, J., Razack, M. and Sinan, M. (2008), “Evaluation of the impacts of climate changes on the coastal Chaouia aquifer, Morocco, using numerical modelling”, Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 16 No. 7, pp. 1411-26.
50. Oleson, K.W., Niu, G.-Y., Yang, Z.-L., Lawrence, D.M., Thornton, P.E., Lawrence, P.J., Stöckli, R., Dickinson, R.E., Bonan, G.B., Levis, S., Dai, A. and Qian, T. (2008), “Improvements to the community land model and their impact on the hydrological cycle”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, G01021.
51. Overgaard, J. (2005), “Energy-base land-surface modelling – new opportunities in integrated hydrological modelling”, PhD thesis, Denmark Technical University, Lingby.
52. Overgaard, J., Rosbjerg, D. and Butts, M.B. (2006), “Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective – a review”, Biogeosciences, Vol. 3 No. 2, pp. 229-41.
53. Pfister, L., Kwadijk, J., Musy, A., Bronstert, A. and Hoffmann, L. (2004), “Climate change, land use change and runoff prediction in the Rhine-Meuse basins”, River Research and Applications, Vol. 20 No. 3, pp. 229-41.
54. Refsgaard, A., Seth, S.M., Bathurst, J.C., Erlich, M., Storm, B., J⊘rgensen, G.H. and Chandra, S. (1992), “Application of the SHE to catchments in India – part 1: general results”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 140 Nos 1/4, pp. 1-23.
55. Richardson, A.D. and Hollinger, D.Y. (2005), “Statistical modeling of ecosystem respiration using eddy covariance data: maximum likelihood parameter estimation, and Monte Carlo simulation of model and parameter uncertainty, applied to three simple models”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 131 Nos 3/4, pp. 191-208.
56. Rosenberg, N.J., Epstein, D.J., Wang, D., Vail, L., Srinivasan, R. and Arnold, J.G. (1999), “Possible impacts of global warming on the hydrology of the Ogallala aquifer region”, Climatic Change, Vol. 42 No. 4, pp. 677-92.
57. Schär, C., Lüthi, D. and Beyerle, U. (1999), “The soil-precipitation feedback: a process study with a regional climate model”, Journal of Climate, Vol. 12 No. 3, pp. 722-41.
58. Schär, C., Vidale, P.L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C., Liniger, M.A. and Appenzeller, C. (2004), “The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves”, Nature, Vol. 427 No. 6972, pp. 332-6.
59. Scibek, J. and Allen, D.M. (2006a), “Comparing modeled responses of two high-permeability, unconfined aquifers to predicted climate change”, Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 50 Nos 1-2, pp. 50-62.
60. Scibek, J. and Allen, D.M. (2006b), “Modeled impacts of predicted climate change on recharge and groundwater levels”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 42, W11405.
61. Scibek, J., Allen, D.M., Cannon, A.J. and Whitfield, P.H. (2007), “Groundwater-surface water interaction under scenarios of climate change using a high-resolution transient groundwater model”, Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 333 Nos 2/3, pp. 165-81.
62. Semenov, S., Kovalevskii, V. and Batrak, G. (2004), “The effect of climate change on groundwater resources over the Russian territory”, Abstract No. EGU04-A-07678 of the EGU Conference 2004.
63. Seneviratne, S.I. and Stöckli, R. (2008), “The role of land-atmosphere interactions for climate variability in Europe (The Netherlands)”, in Brönnimann, S. (Ed.), Climate Variability and Extremes During the Past 100 Years, Vol. 100, Springer, Wageningen, pp. 179-92.
64. Seneviratne, S.I., Lüthi, D., Litschi, M. and Schär, C. (2006a), “Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe”, Nature, Vol. 443 No. 7108, pp. 205-9.
65. Seneviratne, S.I., Koster, R.D., Guo, Z., Dirmeyer, P.A., Kowalczyk, E., Lawrence, D., Liu, P., Lu, C.-H., Mocko, D., Oleson, K.W. and Verseghy, D. (2006b), “Soil moisture memory in AGCM simulations: analysis of global land-atmosphere coupling experiment (GLACE) data”, Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 7 No. 5, pp. 1090-112.
66. Stöckli, R., Lawrence, D.M., Niu, G.-Y., Oleson, K.W., Thornton, P.E., Yang, Z.-L., Bonan, G.B., Denning, A.S. and Running, S.W. (2008), “Use of FLUXNET in the community land model development”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, G01025.
67. Therrien, R. and Sudicky, E.A. (1996), “Three-dimensional analysis of variable-saturated flow and solute transport in discretely-fractured porous media”, Journal Contaminant Hydrolology, Vol. 23 Nos 1/2, pp. 1-44.
68. Tonkin, M., Doherty, J. and Moore, C. (2007), “Efficient nonlinear predictive error variance for highly parameterized models”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 43, W07429.
69. Vaccaro, J.J. (1992), “Sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington”, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 97, D3, pp. 2821-33.
70. Valstar, J.R. (2001), “Inverse modeling of groundwater flow and transport”, PhD thesis, Delft University of Technology, Delft.
71. Vörösmarty, C.J., Green, P., Salisbury, J. and Lammers, R.B. (2000), “Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth”, Science, Vol. 289 No. 5477, pp. 284-8.
72. Vrugt, J. and Robinson, B.A. (2007), “Improved evolutionary optimization from genetically adaptive multimethod search methods”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 104 No. 3, pp. 708-11.
73. Vrugt, J., Gupta, H.V., Bouten, W. and Sorooshian, S. (2003), “A shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrologic model parameters”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 39 No. 8, pp. 1201-16.
74. Vrugt, J., Dirks, C.G.H., Gupta, H.V., Bouten, W. and Verstraten, J.M. (2005), “Improved treatment of uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: combining the strengths of global optimization and data assimilation”, Water Resources Research, Vol. 41, W01017.
75. Wilson, K., Goldstein, A., Falge, E., Aubinet, M., Baldocchi, D., Berbigier, P., Bernhofer, C., Ceulemans, R., Dolman, H., Field, C., Grelle, A., Ibrom, A., Law, B.E., Kowalski, A., Meyers, T., Moncrieff, J., Monson, R., Oechel, W., Tenhunen, J., Valentini, R. and Verma, S. (2002), “Energy balance closure at FLUXNET sites”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 113 No. 1, pp. 223-43.
76. Woldeamlak, S.T., Batelaan, O. and de Smedt, F. (2007), “Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment”, Belgium, Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 15 No. 5, pp. 891-901.