A Monte Carlo evolution of the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) to assess performance variability in complex systems

Safety Science

Volumn 91, Issue , 2017, Pages 49-60

  Patriarca, Riccardo ^a   Di Gravio, Giulio ^a   Costantino, Francesco ^a  

^a SAPIENZA UNIVERSITY OF ROME   (Italy)

Author keywords

FRAM; Monte Carlo; Resilience engineering; Safety assessment; Safety II

Indexed keywords

ADVANCED TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS; AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL; COUPLINGS; INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SAFETY ENGINEERING; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS;

AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS; DIFFERENT OPERATING CONDITIONS; FRAM; FUNCTIONAL RESONANCE ANALYSIS METHODS (FRAM); ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES; QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORKS; RESILIENCE ENGINEERINGS; SAFETY ASSESSMENTS;

MONTE CARLO METHODS;

AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT; ANALYTIC METHOD; APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY; ARTICLE; AVIATION; ETHICS; FUNCTIONAL RESONANCE ANALYSIS METHOD; LITERATURE; MONITORING; MONTE CARLO METHOD; ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE; OUTCOME VARIABLE; PERFORMANCE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; STRUCTURE ANALYSIS; SYSTEM ANALYSIS; TRAFFIC SAFETY;

EID: 84979555301     PISSN: 09257535     EISSN: 18791042     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ssci.2016.07.016     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Amorim, A.G., Pereira, C.M.N.A., Improvisation at workplace and accident causation – an exploratory study. Proc. Manuf. 3 (2015), 1804–1811, 10.1016/j.promfg.2015.07.219.
2. Belmonte, F., Schön, W., Heurley, L., Capel, R., Interdisciplinary safety analysis of complex socio-technological systems based on the functional resonance accident model: an application to railway trafficsupervision. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 96 (2011), 237–249, 10.1016/j.ress.2010.09.006.
3. Caralli, R., 2006. Sustaining Operational Resiliency: A Process Improvement Approach to Security Management.
4. Carlson, L., 2012. Resilience: Theory and Applications.
5. Clay-Williams, R., Hounsgaard, J., Hollnagel, E., Where the rubber meets the road: using FRAM to align work-as-imagined with work-as-done when implementing clinical guidelines. Implement. Sci., 10, 2015, 125, 10.1186/s13012-015-0317-y.
6. De Carvalho, P.V.R., The use of Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) in a mid-air collision to understand some characteristics of the air traffic management system resilience. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 96 (2011), 1482–1498, 10.1016/j.ress.2011.05.009.
7. Di Gravio, G., Mancini, M., Patriarca, R., Costantino, F., Overall safety performance of Air Traffic Management system: forecasting and monitoring. Saf. Sci. 72 (2015), 351–362, 10.1016/j.ssci.2014.10.003.
8. Di Gravio, G., Mancini, M., Patriarca, R., Costantino, F., Overall safety performance of the air traffic management system: indicators and analysis. J. Air Transp. Manage. 44–45 (2015), 65–69, 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2015.02.005.
9. Di Gravio, G., Patriarca, R., Mancini, M., Costantino, F., Overall safety performance of the Air Traffic Management system: the Italian ANSP's experience on APF. Res. Transp. Bus. Manage., 2016, 10.1016/j.rtbm.2016.03.001.
10. Dunn, W., Shultis, J.K., Exploring Monte Carlo Methods. 2011, Elsevier.
11. EUROCONTROL, 2001. ESARR 4: Risk Assessment and Mitigation in Atm.
12. EUROCONTROL, 2009. A White Paper on Resilience Engineering for ATM 1-16.
13. Futron Corporation, 2010. The Aerospace Performance Factor. How the APF is changing the way aviation views safety information.
14. Heinrich, H.W., Industrial Accident Prevention: A Scientific Approach. 1931, McGraw-Hill.
15. Herrera, I.A., Hollnagel, E., Håbrekke, S., Proposing safety performance indicators for helicopter offshore on the Norwegian continental shelf. PSAM 10 – Tenth Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, 2010.
16. Hollnagel, E., Barriers and Accident Prevention. 2004, Ashgate.
17. Hollnagel, E., FRAM: The Functional Resonance Analysis Method: Modelling Complex Socio-Technical Systems. 2012, Ashgate.
18. Hollnagel, E., 2015. RAG – Resilience Analysis Grid 1–7.
19. Hollnagel, E., Paries, J., Woods, D.D., Wreathall, J., 2011. Resilience Engineering in Practice: A Guidebook, Ashgate Studies in Resilience Engineering.
20. Hollnagel, E., Pruchnicki, S., Woltjer, R., Etcher, S., Analysis of Comair flight 5191 with the functional resonance accident model. 8th International Symposium on Australian Aviation Psychology Association, 2008.
21. IATA, 2013. 2012 Best in History of Continuous Safety Improvements.
22. ICAO, 2007. DOC 9870: Manual on the Prevention of Runway Incursions.
23. ICAO, 2013. DOc 9859 - AN/474 Safety Management Manual (SMM), third ed.
24. Jacquemart, D., Morio, J., Conflict probability estimation between aircraft with dynamic importance splitting. Saf. Sci. 51 (2013), 94–100, 10.1016/j.ssci.2012.05.010.
25. Leveson, N., A new accident model for engineering safer systems. Saf. Sci., 2004, 10.1016/S0925-7535(03)00047-X.
26. Lundblad, K., Speziali, J., FRAM as a risk assessment method for nuclear fuel transportation. International Conference on Working on Safety, 2008.
27. Nouvel, D., Travadel, S., Hollnagel, E., Introduction of the concept of functional resonance in the analysis of a near-accident in aviation. 33rd ESReDA Seminar: Future Challenges of Accident Investigation, 2007, 9.
28. Pereira, A.G.A.A., Introduction to the use of FRAM on the effectiveness assessment of a radiopharmaceutical dispatches process. 2013 International Nuclear Atlantic Conference (INAC 2013), 2013.
29. Praetorius, G.G., Hollnagel, E.E.E.E., Dahlman, J.J., Modelling vessel traffic service to understand resilience in everyday operations. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 141 (2015), 10–21, 10.1016/j.ress.2015.03.020.
30. Reason, J., The contribution of latent human failures to the breakdown of complex systems. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. Biol. Sci. 327 (1990), 475–484, 10.1098/rstb.1990.0090.
31. Rosa, L.V.L.V., Haddad, A.N.A.N., de Carvalho, P.V.R.P.V.R., Assessing risk in sustainable construction using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). Cogn. Technol. Work 17 (2015), 559–573, 10.1007/s10111-015-0337-z.
32. Saurin, T.A.T.A., Sanches, R.C.R.C., Lean construction and resilience engineering: complementary perspectives of variability. Kalsaas, B.T., Koskela, L., Saurin, T.A., (eds.) 22nd Annual Conference of the International Group for Lean Construction: Understanding and Improving Project Based Production, IGLC 2014, 2014, The International Group for Lean Construction, 61–71.
33. Sawaragi, T., Horiguchi, Y., Hina, A., Safety analysis of systemic accidents triggered by performance deviation. 2006 SICE-ICASE International Joint Conference, 2006, IEEE, 1778–1781, 10.1109/SICE.2006.315635.
34. Shirali, G., Ebrahipour, V., Mohammad salahi, L., Proactive risk assessment to identify emergent risks using functional resonance analysis method (FRAM): a case study in an oil process unit. Iran Occup. Heal. 10 (2013), 33–46.
35. Steen, R., Aven, T., A risk perspective suitable for resilience engineering. Saf. Sci. 49 (2011), 292–297, 10.1016/j.ssci.2010.09.003.
36. Stroeve, S.H., Blom, H.a.P., (Bert) Bakker, G.J., Systemic accident risk assessment in air traffic by Monte Carlo simulation. Saf. Sci. 47 (2009), 238–249, 10.1016/j.ssci.2008.04.003.
37. Sujan, M.-A., Felici, M., Combining failure mode and functional resonance analyses in healthcare settings. Lect. Notes Comput. Sci. (including Subser. Lect. Notes Artif. Intell. Lect. Notes Bioinformatics), vol. 7612, 2012, 364–375, 10.1007/978-3-642-33678-2_31.
38. Woltjer, R., Smith, K., Hollnagel, E., Functional modeling and constraint management in command and control: two microworld studies. 10th IFAC/IFIP/IFORS/IEA Symposium on Analytical Design Evaluation and Human-Machine Systems, 2007.
39. Wood, M., Dannatt, R., Marshall, V., Bureau, A.T.S., Assessing institutional resilience: a useful guide for airline safety managers?. Atsb Res. Anal. Rep., 2006.