Risk ranking of tunnel construction projects by using the ELECTRE technique under a fuzzy environment

International Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management

Volumn 8, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 1-14

  Yazdani Chamzini, Abdolreza ^a   Yakhchali, Siamak Haji ^b   Mahmoodian, Mahmood ^b  

^a ISLAMIC AZAD UNIVERSITY   (Iran)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN   (Iran)

Author keywords

Fuzzy ELECTRE; Multicriteria decision making; Risk ranking; Tehran subway

Indexed keywords

EID: 84971011115     PISSN: 17509653     EISSN: 17509661     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/17509653.2013.783185     Document Type: Article

References (88)

1. Almeida, A. T., 2007. Multicriteria decision model for outsourcing contracts selection based on utility function and ELECTRE method. Computers & Operations Research, 34:3569–3574.
2. Amigun, B., Petrie, D., and Görgens, J., 2011. Economic risk assessment of advanced process technologies for bioethanol production in South Africa:Monte Carlo analysis. Renewable Energy, 36:3178–3186.
3. Au, S. K., Wang, Z. H., and Lo, S. M., 2007. Compartment fire risk analysis by advanced Monte Carlo simulation. Engineering Structures, 29:2381–2390.
4. Balmat, J. F., Lafont, F., Maifret, R., and Pessel, N., 2009. Maritime RISk Assessment (MARISA), a fuzzy approach to define an individual ship risk factor. Ocean Engineering, 36:1278–1286.
5. Banaitienė, N., Banaitis, A., and Norkus, A., 2011. Risk management in projects:Peculiarities of Lithuanian construction companies. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 15:60–73.
6. Benayoun, R., Roy, B., and Sussman, N., 1966. “Manual de reference du programme electre, Note de Synthese et Formation, No. 25”. Paris, Franch:Direction Scientifique SEMA.
7. Carlsson, B., 2004. Initial Risk Analysis of Potential Failure Modes. Performance and Durability Assessment, Chapter 4.2 Edited by:Köhl, M., Carlsson, B., Jorgensen, G. J., and Czanderna, A. W., 147–157. UK:Elsevier Ltd.
8. Carmel, Y., Paz, Sh., Jahashan, F., and Shoshan, M., 2009. Assessing fire risk using Monte Carlo simulations of fire spread. Forest Ecology and Management, 257:370–377.
9. Cavallaro, F., 2010. A comparative assessment of thin-film photovoltaic production processes using the ELECTRE III method. Energy Policy, 38:463–474.
10. Chen, C. T., and Hung, W. Z., 2008. “Applying fuzzy linguistic variable and ELECTRE method in R&D project evaluation and selection”. In IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM 2008), 999–1003. Singapore:IEEE.
11. Chen, Sh. J., and Chen, Sh. M., 2008. Fuzzy risk analysis based on measures of similarity between interval-valued fuzzy numbers. Computers & Mathematics with Applications, 55:1670–1685.
12. Chen, Sh. M., and Chen, J. H., 2009a. Fuzzy risk analysis based on ranking generalized fuzzy numbers with different heights and different spreads. Expert Systems with Applications, 36:6833–6842.
13. Chen, Sh. M., and Chen, J. H., 2009b. Fuzzy risk analysis based on similarity measures between interval-valued fuzzy numbers and interval-valued fuzzy number arithmetic operators. Expert Systems with Applications, 36:6309–6317.
14. Chen, Sh. M., and Sanguansat, K., 2011a. Analyzing fuzzy risk based on similarity measures between interval-valued fuzzy numbers. Expert Systems with Applications, 38:8612–8621.
15. Chen, Sh. M., and Sanguansat, K., 2011b. Analyzing fuzzy risk based on a new fuzzy ranking method between generalized fuzzy numbers. Expert Systems with Applications, 38:2163–2171.
16. Chen, Sh. M., and Wang, Ch. H., 2009. Fuzzy risk analysis based on ranking fuzzy numbers using α-cuts, belief features and signal/noise ratios. Expert Systems with Applications, 36:5576–5581.
17. Doumpos, M., and Zopounidis, C., 2002. Multicriteria Decision Aid Classification Methods, Dordrecht, The Netherlands:Kluwer.
18. Duddeck, H., 1987. Risk assessment and risk sharing in tunnelling. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2:315–317.
19. Einstein, H. H., 1996. Risk and risk analysis in rock engineering. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 11:141–155.
20. Elsayed, T., 2009. Fuzzy inference system for the risk assessment of liquefied natural gas carriers during loading/offloading at terminals. Applied Ocean Research, 31:179–185.
21. Eskesen, S. D., Tengborg, P., Kampmann, J., and Veicherts, T. H., 2004. Guidelines for tunnelling risk management:International Tunnelling Association, Working Group No. 2. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 19:217–237.
22. Farret, R., Gombert, P., Lahaie, F., Cherkaoui, A., Lafortune, S., and Roux, P., 2011. Design of fault trees as a practical method for risk analysis of CCS:Application to the different life stages of deep aquifer storage, combining long-term and short-term issues. Energy Procedia, 4:4193–4198.
23. Feng, L. H., and Luo, G. Y., 2009. Analysis on fuzzy risk of landfall typhoon in Zhejiang province of China. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 79:3258–3266.
24. Ferdous, R., Khan, F., Veitch, B., and Amyotte, P. R., 2009. Methodology for computer aided fuzzy fault tree analysis. Process Safety and Environmental Protection, 87:217–226.
25. Fouladgar, M. M., Yazdani-Chamzini, A., and Zavadskas, E. K., 2011. An integrated model for prioritizing strategies of the Iranian mining sector. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 17:459–483.
26. Fouladgar, M. M., Yazdani-Chamzini, A., and Zavadskas, E. K., 2012. Risk evaluation of tunneling projects. Archives of Civil and Mechanical Engineering, 12:1–12.
27. Gowland, R., 2006. The accidental risk assessment methodology for industries (ARAMIS)/layer of protection analysis (LOPA) methodology:A step forward towards convergent practices in risk assessment?. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 130:307–310.
28. Hejazi, S. R., Doostparast, A., and Hosseini, S. M., 2011. An improved fuzzy risk analysis based on a new similarity measures of generalized fuzzy numbers. Expert Systems with Applications, 38:9179–9185.
29. Herrenknecht, E. H. M., and Bäppler, K., 2006. Mastering risks during mechanized excavation in urban centers with highly complex ground conditions. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 21:260
30. Hong, E. S., Lee, I. M., Shin, H. S., Nam, S. W., and Kong, J. S., 2009. Quantitative risk evaluation based on event tree analysis technique:Application to the design of shield TBM. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 24:269–277.
31. Hu, A. H., Hsu, Ch. W., Kuo, T. Ch., and Wu, W. Ch., 2009. Risk evaluation of green components to hazardous substance using FMEA and FAHP. Expert Systems with Applications, 36:7142–7147.
32. Hui, E. C. M., Lau, O. M. F., and Lo, K. K., 2009. A fuzzy decision-making approach for portfolio management with direct real estate investment. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 13:191–204.
33. Idrus, A., Nuruddin, M. F., and Rohman, M. A., 2011. Development of project cost contingency estimation model using risk analysis and fuzzy expert system. Expert Systems with Applications, 38:1501–1508.
34. Kahraman, C., and Kaya, I., 2010. Investment analyses using fuzzy probability concept. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16:43–57.
35. Lashgari, A., Fouladgar, M. M., Yazdani-Chamzini, A., and Skibniewski, M. J., 2011. Using an integrated model for shaft sinking method selection. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 17:569–580.
36. Lee, H. M., 1996. Group decision making using fuzzy sets theory for evaluating the rate of aggregative risk in software development. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 80:261–271.
37. Lee, L. W., and Chen, Sh. M., 2008. Fuzzy risk analysis based on fuzzy numbers with different shapes and different deviations. Expert Systems with Applications, 34:2763–2771.
38. Leeuwen, J. F., Nauta, M. J., Kaste, D., Odekerken-Rombouts, Y. M. C. F., Oldenhof, M. T., Vredenbregt, M. J., and Barends, D. M., 2009. Risk analysis by FMEA as an element of analytical validation. Journal of Pharmaceutical and Biomedical Analysis, 50:1085–1087.
39. Linder, E., Patil, G. P., and Vaughan, D. S., 1987. Application of event tree risk analysis to fisheries management. Ecological Modelling, 36:15–28.
40. Lindhe, A., Rosén, L., Norberg, T., and Bergstedt, O., 2009. Fault tree analysis for integrated and probabilistic risk analysis of drinking water systems. Water Research, 43:1641–1653.
41. Markowski, A. S., and Mannan, M. S., 2008. Fuzzy risk matrix. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 159:152–157.
42. Markowski, A. S., and Mannan, M. S., 2009. Fuzzy logic for piping risk assessment (pfLOPA). Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 22:921–927.
43. Martel, J. M., and Roy, B., 2006. Analyse de la signifiance de diverses procédures d'agrégation multicritère. INFOR, 44:119–215.
44. Meloy, A. F., 2006. Arenal-type pyroclastic flows:A probabilistic event tree risk analysis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 157:121–134.
45. Mentes, A., and Helvacioglu, I. H., 2011. An application of fuzzy fault tree analysis for spread mooring systems. Ocean Engineering, 38:285–294.
46. Merad, M.M., Verdel, T., Roy, B., and Kouniali, S., 2004. Use of multi-criteria decision-aids for risk zoning and management of large area subjected to mining-induced hazards. Tunneling and Underground Space Technology, 19:125–138.
47. Miao, X., Yu, B., Xi, B., and Tang, Y. -H., 2010. Modeling of bilevel games and incentives for sustainable critical infrastructure system. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 16:365–379.
48. Misra, K. B., and Weber, G. G., 1990. Use of fuzzy set theory for level-I studies in probabilistic risk assessment. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 37:139–160.
49. Neri, A., Aspinall, W. P., Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., and … Woo, G., 2008. Developing an event tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 178:397–415.
50. Nieto-Morote, A., and Ruz-Vila, F., 2011. A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment. International Journal of Project Management, 29:220–231.
51. Papadopoulos, A., and Karagiannidis, A., 2008. Application of the multicriteria analysis method Electre III for the optimisation of decentralised energy systems. Omega, 36:766–776.
52. Reilly, J., and Brown, J., 2004. “Management and control of cost and risk for tunneling and infrastructure projects”. In Proceedings of the World Tunneling Conference, International Tunneling Association, May 2004, Singapore 1–8. Singapore:ITA.
53. Rezaie, K., Amalnik, M. S., Gereie, A., Ostadi, B., and Shakhseniaee, M., 2007. Using extended Monte Carlo simulation method for the improvement of risk management:Consideration of relationships between uncertainties. Applied Mathematics and Computation, 190:1492–1501.
54. Rodak, C., and Silliman, S., 2012. Probabilistic risk analysis and fault trees:Initial discussion of application to identification of risk at a wellhead. Advances in Water Resources, 36:133–145.
55. Roy, B., 1968. Classement et choix en présence de points de vue multiples (la méthod ELECTRE). R.I.R.O, 8:57–75.
56. Roy, B., 1978. ELECTRE III:Algorithme de classement basé sur une représentation floue des préférences en présence des critères multiples. Cahiers du CERO, 20:3–24.
57. eme Conference Internationale de Recherche Operationelle (OR’72), Edited by:Ross, M., 291–302. Amsterdam:North–Holland.
58. Roy, B., and Hugonnard, J. C., 1982. Ranking of suburban line extension projects on the Paris metro system by a multicriteria method. Transportation Research Part A:General, 16:301–312.
59. o 30, Université de Paris–Dauphine
60. Roy, B., and Vanderpooten, D., 1997. An overview on ‘The European school of MCDA:Emergence, basic features and current works’. European Journal of Operational Research, 99:26–27.
61. Saaty, T. L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, New York:McGraw-Hill.
62. Sawadogo, M., and Anciaux, D., 2009. “Intermodal transportation within the green supply chain:An approach based on the ELECTRE method”. In Proceedings of the IEEE. International Conference on Computers & Industrial Engineering (CIE 2009), 6–9 July 2009, University of Technology of Troyes, France 839–844. France:IEEE.
63. Schuhmacher, M., Meneses, M., Xifró, A., and Domingo, J. L., 2001. The use of Monte Carlo simulation techniques for risk assessment:Study of a municipal waste incinerator. Chemosphere, 43:787–799.
64. Shahriar, K., Sharifzadeh, M., and Hamidi, J. K., 2008. Geotechnical risk assessment based approach for rock TBM selection in difficult ground conditions. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 23(3):318–325.
65. Smid, J. H., Verloo, D., Barker, G. C., and Havelaar, A. H., 2010. Strengths and weaknesses of Monte Carlo simulation models and Bayesian belief networks in microbial risk assessment. International Journal of Food Microbiology, 139:S57–S63.
66. Stroeve, S. H., Blom, H. A. P., and Bakker, G. J., 2009. Systemic accident risk assessment in air traffic by Monte Carlo simulation. Safety Science, 47:238–249.
67. Turskis, Z., Zavadskas, E. K., and Peldschus, F., 2009. Multi-criteria optimization system for decision making in construction design and management. Inžinerinė Ekonomika–Engineering Economics, 1:7–17.
68. Ustinovichius, L., Barvidas, A., Vishnevskaja, A., and Ashikhminc, I. V., 2009. Multicriteria verbal analysis for the decision of construction problems. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 15:326–340.
69. Vahdani, B., and Hadipour, H., 2011. Extension of the ELECTRE method based on interval-valued fuzzy sets. Soft Computing, 15(3):569–579.
70. Vaidogas, E. R., and Sakenaite, J., 2010. Protecting built property against fire disasters:Multi attribute decision making with respect to fire risk. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 14:391–407.
71. Vaurio, J. K., 2010. Ideas and developments in importance measures and fault-tree techniques for reliability and risk analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 95:99–107.
72. Vílchez, J. A., Espejo, V., and Casal, J., 2011. Generic event trees and probabilities for the release of different types of hazardous materials. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 24:281–287.
73. Wang, Y. M., Chin, K. S., Poon, G. K. K., and Yang, J. B., 2009. Risk evaluation in failure mode and effects analysis using fuzzy weighted geometric mean. Expert Systems with Applications, 36:1195–1207.
74. Wei, Sh. H., and Chen, Sh. M., 2009a. A new approach for fuzzy risk analysis based on similarity measures of generalized fuzzy numbers. Expert Systems with Applications, 36:589–598.
75. Wei, Sh. H., and Chen, Sh. M., 2009b. Fuzzy risk analysis based on interval-valued fuzzy numbers. Expert Systems with Applications, 36:2285–2299.
76. Wu, Y. F., 2008. Correlated sampling techniques used in Monte Carlo simulation for risk assessment. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 85:662–669.
77. Xiao, N., Huang, H. Z., Li, Y., He, L., and Jin, T., 2011. Multiple failure modes analysis and weighted risk priority number evaluation in FMEA. Engineering Failure Analysis, 18:1162–1170.
78. Xu, Zh., Shang, Sh., Qian, W., and Shu, W., 2010. A method for fuzzy risk analysis based on the new similarity of trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Expert Systems with Applications, 37:1920–1927.
79. Yazadni-Chamzini, A., 2012.
80. Yazdani-Chamzini, A., and Yakhchali, S. H., 2012. Tunnel Boring Machine (TBM) selection using fuzzy multicriteria decision making methods. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 30:194–204.
81. Yoo, Ch., and Kim, J. H., 2003. A web-based tunneling-induced building/utility damage assessment system:TURISK. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 18:497–511.
82. Yoo, C., Jeon, Y.W., and Choi, B.S., 2006. IT-based tunnelling risk management system (IT-TURISK)–Development and implementation. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 21(2):190–202.
83. Yoon, K. P., and Hwang, C. L., 1995. Multiple Attribute Decision Making:An Introduction, London:Sage.
84. o 74, Université de Paris–Dauphine
85. Zadeh, L. A., 1965. Fuzzy sets. Information and Control, 8:338–353.
86. Zavadskas, E. K., Turskis, Z., and Tamosaitiene, J., 2010. Risk assessment of construction projects. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 16:33–46.
87. Zavadskas, E. K., Vilutiene, T., Turskis, Z., and Tamosaitiene, J., 2010. Contractor selection for construction works by applying SAW-G and TOPSIS grey techniques. Journal of Business Economics and Management, 11:34–55.
88. Zhang, Z., and Chu, X., 2011. Risk prioritization in failure mode and effects analysis under uncertainty. Expert Systems with Applications, 38:206–214.