Accurate emergency department wait time prediction

Manufacturing and Service Operations Management

Volumn 18, Issue 1, 2016, Pages 141-156

  Ang, Erjie ^a   Kwasnick, Sara ^a   Bayati, Mohsen ^a   Plambeck, Erica L ^a   Aratow, Michael ^b  

^a STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b San Mateo County Medical Center   (United States)

Author keywords

Empirical research; Healthcare management; OM practice; Service operations

Indexed keywords

EMERGENCY ROOMS; FORECASTING; MEDICINE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

EMERGENCY DEPARTMENTS; EMPIRICAL RESEARCH; HEALTH-CARE MANAGEMENTS; MEAN SQUARED PREDICTION ERRORS; OM PRACTICES; SERVICE OPERATIONS; SERVICE OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT; STATISTICAL LEARNING;

HOSPITALS;

EID: 84956863398     PISSN: 15234614     EISSN: 15265498     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1287/msom.2015.0560     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. ACEP (2012) Publishing wait times for emergency department care: An information paper. American College of Emergency Physicians, Baltimore.
2. Allon G, Bassamboo A, Gurvich I (2011) We will be right with you: Managing customer expectations with vague promises and cheap talk. Oper. Res. 59(6):1382-1394.
3. Armony M, Maglaras C (2004) Contact centers with a call-back option and real-time delay information. Oper. Res. 52(4): 527-545.
4. Armony M, Shimkin N, Whitt W (2009) Impact of delay announcements in many-server queues with abandonment. Oper. Res. 57(1):66-81.
5. Armony M, Israelit S, Mandelbaum A, Marmor YN, Tseytlin Y, Yom-Tov GB (2015) On patient flow in hospitals: A data-based queueing-science perspective. Stochastic Systems 5:1-49.
6. Balakrishna P, Ganesan R, Sherry L, Levy BS (2014) Estimating taxiout times with a reinforcement learning algorithm. IEEE/AIAA 27th 3.D.3-1-3.D.3-12.
7. Batt RJ, Terwiesch C (2015) Waiting patiently: An empirical study of queue abandonment in an emergency department. Management Sci. 61(1):39-59.
8. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C (2014) Inference on treatment effects after selection among high-dimensional controls. Rev. Econom. Stud. 81(2):608-650.
9. Bertsimas D, O'Hair A, Relyea S, Silberholz J (2013) An analytics approach to designing clinical trials for cancer. Working paper, Sloan School and Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge.
10. Boudreaux ED, Ary RD, Mandry CV, McCabe B (2000) Determinants of patient satisfaction in a large, municipal ed: The role of demographic variables, visit characteristics, and patient perceptions. Amer. J. Emergency Medicine 18(4):394-400.
11. Deo S, Gurvich I (2011) Centralized vs. decentralized ambulance diversion: A network perspective. Management Sci. 57(7): 1300-1319.
12. Ding R, McCarthy ML, Desmond JS, Lee JS, Aronsky D, Zeger SL (2010) Characterizing waiting room time, treatment time, and boarding time in the emergency department using quantile regression. Acad. Emergency Medicine 17(8):813-823.
13. Domingos P (2012) A few useful things to know about machine learning. Comm. ACM 55(10):78-87.
14. Dong J, Yom-Tov E, Yom-Tov GB (2015) The impact of delay announcements on hospital network coordination and waiting times. Working paper, McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.
15. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J (2009) The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data Mining, Inference and Prediction (Springer, New York).
16. Ibrahim R, Whitt W (2009a) Real-time delay estimation based on delay history. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 11(3): 397-415.
17. Ibrahim R, Whitt W (2009b) Real-time delay estimation in overloaded multiserver queues with abandonments. Management Sci. 55(10):1729-1742.
18. Ibrahim R, Whitt W (2011a) Wait-time predictors for customer service systems with time-varying demand and capacity. Oper. Res. 59(5):1106-1118.
19. Ibrahim R, Whitt W (2011b) Real-time delay estimation based on delay history in many-server service systems with timevarying arrivals. Production Oper. Management 20(5):654-667.
20. Ibrahim R, Armony M, Bassamboo A (2014) Does the past predict the future? The case of delay announcements in service systems. Working paper, School of Management, University College London, London, UK.
21. Jaeker JA, Tucker AL (2012) Hurry up and wait: Differential impacts of congestion, bottleneck pressure, and predictability on patient length of stay. Working paper, Harvard Business School, Boston.
22. Javanmard A, Montanari A (2014) Confidence intervals and hypothesis testing for high-dimensional regression. J. Machine Learn. 15(1):2869-2909.
23. Jouini O, Akşin Z, Dallery Y (2011) Call centers with delay information: Models and insights. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 13(4):534-548.
24. Lu Y, Musalem A, Olivares M, Schilkrut A (2013) Measuring the effect of queues on customer purchases. Management Sci. 59(8): 1743-1763.
25. Mandelbaum A, Zeltyn S (2009) Staffing many-server queues with impatient customers: Constraint satisfaction in call centers. Oper. Res. 57(5):1189-1205.
26. Plambeck E, Wang Q (2012) Implications of hyperbolic discounting for optimal pricing and scheduling of unpleasant services that generate future benefits. Management Sci. 59(8):1927-1946.
27. Rudin C, Vahn G (2014) The big data newsvendor: Practical insights from machine learning analysis. Working paper, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge.
28. Saghafian S, Hopp WJ, Van Oyen MP, Desmond JS, Kronick SL (2014) Complexity-augmented triage: A tool for improving patient safety and operational efficiency. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management 16(3):329-345.
29. Senderovich A, Weidlich M, Gal A, Mandelbaum A (2014) Queue mining-predicting delays in service processes. Advanced Information Systems Engineering (Springer, Gewerbestrasse, CH).
30. Shen S (2014) Personal conversation between the authors and Sam Shen, medical director at the Stanford School of Medicine, Division of Emergency Medicine, June 9, 2014.
31. Shi P, Chou MC, Dai JG, Ding D, Sim J (2016) Models and insights for hospital inpatient operations: Time-dependent ED boarding time. Management Sci. 62(1):1-28.
32. Shunko M, Niederhoff J, Rosokha Y (2014) Humans are not machines: Impact of queueing design on service time. Working paper, Krannert School of Management, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN.
33. Simaiakis I, Balakrishnan H (2015) A queuing model of the airport departure process. Transportation Sci., ePub ahead of print November 9, http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/trsc.2015.0603.
34. Sun Y, Teow KL, Ooi CK, Heng BH, Tay SY (2012) Real-time prediction of waiting time in the emergency department, using quantile regression. Ann. Emergency Medicine 60(3):299-308.
35. Xu K, Chan CW (2014) Using future information to reduce waiting times in the emergency department. Manufacturing Service Oper. Management. Forthcoming.
36. Yu Q, Allon G, Bassamboo A (2015) How do delay announcements shape customer behavior? An empirical study. Management Sci. Forthcoming.