Representing power sector variability and the integration of variable renewables in long-term energy-economy models using residual load duration curves

Energy

Volumn 90, Issue , 2015, Pages 1799-1814

  Ueckerdt, Falko ^a   Brecha, Robert ^a,b   Luderer, Gunnar ^a   Sullivan, Patrick ^c   Schmid, Eva ^a   Bauer, Nico ^a   Böttger, Diana ^d   Pietzcker, Robert ^a  

^a POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON   (United States)

^c NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF LEIPZIG   (Germany)

Author keywords

Climate change mitigation; Energy economics; Energy modeling; Energy planning; Integration; Variable renewables

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; ECONOMICS; INTEGRATION;

CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION; ENERGY ECONOMICS; ENERGY MODEL; ENERGY PLANNING; RENEWABLES;

INVESTMENTS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPLEXITY; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; ENERGY PLANNING; IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS; MITIGATION; OPTIMIZATION; TEMPORAL VARIATION;

GERMANY;

EID: 84954398089     PISSN: 03605442     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.07.006     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. IPCC. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2013. www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/.
2. Lenton TM, Held H, Kriegler E, Hall JW, Lucht W, Rahmstorf S, et al. Tipping elements in the earth's climate system. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2008;105(6): 1786-93.
3. Bank World. Turn down the heat e why a 4°C warmer world must be avoided. 2012.
4. UNFCCC. National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period 1990-2011. UNFCCC; 2013.
5. 2 emissions from fuel combustion highlights 2013. OECD/IEA; 2013.
6. Luderer G, Bosetti V, Jakob M, Leimbach M, Steckel JC, Waisman H, et al. The economics of decarbonizing the energy systemdresults and insights from the RECIPE model intercomparison. Clim Change Sep. 2012;114(1):9-37.
7. Luderer G, Pietzcker RC, Kriegler E, Haller M, Bauer N. Asia's role in mitigating climate change: a technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R. Energy Econ Dec. 2012;34(Suppl. 3):S378-90.
8. Kriegler E, Weyant JP, Blanford GJ, Krey V, Clarke L, Edmonds J, et al. The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies. Clim Change 2014: 1-15.
9. Krey V, Luderer G, Clarke L, Kriegler E. "Getting from here to there e energy technology transformation pathways in the EMF27 scenarios. Clim Change Apr. 2014;123(3-4):369-82.
10. Edenhofer O, Knopf B, Barker T, Baumstark L, Bellevrat E, Chateau B, et al. The economics of low stabilization: model comparison of mitigation strategies and costs. Energy J 2010;31(1):11-48.
11. IPCC. Special report on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.: Cambridge University Press; 2011. http://srren.ipcc-wg3.de/.
12. Krey V, Clarke L. Role of renewable energy in climate mitigation: a synthesis of recent scenarios. Clim Policy 2011;11(4):1131-58.
13. GEA. Global energy assessment e toward a sustainable future. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; 2012.
14. Luderer G, Krey V, Calvin K, Merrick J, Mima S, Pietzcker R, et al. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios. Clim Change Apr. 2014;123(no. 3-4):427-41.
15. Edenhofer O, Seyboth K, Creutzig F, Schlömer S. On the sustainability of renewable energy sources. Annu Rev Environ Resour 2013;38(1):169-200.
16. Bessiére F. The "Investment '85" model of electricite de France. 01-Dec-1970 [Online]. Available: http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.17.4. B192 [accessed 20.02.14].
17. Stoughton N, Chen R, Lee S. Direct construction of optimal generation mix. IEEE Trans Power Appar Syst Mar. 1980;PAS-99(2):753-9.
18. Grubb MJ. Value of variable sources on power systems. In: Generation, Transmission and Distribution, IEE Proceedings C, vol. 138; 1991. p. 149-65.
19. Stoft S. Power system economics: designing markets for electricity. Chichester: Wiley-Academy; 2002.
20. Hirth L, Ueckerdt F. Redistribution effects of energy and climate policy: the electricity market. Energy Policy Nov. 2013;62:934-47.
21. Ueckerdt F, Hirth L, Luderer G, Edenhofer O. System LCOE: what are the costs of variable renewables? Energy Dec. 2013;63:61-75.
22. Hirth L, Ueckerdt F, Edenhofer O. Integration costs revisited e an economic framework for wind and solar variability. Renewable Energy February 2015;74:925-39.
23. Lamont AD. Assessing the long-term system value of intermittent electric generation technologies. Energy Econ May 2008;30(3):1208-31.
24. Borenstein S. The market value and cost of solar photovoltaic electricity production. In: Cent. Study Energy Mark. CSEM Work. Pap. Ser., vol. CSEM WP 176; 2008.
25. Mills A, Wiser R. Changes in the economic value of variable generation at high penetration levels: a pilot case study of California. LBNL-5445E. 2012.
26. Hirth L. The market value of variable renewables: the effect of solar wind power variability on their relative price. Energy Econ Jul. 2013;38:218-36.
27. Hirth L. The optimal share of variable renewables: how the variability of wind and solar power affects their welfare-optimal deployment. Energy J Jan. 2015;36(1).
28. Hirth L, Ueckerdt F, Edenhofer O. Why wind is not coal: on the economics of electricity. Energy J, 2016 (forthcoming).
29. Sullivan P, Krey V, Riahi K. Impacts of considering electric sector variability and reliability in the MESSAGE model. Energy Strategy Rev Mar. 2013;1(3): 157-63.
30. Baker E, Fowlie M, Lemoine D, Reynolds SS. The economics of solar electricity. Annu Rev Resour Econ Jun. 2013;5(1):387-426.
31. IPCC. Summary for policymakers. In: Edenhofer O, Pichs-Madruga R, Sokona Y, Seyboth K, Matschoss P, Kadner S, et al., editors. IPCC special report on renewable energy sources and climate change mitigation. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press; 2011.
32. Pietzcker RC, Stetter D, Manger S, Luderer G. Using the sun to decarbonize the power sector: the economic potential of photovoltaics and concentrating solar power. Appl Energy Dec. 2014;135:704-20.
33. Ueckerdt F, Brecha R, Luderer G. Analyzing major challenges of wind and solar variability in power systems. Renew Energy Sep. 2015;81:1-10.
34. Loulou R, Labriet M. ETSAP-TIAM: the TIMES integrated assessment model Part I: model structure. Comput Manag Sci Feb. 2008;5(1-2):7-40.
35. Haller M, Ludig S, Bauer N. Decarbonization scenarios for the EU and MENA power system: considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation. Energy Policy 2012;47(C):282-90.
36. Ludig S, Haller M, Schmid E, Bauer N. Fluctuating renewables in a long-term climate change mitigation strategy. Energy Nov. 2011;36(11):6674-85.
37. Short W, Blair N, Sullivan P, Mai T. ReEDS model documentation: base case data and model description. 2009.
38. Short W, Sullivan P, Mai T, Mowers M, Uriarte C, Blair N, et al. Regional energy deployment system (ReEDS). TP-6A20-46534. 2011.
39. Nicolosi M, Mills AD, Wiser R. The importance of high temporal resolution in modeling renewable energy penetration scenarios. 2010.
40. Kannan R, Turton H. A long-term electricity dispatch model with the times framework. Environ Model Assess Oct. 2012;18(3):325-43.
41. Schmid E, Knopf B, Bauer N. REMIND-D: a hybrid energy-economy model of Germany. FEEM Work. Pap. Ser. 2012.
42. Schmid E, Knopf B. Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: a participatory approach. Energy Policy 2012;51:662-72.
43. Ocaña C. Competition in electricity markets. International Energy Agency and Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development; 2001.
44. IEA. IDR_Germany_WEB_GER.pdf. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2013.
45. IEA. Energy security: challenges in electricity e a focus on Europe. 2012.
46. Ela E, Gevorgian V, Fleming P, Zhang YC, Singh M, Muljadi E, et al. Active power controls from wind power: bridging the gaps. NREL; 2014. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy14osti/60574.pdf. Technical Report NREL/TP-5D00-60574.
47. Denholm P, Margolis RM. Evaluating the limits of solar photovoltaics (PV) in traditional electric power systems. Energy Policy May 2007;35(5):2852-61.
48. Denholm P, Hand M. Grid flexibility and storage required to achieve very high penetration of variable renewable electricity. Energy Policy Mar. 2011;39(3): 1817-30.
49. Nikolakakis T, Fthenakis V. The optimum mix of electricity from wind-and solar-sources in conventional power systems: evaluating the case for New York State. Energy Policy Nov. 2011;39(11):6972-80.
50. FGH, IAEW, and Consentec. Studie zur Ermittlung der technischen Mindesterzeugung des konventionellen Kraftwerksparks zur Gewährleistung der Systemstabilität in den deutschen übertragungsnetzen bei hoher Einspeisung aus erneuerbaren Energien. Mannheim; 2012.
51. Energy Brainpool. Negative Strompreise: Ursachen und Wirkungen. 2014.
52. Hirth L. Minimal thermal generation in power systems e inferring private cost parameters from observed firm behavior. USAEE Work. Pap. No 15-203; 2015.
53. Deane JP, Chiodi A, Gargiulo M, Ó Gallachóir BP. Soft-linking of a power systems model to an energy systems model. Energy Jun. 2012;42(1):303-12.
54. NREL. Renewable electricity futures study. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory; 2012.
55. Chaudry M, Ekins P, Ramachandran K, Shakoor A, Skea J, Strbac G, et al. Building a resilient UK energy system. 2011.
56. Holttinen H, Meibom P, Orths A, Lange B, O'Malley M, Tande JO, et al. Impacts of large amounts of wind power on design and operation of power systems, results of IEA collaboration. Wind Energy 2011;14(2):179-92.
57. IEA. The power of transformation e wind, sun and the economics of flexible power systems. Paris: IEA/OECD; 2014.
58. Hirth L, Ueckerdt F, Edenhofer O. Integration costs revisited e an economic framework for wind and solar variability. Renew Energy Feb. 2015;74: 925-39.
59. Bauer N, Baumstark L, Haller M, Leimbach M, Luderer G, Lueken M, et al. REMIND: the equations. Potsdam Inst Clim Impact Res 2011. PIK Online Available: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/research-domains/sustainable-solutions/esm-group/remind-equations.pdf. Retrieved.
60. Leimbach M, Bauer N, Baumstark L, Luken M, Edenhofer O. Technological change and international trade e insights from REMIND-R. Energy J 2010;31(Special Issue):109-36.
61. Schmid E, Pahle M, Knopf B. Renewable electricity generation in Germany: a meta-analysis of mitigation scenarios. Energy Policy Oct. 2013;61:1151-63.
62. 2-Abscheidung europaweit vor dem Aus. DIW Wochenbericht; 2012.