Health effects of technologies for power generation: Contributions from normal operation, severe accidents and terrorist threat

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Volumn 145, Issue , 2016, Pages 373-387

  Hirschberg, Stefan ^a   Bauer, Christian ^a   Burgherr, Peter ^a   Cazzoli, Eric ^b   Heck, Thomas ^a   Spada, Matteo ^a   Treyer, Karin ^a  

^a PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUTE   (Switzerland)

^b Cazzoli Consulting   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Comparative risk assessment; Health effects; Normal operation; Power generation; Severe accidents; Terrorist threat

Indexed keywords

HEALTH; HEALTH RISKS; POWER GENERATION; RISK ASSESSMENT;

COMPARATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTS; HEALTH EFFECTS; NORMAL OPERATIONS; SEVERE ACCIDENT; TERRORIST THREATS;

TERRORISM;

EID: 84946771486     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.09.013     Document Type: Article

References (114)

1. P. Bickel, Friedrich Re, B. Droste-Franke, T.M. Bachmann, A. Greßmann, A. Rabl, and et al. ExternE-externalities of energy-methodology 2005 update 2005 European Commission Brussels, Belgium
2. A. Markandya, and P. Wilkinson Electricity generation and health Lancet 370 2007 979 990
3. R. Frischknecht, S. Büsser, and W. Krewitt Environmental assessment of future technologies: how to trim LCA to fit this goal? Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 14 2009 584 588
4. NRC Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use. Committee on Health, Environmental, and Other External Costs and Benefits of Energy Production and Consumption; National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academies; 2010.
5. S. Hirschberg Externalities in the global energy system F.L. Toth, Energy for development: resources, technologies, environment, environment & policy 2012 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht, The Netherlands 121 138
6. F. Caiazzo, A. Ashok, I.A. Waitz, S.H.L. Yim, and Barrett SRH Air pollution and early deaths in the United States. Part I: Quantifying the impact of major sectors in 2005 Atmos. Environ. 79 2013 198 208
7. I.C. Dedoussi, and S.R.H Barrett Air pollution and early deaths in the United States. Part II: Attribution of PM2.5 exposure to emissions species, time, location and sector Atmos. Environ. 99 2014 610 617
8. ISO Environmental management - life cycle assessment - principles and framework 2006 International Organisation for Standardisation (ISO) ISO 14040, Geneva, Switzerland
9. R. Frischknecht, H.-J. Althaus, C. Bauer, G. Doka, T. Heck, N. Jungbluth, and et al. The environmental relevance of capital goods in life cycle assessments of products and services Int. J. LCA 12 Special Issue 2007 7 17
10. J.I. Levy, L.K. Baxter, and J. Schwartz Uncertainty and variability in health-related damages from coal-fired power plants in the United States Risk Anal.: Off. Publ. Soc. Risk Anal. 29 2009 1000 1014
11. E. Masanet, Y. Chang, A.R. Gopal, P. Larsen, W.R. Morrow, R. Sathre, and et al. Life-cycle assessment of electric power systems Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 38 2013 107 136
12. R. Turconi, A. Boldrin, and T. Astrup Life cycle assessment (LCA) of electricity generation technologies: overview, comparability and limitations Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 28 2013 555 565
13. K. Treyer, and C. Bauer Life cycle inventories of electricity generation and power supply in version 3 of the ecoinvent database - part I: electricity generation Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 2013 1 19
14. E.A. Bouman, A. Ramirez, and E.G. Hertwich Multiregional environmental comparison of fossil fuel power generation - assessment of the contribution of fugitive emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil resources Int. J. Greenh. Gas. Control. 33 2015 1 9
15. S. Hirschberg, G. Spiekerman, and R. Dones Severe accidents in the energy sector-first edition 1998 Paul Scherrer Institut Villigen PSI, Switzerland Report No. 98-16
16. Hirschberg S, Bauer C, Burgherr P, Cazzoli E, Dones R, Heck T, et al. Treatment of risks in sustainability assessment of energy systems. in: Proceedings of the 9th probabilistic safety assessment & management conference (PSAM). Hong Kong, China 2008.
17. P. Burgherr, S. Hirschberg, and M. Spada Comparative assessment of accident risks in the energy sector R.M. Kovacevic, G.C. Pflug, M.T. Vespucci, Handbook of risk management in energy production and trading 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York (USA) 475 501
18. P. Burgherr, and S. Hirschberg Comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector Energy Policy 74 Supplement 1 2014 S45 S56
19. M. Greenberg, C. Haas, J. Cox, Anthony, K. Lowrie, K. McComas, and W. North Ten most important accomplishments in risk analysis, 1980-2010 Risk Anal. 32 2012 771 781
20. A. Hopkins Risk-management and rule-compliance: decision-making in hazardous industries Saf. Sci. 49 2011 110 120
21. Y.Y. Haimes On the complex definition of risk: a systems-based approach. Risk analysis: an official publication of the Society for Risk Anal. 29 2009 1647 1654
22. T. Aven The risk concept - historical and recent development trends Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 99 2012 33 44
23. P. Slovic The risk game Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 59 1998 73 77
24. A. Stirling Risk at a turning point? J. Environ. Med. 1 1999 119 126
25. M. Viklund Energy policy options - from the perspective of public attitudes and risk perceptions Energy Policy 32 2004 1159 1171
26. Perlaviciute G, Steg L The influence of values on evaluations of energy alternatives. Renewable Energy.2015;77:259-267.
27. S.O. Funtowicz, and J.R. Ravetz Three types of risk assessment C. Whipple, V.T. Covello, Risk analysis in the private sector 1985 Plenum Press New York (USA)
28. S.O. Funtowicz, and J.R. Ravetz The worth of a songbird: ecological economics as a postnormal science Ecol. Econ. 10 1994 197 207
29. T. Aven On Funtowicz and Ravetz's "decision stake-system uncertainties" structure and recently developed risk perspectives Risk Anal. 33 2013 270 280
30. H. Pasman, and W. Rogers The bumpy road to better risk control: a Tour d'Horizon of new concepts and ideas J. Loss Prev. Process. Ind. 2015 In Press, Corrected Proof
31. O. Renn Concepts of risk: an interdisciplinary review. Part 1: disciplinary risk concepts GAIA 17 2008 50 66
32. I.L. Johansen, and M. Rausand Foundations and choice of risk metrics Saf. Sci. 62 2014 386 399
33. F.A. Felder A critical assessment of energy accident studies Energy Policy 37 2009 5744 5751
34. B.K. Sovacool The costs of failure: a preliminary assessment of major energy accidents, 1907-2007 Energy Policy 36 2008 1802 1820
35. S.H. Schneider Comparative risk assessment of energy systems Energy 4 1979 919 931
36. L. Hong, and F. Dong Comparative health risk assessment of coal power and nuclear power in China Prog. Nucl. Energy 37 2000 31 35
37. S.M. Rashad, and F.H. Hammad Nuclear power and the environment: comparative assessment of environmental and health impacts of electricity-generating systems Appl. Energy 65 2000 211 229
38. R. Ramanathan Comparative risk assessment of energy supply technologies: a data envelopment analysis approach Energy 26 2001 197 203
39. A. Colli, D. Serbanescu, and Ale BJM Indicators to compare risk expressions, grouping, and relative ranking of risk for energy systems: application with some accidental events from fossil fuels Saf. Sci. 47 2009 591 607
40. R. Mullen The energy incident data base A. Gheorghe, L. Muresan, Energy security 2011 Springer Netherlands 333 336
41. European Commission ExternE-externalities of energy - Volume 2: methodology 1995 European Commission Brussels, Belgium
42. M. Holland, J. Berry, P. Forster De, Watkiss, R. Boyd, D. Lee, and et al. ExternE-externalities of energy M. Holland, J. Berry, D. Forster, Methodology 1998 update 7 1999 European Commission Brussels, Belgium
43. NEEDS: New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability. 2009.
44. S. Hirschberg, T. Heck, U. Gantner, Y. Lu, J.V. Spadaro, W. Krewitt, and et al. Environmental impact and external cost assessment. Integrated assessment of sustainable energy systems in China - The China energy technology program 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht/Boston/London 445 586
45. T. Heck, and S. Hirschberg China: economic impacts of air pollution in the country J.O. Nriagu, Encyclopedia of environmental health 2011 Elsevier Burlington, VT, USA 625 640
46. ORNL, and RfF Estimating fuel cycle externalities: analytical methods and issues 1994 Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Resources for the Future Washington DC, USA Report No. 2
47. Heck T, Krewitt W, Malthan D, Mayerhofer P, Pattermann F, Trukenmüller A, et al. EcoSense 2.0, User's Manual. Stuttgart, IER, University of Stuttgart. Stuttgart, Germany1999.
48. European Commission ExternE-externalities of energy: national implementation 10 1999 European Commission Brussels, Belgium ISBN 92-828-3723-8
49. W. Krewitt, T. Heck, A. Trukenmüller, and R. Friedrich Environmental damage costs from fossil electricity generation in Germany and Europe Energy Policy 27 1999 173 183
50. G. Klaassen, and K. Riahi Internalizing externalities of electricity generation: an analysis with MESSAGE-MACRO Energy Policy 35 2007 815 827
51. J.M. Gohlke, R. Thomas, A. Woodward, D. Campbell-Lendrum, A. Pruss-Ustun, S. Hales, and et al. Estimating the global public health implications of electricity and coal consumption Environ. Heal. Perspect. 119 2011 821 826
52. W. Krewitt, A. Trukenmüller, T. Bachmann, and T. Heck Country-specific damage factors for air pollutants Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 6 2001 199 210
53. A. Rabl, and J.V. Spadaro Environmental damages and costs: an analysis of uncertainties Environ. Int. 25 1999 29 46
54. ecoinvent. the ecoinvent LCA database, v2.2. The ecoinvent center; 2013.
55. W. Krewitt, M. Holland, A. Trukenmüller, T. Heck, and R. Friedrich Comparing costs and environmental benefits of strategies to combat acidification and ozone in Europe Environ. Econ. Policy Stud. 2 1999 249 266
56. Droste-Franke B, Heck T, Karnahl J, Krewitt W, Malthan D, Mayerhofer P, et al. EcoSense 4.0, User's Manual. Stuttgart, IER, University of Stuttgart. Stuttgart, Germany2004.
57. A. Trukenmüller, and R. Friedrich Die Abbildung der großräumigen Verteilung, chemischenUmwandlung und Deposition von Luftschadstoffen mit dem Trajektorienmodell WTM 1995 ALS Universität Stuttgart Stuttgart, Germany 93 108 Jahresbericht 1995
58. R.G. Derwent, and K. Nodof Long-range transport and deposition of acidic nitrogen species in North-West Europe Nature 324 1986 356 358
59. S. Roth, S. Hirschberg, C. Bauer, P. Burgherr, R. Dones, T. Heck, and et al. Sustainability of electricity supply technology portfolio Ann. Nucl. Energy 36 2009 409 416
60. T. Ekvall, and B. Weidema System boundaries and input data in consequential life cycle inventory analysis Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 9 2004 161 171
61. A. Zamagni, J. Guinée, R. Heijungs, P. Masoni, and A. Raggi Lights and shadows in consequential LCA Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 17 2012 904 918
62. J.M. Earles, and A. Halog Consequential life cycle assessment: a review Int. J. Life Cycle Assess. 16 2011 445 453
63. A. Simons, and C. Bauer Life cycle assessment of the European pressurized reactor and the influence of different fuel cycle strategies Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. Part. A: J. Power Energy 226 2012 427 444
64. K. Volkart, C. Bauer, and C. Boulet Life cycle assessment of carbon capture and storage in power generation and industry in Europe Int. J. Greenh. Gas. Control. 16 2013 91 106
65. K. Treyer, C. Bauer, and A. Simons Human health impacts in the life cycle of future European electricity generation Energy Policy 74 2014 S31 S44
66. A.M. De Schryver, R. van Zelm, S. Humbert, S. Pfister, T.E. McKone, and M.A.J. Huijbregts Value choices in life cycle impact assessment of stressors causing human health damage J. Ind. Ecol. 15 2011 796 815
67. Goedkoop M, Heijungs R, Huijbregts M, De Schryver A, Struijs J, van Zelm R. ReCiPe 2008-A life cycle impact assessment method which comprises harmonised category indicators at the midpoint and the endpoint level. Report I: Characterisation. The Hague, Netherlands 2009.
68. C. Mutel, S. Pfister, and S. Hellweg GIS-based regionalized Life Cycle Assessment: how big is small enough? Methodology and case study of electricity generation Environ. Sci. Technol. 46 2012 1096 1103
69. C. Mutel, L. de Baan, and S. Hellweg Two-step sensitivity testing of parametrized and regionalized Life Cycle Assessments: methodology and case study Environ. Sci. Technol. 47 2013 5660 5667
70. Bulle C, Margni M, Jolliet O, Rosenbaum R, Humbert S. IMPACT World+: A new global regionalized life cycle impact assessment method. 2015.
71. NRC. Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants [NUREG-75/014 (WASH-1400)].Washington, D.C. (USA): Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC); 1975.
72. N.C. Rasmussen The application of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to energy technologies Annu. Rev. Energy 6 1981 123 138
73. A.F. Fritzsche The health risks of energy production Risk Anal. 9 1989 565 577
74. A.F. Fritzsche Editorial-Severe accidents: can they occur only in the nuclear production of electricity? Risk Anal. 12 1992 327 329
75. H. Inhaber Risk analysis applied to energy systems C.J. Cleveland, Encyclopedia of energy 5 2004 Elsevier Amsterdam, The Netherlands 469 482
76. S. Hirschberg, P. Burgherr, G. Spiekerman, E. Cazzoli, J. Vitazek, and L. Cheng Assessment of severe accident risks B. Eliasson, Y.Y. Lee, Integrated assessment of sustainable energy systems in China The China Energy Technology Program - A framework for decision support in the electric sector of Shandong province Alliance for Global Sustainability Series 4 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers Amsterdam, The Netherlands 587 660
77. P. Burgherr, and S. Hirschberg Assessment of severe accident risks in the Chinese coal chain Int. J. Risk Assess. Manag. 7 2007 1157 1175
78. P. Burgherr, and S. Hirschberg Comparative assessment of natural gas accident risks 2005 Switzerland Paul Scherrer Institut PSI Report No. 05-01. Villigen PSI
79. Burgherr P, Eckle P, Michaux E Oil tanker transportation risk: driving factors and consequence assessment. in: Proceedings of the 11th international probabilistic safety assessment and management conference & European safety and reliability conference 2012 (PSAM11 & ESREL2012). Helsinki (Finland), 2012.
80. P. Burgherr, S. Hirschberg, A. Hunt, and R.A. Ortiz Severe accidents in the energy sector R. Friedrich, New elements for the assessment of external costs from energy technologies (NewExt) 2004 DG Research, Technological Development and Demonstration (RTD) Brussels, Belgium Final Report to the European Commission of the EU 5th Framework Programme
81. P. Burgherr, and S. Hirschberg Severe accident risks in fossil energy chains: a comparative analysis Energy 33 2008 538 553
82. o D7.1-Research Stream 2b. NEEDS project "New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability". Brussels, Belgium2008.
83. Burgherr P, Eckle P, Hirschberg S, Cazzoli E. Final Report on Severe Accident Risks including Key Indicators. SECURE Deliverable No. D5.7.2a. Brussels, Belgium: SECURE project-Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications; 2011.
84. P. Burgherr Using GIS and multivariate analyses to visualize risk levels and spatial patterns of severe accidents in the energy sector Me al., Safety, reliability and risk analysis: theory, methods and applications 2009 Taylor & Francis Group London (UK)
85. P. Burgherr, P. Eckle, and S. Hirschberg Comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the coal, oil and natural gas chains Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 105 2012 97 103
86. P. Burgherr Accidents and risks (chapter 9.3.4.7). In: Sathaye, J., O. Lucon, A. Rahman, J. Christensen, F. Denton, J. Fujino, G. Heath, S. Kadner, M. Mirza,H. Rudnick, A. Schlaepfer, A. Shmakin, 2011 O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Energy 2011 Cambridge University Press Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation
87. M. Spada, and P. Burgherr Accident risk S. Hirschberg, S. Wiemer, P. Burgherr, Energy from the Earth: deep geothermal as a resource for the future?. 2015 TA-Swiss, vdf Hochschulverlag AG an der ETH Zürich Bern, Switzerland
88. M. Spada, E. Sutra, S. Wolf, and P. Burgherr Accident risk assessment for deep geothermal energy systems T. Nowakowski, M. Mlynczak, A. Jodejko-Pietruczuk, S. Werbinska-Woiciechowska, Safety and reliability: methodology and applications 2015 Taylor and Francis Group London, UK
89. o D10.2-Research Stream 2b. Brussels, Belgium: NEEDS project "New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability"; 2009.
90. Eckle P, Burgherr P, Hirschberg S Final report on Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). SECURE Deliverable No. D6.2. Brussels, Belgium: SECURE project-Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic implications; 2011.
91. P. Eckle, P. Burgherr, and E. Michaux Risk of large oil spills: a statistical analysis in the aftermath of deepwater horizon Environ. Sci. Technol. 46 2012 13002 13008
92. P. Eckle, and P. Burgherr Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain Risk Anal. 33 2013 146 160
93. Spada M, Burgherr P Towards extreme consequence accidents in energy sector: are they expected based on historical observations? International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC), Davos Switzerland. Davos, Switzerland2014.
94. Spada M, Burgherr P, Hirschberg S Comparative Assessment of Severe Accidents Risk in the Energy Sector: Uncertainty Estimation Using a Combination of Weighting Tree and Bayesian Hierarchical Models. 12th Probabilistic Safety Assessment & Management conference (PSAM). Honolulu, HI, USA 2014.
95. Paté Cornell ME. Risks of terrorist attacks, probabilistic assessment and use of intelligence information. Stanford University, In: Proceedings of Terrorism Risk Analysis Symposium, USC, January 15,. Stanford, CA, USA2005.
96. True D, Leaver D, Fenstermacher E, Gaertner J Risk characterization of the potential consequences of an armed terrorist ground attack on a U.S. nuclear power plant. Report prepared by EPRI for the Nuclear Energy Institute NEI, Final Report,. 2003.
97. P. Burgherr, and S. Hirschberg Comparative risk assessment for energy systems: a tool for comprehensive assessment of energy security J.G. Voeller, Wiley handbook of science and technology for homeland security 2009 John Wiley & Sons Inc Hoboken NJ, USA
98. SECURE: Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications. 2010.
99. Eckle P, Cazzoli E, iBurgherr P, Hirschberg S. Analysis of terrorism risk for energy installations, Confidential Report, SECURE Deliverable No 5.7.2b, SECURE project "Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications". Brussels, Belgium 2011.
100. S. Hirschberg, P. Burgherr, G. Spiekerman, E. Cazzoli, J. Vitazek, and L. Cheng Comparative assessment of severe accidents in the Chinese energy sector 2003 Paul Scherrer Institut Villigen PSI, Switzerland PSI Report No. 03-04. CETP Report
101. World Health Organization (WHO) Life expectancy - Data by Country Global Health Observatory Data Repository 2015.
102. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). The World Factbook. 2015.
103. V.M. Bier, and S.-W. Lin On the treatment of uncertainty and variability in making decisions about risk Risk Anal. 33 2013 1899 1907
104. L.A. Cox Jr. Confronting deep uncertainties in risk analysis Risk Anal. 32 2012 1607 1629
105. H. Pasman, and W. Rogers The bumpy road to better risk control A Tour d'Horizon of new concepts and ideas J. Loss Prev. Process. Ind. 2015 10.1016/j.jlp.2014.12.003
106. O. Renn Concepts of risk: an interdisciplinary review. Part 2: Integrative approaches GAIA 17 2008 196 204
107. M. Riddel Uncertainty and measurement error in welfare models for risk changes J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 61 2011 341 354
108. M. Saisana, A. Saltelli, and S. Tarantola Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques as tools for the quality assessment of composite indicators J. R. Stat. Soc. A 168 2005 307 323
109. G. Härtler Statistische Methoden für die Zuverlässigkeitsanalyse 1983 VEB Verlag Technik Berlin
110. Spada M, Burgherr P, Hirschberg S. Comparative assessment of severe accidents risk in the energy sector: uncertainty estimation using a combination of weighting tree and Bayesian hierarchical models. in: Proceedings of the probabilistic safety assessment & management conference (PSAM), 22-27 June 2014. Honolulu, HI, USA 2014.
111. A. O'Hagan Bayesian statistics: principles and benefits M. van Boekel, A. Stein, A.H.C. van Bruggen, Bayesian statistics and quality modelling in agro-food production chain 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers Dordrecht 31 45
112. A. O'Hagan, and B.R. Luce A primer on Bayesian statistics in health economics and outcomes research 2003 MEDTAP International, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland.
113. Jr. D.S. Reis, and J.R. Stedinger Bayesian MCMC flood frequency analysis with historical information J. Hydrol. 313 2005 97 116
114. P. Burgherr, J. Giroux, and M. Spada Vulnerability of energy infrastructure to intentional attacks T. Nowakowski, M. Mlynczak, A. Jodejko-Pietruczuk, S. Werbinska-Woiciechowska, Safety and reliability: methodology and applications 2015 Taylor and Francis Group London, UK