Bayesian Data Analysis of Severe Fatal Accident Risk in the Oil Chain

Risk Analysis

Volumn 33, Issue 1, 2013, Pages 146-160

  Eckle, Petrissa ^a   Burgherr, Peter ^a  

^a PAUL SCHERRER INSTITUTE   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

Bayesian; Fatal accident; Oil; Refinery; Risk

Indexed keywords

ANALYTICAL FUNCTIONS; BAYESIAN; BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSIS; BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL; DATA SETS; END-USES; ENERGY CHAIN; EXTREME EVENTS; FATAL ACCIDENT RISK; FATAL ACCIDENTS; GAS STATIONS; MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY; NON-OECD COUNTRIES; OIL; REFINERY; SEVERE ACCIDENT; SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT;

ACCIDENTS; HIERARCHICAL SYSTEMS; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; REFINING; RISK PERCEPTION; RISKS;

RISK MANAGEMENT;

PETROLEUM;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; DATA SET; ENERGY EFFICIENCY; EXPLORATION; EXTRACTION; FREQUENCY ANALYSIS; HEATING; NUMERICAL MODEL; OECD; OIL INDUSTRY; RISK FACTOR; SUSTAINABILITY;

ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; FACTUAL DATABASE; HUMAN; METHODOLOGY; MINING; OCCUPATIONAL ACCIDENT; RISK ASSESSMENT;

ACCIDENTS, OCCUPATIONAL; BAYES THEOREM; DATABASES, FACTUAL; EXTRACTION AND PROCESSING INDUSTRY; HUMANS; PETROLEUM; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EID: 84872415471     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01848.x     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Hirschberg S, Spiekerman G, Dones R. Severe Accidents in the Energy Sector, 1st ed. Villigen PSI, Switzerland: Paul Scherrer Institut, PSI Report No. 98-16, 1998.
2. DNV. Worldwide Offshore Accident Databank (WOAD). Hovik, Norway: Det Norske Veritas AS, WOAD statistical report 1998, 1999.
3. Hazards Intelligence (HINT) [Internet]. Tampere. Finland: Rose & Laurel, 2011. Available at: http://www.saunalahti.fi/ility/HInt1.htm.x. Accessed April 12, 2011.
4. Chang JI, Lin C-C. A study of storage tank accidents [Internet]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2006; 19(1):51-59. Available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0950423005000641. Accessed April 12, 2011.
5. Vinnem JE. Evaluation of offshore emergency preparedness in view of rare accidents [Internet]. Safety Science, 2011; 49(2):178-191.
6. Marsh Energy Practice. The 100 largest losses 1972-2009 large property damage losses in the hydrocarbon-chemical industries, 2009. Available at: http://www.equityeng.com/sites/default/files/reports/Marsh_2009_100LargestLosses.pdf, accessed April 12, 2011.
7. International Organization for Standardization. European standard EN ISO 14044: Environmental management-Life cycle assessment-Requirements and guidelines, 2006. Available at: http://www.iso.org/iso/catalogue_detail?csnumber=38498, accessed April 12, 2011.
8. Frischknecht R, Jungbluth N, Althaus H-jörg, Doka G, Dones R, Heck T, Hellweg S, Hischier R, Nemecek T, Rebitzer G, Spielmann M. Ecoinvent: Introduction. The ecoinvent database: Overview and methodological framework. International Journal, 2005; 10(1):3-9.
9. International Organization for Standardization. European standard EN ISO 14031: Environmental management-Environmental Performance Evaluation-Guidelines. 1999.
10. Morgan RK. Environmental Impact Assessment: A Methodological Approach, 1st ed. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1999.
11. Bickel P, Friedrichs R (eds). ExternE, Externalities of Energy, Methodology 2005 update [Internet]. 2005. Available at: http://www.externe.info/brussels/methup05a.pdf. Accessed April 12, 2011.
12. Ecoinvent Centre. The ecoinvent LCA database-Ecoinvent data v2.0. Swiss Centre for Life Cycle Inventories, Dübendorf, Switzerland [Internet]. 2007; Available at: http://www.ecoinvent.org. Accessed April 12, 2011.
13. Burgherr P, Hirschberg S. A comparative analysis of accident risks in fossil, hydro and nuclear energy chains. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2008; 14(5):947-973.
14. Burgherr P, Eckle P, Hirschberg S. SECURE Deliverable No 5.7.2 Final Report on Severe Accident Risks including Key Indicators. Brussels, Belgium, 2011.
15. Coles SG, Powell EA. Bayesian methods in extreme value modeling: a review and new developments. International Statistical Review, 1996; 64(1):119-136.
16. Felder FA. A critical assessment of energy accident studies. Energy Policy, 2009; 37(12):5744-5751.
17. Pickands J, III. Statistical inference using extreme order statistics. The Annals of Statistics, 1975; 3(1):119-131.
18. Balkema AA, de Haan L. Residual life time at great age. The Annals of Probability, 1974; 2(5):792-904.
19. Coles S, Casson E. Extreme value modelling of hurricane wind speeds. Structural Safety, 1998; 20(3):283-296.
20. Embrechts P, Klüppelberg C, Mikosch T. Modelling extremal events for insurance and finance. Berlin: Springer Verlag, 1997.
21. BP. Excel workbook of historical statistical data from 1965-2009 [Internet]. 2010; Available at: http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622. Accessed April 12, 2011.
22. Bayes T. An Essay towards solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 1763. doi: 10.1098/rstl.1763.0053.
23. Lunn D, Spiegelhalter D, Thomas A, Best N. The BUGS project: Evolution, critique and future directions (with discussion). Statistics in Medicine, 2009; 28:3049-3082.
24. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS, Rubin DB. Bayesian Data Analysis. 2nd ed. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC, 2003.
25. Fawcett L, Walshaw D. A hierarchical model for extreme wind speeds. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics), 2006; 55(5):631-646.
26. Tancredi A, Anderson C, O'Hagan A. Accounting for threshold uncertainty in extreme value estimation. Extremes, 2006; 9:87-106.
27. Coles S. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. London: Springer-Verlag, 2001.
28. Kennedy MC, Roelofs VJ, Anderson CW, Salazar JD. A hierarchical Bayesian model for extreme pesticide residues. Food and Chemical Toxicology, 2011; 49(1):222-232.
29. Cox DR, Reid N. Parameter orthogonality and approximate conditional inference. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 1987; 49(1):1-39.
30. Eckle P, Pannatier Y, Burgherr P. Accident risk assessment of refineries depending on configuration and geographic location. submitted 2012.