Long-lead station-scale prediction of hydrological droughts in South Korea based on bivariate pattern-based downscaling

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 46, Issue 9-10, 2016, Pages 3305-3321

  Sohn, Soo Jin ^a   Tam, Chi Yung ^b  

^a APEC Climate Center   (South Korea)

^b CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

Author keywords

Bivariate and pattern based downscaling; Downscaled MME (DMME); Drought prediction; Hydrological drought; Multi model ensemble (MME); Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI); Statistical downscaling; Temperature and precipitation

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DOWNSCALING; DROUGHT; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEASONAL VARIATION;

PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH); SOUTH KOREA;

EID: 84937832986     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2770-3     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Barlow M, Cullen H, Lyon B (2002) Drought in Central and Southwest Asia: La Niña, the Warm Pool, and Indian Ocean precipitation. J Clim 15:697–700. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0697:DICASA>2.0.CO;2
2. Barnett T, Preisendorfer R (1987) Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecasts skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis. Mon Weather Rev 115:1825–1850
3. Barnston AG (1994) Linear statistical short-term climate predictive skill in the Northern Hemisphere. J Clim 7:1513–1564
4. Barnston AG, Livezey RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation pattern. Mon Weather Rev 115:1083–1126
5. Barnston AG, Mason SJ, Goddard L, Dewitt DG, Zebiak SE (2003) Multimodel ensembling in seasonal climate forecasting at IRI. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 84:1783–1796
6. Busuioc A, von Storch H, Schnur R (1999) Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and of statistical downscaling estimates under changing climate conditions. J Clim 12:258–272
7. Busuioc A, Chen D, Hellström C (2001) Performance of statistical downscaling models in GCM validation and regional climate change estimates: application for Swedish precipitation. Int J Climatol 21:557–578
8. Busuioc A, Tomozeiu R, Cacciamani C (2008) Statistical downscaling model based on canonical correlation analysis for winter extreme precipitation events in the Emilia-Romagna region. Int J Climatol 28:449–464. doi:10.1002/jov.1547
9. Cottrill A, Hendon HH, Lim EP, Langford S, Shelton K, Charles A, McClymont D, Jones D, Kuleshov Y (2013) Seasonal forecasting in the Pacific using the coupled model POAMA-2. Weather Forecast 28:668–680. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00072.1
10. Doblas-Reyes FJ, Deque M, Piedelievre JP (2000) Multi-model spread and probabilistic seasonal forecasts in PROVOST. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:2069–2088
11. Doblas-Reyes FJ, Hagedorn R, Palmer TN (2005) The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting-II. Calibration and combination. Tellus 57A:223–252
12. Fu X, Wang B (2004) The boreal-summer intraseasonal oscillations simulated in a hybrid coupled atmosphere–ocean model. Mon Weather Rev 132:2628–2649
13. Gong DY, Ho CH (2002) The Siberian high and climate change over middle to high latitude Asia. Theor Appl Climatol 72:1–9
14. Hagedorn R, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Palmer TN (2005) The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting I. Basic concept. Tellus 57A:219–233
15. Ham YG, Kang IS (2010) Improvement of seasonal forecasts with inclusion of tropical instability waves on initial conditions. Clim Dyn 36:1277–1290
16. Ham YG, Schubert S, Chang Y (2012) Optimal initial perturbations for ensemble prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation during boreal winter. J Clim 25:4932–4945. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00344.1
17. Heyen H, Zorita E, von Storch H (1996) Statistical downscaling of monthly mean North Atlantic air–pressure to sea level anomalies in the Baltic Sea. Tellus 48A:312–323
18. Hoerling M, Kumar A (2003) The perfect ocean for drought. Science 299:691–694
19. Jeong HI, Ashok K, Song BG, Min YM (2008) Experimental 6-month hindcast and forecast simulations using CCSM3. APCC 2008 technical report, APEC Climate Center
20. Jeong HI, Lee DY, Ashok K, Ahn JB, Lee JY, Luo JJ, Schemm JKE, Hendon HH, Braganza K, Ham YG (2012) Assessment of the APCC coupled MME suite in predicting the distinctive climate impacts of two flavors of ENSO during boreal winter. Clim Dyn 39:475–493. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1359-3
21. Jhun JG, Lee EJ (2004) A new East Asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the winter monsoon. J Clim 17:711–726
22. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetmaa A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471
23. Kang IS, Lee JY, Park CK (2004) Potential predictability of summer mean precipitation in a dynamical seasonal prediction system with systematic error correction. J Clim 17:834–844
24. Kang H, An KH, Park CK, Solis ALS, Stitthichivapak K (2007) Multimodel output statistical downscaling prediction of precipitation in the Philippines and Thailand. Geophys Res Lett 34:L15710
25. Kang H, Park CK, Saji NH, Ashok K (2009) Statistical downscaling of precipitation in Korea using multimodel output variables as predictors. Mon Weather Rev 137:1928–1938
26. Kim S, Park CK, Kim MK (2005) The regime shift of northern hemisphere circulation responsible for the spring drought in Korea. J Korean Meteorol Soc 41:571–585
27. Kim HS, Ho CH, Kim JH, Chu PS (2012) Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the western north Pacific. J Clim 25:4660–4678. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00236.1
28. KMA (2010) Annual climatological report. Korea meteorological administration, Seoul, Korea, 11-1360000-000016-10
29. Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, LaRow TE, Bachiochi DR, Zhang Z, Williford CE, Gadgil S, Surendran S (1999) Improved weather and seasonal climate forecasts from multimodal superensemble. Science 285:1548–1550. doi:10.1126/science.285.5433.1548
30. Krishnamurti TN, Kishtawal CM, Shin DW, Williford CE (2000) Multi-model superensemble for weather and seasonal climate. J Clim 13:4196–4216
31. Kug JS, Lee JY, Kang IS, Wang B, Park CK (2008) Optimal multi-model ensemble method in seasonal climate prediction. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 44:233–247
32. Lee JH, Byun YH, Park CK (2001) The characteristics of drought in the Korean Peninsula in the spring of 2001. Atmosphere 11:342–345 (in Korean)
33. Lee DY, Ashok K, Ahn JB (2011) Toward enhancement of prediction skills of multimodel ensemble seasonal prediction: a climate filter concept. J Geophys Res 116:D06116. doi:10.1029/2010JD014610
34. Lee DY, Ahn JB, Ashok K (2013a) Improvement of multimodel ensemble seasonal prediction skills over East Asian summer monsoon regions using a climate filter concept. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 52:1127–1138. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0123.1
35. Lee DY, Ahn JB, Ashok K, Alessandri A (2013b) Improvement of grand multi-model ensemble prediction skills for the coupled models of APCC/ENSEMBLES using a climate filter. Atmos Sci Lett 14:139–145. doi:10.1002/asl2.430
36. Lorenzo MN, Taboada JJ (2005) Influences of atmospheric variability on freshwater input in Galician Rias in winter. J Atmos Ocean Sci 10:377–387
37. Maurer EP, Hidalgo HG (2008) Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: and intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12:551–563
38. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Preprints of the 8th conference on applied climatology, Anaheim, pp 179–184
39. Merryfield WJ, Lee WS, Boer GJ, Kharin VV, Scinocca JF, Flato GM, Ajayamohan RS, Fyfe JC, Tang Y, Polavarapu S (2013) The Canadian seasonal to interannual prediction system. Part I: models and initialization. Mon Weather Rev 141:2910–2945. doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00216.1
40. Michaelsen J (1987) Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J Clim Appl Meteorol 26:1589–1600
41. Min SK, Kwon WT, Park EH, Choi YG (2003) Spatial and temporal comparisons of droughts over Korea with East Asia. Int J Climatol 23:223–233
42. Min YM, Kryjov VN, An KH, Saji NH, Sohn SJ, Lee WJ, Oh JH (2011a) Evaluation of the weather generator CLIGEN with daily precipitation characteristics in Korea. Asia-Pacific J Atmos Sci 47:255–263
43. Min YM, Kryjov VN, Oh JH (2011b) Probabilistic interpretation of regression-based downscaled seasonal ensemble predictions with the estimation of uncertainty. J Geophys Res 116:D08101. doi:10.1029/2010JD015284
44. Mu Q, Jackson CS, Stoffa PL (2004) A multivariate empirical–orthogonal-function-based measure of climate model performance. J Geophys Res 109:D15101. doi:10.1029/2004JD004584
45. North GA, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706
46. Ogi M, Tachibana Y, Yamazaki K (2003) Impact of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the summertime atmospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett 30(13):1704. doi:10.1029/2003GL017280
47. Palmer TN, Brankovic C, Richardson DS (2000) A probability and decision-model analysis of PROBOST seasonal multi-model ensemble integrations. Q J R Meteorol Soc 126:2013–2034
48. Park CK, Schubert SD (1997) On the nature of the 1994 East Asian summer drought. J Clim 10:1056–1070
49. Potts JM, Folland CK, Jolliffe IT, Sexton D (1996) Revised “LEPS” scores for assessing climate model simulations and long-range forecasts. J Clim 9:34–53
50. Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan HL, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp R, Kistler R, Woollen J, Behringer D, Liu H, Stokes D, Grumbine R, Gayno G, Wang J, Hou YT, Chuang HY, Juang HMH, Sela J, Iredell M, Treadon R, Kleist D, Delst PV, Keyser D, Derber J, Ek M, Meng J, Wei H, Yang R, Lord S, Dool HVD, Kumar A, Wang W, Long C, Chelliah M, Xue Y, Huang B, Schemm JK, Ebisuzaki W, Lin R, Xie P, Chen M, Zhou S, Higgins W, Zou C, Liu Q, Chen Y, Han Y, Cucurull L, Reynolds RW, Rutledge G, Goldberg M (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057. doi:10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1
51. Schär C, Lüthi D, Beyerle U, Heise E (1999) The soil-precipitation feedback: a process study with a regional climate model. J Clim 12:722–741
52. Schubert S, Koster R, Hoerling M, Seager R, Lettenmaier D, Kumear A, Gutzer D (2007) Predicting drought on seasonal-to-decadal time scales. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1625–1630
53. Shukla J, Anderson J, Baumhefner D, Brankovic C, Chang Y, Kalnay E, Marx L, Palmer T, Paolino D, Ploshay J, Schubert S, Straus D, Suarez M, Tribbia J (2000) Dynamical seasonal prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:2493–2606
54. Sohn SJ, Tam CY, Ahn JB (2011) Leading modes of East Asian winter climate variability and their predictability: an assessment of the APCC multi-model ensemble. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 89:455–474
55. Sohn SJ, Min YM, Lee JY, Tam CY, Kang IS, Wang B, Ahn JB, Yamagata T (2012) Assessment of the long-lead probabilistic prediction for the Asian summer monsoon precipitation (1983–2011) based on the APCC multimodel system and a statistical model. J Geophys Res 117:D04102
56. Sohn SJ, Ahn JB, Tam CY (2013a) Six month-lead downscaling prediction of winter to spring drought in South Korea based on a multimodel ensemble. Geophys Res Lett 40:579–583
57. Sohn SJ, Tam CY, Ahn JB (2013b) Development of a multimodel-based seasonal prediction system for extreme droughts and floods: a case study for South Korea. Int J Climatol 33:793–805
58. Sun JQ, Ahn JB (2011) A GCM-based forecasting model for the landfall of tropical cyclones in China. Adv Atmos Sci 28:1049–1055
59. Thompson DW, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: month-to-month variability. J Clim 13:1000–1016
60. Tomozeiu R, Cacciamani C, Pavan V, Morgillo A, Busuioc A (2006) Climatic change scenarios for surface temperature in Emila-Romagna (Italy) obtained using statistical downscaling models. Theor Appl Climatol 90:25–47. doi:10.1007/s00704-006-0275-z
61. Tung YL, Tam CY, Sohn SJ, Chu JL (2013) Improving the seasonal forecast for summertime South China rainfall using statistical downscaling. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:5147–5159. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50367
62. Vicente-Serrano SM, Begueria S, Lopez-Moreno JI (2010) A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J Clim 23:1696–1718
63. von Storch H, Zorita E, Cubasch U (1993) Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: an application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime. J Clim 6:1161–1171
64. Walker GT, Bliss EW (1932) World Weather V. Mem R Meteorol Soc 4:53–84
65. Wallace JM, Gutzler DS (1981) Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter. Mon Weather Rev 109:784–812
66. Wang B (1992) The vertical structure and development of the ENSO anomaly model during 1979–1989. J Atmos Sci 49:668–712
67. Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000) Pacific-East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asia climate? J Clim 13:1517–1534
68. Wilks DS (1995) Statistical methods in the atmosphere science: an introduction. Academic, San Diego
69. Wood AW, Maurer EP, Kumar A, Lettenmaier DP (2002) Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States. J Geophys Res 107:D20. doi:10.1029/2001JD000659
70. Ye K, Tam CY, Zhou W, Sohn SJ (2015) Seasonal prediction of June rainfall over South China: model assessment and statistical downscaling. Adv Atmos Sci 32:680–689. doi:10.1007/s00376-014-4047-x
71. Yun WT, Stefanova L, Mitra AK, Kumar VV, Dewar W, Krishnamurti TN (2005) A multi-model superensemble algorithm for seasonal climate prediction using DEMETER forecasts. Tellus 57A:280–289