Seasonal forecasting in the pacific using the coupled model POAMA-2

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 28, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 668-680

  Cottrill, Andrew ^a   Hendon, Harry H ^a   Lim, Eun Pa ^a   Langford, Sally ^a   Shelton, Kay ^a   Charles, Andrew ^a   McClymont, David ^b   Jones, David ^a   Kuleshov, Yuriy ^a  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

^b DHM Software Pty Ltd   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE MODELS; BUREAU OF METEOROLOGIES; CONVERGENCE ZONES; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SEASONAL FORECASTING; SEASONAL FORECASTS; SEASONAL PREDICTION; SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY;

RAIN;

FORECASTING;

EL NINO; HINDCASTING; LA NINA; RAINFALL; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SPATIAL VARIATION; TEMPORAL VARIATION; WEATHER FORECASTING;

AUSTRALIA; PACIFIC ISLANDS; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (SOUTH);

EID: 84880024536     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: 15200434     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-12-00072.1     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Abawi, Y., S. Dutta, X. Zhang, and D. McClymont, 2005a: ENSO based streamflow forecasting and its application to water allocation and cropping decisions-An Australian experience. Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change-Impact Assessments and Decision Making, T. Wagener, S. Franks, and H. Gupta, Eds., IAHS Publ. 295, 346-354.
2. Abawi, Y., P. Lianso, M. Harrison, and S. J. Mason, 2005b: Water, health and early warnings. Seasonal Climate: Forecasting and Managing Risk, A. Troccoli et al., Eds., Springer, 351- 395.
3. Ashok, K., S. K. Behera, S. A. Rao, H. Weng, and T. Yamagata, 2007: El Niño Modoki and its possible teleconnection. J. Geophys. Res., 112, C11007, doi:10.1029/2006JC003798.
4. Barnston, A. G., and C. F. Ropelewski, 1992: Prediction of ENSO episodes using canonical correlation analysis. J. Climate, 5, 1316-1345.
5. Barry, R. G., and R. J. Chorley, 2003: Atmosphere, Weather and Climate 8th ed. Routledge, 421 pp.
6. Colman, R., and Coauthors, 2005: BMRC Atmospheric model (BAM) version 3.0: Comparison with mean climatology. BMRC Research Rep. 108, 23 pp.
7. He, Y., and A. G. Barnston, 1996: Long-lead forecasts of seasonal precipitation in the tropical Pacific islands using CCA. J. Climate, 8, 2020-2035.
8. Hendon, H. H., E. Lim, G. Wang, O. Alves, and D. Hudson, 2009: Prospects for predicting two flavors of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19713, doi:10.1029/2009GL040100.
9. Hudson, D., O. Alves, H. H. Hendon, and G. Wang, 2010: The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST. Climate Dyn., 36, 1155-1171, doi:10.1007/ s00382-00010-00763-00389.
10. Johnson, C., and N. Bowler, 2009: On the reliability and calibration of ensemble forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 1717-1720.
11. Kao, H. Y., and J. Y. Yu, 2009: Contrasting eastern Pacific and central Pacific types of ENSO. J. Climate, 22, 615-632.
12. Katzfey, J., M. Chattopadhyay, J. L. McGregor, K. Nguyen, and M. Thatcher, 2011: The added value of dynamical downscaling. 19th Int. Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Perth, WA, Australia, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2747-2753.
13. Kug, J., F.-F. Jin, and S. An, 2009: Two types of El Niño events: Cold tongue El Niño and warm pool El Niño. J. Climate, 22, 1499-1515.
14. Lacis, A. A., and J. E. Hansen, 1974: A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the earth's atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 118-133.
15. Lal, M., J. L. McGregor, and K. C. Nguyen, 2007: Very highresolution climate simulation over Fiji using a global variableresolution model. Climate Dyn., 30, 293-305.
16. Langford, S., and H. H. Hendon, 2011: Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability. CAWCR Tech. Rep. 39, 32 pp.
17. Langford, S., and H. H. Hendon, 2013: Improving reliability of coupled model forecasts of Australian seasonal rainfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 728-741.
18. Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, D. Hudson, G. Wang, and O. Alves, 2009: Dynamical forecast of inter-El Niño variations of tropical SST and Australian spring rainfall. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3796-3810.
19. Lim, E.-P., H. H. Hendon, O. Alves, Y. Yin, G. Wang, D. Hudson, M. Zhao, and L. Shi, 2010: Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical Indo- Pacific SST and Australian rainfall with improved ocean initial conditions. CAWCR Tech. Rep. 032, 26 pp.
20. Louis, F.-J., 1983: Parameterization of sub-grid scale processes. Proc. Seminar on Interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction Products, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 83-97.
21. Manabe, S., and J. L. Holloway, 1975: The seasonal variation of the hydrologic cycle as simulated by a global model of the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 80, 1617-1649.
22. McGregor, J. L., K. C. Nguyen, and J. J. Katzfey, 2008: A variety of tropical climate simulations using CCAM. High Resolution Modelling-The Second CAWCR Modelling Workshop, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, CAWCR, 29-32.
23. Meehl, G. A., 1987: The annual cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 27-50.
24. Oke, P. R., A. Schiller, D. A. Griffin, and G. B. Brassington, 2005: Ensemble data assimilation for an eddy-resolving ocean model of the Australian region. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 3301-3311.
25. Pacanowski, R. C., 1995: MOM2 documentation, user's guide and reference manual, version 1.0. GFDL, 232 pp.
26. Palmer, T. N., G. J. Shutts, and R. Swinbank, 1986: Alleviation of a systematic bias in general circulation and numerical weather prediction models through an orographic gravity wave drag parameterization. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 112, 1001-1039.
27. Reynolds, R. W., N. A. Rayner, T. M. Smith, D. C. Stokes, and W. Wang, 2002: An improved in situ and satellite SST analysis for climate. J. Climate, 15, 1609-1625.
28. Schiller, A., 1999: How well does a coarse-resolution circulation model simulate observed interannual variability in the upper Indian Ocean? Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1485-1488.
29. Schiller, A., and J. S. Godfrey, 2003: Indian Ocean intraseasonal variability in an ocean general circulation model. J. Climate, 16, 21-39.
30. Schiller, A., J. Godfrey, P. McIntosh, G. Meyers, N. Smith, O. Alves, O. Wang, and R. Fiedler, 2002:Anew version of theAustralian Community Ocean Model for seasonal climate prediction. CSIRO Marine Research Rep. 240, 82 pp.
31. Schwarzkopf, M. D., and S. B. Fels, 1991: The simplified exchange method revisited: An accurate, rapid method for computation of infrared cooling rates and fluxes. J. Geophys. Res., 96 (D5), 9075-9096.
32. Smith, R. N. B., 1990: A scheme for predicting layer clouds and their water content in a general circulation model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 435-460.
33. Taschetto, A., and M. H. England, 2009: El Niño Modoki impacts on Australian rainfall. J. Climate, 22, 3167-3174.
34. Tiedtke, M., 1989: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 117, 1779-1800.
35. Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012.
36. Valcke, S., L. Terray, and A. Piacentine, 2000: OASIS 2.4 ocean atmosphere sea ice soil user's guide, version 2.4. CERFACS TR CMGC.00-10, Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, 85 pp.
37. Vincent, D. G., 1994: The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ): A review. Mon. Wea. Rev., 122, 1949-1970.
38. Wang, G., O. Alves, and N. Smith, 2005: BAM3.0 tropical surface flux simulation and its impact on SST drift in a coupled model. BMRC Research Rep. 107, 30 pp.
39. Wang, G., D. Hudson, Y. Yin, O. Alves, H. Hendon, S. Langford, G. Liu, and F. Tseitkin, 2011: POAMA-2 SST skill assessment and beyond. CAWCR Research Letters, No. 6, 41-46.
40. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. International Geophysics Series, Vol. 91, Elsevier, 627 pp.
41. Xie, P., and P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539-2558.
42. Yin, Y., O. Alves, and P. R. Oke, 2011: An ensemble ocean data assimilation system for seasonal prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 786-808.
43. Zhang, C., M. Dong, S. Gualdi, H. H. Hendon, E. D. Maloney, A. Marshall, K. R. Sperber, and W. Wang, 2006: Simulations of the Madden-Julian oscillation in four pairs of coupled and uncoupled models. Climate Dyn., 27, 573-592.
44. Zhao, M., and H. H. Hendon, 2009: Representation and prediction of the Indian Ocean dipole in POAMA seasonal forecast model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 337-352.
45. Zhong, A., O. Alves, H. Hendon, and L. Rikus, 2006: On aspects of the mean climatology and tropical interannual variability in the BMRC atmospheric model (BAM 3.0). BMRC Research Rep., 121, 34 pp.