Large-scale atmospheric forcing and topographic modification of precipitation rates over High Asia - A neural-network-based approach

Earth System Dynamics

Volumn 6, Issue 1, 2015, Pages 61-81

  Gerlitz, L ^a   Conrad, O ^a   Bohner J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAMBURG   (Germany)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

IMAGE RESOLUTION; LANDFORMS; NEURAL NETWORKS; SCALE (DEPOSITS); SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

ATMOSPHERIC SITUATIONS; NETWORK-BASED APPROACH; PRECIPITATION DISTRIBUTION; PRECIPITATION ESTIMATION; PREDICTIVE PERFORMANCE; STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING; TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION; TOPOGRAPHIC MODIFICATIONS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; ATMOSPHERIC FORCING; CLIMATE EFFECT; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SPATIAL RESOLUTION; SPATIAL VARIATION; TEMPORAL VARIATION;

CHINA; QINGHAI-XIZANG PLATEAU;

EID: 84924023463     PISSN: 21904979     EISSN: 21904987     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5194/esd-6-61-2015     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Akhtar, M., Ahmad, N., and Booij, M. J.: The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush-Karakorum- Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios, J. Hydrol., 355, 148-163, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.015, 2008.
2. Bao, X. and Zhang, F.: Evaluation of NCEP/CFSR, NCEP/NCAR, ERA-Interim and ERA-40 Reanalysis Datasets against Independent Sounding Observations over the Tibetan Plateau, J. Climate, 26, 206-214, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00056.1, 2012.
3. Barros, A. P., Joshi, M., Putkonen, J., and Burbank, D. W.: A study of the 1999 monsoon rainfall in a mountainous region in central Nepal using TRMM products and rain gauge observations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3683-3686, doi:10.1029/2000GL011827, 2000.
4. Barry, R. G.: Recent advances in mountain climate research, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 110, 549-553, doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0695-x, 2012.
5. Basheer, I. A. and Hajmeer, M.: Artificial neural networks: fundamentals, computing, design, and application, J. Microbiol. Meth., 43, 3-31, 2000.
6. Berrisford, P., Dee, D., Fielding, K., Fuentes, M., Kallberg, P., Kobayashi, S., and Uppala, S.: The ERA-Interim Archive, ERA report series [online] available at: http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/library/do/references/list/782009 (last access: 15 January 2013), 2009.
7. Böhner, J.: Säkulare Klimaschwankungen und rezente Klimatrends Zentral- und Hochasiens, Goltze, Göttingen, 1996.
8. Böhner, J.: General climatic controls and topoclimatic variations in Central and High Asia, Boreas, 35, 279-295, doi:10.1080/03009480500456073, 2006.
9. Böhner, J. and Antonić, O.: Chapter 8 Land-Surface Parameters Specific to Topo-Climatology, in: Developments in Soil Science, Vol. 33, edited by: Hengl, T. and Reuter, H. I., Elsevier, available at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S0166248108000081, last access: 15 January 2013, 195-226, 2009.
10. Bookhagen, B. and Burbank, D. W.: Topography, relief, and TRMM-derived rainfall variations along the Himalaya, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08405, doi:10.1029/2006GL026037, 2006.
11. Buishand, T. A.: Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records, J. Hydrol., 58, 11-27, 1982.
12. Chattopadhyay, S.: Feed forward Artificial Neural Network model to predict the average summer-monsoon rainfall in India, Acta Geophys., 55, 369-382, doi:10.2478/s11600-007-0020-8, 2007.
13. Chen, F., Liu, Y., Liu, Q., and Li, X.: Spatial downscaling of TRMM 3B43 precipitation considering spatial heterogeneity, Int. J. Remote Sens., 35, 3074-3093, doi:10.1080/01431161.2014.902550, 2014.
14. Corbosiero, K. L. and Molinari, J.: The Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the Distribution of Convection in Tropical Cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 2110-2123, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2110:TEOVWS>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
15. Coulibaly, P., Dibike, Y. B., and Anctil, F.: Downscaling Precipitation and Temperature with Temporal Neural Networks, J. Hydrometeorol., 6, 483-496, doi:10.1175/JHM409.1, 2005.
16. Daly, C., Neilson, R. P., and Phillips, D. L.: A Statistical- Topographic Model for Mapping Climatological Precipitation over Mountainous Terrain, J. Appl. Meteorol., 33, 140-158, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2, 1994.
17. Dawson, C. W. and Wilby, R. L.: Hydrological modelling using artificial neural networks, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 25, 80-108, doi:10.1177/030913330102500104, 2001.
18. Dee, D. P., Uppala, S. M., Simmons, A. J., Berrisford, P., Poli, P., Kobayashi, S., Andrae, U., Balmaseda, M. A., Balsamo, G., and Bauer, P.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 553-597, 2011.
19. Dibike, Y. B. and Coulibaly, P.: Temporal neural networks for downscaling climate variability and extremes, Neural Networks, 19, 135-144, doi:10.1016/j.neunet.2006.01.003, 2006.
20. Dimri, A. P., Yasunari, T., Wiltshire, A., Kumar, P., Mathison, C., Ridley, J., and Jacob, D.: Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas, Sci. Total Environ., 468-469 doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.040, 2013.
21. Domrös, M.: The Climate of China, Springer, Berlin, 1988.
22. Farr, T. G., Rosen, P. A., Caro, E., Crippen, R., Duren, R., Hensley, S., Kobrick, M., Paller, M., Rodriguez, E., and Roth, L.: The shuttle radar topography mission, Rev. Geophys., 45, RG2004, doi:10.1029/2005RG000183, 2007.
23. Filippi, L., Palazzi, E., Von Hardenberg, J., and Provenzale, A.: Multidecadal Variations in the Relationship between the NAO and Winter Precipitation in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram, J. Climate, 27, 7890-7902, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00286.1, 2014.
24. Flohn, H.: Recent investigations on the climatogenetic role of the Qinghai-Plateau: Now and during the late Cenozoik, in: Reports of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau, edited by: Hövermann, J. and Wang, W., Science Press, Beijing, 112-139, 1987.
25. Frank, W. M. and Ritchie, E. A.: Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on the Intensity and Structure of Numerically Simulated Hurricanes, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 2249-2269, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<2249:EOVWSO>2.0.CO;2, 2001.
26. Gao, L., Bernhardt, M., and Schulz, K.: Elevation correction of ERA-Interim temperature data in complex terrain, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 4661-4673, doi:10.5194/hess-16-4661-2012, 2012.
27. Gerlitz, L.: Using fuzzyfied regression trees for statistical downscaling and regionalization of near surface temperatures in complex terrain, Theor. Appl. Climatol., doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1285-x, in press, 2014.
28. Gerlitz, L., Conrad, O., Thomas, A., and Bhner, J.: Warming patterns over the Tibetan Plateau and adjacent lowlands derived from elevation- and biascorrected ERA-Interim data, Clim. Res., 58, 235-246, doi:10.3354/cr01193, 2014.
29. Guan, H., Hsu, H.-H., Makhnin, O., Xie, H., and Wilson, J. L.: Examination of selected atmospheric and orographic effects on monthly precipitation of Taiwan using the ASOADeK model, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 1171-1181, doi:10.1002/joc.1762, 2009.
30. Günther, F. and Fritsch, S.: neuralnet: Training of neural networks, R Journal, 2, 30-38, 2010.
31. Hannachi, A., Jolliffe, I. T., Stephenson, D. B., and Trendafilov, N.: In search of simple structures in climate: simplifying EOFs, Int. J. Climatol., 26, 7-28, doi:10.1002/joc.1243, 2006.
32. Hannachi, A., Jolliffe, I. T., and Stephenson, D. B.: Empirical orthogonal functions and related techniques in atmospheric science: A review, Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1119-1152, doi:10.1002/joc.1499, 2007.
33. Hecht-Nielsen, R.: Theory of the backpropagation neural network, in: vol. 1, International Joint Conference on Neural Networks - IJCNN, San Diego, 593-605, 1989.
34. Immerzeel, W. W. and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Seasonal prediction of monsoon rainfall in three Asian river basins: the importance of snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 1835-1842, doi:10.1002/joc.2033, 2010.
35. Jain, A. and Kumar, A. M.: Hybrid neural network models for hydrologic time series forecasting, Appl. Soft Comput., 7, 585-592, doi:10.1016/j.asoc.2006.03.002, 2007.
36. Jin-Huan, Z. H. U., Shu-Po, M. A., Han, Z. O. U., Li-Bo, Z., and Peng, L. I.: Evaluation of reanalysis products with in situ GPS sounding observations in the Eastern Himalayas, Atmos. Ocean. Sci. Lett., 7, 17-22, 2013.
37. Kirono, D. G. C., Tapper, N. J., and McBride, J. L.: Documenting Indonesian Rainfall in the 1997/1998 El Niño Event, Phys. Geogr., 20, 422-435, doi:10.1080/02723646.1999.10642687, 1999.
38. Kumar, K. K., Rajagopalan, B., Cane, M. A.: On the weakening relationship between the indian monsoon and ENSO, Science, 284, 2156-2159, 1999.
39. Kurita, N. and Yamada, H.: The Role of Local Moisture Recycling Evaluated Using Stable Isotope Data from over the Middle of the Tibetan Plateau during the Monsoon Season, J. Hydrometeorol., 9, 760-775, doi:10.1175/2007JHM945.1, 2008.
40. Li, C. and Yanai, M.: The Onset and Interannual Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon in Relation to Land-Sea Thermal Contrast, J. Climate, 9, 358-375, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<0358:TOAIVO>2.0.CO;2, 1996.
41. Mall, R. K., Singh, R., Gupta, A., Srinivasan, G., and Rathore, L. S.: Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture: A Review, Climatic Change, 78, 445-478, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-9042-x, 2006.
42. Maraun, D., Wetterhall, F., Ireson, A. M., Chandler, R. E., Kendon, E. J., Widmann, M., Brienen, S., Rust, H. W., Sauter, T., Themeßl, M., Venema V. K. C., Chun K. P., Goodess, C. M., Jones R.G., Onof C., Vrac M., Thiele-Eich I.: Precipitation downscaling under climate change: recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG3003, doi:10.1029/2009RG000314, 2010.
43. Matthews, R. B., Kropff, M. J., Horie, T., and Bachelet, D.: Simulating the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia and evaluating options for adaptation, Agr. Syst., 54, 399-425, doi:10.1016/S0308-521X(95)00060-I, 1997.
44. Maussion, F., Scherer, D., Mölg, T., Collier, E., Curio, J., and Finkelnburg, R.: Precipitation Seasonality and Variability over the Tibetan Plateau as Resolved by the High Asia Reanalysis, J. Climate, 27, 1910-1927, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00282.1, 2014.
45. Mekanik, F., Imteaz, M. A., Gato-Trinidad, S., and Elmahdi, A.: Multiple regression and Artificial Neural Network for long-term rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes, J. Hydrol., 503, 11-21, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.035, 2013.
46. Özesmi, S. L. and Özesmi, U.: An artificial neural network approach to spatial habitat modelling with interspecific interaction, Ecol. Model., 116, 15-31, doi:10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00149-5, 1999.
47. Parth Sarthi, P., Agrawal, A., and Rana, A.: Possible future changes in cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal, India under warmer climate, Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.4053, in press, 2014.
48. Peings, Y. and Douville, H.: Influence of the Eurasian snow cover on the Indian summer monsoon variability in observed climatologies and CMIP3 simulations, Clim. Dynam., 34, 643-660, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0565-0, 2010.
49. Pokhrel, S., Chaudhari, H. S., Saha, S. K., Dhakate, A., Yadav, R. K., Salunke, K., Mahapatra, S., and Rao, S. A.: ENSO, IOD and Indian Summer Monsoon in NCEP climate forecast system, Clim. Dynam., 39, 2143-2165, doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1349-5, 2012.
50. Preethi, B., Revadekar, J. V., and Kripalani, R. H.: Anomalous behaviour of the Indian summer monsoon 2009, J. Earth Syst. Sci., 120, 783-794, doi:10.1007/s12040-011-0112-3, 2011.
51. Prodhomme, C., Terray, P., Masson, S., Boschat, G., and Izumo, T.: Oceanic factors controlling the Indian summer monsoon onset in a coupled model, Clim. Dynam., 44, 977-1002, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2200-y, 2015.
52. Ranjan Nayak, D., Mahapatra, A., and Mishra, P.: A Survey on Rainfall Prediction using Artificial Neural Network, Int. J. Comput. Appl., 72, 32-40, doi:10.5120/12580-9217, 2013.
53. Romatschke, U., Medina, S., and Houze, R. A.: Regional, Seasonal, and Diurnal Variations of Extreme Convection in the South Asian Region, J. Climate, 23, 419-439, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3140.1, 2010.
54. Sankar, S., Kumar, M. R. R., and Reason, C.: On the relative roles of El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole events on the Monsoon Onset over Kerala, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 103, 359-374, doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0306-7, 2011.
55. Sauter, T. and Venema, V.: Natural Three-Dimensional Predictor Domains for Statistical Precipitation Downscaling, J. Climate, 24, 6132-6145, doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4155.1, 2011.
56. Sauter, T., Schneider, C., Kilian, R., and Moritz, M.: Simulation and analysis of runoff from a partly glaciated meso-scale catchment area in Patagonia using an artificial neural network, Hydrol. Process., 23, 1019-1030, doi:10.1002/hyp.7210, 2009.
57. Schönwiese, C.-D., Walter, A., and Brinckmann, S.: Statistical assessments of anthropogenic and natural global climate forcing. An update, Meteorol. Z., 19, 3-10, doi:10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0421, 2010.
58. Schoof, J. T.: Statistical Downscaling in Climatology, Geogr. Compass, 7, 249-265, doi:10.1111/gec3.12036, 2013.
59. Schoof, J. T. and Pryor, S. C.: Downscaling temperature and precipitation: a comparison of regression-based methods and artificial neural networks, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 773-790, doi:10.1002/joc.655, 2001.
60. Shrestha, D., Singh, P., and Nakamura, K.: Spatiotemporal variation of rainfall over the central Himalayan region revealed by TRMM Precipitation Radar, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22106, doi:10.1029/2012JD018140, 2012.
61. Shrestha, M. L.: Interannual variation of summer monsoon rainfall over Nepal and its relation to Southern Oscillation Index, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 75, 21-28, doi:10.1007/s007030070012, 2000.
62. Shukla, R. P., Tripathi, K. C., Pandey, A. C., and Das, I. M. L.: Prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using Niño indices: A neural network approach, Atmos. Res., 102, 99-109, doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.06.013, 2011.
63. Sigdel, M. and Ikeda, M.: Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Nepal Related with Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulations, J. Earth Sci. Clim. Change, 3.2, 1000112, doi:10.4172/2157-7617.1000112, 2012.
64. Singh, P. and Borah, B.: Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction using artificial neural network, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 27, 1585-1599, doi:10.1007/s00477-013-0695-0, 2013.
65. Slingo, J. M. and Annamalai, H.: 1997: The El Niño of the Century and the Response of the Indian Summer Monsoon, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 1778-1797, doi:10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<1778:TENOOT>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
66. Suprit, K. and Shankar, D.: Resolving orographic rainfall on the Indian west coast, Int. J. Climatol., 28, 643-657, doi:10.1002/joc.1566, 2008.
67. Tomassetti, B., Verdecchia, M., and Giorgi, F.: NN5: A neural network based approach for the downscaling of precipitation fields - Model description and preliminary results, J. Hydrol., 367, 14-26, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.12.017, 2009.
68. Wang, A. and Zeng, X.: Evaluation of multireanalysis products with in situ observations over the Tibetan Plateau, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05102, doi:10.1029/2011JD016553, 2012.
69. Wang, D., Xie, Q., Du, Y., Wang, W., and Chen, J.: The 1997-1998 warm event in the South China Sea, Chin. Sci. Bull., 47, 1221-1227, doi:10.1007/BF02907614, 2002.
70. Wang, H. and He, S.: Weakening relationship between East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO after mid-1970s, Chin. Sci. Bull., 57, 3535-3540, doi:10.1007/s11434-012-5285-x, 2012.
71. Wingo, M. T. and Cecil, D. J.: Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on Tropical Cyclone Precipitation, Mon. Weather Rev., 138, 645-662, doi:10.1175/2009MWR2921.1, 2009.
72. Wulf, H., Bookhagen, B., and Scherler, D.: Seasonal precipitation gradients and their impact on fluvial sediment flux in the Northwest Himalaya, Geomorphology, 118, 13-21, doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2009.12.003, 2010.
73. Xu, Z. X., Chen, Y. N., and Li, J. Y.: Impact of climate change on water resources in the Tarim River basin,Water Resour. Manage., 18, 439-458, 2004.
74. Yang, M., Yao, T., Gou, X., and Tang, H.: Water Recycling between the Land Surface and Atmosphere on the Northern Tibetan Plateau: A Case Study at Flat Observation Sites, Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 39, 694-698, 2007.