Response of epiphytic lichens to 21st century climate change and tree disease scenarios

Biological Conservation

Volumn 180, Issue , 2014, Pages 153-164

  Ellis, Christopher J ^a   Eaton, Sally ^a   Theodoropoulos, Marios ^a   Coppins, Brian J ^a   Seaward, Mark R D ^b   Simkin, Janet ^c  

^a ROYAL BOTANIC GARDEN EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BRADFORD   (United Kingdom)

^c NEWCASTLE UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Climate change; Lichen epiphytes; Scenarios; SO2 pollution; Tree disease

Indexed keywords

BIOCLIMATOLOGY; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT; DISEASE INCIDENCE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; EPIPHYTE; FUNGAL DISEASE; LICHEN; SULFUR DIOXIDE; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

SCOTLAND; UNITED KINGDOM;

EID: 84908316794     PISSN: 00063207     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2014.09.046     Document Type: Article

References (87)

1. Averis A., Averis B., Birks J., Horsfield D., Thompson D., Yeo M. An Illustrated Guide to British Upland Vegetation 2004, Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough.
2. Barnett C., Hossell J., Perry M., Procter C., Hughes G. A Handbook of Climate Trends across Scotland 2006, Scotland and Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER), Edinburgh.
3. Bates J.W., Bell J.N.B., Farmer A.M. Epiphyte recolonization of oaks along a gradient of air pollution in south-east England, 1979-1990. Environ. Pollut. 1990, 68:81-99.
4. 2 pollution. Atmos. Environ. 2001, 35:2557-2568.
5. Berry P., Onishi Y., Paterson J. Understanding the Implications of Climate Change for Woodland Biodiversity and Community Functioning 2012, Forestry Commission (UK), Edinburgh.
6. Binder M.D., Ellis C.J. Conservation of the rare British lichen Vulpicida pinastri: changing climate, habitat loss and strategies for mitigation. Lichenologist 2008, 40:63-79.
7. Boucher V.L., Nash T.H. Growth patterns in Ramalina menziesii in California: coastal vs. inland populations. Bryologist 1990, 93:295-302.
8. Braidwood D.W., Ellis C.J. Bioclimatic equilibrium for lichen distributions on disjunct continental landmasses. Botany 2012, 90:1316-1325.
9. Cislaghi C., Nimis P.L. Lichens, air pollution and lung cancer. Nature 1997, 387:463-464.
10. Coppins B.J. Distribution patterns shown by epiphytic lichens in the British Isles. Lichenology: Progress and Problems 1976, 249-278. Academic Press, London. D.H. Brown, D.L. Hawksworth, R.H. Bailey (Eds.).
11. Coppins A.M., Coppins B.J. Indices of Ecological Continuity for Woodland Epiphytic Lichen Habitats in the British Isles 2002, British Lichen Society, London.
12. Dentener F., Drevet J., Lamarque J.F., Bey I., Eickhout B., Fiore A.M., Hauglustaine D., Horowitz L.W., Krol M., Kulshrestha U.C., Lawrence M., Galy-Lacaux C., Rast S., Shindell D., Stevenson D., Van Noije T., Atherton C., Bell N., Bergman D., Butler T., Cofala J., Collins B., Doherty R., Ellingsen K., Galloway J., Gauss M., Montanaro V., Müller J.F., Pitari G., Rodriguez J., Sanderson M., Solmon F., Strahan S., Schultz M., Sudo K., Szopa S., Wild O. Nitrogen and sulfur deposition on regional and global scales: a multimodel evaluation. Global Biogeochem. Cycl. 2006, 20:GB4003.
13. Eaton S., Ellis C.J. Local experimental growth rates respond to macroclimate for the lichen epiphyte Lobaria pulmonaria. Plant Ecol. Divers. 2012, 5:365-372.
14. Elith J., Graham C.H., Anderson R.P., Dudík M., Ferrier S., Guisan A., Hijmans R.J., Huettman F., Leathwick J.R., Lehmann A., Li J., Lohmann L.G., Loiselle B.A., Manion G., Moritz C., Nakamura M., Nakazawa Y., Overton J.M., Peterson A.T., Phillips S.J., Richardson K., Scachetti-Pereira R., Schapire R.E., Soberón J., Williams S., Wisz M.S., Zimmerman N.E. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 2006, 29:129-151.
15. Elith J., Phillips S.J., Hastie T., Dudík M., Chee Y.E., Yates C.J. A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists. Divers. Distrib. 2011, 17:43-57.
16. Ellis C.J. Lichen epiphyte diversity: a species, community and trait-based review. Perspect. Plant Ecol. Evol. Syst. 2012, 14:131-152.
17. Ellis C.J. A risk-based model of climate change threat: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability in the ecology of lichen epiphytes. Botany 2013, 91:1-11.
18. Ellis C.J., Coppins B.J. Quantifying the role of multiple landscape-scale drivers controlling epiphyte composition and richness in a conservation priority habitat (Juniper scrub). Biol. Conserv. 2009, 142:1291-1301.
19. Ellis C.J., Coppins B.J. Integrating multiple landscape-scale drivers in the lichen epiphyte response: climatic setting, pollution regime and woodland spatial-temporal structure. Divers. Distrib. 2010, 16:43-52.
20. Ellis C.J., Coppins B.J., Dawson T.P. Predicted response of the lichen epiphyte Lecanora populicola to climate change scenarios in a clean-air region of northern Britain. Biol. Conserv. 2007, 135:396-404.
21. Ellis C.J., Coppins B.J., Dawson T.P., Seaward M.R.D. Response of British lichens to climate change scenarios: trends and uncertainties in the projected impact for contrasting biogeographic groups. Biol. Conserv. 2007, 140:217-235.
22. Ellis C.J., Yahr R., Coppins B.J. Local extent of old-growth woodland modifies epiphyte response to climate change. J. Biogeogr. 2009, 36:302-313.
23. Ellis C.J., Coppins B.J., Eaton S., Simkin J. Implications of ash dieback for associated epiphytes. Conserv. Biol. 2013, 27:899-901.
24. Ellis C.J., Eaton S., Thedoropoulos M., Coppins B.J., Seaward M.R.D., Simkin J. Lichen Epiphyte Scenarios - A Toolkit of Climate and Woodland Change for the 21st Century 2014, Royal Botanic Garden, Edinburgh, .
25. ESRI, 2012. ArcMap v. 10.1. ESRI, Redlands, California.
26. Esseen P.-A. Host specificity and ecology of epiphytic macrolichens in some central Swedish spruce forests. Wahlenbergia 1981, 7:73-80.
27. Fielding A.H., Bell J.F. A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence methods. Environ. Conserv. 1997, 24:38-49.
28. Fowler D., O'Donoghue M., Muller J.B.A., Smith R.I., Dragosits U., Skiba U., Sutton M.A., Brimblecombe P. A chronology of nitrogen deposition in the UK between 1900 and 2004. Water Air Soil Pollut. 2004, 4:9-23.
29. Geiser L.H., Neitlich P.N. Air pollution and climate gradients in western Oregon and Washington indicated by epiphytic macrolichens. Environ. Pollut. 2007, 145:203-218.
30. Green T.G.A., Nash T.H., Lange O.L. Physiological ecology of carbon dioxide exchange. Lichen Biology 2010, 154-183. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. T.H. Nash (Ed.).
31. Hannah L., Carr J.L., Lankerani A. Human disturbance and natural habitat: a biome level analysis of a global data set. Biodivers. Conserv. 1995, 4:128-155.
32. Harris G.R., Sexton D.M.H., Booth B.B.B., Collins M., Murphy J.M., Webb M.J. Frequency distributions of transient regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles of general circulation model simulations. Clim. Dynam. 2006, 27:357-375.
33. Hawksworth D.L., Rose F. Qualitative scale for estimating sulphur dioxide air pollution in England and Wales using epiphytic lichens. Nature 1970, 227:145-148.
34. Hernandez P.A., Graham C.H., Master L.L., Albert D.L. The effect of sample size and species characteristics on performance of different species distribution modeling methods. Ecography 2006, 29:773-785.
35. Hill D.J. Experimental study of the effect of sulphite in lichens with reference to atmospheric pollution. New Phytol. 1971, 70:831-836.
36. Hoekstra J.M., Boucher T.M., Ricketts T.H., Roberts C. Confronting a biome crisis: global disparities of habitat loss and protection. Ecol. Lett. 2005, 8:23-29.
37. Jenkins G., Perry M., Prior J. The Climate of the United Kingdom and Recent Trends 2008, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.
38. Jenkins G., Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Lowe J.A., Jones P., Kilsby C. UK Climate Projections: Briefing Report 2010, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.
39. Jönsson M.T., Thor G. Estimating coextinction risks from epidemic tree death: affiliate lichen communities among diseased host tree populations of Fraxinus excelsior. PLoSOne 2012, 7:e45701.
40. Keon D.B., Muir P.S. Growth of Usnea longissima across a variety of habitats in the Oregon Coast Range. Bryologist 2002, 105:233-242.
41. Krebs C.J. Ecological Methodology 1999, Benjamin/Cummings, Menlo Park.
42. Lewis J.E.J., Ellis C.J. Taxon-compared with trait-based analysis of epiphytes, and the role of tree species and tree age in community composition. Plant Ecol. Divers. 2010, 3:203-210.
43. Lisewski V., Ellis C.J. Epiphyte sensitivity to a cross-scale interaction between habitat quality and macroclimate: an opportunity for range-edge conservation. Biodivers. Conserv. 2010, 19:3935-3949.
44. Mack R.N., Simberloff D., Lonsdale W.M., Evans H., Clout M., Bazzaz F.A. Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control. Ecol. Appl. 2000, 10:689-710.
45. Maskell L.C., Smart S.M., Bullock J.M., Thompson K., Stevens C.J. Nitrogen deposition causes widespread loss of species richness in British habitats. Global Change Biol. 2010, 16:671-679.
46. McCune B., Grace J.B. Analysis of Ecological Communities 2002, MjM Software Design, Gleneden Beach.
47. McCune B., Mefford M.J. PC-ORD v. 6: Multivariate Analysis of Ecological Data 2011, MjM Software, Gleneden Beach.
48. McCune B., Daey J., Peck J.E., Heiman K., Will-Wolf S. Regional gradients in lichen communities of the southeast United States. Bryologist 1997, 100:145-158.
49. Midgley G.F., Hannah L., Millar D., Rutherford M.C., Powrie L.W. Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2002, 11:445-451.
50. Mitchell R.J., Beaton K.J., Bellamy P.E., Broome A., Chetcuti J., Eaton S., Ellis C.J., Gimona A., Harmer R., Hester A.J., Hewison R.L., Hodgetts N.G., Iason G.R., Kerr G., Littlewood N.A., Newey S., Potts J.M., Pozsgai G., Ray D., Sim D.A., Stockan J.A., Taylor A.F.S., Woodward S. Ash dieback in the UK: a review of the ecological and conservation implications and potential management options. Biol. Conserv. 2014, 175:95-109.
51. Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Barnett D.N., Jones G.S., Webb M.J., Collins M., Stainforth D.A. Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations. Nature 2004, 430:768-772.
52. Nakićenović, N., Swart, R., 2000. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3rd Assessment Report, The Hague.
53. Ohlson M., Söderström L., Hörnberg G., Zackrisson O., Hermansson J. Habitat qualities versus long-term continuity as determinants of biodiversity in boreal old-growth swamp forests. Biol. Conserv. 1997, 81:221-231.
54. Ortega-Huerta M.A., Peterson A.T. Modeling ecological niches and predicting geographic distributions: a test of six presence-only methods. Rev. Mex. Biodivers. 2008, 79:205-216.
55. Palmqvist K., Dahlman L., Jonsson A., Nash T.H. The carbon economy of lichens. Lichen Biology 2010, 184-217. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. T.H. Nash (Ed.).
56. Pautasso M., Aas G., Queloz V., Holdenrieder O. European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) dieback - a conservation biology challenge. Biol. Conserv. 2013, 158:37-49.
57. Pearce J., Ferrier S. Evaluating the predictive performance of habitat models developed using logistic regression. Ecol. Model. 2000, 133:225-245.
58. Pearson R.G., Dawson T.P. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2003, 12:361-371.
59. Perry M., Hollis D. The generation of monthly gridded datasets for a range of climatic variables over the UK. Int. J. Climatol. 2005, 25:1041-1054.
60. Peterson G.D., Cumming G.S., Carpenter S.R. Scenario planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conserv. Biol. 2003, 17:358-366.
61. Peterson A.T., Soberón J., Pearson R.G., Anderson R.P., Martinez-Meyer E., Nakamura M., Araújo M.B. Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions 2011, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
62. Phillips S.J., Dudík M. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 2008, 31:161-175.
63. Phillips S.J., Anderson R.P., Schapire R.E. Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecol. Model. 2006, 190:231-259.
64. Phoenix G.K., Hicks W.K., Cinderby S., Kuylenstierna J.C.I., Stock W.D., Dentener F.J., Giller K.E., Austin A.T., Lefroy R.D.B., Gimeno B.S., Ashmore M.R., Ineson P. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition in world biodiversity hotspots: the need for a greater global perspective in assessing N deposition impacts. Global Change Biol. 2006, 12:470-476.
65. R Development Core Team, 2013. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria.
66. Roberts A.J., Russel C., Walker G.J., Kirby K.J. Regional variation in the origin, extent and composition of Scottish woodland. Bot. J. Scotl. 1992, 46:167-189.
67. Rodwell J.S. British plant communities. Woodlands and Scrub 1991, vol. 1. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
68. Rose F. Lichenological indicators of age and environmental continuity in woodlands. Lichenology: Progress and Problems 1976, 279-307. Academic Press, London and New York. D.H. Brown, D.L. Hawksworth, R.H. Bailey (Eds.).
69. RoTAP Review of Transboundary Air Pollution: Acidification, Eutrophication, Ground Level Ozone and Heavy Metals in the UK 2012, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Penicuik.
70. Sala O.E., Chapin F.S., Armesto J.J., Berlow E., Bloomfield J., Dirzo R., Huber-Sanwald E., Huenneke L.F., Jackson R.B., Kinzig A., Leemans R., Lodge D.M., Mooney H.A., Oesterheld M., Poff N.L., Sykes M.T., Walker B.H., Walker M., Wall D.H. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science 2000, 287:1770-1774.
71. Sansum P. Argyll oakwoods: use and ecological change, 1000 to 2000 AD - a palynological-historical investigation. Bot. J. Scotl. 2005, 57:83-97.
72. Scheidegger C., Groner U., Keller C., Stofer S. Biodiversity assessment tools - lichens. Monitoring with Lichens - Monitoring Lichens 2002, 359-365. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht. P.L. Nimis, C. Scheidegger, P.A. Wolseley (Eds.).
73. Schmitt C.K., Slack N.G. Host specificity of epiphytic lichens and bryophytes: a comparison of the Adirondack Mountains (New York) and the southern Blue Ridge Mountains (North Carolina). Bryologist 1990, 93:257-274.
74. Seaward M.R.D. Time-space analysis of the British lichen flora, with particular reference to air quality surveys. Folia Crypt. Estonica 1998, 32:85-96.
75. Sexton D.M.H., Harris G.R., Murphy J.M. UKCP09: Spatially Coherent Projections 2010, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter.
76. Simkin J. The BLS database project. Brit. Lichen Soc. Bull. 2012, 111:8-14.
77. Smout T.C. Oak as a commercial crop in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Bot. J. Scotl. 2005, 57:107-114.
78. Song L., Liu W.-Y., Nadkarni N.M. Response of non-vascular epiphytes to simulated climate change in a montane moist evergreen broad-leaved forest in southwest China. Biol. Conserv. 2012, 152:127-135.
79. Spencer J.W., Kirby K.J. An inventory of ancient woodland for England and Wales. Biol. Conserv. 1992, 62:77-93.
80. Swets J.A. Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems. Science 1988, 240:1285-1293.
81. Thomas C.D., Cameron A., Green R.E., Bakkenes M., Beaumont L.J., Collingham Y.C., Erasmus B.F.N., de Siqueira M.F., Grainger A., Hannah L., Hughes L., Huntley B., van Jaarsveld A.S., Midgley G.F., Miles L., Ortega-Huerta M.A., Townsend Peterson A., Phillips O.L., Williams S.E. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 2004, 427:145-148.
82. Thor G., Johansson P., Jönsson M.T. Lichen diversity and red-listed lichen species relationships with tree species and diameter in wooded meadows. Biodivers. Conserv. 2010, 19:2307-2328.
83. Tibell L. Crustose lichens as indicators of forest continuity in boreal coniferous forests. Nord. J. Bot. 1992, 12:427-450.
84. Tipping R., Buchanan J., Davies A., Tisdall E. Woodland biodiversity, palaeo-human ecology and some implications for conservation management. J. Biogeogr. 1999, 26:33-43.
85. van Herk C.M. Mapping of ammonia pollution with epiphytic lichens in the Netherlands. Lichenologist 1999, 31:9-20.
86. Vestreng V., Myhre G., Fagerli H., Reis S., Tarrasón L. Twenty-five years of continuous sulphur dioxide emission reduction in Europe. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2007, 7:3663-3681.
87. Whittet R., Ellis C.J. Critical tests for lichen indicators of woodland ecological continuity. Biol. Conserv. 2013, 168:19-23.