Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

Science

Volumn 287, Issue 5459, 2000, Pages 1770-1774

  Sala, Osvaldo E ^a   Chapin III, F Stuart ^b   Armesto, Juan J ^c   Berlow, Eric ^d   Bloomfield, Janine ^e   Dirzo, Rodolfo ^f   Huber Sanwald, Elisabeth ^g   Huenneke, Laura F ^h   Jackson, Robert B ⁱ   Kinzig, Ann ^j   Leemans, Rik ^k   Lodge, David M ^l   Mooney, Harold A ^m   Oesterheld, Martin ^a   Poff, N LeRoy ⁿ   Sykes, Martin T ^o   Walker, Brian H ^p   Walker, Marilyn ^b   Wall, Diana H ⁿ  

^a UNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES   (Argentina)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF CHILE   (Chile)

^d UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^e ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE FUND   (United States)

^f INSTITUTO DE ECOLOGÍA   (Mexico)

^g TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH   (Germany)

^h NEW MEXICO STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

ⁱ DUKE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^j ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^k NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT   (Netherlands)

^l UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME   (United States)

^m STANFORD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

ⁿ Veterinary Dentistry and Oral Surgery   (United States)

^o LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^p CSIRO   (Australia)

more..

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CARBON DIOXIDE; FRESH WATER; NITROGEN;

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE CHANGE; LAND USE; TEMPORAL VARIATION;

ATMOSPHERE; BIODIVERSITY; CLIMATE; ECOSYSTEM; FUTUROLOGY; HUMAN; LAND USE; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; VEGETATION;

AGRICULTURE; ANIMALS; ATMOSPHERE; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE; ECOSYSTEM; FRESH WATER; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; NITROGEN;

EID: 0034629324     PISSN: 00368075     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1126/science.287.5459.1770     Document Type: Review

References (40)

1. S. I. Pimm, G. J. Russell, J. L Gittelman, T. M. Brooks, Science 269, 347 (1995).
2. We define change in biodiversity at the biome level as the changes in number and relative abundance of species that occur naturally in that biome.
3. P. M. Vitousek, Ecology 75, 1861 (1994).
4. F. S. Chapin et al., Science 277, 500 (1997).
5. D. Tilman et al. Science 277, 1300 (1997).
6. G. C. Daily, Ed., Nature's Services. Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems (Island Press, Washington, DC, 1997).
7. R. Costanza et al., Nature 387, 253 (1997).
8. B. H. Walker and W. Steffen, Eds., Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1996).
9. A. Kattenberg et al., in Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1996), pp. 285.
10. D. S. Wilcove, D. Rothstein, J. Dubow, A. Phillips, E. Losos, BioScience 48, 607 (1998).
11. T. D. Sisk, A. E. Launer, K. R. Switky, P. R. Ehrlich, BioScience 44, 592 (1994).
12. A. Haxeltine and I. C. Prentice, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 693 (1996).
13. J. Alcamo, Image 2: Integrated Modeling of Global Climate Change (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, Netherlands, 1994).
14. R. C. Bailey, Ecoregions: The Ecosystem Geography of the Oceans and Continents (Springer-Verlag, New York, 1998).
15. I. Y. Fung, C. J. Tucker, K. C. Prentice, J. Geophys. Res. 92D, 2999 (1987).
16. J. A. Drake et al., Biological Invasions: A Global Perspective (Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1989), vol. 37.
17. O. E. Sala, in Global Biodiversity Assessment, Section 5, H. A. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, R. Dirzo, O. E. Sala, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1995).
18. J. M. Anderson, in Global Biodiversity Assessment: Section 6, H. A. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, R. Dirzo, O. E. Sala, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1995), pp. 406-412.
19. H. A. Mooney, B. C. Drake, R. J. Luxmoore, W. C. Oechel, L. F. Pitelka, BioScience 41, 96 (1991).
20. R. B. Jackson, O. E. Sala, C. B. Field, H. A. Mooney, Oecologia 98, 257 (1994).
21. H. A. Mooney et al., in The Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed Ecosystems: A Synthesis of GCTE and Related Research, B. H. Walker, W. L. Steffen, J. Canadell, J. S. I. Ingram, Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1999), pp. 141-189.
22. D. Tilman, Ecology. 74, 2179 (1993).
23. P. M. Vitousek, Ecology 65, 285 (1984).
24. W. D. Billings, BioScience 23, 697 (1973).
25. M. Rejmánek, in Biodiversity and Ecosystem Processes in Tropical Forests, G. H. Orians, R. Dirzo, J. H. Cushman, Eds. (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1996), pp. 153-172.
26. H. A. Mooney and E. L. Dunn, Evolution 24, 292 (1970).
27. P. M. Vitousek, L Loope, H. Adsersen, Eds., Islands: Biological Diversity and Ecosystem Function (Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1995).
28. W. Scott Overton, in Ecosystem Modeling in Theory and Practice: An Introduction with Case Studies, C. A. S. Hall and J. W. Day, Eds. (Wiley, New York, 1977), pp. 49-74.
29. Committee on Inland Aquatic Ecosystems, Water and Science Technology Board, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, Freshwater Ecosystems (National Academy Press, Washington, DC, 1996).
30. S. L. Postel, G. C. Daily, P. R. Ehrlich, Science 271, 785 (1996).
31. D. M. Lodge et al., Aust. J. Ecol. 23, 53 (1998).
32. D. W. Schindler, BioScience 46, 157 (1998).
33. A. Ricciardi and J. Rasmussen, Conserv. Biol. 13, 1220 (1999).
34. J. S. Harding, E. F. Benfield, P. V. Bolstad, G. S. Helfman, E. B. D. Jones, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 95, 14843 (1998).
35. B. D. Richter, D. P. Braun, M. A. Mendelson, L. L. Master, Conserv. Biol. 11, 1081 (1997).
36. M. W. Oswood, A. M. Milner, J. G. Irons, in Global Climate Change and Freshwater Ecosystems, P. Firth and S. G. Fischer, Eds. (Springer-Verlag, New York, 1992), pp. 192-210.
37. N. L. Poff et al., BioScience 47, 769 (1997).
38. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 1996).
39. F. S. Chapin III, O. E. Sala, E. Huber-Sanwald, Eds., Future Scenarios of Global Biodiversity (Springer-Verlag, New York, in press).
40. Supported by University of California, Santa Barbara, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research, National Science Foundation OCE-9634876, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas, University of Buenos Aires, and Fondo para la Investigación Cientifica y Tecnológica de la Agenda Nacional de Promoción Cientifica y Tecnológica. This exercise stems from an activity of the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) core project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). We thank A. T. Austin, D. Tilman, and W. Reid for their useful suggestions. A. E. Sala and J. P. Guerschman provided valuable assistance.