The psychology of bayesian reasoning

Frontiers in Psychology

Volumn 5, Issue SEP, 2014, Pages

  Mandel, David R ^a  

^a YORK UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

Author keywords

Bayesian reasoning; Belief revision; Human judgment; Psychological methods; Subjective probability

Indexed keywords

EID: 84907220160     PISSN: None     EISSN: 16641078     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2014.01144     Document Type: Note

References (38)

1. Ayal, S., and Beyth-Marom, R. (2014). The effects of mental steps and compatibility on Bayesian reasoning. Judgm. Decis. Mak. 9, 226-242.
2. Baratgin, J., and Politzer, G. (2006). Is the mind Bayesian? The case for agnosticism. Mind & Society 5, 1-38.
3. Barbey, A. K., and Sloman, S. A. (2007). Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes. Behav. Brain Sci. 30, 241-297.
4. Cosmides, L., and Tooby, J. (1996). Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty. Cogn. 58, 1-73.
5. Eddy, D. M. (1982). "Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities," in Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ed. D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (New York: Cambridge University Press), 249-67.
6. Edwards, W. (1968). "Conservatism in human information processing," in Formal Representation of Human Judgment, ed. B. Kleinmuntz (New York: Wiley), 17-52.
7. Edwards W., Lindman, H., and Savage, L. J. (1963). Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychol. Rev. 70, 193-242.
8. Elga, A. (2000). Self-locating belief and the sleeping Beauty problem. Analysis 60, 143-147.
9. Finetti, B. de (1964). "Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources," in Studies in Subjective Probability, ed. H. E. Kyburg and H. E. Smokler (New York, Wiley), 53-118 (1st ed., 1937).
10. Finetti, B. de (1972). "Probability, statistics and induction: their relationship according to the various points of view," in Probability, Induction and Statistics. The Art of Guessing, ed. B. de Finetti (London: Wiley), 141-228 (1st ed., 1959).
11. Gigerenzer, G., and Hoffrage, U. (1995). How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats. Psychol. Rev. 102, 684-704.
12. Girotto, V., and Gonzalez, M. (2008). Children's understanding of posterior probability. Cogn. 106, 325-344.
13. Gluck, M. A., and Bower, G. H. (1988). From conditioning to category learning: An adaptive network model. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 117, 227-247.
14. Griffiths, T. L., and Tennenbaum, J. B. (2006). Optimal predictions in everyday cognition. Psychol. Sci. 17, 767-773.
15. Hoffrage, U., Gigerenzer, G., Krauss, S., and Martignon, L. (2002). Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are not. Cogn. 84, 343-352.
16. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cogn. Psychol. 3, 430-454.
17. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychol. Rev. 80, 237-251.
18. Kao, S.-F., and Wasserman, E. A. (1993). Assessment of an information integration account of contingency judgment with examination of subjective cell importance and method of information presentation. J. Exp. Psychol. Learn. Mem. Cogn. 19, 1363-1386.
19. Karvetski, C. W., Olson, K. C., Mandel, D. R., and Twardy, C. R. (2013). Probabilistic coherence weighting for optimizing expert forecasts. Decis. Anal. 10, 305-326.
20. Koehler, J. J. (1996). The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative and methodologica l challenges. Behav. Brain Sci. 19, 1-53.
21. Krauss, S., and Wang, X. T. (2003). The psychology of the Monty Hall Problem: Discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 132, 3-22.
22. Levi, I. (1983). Who commits the base rates fallacy. Behav. Brain. Sci. 6, 502-506.
23. Lewis, D. (1976). Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philos. Rev. LXXXV, 297-315.
24. Lewis, D. (2001). Sleeping Beauty: Reply to Elga. Analysis 61, 171-176.
25. Mandel, D. R. (2005). Are risk assessments of a terrorist attack coherent? J. Exp. Psychol. Appl. 11, 277-288.
26. Mandel, D. R., and Lehman, D. R. (1998). Integration of contingency information in judgments of cause, covariation, and probability. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 127, 269-285.
27. Mandel, D. R., and Vartanian, O. (2009). Weighting of contingency information in causal judgment: Evidence of hypothesis dependence and use of a positive-test strategy. Q. J. Exp. Psychol. 62, 2388-2408.
28. Niiniluoto, I. (1981). Cohen versus Bayesianism. Behav. Brain. Sci. 4, 349.
29. Sedlmeier, P., and Gigerenzer, G. (2001). Teaching Bayesian reasoning in less than two hours. J. Exp. Psychol. Gen. 130, 380-400.
30. Seidenfeld T. (1979). Why I am not an objective Bayesian: some reflections prompted by Rosenkrantz. Theory Decis. 11, 413-440.
31. Shanks, D. R. (1990). Connectionism and the learning of probabilistic concepts. Q. J. Exp. Psychol. 42A, 209-237.
32. Sloman, S. A., Over, D. E., Slovak, L., and Stibel, J. M. (2003). Frequency illusions and other fallacies. Organ. Behav. Hum. Decis. Process. 91:296-309.
33. Slovic, P. and Lichtenstein, S. (1971). Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment. Organ. Behav. Hum. Perform. 6, 649-744.
34. Taylor, S. E., and Brown, J. D. (1988). Illusion and well-being: A social psychological perspective on mental health. Psychol. Bull. 103, 193-210.
35. Villejoubert, G., and Mandel, D. R. (2002). The inverse fallacy: An account of deviations from Bayes's theorem and the additivity principle. Mem. Cogn. 30, 171-178.
36. Walliser B., and Zwirn, D. (2002). Can Bayes' rule be justified by cognitive rationality principles? Theory Decis. 53, 95-135.
37. Weinstein, N. D. (1989). Optimistic biases about personal risks. Science 264, 1232-1233.
38. Williams, J. J., and Mandel, D. R. (2007). "Do evaluation frames improve the quality of conditional probability judgment?," in Proceedings of the 29th Annual Meeting of the Cognitive Science Society, ed. D. S. McNamara and J. G. Trafton (Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum), 1653-1658.