Integration of Contingency Information in Judgments of Cause, Covariation, and Probability

Journal of Experimental Psychology: General

Volumn 127, Issue 3, 1998, Pages 269-285

  Mandel, David R ^b   Lehman, Darrin R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA   (Canada)

^b UNIVERSITY OF HERTFORDSHIRE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 0032339849     PISSN: 00963445     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/0096-3445.127.3.269     Document Type: Article

References (78)

1. Allan, L. G. (1980). A note on measurement of contingency between two binary variables in judgment tasks. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 15, 147-149.
2. Allan, L. G. (1993). Human contingency judgments: Rule based or associative? Psychological Bulletin, 114, 435-448.
3. Allan, L. G., & Jenkins, H. M. (1980). The judgment of contingency and the nature of response alternatives. Canadian Journal of Psychology, 34, 1-11.
4. Allan, L. G., & Jenkins, H. M. (1983). The effect of representations of binary variables on judgment of influence. Learning and Motivation, 14, 381-405.
5. Alloy, L. B., & Tabachnik, N. (1984). Assessment of covariation by humans and animals: The joint influence of prior expectations and current situational information. Psychological Review, 91, 112-149.
6. Anderson, J. R., & Sheu, C.-F. (1995). Causal inferences as perceptual judgments. Memory & Cognition, 23, 510-524.
7. Arkes, H. R. (1991). Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing. Psychological Bulletin, 110, 486-498.
8. Banks, W. P., & Hill, D. K. (1974). The apparent magnitude of number scaled by random production. Journal of Experimental Psychology Monograph, 102(2), 353-376.
9. Bargh, J. A. (1997). The automaticity of everyday life. In R. S. Wyer, Jr. (Ed.), Advances in social cognition (Vol. 10, pp. 1-61). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
10. Beyth-Marom, R. (1982). Perception of correlation reexamined. Memory & Cognition, 10, 511-519.
11. Busemeyer, J. R. (1991). Intuitive statistical estimation. In N. H. Anderson (Ed.), Contributions to information integration theory (Vol. 1, pp. 187-215). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
12. Cheng, P. W. (1997). From covariation to causation: A causal power theory. Psychological Review, 104, 367-405.
13. Cheng, P. W., & Holyoak, K. J. (1995). Complex adaptive systems as intuitive statisticians: Causality, contingency, and prediction. In J.-A. Meyer & H. Roitblat (Eds.), Comparative approaches to cognition (pp. 271-302). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
14. Cheng, P. W., & Novick, L. R. (1992). Covariation in natural causal induction. Psychological Review, 99, 365-382.
15. Clark, H. H., & Clark, E. V. (1977). Psychology and language. New York: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich.
16. Cracker, J. (1981). Judgment of covariation by social perceivers. Psychological Bulletin, 90, 272-292.
17. Crocker, J. (1982). Biased questions in judgment of covariation studies. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 8, 214-220.
18. Cummins, D. D., Lubart, T., Alksnis, O., & Rist, R. (1991). Conditional reasoning and causation. Memory & Cognition, 19, 274-282.
19. Einhorn, H. J., & Hogarth, R. M. (1986). Judging probable cause. Psychological Bulletin, 99, 3-19.
20. Erlick, D. E., & Mills, R. G. (1967). Perceptual quantification of conditional dependency. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 43, 9-14.
21. Fazio, R. H., Sherman, S. J., & Herr, P. M. (1982). The feature-positive effect in the self-perception process: Does not doing matter as much as doing? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 42, 404-411.
22. Fisher, R. A. (1921). On the probable error of a coefficient of correlation deduced from a small sample. Metron, 1, 3-32.
23. Fiske, S. T., & Taylor, S. E. (1991). Social cognition (2nd ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
24. Friedrich, J. (1993). Primary error detection and minimization (PEDMIN) strategies in social cognition: A reinterpretation of confirmation bias phenomena. Psychological Review, 100, 298-319.
25. Funder, D. C. (1987). Errors and mistakes: Evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. Psychological Bulletin, 101, 75-90.
26. Goldberg, L. (1968). Simple models or simple processes? American Psychologist, 23, 483-496.
27. Halberstadt, N., & Kareev, Y. (1995). Transitions between modes of inquiry in a rule discovery task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 48A, 280-295.
28. Harkness, A. R., DeBono, K. G., & Borgida, E. (1985). Personal involvement and strategies for making contingency judgments: A stake in the dating game makes a difference. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 49, 22-32.
29. Hovland, C. L. (1952). A "communication analysis" of concept learning. Psychological Review, 59, 461-472.
30. Hovland, C. L., & Weiss, W. (1953). Transmission of information concerning concepts through positive and negative instances. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 45, 175-182.
31. Inhelder, P., & Piaget, J. (1958). The growth of logical thinking from childhood to adolescence. New York: Basic Books.
32. Jenkins, H. M., & Ward, W. C. (1965). Judgment of contingency between responses and outcomes. Psychological Monographs, 79, 1-17.
33. Jennings, D. L., Amabile, T. M., & Ross, L. (1982). Informal covariation assessment: Data-based versus theory-based judgments. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 211-230). New York: Cambridge University Press.
34. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgement of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 237-251.
35. Kao, S.-F., & Wasserman, E. A. (1993). Assessment of an information integration account of contingency judgment with examination of subjective cell importance and method of information presentation. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 19, 1363-1386.
36. Kareev, Y. (1995). Positive bias in the perception of covariation. Psychological Review, 102, 490-502.
37. Kelley, H. H. (1967). Attribution theory in social psychology. In D. Levine (Ed.), Nebraska symposium on motivation (Vol. 15, pp. 192-238). Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press.
38. Killeen, P. R. (1981). Learning as causal inference. In M. L. Commons & J. A. Nevin (Eds.), Quantitative analyses of behavior: Vol. 1. Discriminative properties of reinforcement schedules (pp. 89-112). Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
39. Klayman, J., & Ha, Y.-W. (1987). Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing. Psychological Review, 94, 211-228.
40. Klayman, J., & Ha, Y.-W. (1989). Hypothesis testing in rule discovery: Strategy, structure, and content. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 15, 596-604.
41. Levin, I. P., Wasserman, E. A., & Kao, S.-F. (1993). Multiple methods for examining biased information use in contingency judgments. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 55, 228-250.
42. Lipe, M. G. (1990). A lens model analysis of covariation research. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 3, 47-59.
43. Mandel, D. R., & Lehman, D. R. (1996). Counterfactual thinking and ascriptions of cause and preventability. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 450-463.
44. McGill, A. L., & Klein, J. G. (1993). Contrastive and counterfactual thinking in causal judgment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 64, 897-905.
45. McGill, A. L., & Klein, J. G. (1995). Counterfactual and contrastive reasoning in explanations for performance: Implications for gender bias. In N. J. Roese & J. M. Olson (Eds.), What might have been: The social psychology of counterfactual thinking (pp. 333-352). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
46. McGuire, W. J., & McGuire, C. V. (1992). Cognitive-versus-affective positivity asymmetries in thought systems. European Journal of Social Psychology, 22, 571-591.
47. Melz, E. R., Cheng, P. W., Holyoak, K. J., & Waldmann, M. R. (1993). Cue competition in human categorization: Contingency or the Rescorla-Wagner learning rule? Comment on Shanks (1991). Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 19, 1398-1410.
48. Morris, W. M., & Larrick, R. (1995). When one cause casts doubt on another: A normative analysis of discounting in causal attribution. Psychological Review, 102, 331-355.
49. Moyer, R. S., & Landauer, T. K. (1967). The time required for judgments of numerical inequality. Nature, 215, 1519-1520.
50. Newman, J., Wolff, W. T., & Hearst, E. (1980). The feature-positive effect in adult human subjects. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 630-650.
51. Nisbett, R. E., & Ross, L. (1980). Human inference: Strategies and shortcomings of social judgment. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
52. Nisbett, R. E., & Wilson, T. D. (1977). Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports of mental processes. Psychological Review, 84, 231-259.
53. Peterson, C. R., & Beach, L. R. (1967). Man as an intuitive statistician. Psychological Bulletin, 68, 29-46.
54. Rescorla, R. A., & Wagner, A. R. (1972). A theory of Pavlovian conditioning: Variations in the effectiveness of reinforcement and nonreinforcement. In A. H. Black & W. F. Prokasy (Eds.), Classical conditioning II: Current theory and research (pp. 64-99). New York: Appleton-Century-Crofts.
55. Rule, S. J. (1969). Equal discriminability scale of number. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 79, 35-38.
56. Salmon, W. C. (1965). The status of prior probabilities in statistical explanation. Philosophy of Science, 32, 137-146.
57. Schustack, M. W., & Sternberg, R. J. (1981). Evaluation of evidence in causal inference. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 110, 101-120.
58. Shaklee, H. (1983). Human covariation judgment: Accuracy and strategy. Learning and Motivation, 14, 433-448.
59. Shaklee, H., & Elek, S. (1988). Cause and covariate: Development of two related concepts. Cognitive Development, 3, 1-13.
60. Shaklee, H., & Hall, L. (1983). Methods of assessing strategies for judging covariation between events. Journal of Educational Psychology, 75, 583-594.
61. Shaklee, H., & Mims, M. (1982). Sources of error in judging event covariations: Effects of memory demands. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2, 208-224.
62. Shaklee, H., & Tucker, D. (1980). A rule analysis for judgments of covariation between events. Memory & Cognition, 8, 459-467.
63. Shaklee, H., & Wasserman, E. A. (1986). Judging interevent contingencies: Being right for the wrong reasons. Bulletin of the Psychonomic Society, 24, 91-94.
64. Shanks, D. R. (1991). Categorization by a connectionist network. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 17, 433-443.
65. Shanks, D. R., & Dickinson, A. (1987). Associative accounts of causality judgment. In G. H. Bower (Ed.), The psychology of learning and motivation (Vol. 21, pp. 229-261). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.
66. Smedslund, J. (1963). The concept of correlation in adults. Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 4, 165-173.
67. Stone, G. O., & Van Orden, G. C. (1994). Building a resonance framework for word recognition using design and system principles. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 20, 1248-1268.
68. Suppes, P. (1970). A probabilistic theory of causality. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
69. Toffler, A. (1990). Power shift: Knowledge, wealth, and violence at the edge of the 21st century. New York: Bantam Books.
70. Trolier, T. K., & Hamilton, D. L. (1986). Variables influencing judgments of correlational relations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 50, 879-888.
71. Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1980). Causal schemas in judgments under uncertainty. In M. Fishbein (Ed.), Progress in social psychology (Vol. 1, pp. 49-72). Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
72. Ward, W. C., & Jenkins, H. M. (1965). The display of information and the judgment of contingency. Canadian Journal of Psychology, 79, 231-241.
73. Wason, P. C. (1959). The processing of positive and negative information. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 11, 92-107.
74. Wason, P. C. (1960). On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 32, 129-140.
75. Wasserman, E. A., Dorner, W. W., & Kao, S.-F. (1990). Contributions of specific cell information to judgments of interevent contingency. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 16, 509-521.
76. Wasserman, E. A., Elek, S. M., Chatlosh, D. L., & Baker, A. G. (1993). Rating causal relations: The role of probability in judgments of response-outcome contingency. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 19, 174-188.
77. Wasserman, E. A., & Shaklee, H. (1984). Judging response-outcome relations: The role of response-outcome contingency, outcome probability, and method of information presentation. Memory & Cognition, 12, 270-286.
78. Yates, J. F., & Curley, S. P. (1986). Contingency judgment: Primacy effects and attention decrement. Acta Psychologica, 62, 293-302.