Second thoughts about expert political judgment: Reply to the symposium

Critical Review

Volumn 22, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 467-488

  Tetlock, Philip E ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 80052629649     PISSN: 08913811     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/08913811.2010.542634     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2009. The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future. New York: Random House.
2. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 2010. "Judging Judgment." Critical Review 22 (4): 355 - 88.
3. Buturovic, Zeljka. 2010. "Putting Political Experts to the Test." Critical Review 22 (4): 389 - 96.
4. Caplan, Bryan. 2007. "Have the Experts Been Weighed, Measured, and Found Wanting?" Critical Review 19 (1): 81 - 91.
5. Dawes, Robyn M., David Faust, and Paul E. Meehl 1989. "Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment." Science 243: 1668 - 74.
6. Fuller, Steve. 2010. "Thinking the Unthinkable as a Radical Scientific Project." Critical Review 22 (4): 397 - 413.
7. Gawande, Atul. 2010. The checklist Manifesto. London: Profile Books.
8. Gilovich, Thomas, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman. 2002. Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment. New York: Cambridge University Press.
9. Ionnidis, John. 2005. "Why Most Published Research Findings Are False." PLoS Med 2 (8): e124. doi:doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
10. Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
11. Jervis, Robert. 2010. Why Intelligence Fails: Lessons From the Iranian Revolution and the Iraq War. Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.
12. Keil, Frank. 2010. "When and Why do Hedgehogs Differ?" Critical Review 22 (4): 415 - 26.
13. Krause, Elliott A. 1999. Death of the Guilds: Professions, States, and the Advance of Capitalism, 1930 to the Present. New Haven: Yale University Press.
14. Lustick, Ian S. 2010. "Tetlock and Counterfactuals: Saving Methodological Ambition from Empirical Findings." Critical Review 22 (4): 427 - 47.
15. Mellers, Barbara, Ralph Hertwig, and Daniel Kahneman 2001. "Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration." Psychological Science 12: 269 - 75.
16. Neustadt, Richard E., and Ernest R. May. 1986. Thinking in Time. New York: Free Press.
17. Quirk, Paul J. "The Trouble with Experts." Critical Review 22 (4): 449 - 65
18. Redding, Richard E. 2001. "Sociopolitical Diversity in Psychology: The Case for Pluralism." American Psychologist 56: 205 - 15.
19. Surowiecki, James. 2004. The Wisdom of the Crowd. Boston, Mass.: Little, Brown.
20. Taleb, Nassim N. 2006. The Black Swan. New York: Random House.
21. Tetlock, Philip E. 2002. "Social-Functionalist Frameworks for Judgment and Choice: The Intuitive Politician, Theologian, and Prosecutor. Psychological Review 109: 451 - 72.
22. Tetlock, Philip E. 2005. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Princeton: Princeton University Press.
23. Tetlock, Philip E. 2009. "Playing Tarot on K Street." The National Interest (September-October): 57 - 67.
24. Tetlock, Philip E., and Aaron Belkin 1996. Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
25. Tetlock Philip E., and Mellers B. 2011. "Structuring Accountability Systems in Organizations: Key Trade-Offs and Critical Unknowns." In Behind the Science of Intelligence Analysis, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press.
26. Tetlock, Philip E., Richard Ned Lebow, and Geoffrey Parker 2006. Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
27. Tversky, Amos, and Kahneman, Daniel. 1983. "Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy and Probability Judgment." Psychological Review 90: 293 - 315.
28. Wilensky, Harold L. 1964. "The Professionalization of Everyone?" The American Journal of Sociology 70 (2) (September): 137 - 58.