Uneven futures of human lifespans: Reckonings from gompertz mortality rates, climate change, and air pollution

Gerontology

Volumn 60, Issue 2, 2014, Pages 183-188

  Finch, Caleb E ^a   Beltrán Sánchez, Hiram ^a,b   Crimmins, Eileen M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

Author keywords

Air pollution; Global warming; Gompertz model; Infections; Lifespan; Minimum mortality

Indexed keywords

FOSSIL FUEL; OZONE; GLUTAMATE RECEPTOR; NATURAL GAS;

ADULT; AGED; AGING; AIR POLLUTION; BURN; CLIMATE CHANGE; FEMALE; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; HUMAN; LIFESPAN; LONGEVITY; MALE; MORTALITY; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; SOCIOECONOMICS; VERY ELDERLY; ADAPTIVE IMMUNITY; AIR CONDITIONING; ALZHEIMER DISEASE; ATHEROSCLEROSIS; COGNITIVE DEFECT; ENERGY RESOURCE; GOMPERTZ MORTALITY; GREENHOUSE GAS; LIFE EXPECTANCY; MALIGNANT NEOPLASTIC DISEASE; META ANALYSIS (TOPIC); SEX DIFFERENCE;

ADULT; AGED; AGED, 80 AND OVER; AGING; AIR POLLUTION; CLIMATE CHANGE; COHORT STUDIES; FEMALE; HUMANS; LIFE EXPECTANCY; LONGEVITY; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MORTALITY;

EID: 84896313809     PISSN: 0304324X     EISSN: 14230003     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1159/000357672     Document Type: Review

References (52)

1. Oeppen J, Vaupel JW: Demography. Broken limits to life expectancy. Science 2002; 296: 1029-1031
2. Finch CE, Crimmins EM: Response to comment on ?Inflammmatory exposure and historical changes in human life-spans?. Science 2005; 308: 1743, author reply 1743
3. Advancing the Science of Climate Change. Washington, National Academies Press, 2010
4. Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change. Washington, National Academies Press, 2010
5. Finch CE, Crimmins EM: Inflammatory exposure and historical changes in human lifespans. Science 2004; 305: 1736-1739
6. Crimmins EM, Finch CE: Infection, inflammation, height, and longevity. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2006; 103: 498-503
7. Fogel RW: The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700-2100: Europe, America, and the Third World. New York, Cambridge University Press, 2004
8. Crimmins EM, Drevenstedt G, Finch CE: Evolution of the human mortality curve: Changes in the age of minimum mortality (abstract). Popul Assoc Am 2007. http://paa2007. princeton.edu
9. Beltrán-Sánchez H, Crimmins EM, Finch CE: Early cohort mortality predicts the cohort rate of aging: An historical analysis. J Dev Orig Adult Health Dis 2012; 3: 380-386
10. Strehler BL, Mildvan AS: General theory of mortality and aging. Science 1960; 132: 14-21
11. Vaupel JW, Carey JR, Christensen K, Johnson TE, Yashin AI, Holm NV, Iachine IA, Kannisto V, Khazaeli AA, Liedo P, Longo VD, Zeng Y, Manton KG, Curtsinger JW: Biodemographic trajectories of longevity. Science 1998; 280: 855-860
12. Finch CE, Pike MC: Maximum lifespan predictions from the Gompertz mortality model. J Gerontol 1996; 51:B183-B194
13. Austad SN: Concepts and theories of aging; in Masoro EJ, Austad SN (eds): Handbook of the Biology of Aging. San Diego, Academic Press, 2001, pp 3-22
14. Gampe J: Human mortality beyond age 110; in Maier H, Gampe J, Jeune B, Robine J-M, Vaupel JW (eds): Supercentenarians. Berlin, Springer 2010, pp 219-230
15. Gavrilov LA, Gavrilova NS: Mortality measurement at advanced ages: A study of the social security administration death master file. N Am Actuar J 2011; 15: 432-447
16. Robine J-M, Vaupel JW: Emergence of supercentenarians in low-mortality countries. N Am Actuar J 2002; 6: 54-63
17. Fries JF: Aging, natural death, and the compression of morbidity. N Engl J Med 1980; 303: 130-135
18. Olshansky SJ, Carnes BA, Cassel C: In search of Methuselah: Estimating the upper limits to human longevity. Science 1990; 250: 634-640
19. Christensen K, Doblhammer G, Rau R, Vaupel JW: Ageing populations: The challenges ahead. Lancet 2009; 374: 1196-1208
20. Bell FC, Miller ML: Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2100. Actuarial Study No. 120. Washington, Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, 2005
21. Goldman DP, Cutler D, Rowe JW, Michaud PC, Sullivan J, Peneva D, Olshansky SJ: Substantial health and economic returns from delayed aging may warrant a new focus for medical research. Health Aff (Millwood) 2013; 32: 1698-1705
22. de Grey AD: A divide-And-conquer assault on aging: Mainstream at last. Rejuvenation Res 2013; 16: 257-258
23. Flurkey K, Papaconstantinou J, Miller RA, Harrison DE: Lifespan extension and delayed immune and collagen aging in mutant mice with defects in growth hormone production. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2001; 98: 6736-6741
24. Schriner SE, Linford NJ, Martin GM, Treuting P, Ogburn CE, Emond M, Coskun PE, Ladiges W, Wolf N, Van Remmen H, Wallace DC, Rabinovitch PS: Extension of murine life span by overexpression of catalase targeted to mitochondria. Science 2005; 308: 1909-1911
25. Mao P, Manczak M, Calkins MJ, Truong Q, Reddy TP, Reddy AP, Shirendeb U, Lo HH, Rabinovitch PS, Reddy PH: Mitochondriatargeted catalase reduces abnormal APP processing, amyloid ? production and BACE1 in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease: Implications for neuroprotection and lifespan extension. Hum Mol Genet 2012; 21: 2973-2990
26. Guevara-Aguirre J, Balasubramanian P, Guevara-Aguirre M, Wei M, Madia F, Cheng CW, Hwang D, Martin-Montalvo A, Saavedra J, Ingles S, de Cabo R, Cohen P, Longo VD: Growth hormone receptor deficiency is associated with a major reduction in pro-Aging signaling, cancer, and diabetes in humans. Sci Transl Med 2011; 3: 70ra13
27. Crimmins EM, Preston SH, Cohen B (eds): Explaining Divergent Levels of Longevity in High-Income Countries. Washington, National Academies Press, 2011
28. Olshansky SJ, Antonucci T, Berkman L, Binstock RH, Boersch-Supan A, Cacioppo JT, Carnes BA, Carstensen LL, Fried LP, Goldman DP, Jackson J, Kohli M, Rother J, Zheng Y, Rowe J: Differences in life expectancy due to race and educational differences are widening, and many may not catch up. Health Aff (Millwood) 2012; 31: 1803-1813
29. National Climate Assessment Draft 2013. Washington, National Academies Press, 2013. http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?.record-id= 18322
30. Ramasamy R, Surendran SN: Global climate change and its potential impact on disease transmission by salinity-Tolerant mosquito vectors in coastal zones. Front Physiol 2012; 3: 198
31. Kleeman MJ, Chen S-H, Harley R: Climate change impact on air quality in California. Report to the California Air Resources Board 2010. www.arb.ca.gov/research/apr/past/04-349.pdf2
32. Robine JM, Michel JP, Herrmann FR: Excess male mortality and age-specific mortality trajectories under different mortality conditions: A lesson from the heat wave summer 2003. Mech Aging Devel 2012; 133: 378-396
33. Reid CE, O?Neill MS, Gronlund CJ, Brines SJ, Brown DG, Diez-Roux AV, Schwartz J: Mapping community determinants of heat vulnerability. Environ Health Perspect 2009; 117: 1730-1736
34. Zanobetti A, O?Neill MS, Gronlund CJ, Schwartz JD: Summer temperature variability and long-Term survival among elderly people with chronic disease. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2012; 109: 6608-6613
35. Theocharis G, Tansarli GS, Mavros MN, Spiropoulos T, Barbas SG, Falagas ME: Association between use of air-conditioning or fan and survival of elderly febrile patients: A prospective study. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis 2013; 32: 1143-1147
36. Analitis A, Michelozzi P, D?Ippoliti D, de?Donato F, Menne B, Matthies F, Atkinson RW, Iñiguez C, Basagaña X, Schneider A, Lefranc A, Paldy A, Bisanti L, Katsouyanni K: Effects of heat waves on mortality: Effect modification and confounding by air pollutants. Epidemiol 2013, in press
37. Künzli N, Jerrett M, Mack WJ, Beckerman B, LaBree L, Gilliland F, Thomas D, Peters J, Hodis HN: Ambient air pollution and atherosclerosis in Los Angeles. Environ Health Perspect 2005; 113: 201-206
38. Mustafic H, Jabre P, Caussin C, Murad MH, Escolano S, Tafflet M, Périer MC, Marijon E, Vernerey D, Empana JP, Jouven X: Main air pollutants and myocardial infarction: A systematic review and meta-Analysis. J Am Med Assoc 2012; 307: 713-721
39. Shah AS, Langrish JP, Nair H, McAllister DA, Hunter AL, Donaldson K, Newby DE, Mills NL: Global association of air pollution and heart failure: A systematic review and metaanalysis. Lancet 2013; 382: 1039-1048
40. Chen Y, Ebenstein A, Greenstone M, Li H: Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China's Huai River policy. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 2013; 110: 12936-12941
41. www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-And-you/ affect/air-emissions.htm
42. www.chinafaqs.org/blog-posts/can-china'saction-plan-combat-Air-pollution- slowdown-new-coal-power-development#fn1
43. Chen JC, Schwartz J: Neurobehavioral effects of ambient air pollution on cognitive performance in US adults. Neurotoxicology 2009; 30: 231-239
44. Morgan TE, Davis DD, Iwata N, Tanner JM, Snyder D, Ning Z, Kam W, Hsu YT, Winkler JW, Chen JC, Petasis NA, Baudry M, Sioutas C, Finch CE: Glutamatergic neurons in rodent models respond to nanoscale particulate urban air pollutants in vivo and in vitro. Environ Health Perspect 2011; 119: 1003-1009
45. Davis DA, Akopian G, Walsh JP, Sioutas C, Morgan TE, Finch CE: Urban air pollutants reduce synaptic function of CA1 neurons via an NMDA/NO pathway in vitro. J Neurochem 2013; 127: 509-519
46. Davis DD, Bortolato M, Godar SC, Sander TK, Iwata N, Pakbin P, Shih JC, Berhane K, McConnell R, Sioutas C, Finch CE, Morgan TE: Prenatal exposure to urban air nanoparticles in mice causes altered neuronal differentiation and depression-like responses. PLoS One 2013; 8:e64128
47. Dadvand P, Parker J, Bell ML, Bonzini M, Brauer M, Darrow LA, Gehring U, Glinianaia SV, Gouveia N, Ha EH, Leem JH, van den Hooven EH, Jalaludin B, Jesdale BM, Lepeule J, Morello-Frosch R, Morgan GG, Pesatori AC, Pierik FH, Pless-Mulloli T, Rich DQ, Sathyanarayana S, Seo J, Slama R, Strickland M, Tamburic L, Wartenberg D, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Woodruff TJ: Maternal exposure to particulate air pollution and term birth weight: A multi-country evaluation of effect and heterogeneity. Environ Health Perspect 2013; 121: 267-373
48. Massad E, Coutinho FA, Lopez LF, da Silva DR: Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections. Phys Life Rev 2011; 8: 169-199
49. Bezirtzoglou C, Dekas K, Charvalos E: Climate changes, environment, infection: Facts, scenarios and growing awareness from the public health community within Europe. Anaerobe 2011; 17: 337-340
50. Southerst RW: Global change and human vulnerability to vector-borne diseases. Clin Microbiol Rev 2005; 36: 689-696
51. Salomon JA, Wang H, Freeman MK, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Lopez AD, Murray CJ: Healthy life expectancy for 187 countries, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden Disease Study 2010. Lancet 2012; 380: 2144-2162
52. Carnes BA, Staats D, Willcox BJ: Impact of climate change on elder health. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 2013. E-pub ahead of print