The causes, effects and challenges of Sahelian droughts: A critical review

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 14, Issue 1, 2014, Pages 145-156

  Epule, Epule Terence ^a   Peng, Changhui ^a   Lepage, Laurent ^a   Chen, Zhi ^b  

^a UNIVERSITÉ DU QUÉBEC À MONTRÉAL   (Canada)

^b Gina Cody School of Engineering and Computer Science   (Canada)

Author keywords

CO2 emissions; Droughts; Food yields; HIV AIDS; Human induced climate change; National security; Tree mortality

Indexed keywords

EID: 84893647656     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0473-z     Document Type: Article

References (109)

1. Adhikari M, Ishizaka Y, Minda H, Kazaoka R, Jensen JB, Gras JL, Nakajima T (2005) Vertical distribution of cloud condensation nuclei concentrations and their effect on microphysical properties of clouds over the sea near the southwest islands of Japan. J Geophys Res 110: D10203. doi: 10. 1029/2004JD004758.
2. Allen CD, Macalady A, Chenchouni H, Bachelet D, McDowell N, Vennetier M, Kitzberger T, Rigling A, Breshears DD, Hogg EH, Gonzalez P, Fensham R, Zhang Z, Castro J, Demidova N, Lim JH, Allard G, Running SW, Semerci A, Cobb N (2009) A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests. Forest Ecol Manag 259: 660-684. doi: 10. 1016/j. foreco. 2009. 09. 001.
3. Antwi-Agyei P, Fraser EDG, Dougill AJ, Stringer LC, Smelton E (2012) Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to droughts in Ghana using rainfall yield and socioeconomic data. Appl Geogr 32: 324-334. doi: 10. 1016/j. apgeog. 2011. 06. 010.
4. Anyamba A, Eastman J (1996) Interannual variability of NDVI over Africa and its relation to El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Inter J Remote Sens 17: 2533-2548.
5. Anyamba A, Tucker CJ (2005) Analysis of Sahelian Vegetation dynamics using NOAA-AVHRR NDVI data from 1981-2003. J Arid Environ 63: 595-614.
6. Asch F, Dingkuhn M, Sow A, Audebert A (2005) Drought-induced changes in rooting patterns and assimilate partitioning between root and shoot in upland rice. Field Crops Res 93: 223-236. doi: 10. 1016/j. fcr. 2004. 10. 002.
7. Bader J, Latif M (2003) The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 30: 2165-2169.
8. Baldocchi D (2008) Breathing of the terrestrial biosphere: lessons learned from a global network of carbon dioxide flux measurement systems. Aust J Bot 56(1): 1-26.
9. Biasutti M, Giannini A (2006) Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings. Geophys Res Lett 33: L11706.
10. Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and Atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-Surface temperature: Atlantic vs ENSO. Inter J Clim 21: 973-1005. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 673.
11. Charney JM, Quirk WJ, Chow SH, Kornfield J (1977) A comparative study of the effects of albedo change on drought in semi-arid regions. J Atmos Sci 34(9): 1366-1386.
12. Chelliah M, Bell GD (2004) Tropical multidecadal and interannual climate variability in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. J Clim 17: 1777-1803.
13. Clover J (2010) Food security in sub-Saharan Africa. Afr Food Rev 12(1): 5-15. doi: 10. 1080/10246029. 2003. 9627566.
14. De Rouw A (2004) Improving yields and reducing risks in pearl millet farming in the African Sahel. Agric Syst 81: 73-93.
15. Dilley M, Chen RS, Deichmann U, Lerner-Lam AL, Arnold M (2005) Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. Disaster Risk Management Series No, 5. The World Bank, Washington.
16. Dinku T, Ceccato P, Grover-Kopec E, Lemma M, Connor SJ, Ropelewski CF (2007) Validation of satellite rainfall products over East Africa's complex topography. Inter J Remote Sens 28(7): 1503-1526.
17. Eklundh L, Olsson L (2003) Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999. Geophys Res Lett 30(8): 1430. doi: 10. 1029/2002GL016772.
18. Epule TE, Peng C, Lepage L, Chen Z (2011) Forest loss triggers in Cameroon. A quantitative assessment using multiple linear regression approach. J Geogr Geol 3(1): 30-40. doi: 10. 5539/jgg. v3n1p30.
19. Epule TE, Peng C, Lepage L, Chen Z (2012a) Rainfall and deforestation dilemma for cereal Production in the Sudano-Sahel of Cameroon. J Agric Sci 4(2): 1-9. doi: 10. 5539/jas. v4n2p1.
20. Epule TE, Peng C, Lepage L, Balgah SN, Mafany NM (2012b) Can the African food supply model learn from the Asian food supply model? Predictions with selected variables and quantitative methods. Environ Deve Sus 593-610. doi: 10. 1007/s10668-012-9341-0.
21. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (2010) Forest resource assessment. FAO Forestry paper no 163, FAO, Rome. [Online] Available http://www. fao. org [12 January 2013].
22. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, FAO (2006) Global forest resources assessment 2005-progress towards sustainable forest management. Rome. FAO Forestry Paper No. 147.
23. Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, United Nations Industrial Development Organization (2008) Agricultural mechanization in Africa...Time for action. Planning investment for enhanced agricultural productivity report of an expert group meeting in January 2008, Vienna Austria. FAO, Rome. Available from http://www. unido. org/fileadmin/user_media/Publications/Pub_free/agricultural_mechanization_in_Africa. pdf. Accessed 1 Feb 2013.
24. Frelich LE, Reich PB (2010) Will environmental changes reinforce the impact of global warming on the prairie-forest border of central North America? Front Ecol Environ 8(7): 371-378. doi: 10. 1890/080191.
25. Fuller DO, Ottke C (2002) Land cover, Rainfall and Land-Surface Albedo in West Africa. Clim Chang 54: 181-204.
26. Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel Rainfall on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Science 302: 1027-1030.
27. Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2005) Dynamics of the boreal summer African monsoon in the NSIPP1 atmospheric model. Clim Dyn 25: 517-535. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-005-0056-x.
28. Giannini A, Biasutti M, Held IM, Sobel AH (2008) A global perspective on African climate. Clim Chang 90: 359-383. doi: 10. 1007/s10584-008-9396-y.
29. Glantz MH (1994) Drought, desertification and food production. In: Glantz MH (ed) Drought follows the plow. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 9-30.
30. Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriauz C (2008) Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res 113: D06104. doi: 10. 1029/2007JD008972.
31. Gonzalez P (2001) Desertification and a shift of forest species in the West African Sahel. Clim Res 17: 217-228.
32. Gonzalez P, Tucker CJ, Sy H (2012) Tree density and species decline in the African Sahel attributable to climate. J Arid Environ 78: 55-64. doi: 10. 1016/j. jaridenv. 2011. 11. 001.
33. Hagos SM, Cook KH (2008) Ocean warming and the late-twentieth century Sahel drought and recovery. J Clim 21: 3797-3814. doi: 10. 1175/2008JCLI2055. 1.
34. Haile M (2005) Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa. Philos Trans R Soc 360: 2169-2182. doi: 10. 1098/rstb. 2005. 1746.
35. Held IM, Delworth TL, Lu J, Knutson T, Findell K (2005) Simulations of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries. PNAS 102(50): 17891-17896. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0509057102.
36. Herrmann SM, Anyamba A, Tucker CJ (2005) Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate. Glob Environ Chang 15: 394-404.
37. Hiernaux P, Diarra L, Trichon V, Mougin E, Soumaguel N, Baup F (2009) Woody plant population dynamics in response to climate changes from 1984 to 2006 in Sahel (Gourma, Mali). J Hydrol 375: 103-113.
38. Hoerling MP, Hurrell JW, Eischeid J, Phillips AS (2006) Detection and attribution of 20th century Northern and Southern African monsoon change. J Clim 19: 3989-4008. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3842. 1.
39. Hui WJ, Cook B, Ravi S, Fuentes JD, D'Odorico P (2008) Dust-rainfall feedbacks in the West African Sahel. Water Resour Res 44: W05202. doi: 10. 1029/2008WR006885.
40. Hulme M (2001) Climatic perspectives on Sahelian desiccation: 1973-1998. Glob Environ Chang 11: 19-29.
41. Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269: 676-679.
42. Ifejika Speranza CI (2006) Droughts and famines: the underlying factors and the causal link among agro-pastoral households in semi-arid Makueni district, Kenya. Glob Environ Chang 18: 220-233.
43. Janicot S, Mounier F, Gervois S, Sultan B, Kiladis GN (2010) The dynamics of the West African Monsoon. Part V: the Detection and role of the dominant modes of convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves. J Clim 23: 4005-4024. doi: 10. 1175/2010JCLI3221. 1.
44. Kang SM, Held IM, Frierson DWM, Zhao M (2008) The response of the ITCZ to extratropical thermal forcing: idealized slab-ocean experiments with a GCM. J Clim 21: 3521-3532. doi: 10. 1175/2007JCLI2146. 1.
45. Kaufman YJ, Tanré D, Boucher O (2002) A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system. Nature 419: 215-223. doi: 10. 1038/nature01091.
46. 2 increase in 2002-2003. Geophys Res Lett 34: L09703. doi: 10. 1029/2006/GL029019.
47. Knutson TR, Delworth TL, Dixon KW, Held IM, Lu J, Ramaswamy V, Schwarzkopf MD, Stenchikov G, Stouffer RJ (2006) Assessment of twenty-century regional surface temperature trends using the GFDL CM2 coupled models. J Clim 19: 1624-1651. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3709. 1.
48. Koepke D, Kolb T, Adams H (2010) Variation in woody plant mortality and dieback from severe drought among soils, plant groups, and species within a northern Arizona ecotone. Oecologia (Berl.) 163(4): 1079-1090. doi: 10. 1007/s00442-010-1671-8.
49. Lamb PJ (1982) Persistence of Sub-Saharan drought. Nature 299: 36-47.
50. Lamprey HF (1975) Report on the desert encroachment reconnaissance in northern Sudan, 21 Oct. to 10 Nov. UNESCO/UNEP, pp 16.
51. Leuzinger S, Quinn TR (2011) How do we improve Earth system models? Integrating Earth system models, ecosystem models, experiments and long-term data. New Phytol 191(1): 15-18. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1469-8137. 2011. 03778. x.
52. Li X, Maring H, Savoie D, Voss K, Prospero JM (1996) Dominance of mineral dust in aerosol light-scattering in the North Atlantic trade winds. Nature 380: 416-422.
53. Lindell L, Astrom M, Oberg T (2010a) Land-use versus natural controls on soil fertility in the Subandean Amazon. Peru Sci Total Environ 408(4): 965-975.
54. Lindell L, Astrom M, Oberg T (2010b) Land-use change versus natural controls on stream water chemistry in the Subandean Amazon. Peru Appl Geochem 25(3): 485-495.
55. Lintner BR, Chiang JCH (2006) Adjustment of the remote tropical climate system to El Nino conditions. J Clim 20: 2544-2557. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI4138. 1.
56. Lohmann U, Feichter J (2005) Global indirect aerosol effects: a review. Atmos Chem Phys 5: 715-737.
57. Lu J, Delworth TL (2005) Oceanic forcing of the late 20th century Sahel drought. Geophys Res Lett 32: L22706. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL023316.
58. Lwanga JS (2003) Localized tree mortality following the drought of 1999 at Ngogo, Kibale National Park, Uganda. Afr J Ecol 41: 194-196.
59. Mahowald NM, Kiehl LM (2003) Mineral aerosol and cloud interactions. Geophys Res Lett 30(9): 1475. doi: 10. 1029/2002GL016762.
60. Maranz S (2009) Tree mortality in the African Sahel indicates an anthropogenic ecosystem displaced by climate change. J Biogeogr 36: 1181-1193.
61. Maynard K, Royer JF, Chauvin F (2002) Impact of greenhouse warming on the West African summer monsoon. Clim Dyn 19: 499-514.
62. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In: Proceedings of the 8th conference on applied climatology, Anaheim, California. 17-22 January 1993. American Meterological Society.
63. Meir P, Metcalfe DB, Costa ACL, Fisher RA (2008) The fate of assimilated carbon during drought: impacts on respiration in Amozon rainforests. Phil Trans Roy Soc B 363: 1849-1855.
64. Molen MK, Dolman AJ, Ciais P, Eglin T, Gobron N, Law BE, Meir P, Peters W, Phillips OL, Reichstein M, Chen T, Dekker SC, Doubkova M, Friedi MA, Jung M, Hurk BJJM, De Jeu RAM, Kruijt B, Ohta T, Rebels KT, Plummer S, Seneviratne SI, Sitch S, Teuling AJ, Weri GR, Wang G (2011) Droughts and ecosystems carbon cycling. Agric For Meteo 151: 765-773. doi: 10. 1016/j. agrformet. 2011. 01. 018.
65. Muller TR (2004) HIV/AIDS and agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa. Wageningen Academic Publishers, Netherlands.
66. N'Tchayi MG, Bertrand JJ, Nicholson SE (1997) The diurnal and seasonal cycles of wind-borne dust over Africa north of the equator. J Appl Meteo 36: 868-882. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0450(1997)036<0868: TDASCO>2. 0. CO;2.
67. Neelin JD, Su H (2005) Moist teleconnection mechanisms for the tropical South American and Atlantic sector. J Clim 18: 3928-3950. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3517. 1.
68. Niang AJ, Ozer A, Ozer P (2008) Fifty years of landscape evolution in Southwestern Mauritania by means of aerial photos. J Arid Environ 72: 97-107.
69. Nicholson SE (1995) Sahel, West Africa. Encycl Environ Biol 3: 261-275.
70. Nicholson SE (2001) Climate and environmental change in Africa during the last two centuries. Clim Res 14: 123-144.
71. Nicholson SE, Trucker CJ, Ba MB (1998) Desertification, drought and surface vegetation: an example from the West African Sahel. Bull Am Meteo Soc 79(5): 815-829.
72. Nyariki DM, Wiggins S (1997) Household food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa: lessons from Kenya. Br Food J 99(7): 249-262.
73. Olsson L (1986) Report on reports-continuing the commitment: agricultural development in the Sahel. Environ 29: 25-27.
74. Olsson L (1993) On the causes of famine: drought, desertification and market failure in the Sudan. Ambio 22: 395-403.
75. Olsson L, Mryka H (2008) Greening of the Sahel. The Encyclopedia of Earth. Available from http://www. eoearth. org/article/Greening_of_the_Sahel. Accessed 23 Feb 2012.
76. Olsson L, Eklundh L, Ardo J (2005) The recent Greening of the Sahel-trends, patterns and potential causes. J Arid Environ 63(3): 556-566.
77. Palmer WC (1965) Meteorologic drought. US Department of Commerce. Weather Bureau, Research Paper No. 45. pp 58.
78. Peng C, Ma Z, Lei X, Zhu Q, Chen H, Wang W, Liu S, Li W, Fang X, Zhou X (2011) A drought-induced pervasive increase in tree mortality across Canada's boreal forests. Nat Clim Chang 1: 467-471. doi: 10. 1038/NCLIMATE1293.
79. Prince SD, Brown De Coulston E, Kravitz LL (1998) Evidence from rain-use efficiencies does not indicate extensive Sahelian desertification. Glob Chang Biol 4: 359-374.
80. Prospero JM, Lamb PJ (2003) African drought and dust transport to the Caribbean: climate change implications. Science 302: 1024-1027.
81. Ramanathan V, Crutzen PJ, Kiehl JT, Rosenfeld D (2001) Aerosols, climate, and the hydrological cycle. Science 294: 2119-2124. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1064034.
82. Reij C, Tappan G, Belemvire A (2005) Changing land management practices and vegetation on the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso (1968-2002). J Arid Environ 63: 642-659.
83. Reynolds JF, Stafford SDM, Lambin EF, Turner BL II, Mortimore M, Batterbury SP, Downing TE, Dowlatabadi H, Fernández RJ, Herrick JE, Huber-Sannwald E, Jiang H, Leemans R, Lynam T, Maestre FT, Ayarza M, Walker B (2007) Global desertification: building a science for dryland development. Science 316: 847-851.
84. Roncoli MC, Ingram KT, Kirshen PH (2002) Reading the rains: local knowledge and rainfall forecasting among farmers of Burkina Faso. Soc Nat Resour 15: 411-430.
85. Rosegrant MW, Cline SA (2003) Global food security: challenges and policies. Science 302: 1917-1919.
86. Rosenfeld D, Rudich Y, Lahav R (2001) Desert dust suppressing precipitation: a possible desertification feedback loop. PNAS 98: 5975-5980. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 101122798.
87. Rotstayn LD, Lohmann U (2002) Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol affect. J Clim 14: 2103-2116.
88. Runnstrom M (2003) Rangeland development of the Mu Us Sandy Land in semiarid China: an analysis using Landsat and NOAA remote sensing data. Land Deg Deve Stud 14: 189-202.
89. Schwalm CR, Williams CA, Schaefer K, Arneth A, Bonal D, Buchmann N, Chen JQ, Law BE, Lindroth A, Luyssaert S, Reichstein M, Richardson AD (2010) Assimilation exceeds respiration sensitivity to drought: a FLUXNET synthesis. Glob Chang Biol 16(2): 657-670.
90. Seaquist JW, Olsson L, Ardo J, Eklundh L (2006) Broad-scale increase in NPP quantified for the African Sahel, 1982e1999. Inter J Remote Sens 27: 5115-5122.
91. Shanahan TM, Overpeck JT, Anchukaitis KJ, Beck JW, Cole JE, Dettman DL, Peck JA, Scholz CA, King JW (2009) Atlantic forcing of persistent drought in West Africa. Science 324: 377-380.
92. Simelton E, Fraser EDG, Termansen M, Forster PM, Dougill AJ (2009) Typologies of crop-drought vulnerability: an empirical analysis of the socioeconomic factors that influence the sensitivity and resilience to drought of three major food crops in China (1961-2001). Environ Sci Policy 12(4): 438-452.
93. Thiaw WM, Bell GD (2005) Mechanisms associated with the June-September 2003 Sahel rainfall and implications for seasonal climate forecasts. CLIVAR Exchang 10(1): 29-31.
94. Thiaw WM, Mo K (2005) Impact of sea surface temperature and soil moisture on seasonal rainfall prediction over the Sahel. J Clim 18: 5330-5343.
95. Tippett MK (2006) Filtering of GCM simulated Sahel precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 33: 01804. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL024923.
96. UNAIDS (2002) Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic 2002. UNAIDS, Geneva.
97. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation. J Clim 20: 4316-4340. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI4258. 1.
98. Vicente-Serrano SM, Begueria S, Lopez-Moreno JI, Angulo M, El Kenawy A (2010) A new global 0. 5° gridded dataset (1901-2006) of multiscalar drought index: comparison with current drought datasets based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Am Meteo Soc. doi: 10. 1175/2010jhm1224. 1.
99. Vincke C, Diedhiou I, Grouzis M (2010) Long term dynamics and structure of woody vegetation in the Ferlo (Senegal). J Arid Environ 74: 268-276.
100. Wang B, Ding Q, Fu X, Jin K, Shukla J, Doblas-Reyes F (2005) Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 32: 15711. doi: 10. 1029/2005GL022734.
101. Weldeab S, Lea DW, Ralph R, Schneider RR, Andersen N (2007) 155, 000 years of West African monsoon and ocean thermal evolution. Science 316(1): 1303-1307.
102. Wezel A, Lykke AM (2006) Woody vegetation change in Sahelian West Africa: evidence from local knowledge. Environ Deve Sust 8: 553-567.
103. Wolff C, Haug G, Timmermann A, Damste JSS, Brauer A, Sigman DM, Cane MA, Verschuren D (2011) Reduced interannual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last Ice Age. Science 333: 742-747.
104. Woomer PL, Tieszen LL, Tappan G, Toure A, Sall M (2004) Land use and terrestrial carbon stocks in Senegal. J Arid Environ 59: 625-642. doi: 10. 1016/j. jaridenv. 2004. 03. 025.
105. Zeng N (2003) Drought in the Sahel. Science 302: 999-1000.
106. Zeng N, Neelin JD, Lau KM, Tucker CJ (1999) Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction. Science 286: 1537-1540.
107. Zeppel MJB, Adams HD, Anderegg WRL (2011) Mechanistic causes of tree drought mortality: recent results, unresolved questions and future research needs. New Phytol 192(4): 800-803. doi: 10. 1111/j. 1469-8137. 2011. 03960. x.
108. Zhang R, Delworth TL (2006) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett 33: 17712. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026267.
109. Zhao L, Chen Z, Lee K (2011) Modelling the dispersion of wastewater discharges from offshore outlets review. Environ Rev 19: 107-120. doi: 10. 1139/A10-025.