메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 45, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 305-314

The psychology of interpreting expert evaluative opinions

Author keywords

decision making; expert evaluative opinions; likelihood ratios; probability; psychology

Indexed keywords

CONFERENCE PAPER; CRIMINAL JUSTICE; FORENSIC MEDICINE; HUMAN; INTERPERSONAL COMMUNICATION; PROFESSIONAL PRACTICE; PSYCHOLOGIST; PSYCHOLOGY; SCIENTIST; STANDARD; VERBAL BEHAVIOR;

EID: 84882425762     PISSN: 00450618     EISSN: 1834562X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00450618.2013.784361     Document Type: Conference Paper
Times cited : (32)

References (54)
  • 2
    • 0025874786 scopus 로고
    • What made us ever think we could individualize using statistics?
    • Stoney, DA. 1991. What made us ever think we could individualize using statistics?. J Forensic Sci Soc., 31 (2): 197-199.
    • (1991) J Forensic Sci Soc. , vol.31 , Issue.2 , pp. 197-199
    • Stoney, D.A.1
  • 4
    • 0344810783 scopus 로고
    • The evaluation of physical evidence in criminalistics: Subjective or objective process?
    • Osterburg, JW. 1969. The evaluation of physical evidence in criminalistics: subjective or objective process?. J Crim Law Crim., 60 (1): 97-101.
    • (1969) J Crim Law Crim. , vol.60 , Issue.1 , pp. 97-101
    • Osterburg, J.W.1
  • 5
    • 41349097141 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individualization fallacy in forensic science evidence
    • Saks, MJ, and, Koehler, JJ. 2008. Individualization fallacy in forensic science evidence. The Vand L Rev., 61: 199-219.
    • (2008) The Vand L Rev. , vol.61 , pp. 199-219
    • Saks, M.J.1    Koehler, J.J.2
  • 6
    • 79952450806 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uniqueness in the forensic identification sciences-fact or fiction?
    • Page, M, Taylor, J, and, Blenkin, M. 2011. Uniqueness in the forensic identification sciences-fact or fiction?. Forensic Sci Int., 206 (1-3): 12-18.
    • (2011) Forensic Sci Int. , vol.206 , Issue.13 , pp. 12-18
    • Page, M.1    Taylor, J.2    Blenkin, M.3
  • 7
    • 57649198439 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Failed forensics: How forensic science lost its way and how it might yet find it
    • Saks, MJ, and, Faigman, DL. 2008. Failed forensics: how forensic science lost its way and how it might yet find it. Annu Rev Law Soc Sci., 4: 149-171.
    • (2008) Annu Rev Law Soc Sci. , vol.4 , pp. 149-171
    • Saks, M.J.1    Faigman, D.L.2
  • 8
    • 68649108740 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • National Research Council Committee on Identifying the Needs of the Forensic Science Community Washington: The National Academies Press
    • National Research Council Committee on Identifying the Needs of the Forensic Science Community. Strengthening forensic science in the United States: a path forward. Washington: The National Academies Press; 2009.
    • (2009) Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward
  • 9
    • 69449098011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Standards for the formulation of evaluative forensic science expert opinion
    • Association of Forensic Science Providers
    • Association of Forensic Science Providers. 2009. Standards for the formulation of evaluative forensic science expert opinion. Sci Justice., 49 (3): 161-164.
    • (2009) Sci Justice. , vol.49 , Issue.3 , pp. 161-164
  • 10
    • 84882352509 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • R v T, England and Wales Court of Appeal, Criminal. 2010
    • R v T, England and Wales Court of Appeal, Criminal. 2010.
  • 11
    • 84871269854 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The likelihood-ratio framework and forensic evidence in court: A response to R v T
    • Morrison, GS. 2012. The likelihood-ratio framework and forensic evidence in court: a response to R v T. T Int J Ev Proof., 16 (1): 1-29.
    • (2012) T Int J Ev Proof. , vol.16 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-29
    • Morrison, G.S.1
  • 12
    • 79956266797 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evidence evaluation: A response to the court of appeal judgment in R v T
    • Berger, CEH, Buckleton, J, Champod, C, Evett, IW, and, Jackson, G. 2011. Evidence evaluation: a response to the court of appeal judgment in R v T. Sci Justice., 51 (2): 43-49.
    • (2011) Sci Justice. , vol.51 , Issue.2 , pp. 43-49
    • Berger, C.E.H.1    Buckleton, J.2    Champod, C.3    Evett, I.W.4    Jackson, G.5
  • 14
    • 79959731195 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extending the confusion about Bayes
    • Robertson, B, Vignaux, G, and, Berger, CEH. 2011. Extending the confusion about Bayes. Mod Law Rev., 74 (3): 444-455.
    • (2011) Mod Law Rev. , vol.74 , Issue.3 , pp. 444-455
    • Robertson, B.1    Vignaux, G.2    Berger, C.E.H.3
  • 15
    • 82655172522 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Re: Expressing evaluative opinions; A position statement
    • Facey, OE, and, Davis, RJ. 2011. Re: Expressing evaluative opinions; a position statement. Sci Justice., 51 (4): 212-212.
    • (2011) Sci Justice. , vol.51 , Issue.4 , pp. 212-212
    • Facey, O.E.1    Davis, R.J.2
  • 16
    • 79959540038 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian approach for interpreting shoemark evidence in forensic casework: Accounting for wear features
    • Skerrett J, Neumann C, Mateos-Garcia I. A Bayesian approach for interpreting shoemark evidence in forensic casework: Accounting for wear features. Forensic Sci Int. 2011.
    • (2011) Forensic Sci Int.
    • Skerrett, J.1    Neumann, C.2    Mateos-Garcia, I.3
  • 17
    • 84858425984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying the weight of evidence from a forensic fingerprint comparison: A new paradigm
    • Neumann, C, Evett, IW, and, Skerrett, J. 2011. Quantifying the weight of evidence from a forensic fingerprint comparison: a new paradigm. J Roy Stat Soc., 175 (2): 371-345.
    • (2011) J Roy Stat Soc. , vol.175 , Issue.2 , pp. 371-345
    • Neumann, C.1    Evett, I.W.2    Skerrett, J.3
  • 18
    • 84871338017 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Expressing evaluative forensic science opinions in a court of law
    • Ligertwood, A, and, Edmond, G. 2012. Expressing evaluative forensic science opinions in a court of law. Law Prob Risk., 11 (4): 289-302.
    • (2012) Law Prob Risk. , vol.11 , Issue.4 , pp. 289-302
    • Ligertwood, A.1    Edmond, G.2
  • 20
    • 0000312731 scopus 로고
    • Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials: The prosecutors fallacy and the defense attorneys fallacy
    • Thompson, WC, and, Schumann, EL. 1987. Interpretation of statistical evidence in criminal trials: The prosecutors fallacy and the defense attorneys fallacy. Law Human Behav., 11 (3): 167-187.
    • (1987) Law Human Behav. , vol.11 , Issue.3 , pp. 167-187
    • Thompson, W.C.1    Schumann, E.L.2
  • 21
    • 79951845581 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understanding juror perceptions of forensic evidence: Investigating the impact of case context on perceptions of forensic evidence strength
    • Smith, LL, Bull, R, and, Holliday, R. 2011. Understanding juror perceptions of forensic evidence: investigating the impact of case context on perceptions of forensic evidence strength. J Forensic Sci., 56 (2): 409-414.
    • (2011) J Forensic Sci. , vol.56 , Issue.2 , pp. 409-414
    • Smith, L.L.1    Bull, R.2    Holliday, R.3
  • 22
    • 0003039377 scopus 로고
    • Can jurors understand probabilistic evidence?
    • Kaye, DH, and, Koehler, JJ. 1991. Can jurors understand probabilistic evidence?. J Roy Stat Soc., 154 (1): 75-81.
    • (1991) J Roy Stat Soc. , vol.154 , Issue.1 , pp. 75-81
    • Kaye, D.H.1    Koehler, J.J.2
  • 23
    • 0010243673 scopus 로고
    • Jurors comprehension and assessment of probabilistic evidence
    • Goodman, J. 1992. Jurors comprehension and assessment of probabilistic evidence. Am J Trial Advoc., 16: 361-390.
    • (1992) Am J Trial Advoc. , vol.16 , pp. 361-390
    • Goodman, J.1
  • 24
    • 0023860357 scopus 로고
    • Bayes theorem in the trial process: Instructing jurors on the value of statistical evidence
    • Faigman, DL, and, Baglioni, A. 1988. Bayes theorem in the trial process: instructing jurors on the value of statistical evidence. Law Human Behav., 12 (1): 1-17.
    • (1988) Law Human Behav. , vol.12 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-17
    • Faigman, D.L.1    Baglioni, A.2
  • 25
    • 32344450995 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A systematic review on communicating with patients about evidence
    • Trevena, LJ, Barratt, A, Butow, P, and, Caldwell, P. 2006. A systematic review on communicating with patients about evidence. J Eval Clin Pract., 12 (1): 13-23.
    • (2006) J Eval Clin Pract. , vol.12 , Issue.1 , pp. 13-23
    • Trevena, L.J.1    Barratt, A.2    Butow, P.3    Caldwell, P.4
  • 26
    • 0035487641 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When are people persuaded by DNA match statistics?
    • Koehler, JJ. 2001. When are people persuaded by DNA match statistics?. Law Human Behav., 25 (5): 493-513.
    • (2001) Law Human Behav. , vol.25 , Issue.5 , pp. 493-513
    • Koehler, J.J.1
  • 27
    • 0001589348 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On conveying the probative value of DNA evidence: Frequencies, likelihood ratios, and error rates
    • Koehler, JJ. 1996. On conveying the probative value of DNA evidence: frequencies, likelihood ratios, and error rates. Uni Colo Law Rev., 67: 859-886.
    • (1996) Uni Colo Law Rev. , vol.67 , pp. 859-886
    • Koehler, J.J.1
  • 28
    • 4043149358 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Thinking about low-probability events an exemplar-cuing theory
    • Koehler, JJ, and, Macchi, L. 2004. Thinking about low-probability events an exemplar-cuing theory. Psychol Sci., 15 (8): 540-546.
    • (2004) Psychol Sci. , vol.15 , Issue.8 , pp. 540-546
    • Koehler, J.J.1    MacChi, L.2
  • 29
    • 29944446543 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Communicating statistical DNA evidence
    • Lindsey, S, Hertwig, R, and, Gigerenzer, G. 2002. Communicating statistical DNA evidence. Jurimetrics., 43: 147-164.
    • (2002) Jurimetrics. , vol.43 , pp. 147-164
    • Lindsey, S.1    Hertwig, R.2    Gigerenzer, G.3
  • 30
    • 23644440946 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A 30% chance of rain tomorrow: How does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?
    • Gigerenzer, G, Herwig, R, Van Den Broek, E, Fasolo, B, and, Katsickopoulos, KV. 2005. A 30% chance of rain tomorrow: how does the public understand probabilistic weather forecasts?. Risk Anal., 25 (3): 623-629.
    • (2005) Risk Anal. , vol.25 , Issue.3 , pp. 623-629
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Herwig, R.2    Van Den Broek, E.3    Fasolo, B.4    Katsickopoulos, K.V.5
  • 31
    • 84855957239 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Understanding of forensic expert reports by judges, defense lawyers and forensic professionals
    • de Keijser, J, and, Elffers, H. 2012. Understanding of forensic expert reports by judges, defense lawyers and forensic professionals. Psychol Crime Law., 18 (2): 191-207.
    • (2012) Psychol Crime Law. , vol.18 , Issue.2 , pp. 191-207
    • De Keijser, J.1    Elffers, H.2
  • 33
    • 84867682570 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • If the shoe fits they might acquit: The value of forensic science testimony
    • Koehler JJ. If the shoe fits they might acquit: the value of forensic science testimony. J Empir Legal Stud. 2011;8(s1):21-48.
    • (2011) J Empir Legal Stud. , vol.8 , Issue.S1 , pp. 21-48
    • Koehler, J.J.1
  • 34
    • 38249029666 scopus 로고
    • Verbal probabilities: Ambiguous, context-dependent, or both?
    • Brun, W, and, Teigen, KH. 1988. Verbal probabilities: ambiguous, context-dependent, or both?. Organ Behav Hum Dec., 41 (3): 390-404.
    • (1988) Organ Behav Hum Dec. , vol.41 , Issue.3 , pp. 390-404
    • Brun, W.1    Teigen, K.H.2
  • 35
    • 0025319932 scopus 로고
    • How do parents of babies interpret qualitative expressions of probability?
    • Shaw, N, and, Dear, P. 1990. How do parents of babies interpret qualitative expressions of probability?. Arch Dis Child., 65 (5): 520-523.
    • (1990) Arch Dis Child. , vol.65 , Issue.5 , pp. 520-523
    • Shaw, N.1    Dear, P.2
  • 36
    • 0001133984 scopus 로고
    • Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: Perceived base rate and severity of events
    • Weber, EU, and, Hilton, DJ. 1990. Contextual effects in the interpretations of probability words: perceived base rate and severity of events. J Exp Psychol Human., 16 (4): 781-789.
    • (1990) J Exp Psychol Human. , vol.16 , Issue.4 , pp. 781-789
    • Weber, E.U.1    Hilton, D.J.2
  • 37
    • 0344436677 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using specific language to describe risk and probability
    • Patt, AG, and, Schrag, DP. 2003. Using specific language to describe risk and probability. Climatic Change., 61 (1): 17-30.
    • (2003) Climatic Change. , vol.61 , Issue.1 , pp. 17-30
    • Patt, A.G.1    Schrag, D.P.2
  • 38
    • 0346906096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relative contributions of injury severity and likelihood information on hazard-risk judgments and warning compliance
    • Wogalter, MA, Young, SL, Brelsford, JW, and, Barlow, T. 1999. The relative contributions of injury severity and likelihood information on hazard-risk judgments and warning compliance. J Safety Res., 30 (3): 151-162.
    • (1999) J Safety Res. , vol.30 , Issue.3 , pp. 151-162
    • Wogalter, M.A.1    Young, S.L.2    Brelsford, J.W.3    Barlow, T.4
  • 39
    • 84972263221 scopus 로고
    • A review of human linguistic probability processing: General principles and empirical evidence
    • Wallsten, TS, and, Budescu, DV. 1995. A review of human linguistic probability processing: General principles and empirical evidence. Knowl Eng Rev., 10 (1): 43-62.
    • (1995) Knowl Eng Rev. , vol.10 , Issue.1 , pp. 43-62
    • Wallsten, T.S.1    Budescu, D.V.2
  • 40
    • 0032338535 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of context in the communication of uncertain beliefs
    • Fox, CR, and, Irwin, JR. 1998. The role of context in the communication of uncertain beliefs. Basic Appl Soc Psych., 20 (1): 57-70.
    • (1998) Basic Appl Soc Psych. , vol.20 , Issue.1 , pp. 57-70
    • Fox, C.R.1    Irwin, J.R.2
  • 41
    • 35148853995 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Communicating the uncertainty of harms and benefits of medical interventions
    • Politi, MC, Han, PJK, and, Col, NF. 2007. Communicating the uncertainty of harms and benefits of medical interventions. Medi Decis Making., 27 (5): 681-695.
    • (2007) Medi Decis Making. , vol.27 , Issue.5 , pp. 681-695
    • Politi, M.C.1    Han, P.J.K.2    Col, N.F.3
  • 42
    • 38249019355 scopus 로고
    • Dyadic decisions with numerical and verbal probabilities
    • Budescu, DV, and, Wallsten, TS. 1990. Dyadic decisions with numerical and verbal probabilities. Organ Behav Hum Dec., 46 (2): 240-263.
    • (1990) Organ Behav Hum Dec. , vol.46 , Issue.2 , pp. 240-263
    • Budescu, D.V.1    Wallsten, T.S.2
  • 43
    • 1842477642 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • You say probable and i say likely: Improving interpersonal communication with verbal probability phrases
    • Karelitz, TM, and, Budescu, DV. 2004. You say probable and I say likely: improving interpersonal communication with verbal probability phrases. J Exp Psychol-Appl., 10 (1): 25-41.
    • (2004) J Exp Psychol-Appl. , vol.10 , Issue.1 , pp. 25-41
    • Karelitz, T.M.1    Budescu, D.V.2
  • 44
    • 58849089025 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probability information in risk communication: A review of the research literature
    • Visschers, VHM, Meertens, RM, Passchier, WWF, and, De Vries, NNK. 2009. Probability information in risk communication: a review of the research literature. Risk Anal., 29 (2): 267-287.
    • (2009) Risk Anal. , vol.29 , Issue.2 , pp. 267-287
    • Visschers, V.H.M.1    Meertens, R.M.2    Passchier, W.W.F.3    De Vries, N.N.K.4
  • 45
    • 62349083045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving communication of uncertainty in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    • Budescu, DV, Broomell, S, and, Por, HH. 2009. Improving communication of uncertainty in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Psychol Sci., 20 (3): 299-308.
    • (2009) Psychol Sci. , vol.20 , Issue.3 , pp. 299-308
    • Budescu, D.V.1    Broomell, S.2    Por, H.H.3
  • 46
    • 84862129809 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effective communicating of uncertainty in the IPCC reports
    • DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0330-3
    • Budescu DV. Por HH. Broomell S. Effective communicating of uncertainty in the IPCC reports. Climatic Change. 2011;DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0330-3.
    • (2011) Climatic Change.
    • Budescu, D.V.1    Por, H.H.2    Broomell, S.3
  • 47
    • 49549090850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Communicating opinion evidence in the forensic identification sciences: Accuracy and impact
    • McQuiston-Surrett, D, and, Saks, MJ. 2007. Communicating opinion evidence in the forensic identification sciences: Accuracy and impact. Hastings LJ., 59: 1159-1190.
    • (2007) Hastings LJ. , vol.59 , pp. 1159-1190
    • McQuiston-Surrett, D.1    Saks, M.J.2
  • 48
    • 84882364588 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The expression and interpretation of uncertain forensic science evidence: Verbal equivalence, evidence strength and the weak evidence effect
    • In press
    • Martire KA, Kemp RI, Watkins I, Sayle MA, Newell BR. The expression and interpretation of uncertain forensic science evidence: verbal equivalence, evidence strength and the weak evidence effect. Law Human Behav. In press.
    • Law Human Behav
    • Martire, K.A.1    Kemp, R.I.2    Watkins, I.3    Ma, S.4    Newell, B.R.5
  • 49
    • 79953322820 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When good evidence goes bad: The weak evidence effect in judgment and decision-making
    • Fernbach, PM, Darlow, A, and, Sloman, SA. 2011. When good evidence goes bad: the weak evidence effect in judgment and decision-making. Cognition., 119 (3): 459-467.
    • (2011) Cognition. , vol.119 , Issue.3 , pp. 459-467
    • Fernbach, P.M.1    Darlow, A.2    Sloman, S.A.3
  • 50
    • 0036103467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When negative evidence increases confidence: Change in belief after hearing two sides of a dispute
    • McKenzie, CRM, Lee, SM, and, Chen, KK. 2002. When negative evidence increases confidence: Change in belief after hearing two sides of a dispute. J Behav Decis Making., 15 (1): 1-18.
    • (2002) J Behav Decis Making. , vol.15 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-18
    • McKenzie, C.R.M.1    Lee, S.M.2    Chen, K.K.3
  • 51
    • 0032343767 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Suppressive influence of weak arguments in mixed-quality messages: An exploration of mechanisms via argument rating, pretesting, and order effects
    • Friedrich, J., and, Smith, P. 1998. Suppressive influence of weak arguments in mixed-quality messages: an exploration of mechanisms via argument rating, pretesting, and order effects. Basic Appl Soc Psych., 20 (4): 293-304.
    • (1998) Basic Appl Soc Psych. , vol.20 , Issue.4 , pp. 293-304
    • Friedrich, J.1    Smith, P.2
  • 54
    • 84972511825 scopus 로고
    • Quantifying probabilistic expressions
    • Mosteller, F, and, Youtz, C. 1990. Quantifying probabilistic expressions. Stat Sci., 5 (1): 2-12.
    • (1990) Stat Sci. , vol.5 , Issue.1 , pp. 2-12
    • Mosteller, F.1    Youtz, C.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.