Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 118, Issue 4, 2013, Pages 1613-1623

  Biasutti, M ^a  

^a Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

Author keywords

climate change; CMIP5; monsoon; Sahel

Indexed keywords

ARID REGIONS; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELS; DRYING; GREENHOUSE GASES; RAIN;

ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS; CMIP5; HISTORICAL SIMULATION; LINEAR SUPERPOSITIONS; MONSOON; PRECIPITATION CHANGE; SAHEL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST);

COMPUTER SIMULATION;

ANTHROPOGENIC EFFECT; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE FORCING; GREENHOUSE GAS; NATURE-SOCIETY RELATIONS; RAINFALL; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SEASONALITY; SEMIARID REGION; TIMESCALE; TREND ANALYSIS; TWENTIETH CENTURY; WARMING;

SAHARA; WEST AFRICA;

EID: 84880896940     PISSN: None     EISSN: 21698996     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50206     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Ackerley D., B. B. B. Booth, S. H. E. Knight, E. J. Highwood, D. J. Frame, M. R. Allen, and, D. P. Rowell, Sensitivity of twentieth-century Sahel rainfall to sulfate aerosol and CO 2forcing (2011), J. Climate, 24, 4999-5014.
2. Biasutti M., (2011), Atmospheric science: A man-made drought, Nature Climate Change., 1, 197-198.
3. Biasutti M., and, A. Giannini, (2006), Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L11,706.
4. Biasutti M., and, A. Sobel, (2009), Delayed seasonal cycle and African monsoon in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23,707, doi:10.1029/2009GL041303.
5. Biasutti M., D. S. Battisti, and, E. S. Sarachik, (2003), The annual cycle over the tropical Atlantic, South America, and Africa, J. Climate, 2491-2508.
6. Biasutti M., D. S. Battisti, and, E. S. Sarachik, (2005), Terrestrial influence on the annual cycle of the Atlantic ITCZ, J. Climate, 18, 211-228.
7. Biasutti M., I. M. Held, A. H. Sobel, and, A. Giannini, (2008), SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, J. Climate, 21, 3471-3486.
8. Biasutti M., A. H. Sobel, and, S. J. Camargo, (2009), The role of the Sahara Low in summertime Sahel rainfall variability and change in the CMIP3 models, J. Climate, 22, 5755-5771.
9. Booth B. B. B., N. J. Dunstone, P. R. Halloran, T. Andrews, and, N. Bellouin, (2012), Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 484, 228-232.
10. Brooks G. E., (1998), Climate and History in West Africa, in Transformations in Africa: Essays on Africa's Later Past, edited by, G. Connah, pp. 139-159, University Press, London-Washington.
11. Caminade C., and, L. Terray, (2010), Twentieth century Sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM, and future changes, Climate Dynamics, 35, 75-94.
12. Cook K., and, E. K. Vizy, (2006), Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: 20th and 21st century simulations, J. Climate, 3681-3703.
13. Deser C., A. Phillips, V. Bourdette, and, H. Teng, (2010), Uncertainty in climate change projections: the role of internal variability, Climate Dynamics.
14. Douville H., (2005), Limitations of time-slice experiments for predicting regional climate change over South Asia, Climate Dynamics, 24, 373-391.
15. Dwyer J. G., M. Biasutti, and, A. H. Sobel, (2012), Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature, J. Climate, 25, 6359-6374.
16. Evan A., (2012), Climate science: Aerosols and Atlantic aberrations, Nature, 484, 170-171.
17. Friedlingstein P., et al. (2006), Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: Results from the C4MIP model intercomparison, J. Climate, 3337-3353.
18. Fu R., R. E. Dickinson, M. Chen, and, H. Wang, (2001), How do tropical sea surface temperatures influence the seasonal distribution of precipitation in the equatorial Amazon?, J. Climate, 14, 4003-4026.
19. Giannini A., (2010), Mechanisms of climate change in the semiarid African Sahel: the local view, J. Climate, 23, 743-756.
20. Giannini A., R. Saravanan, and, P. Chang, (2003), Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scale, Science, 302, 1027-1030.
21. Haarsma R. J., F. M. Selten, S. L. Weber, and, M. Kliphuis, (2005), Sahel rainfall variability and response to greenhouse warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L17,702.
22. Hagos S., and, K. Cook, (2008), Ocean warming and late-twentieth-century Sahel drought and recovery, J. Climate, 21, 3797-3814.
23. Held I. M., and, B. J. Soden, (2006), Robust response of the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Climate, 19, 5686-5699.
24. Held I. M., T. L. Delworth, J. Lu, K. L. Findell, and, T. R. Knutson, (2005), Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 102, 17, 891-17,896.
25. Hoerling M., J. Hurrell, J. Eischeid, and, A. Phillips, (2006), Detection and attribution of 20th century northern and southern African rainfall change, J. Climate, 19, 3989-4008.
26. Hulme M., (1992), A 1951-80 global land precipitation climatology for the evaluation of general circulation models, Climate Dyn., 7, 57-72.
27. Joly M., A. Voldoire, H. Douville, P. Terray, and, J.-F. Royer, (2007), African monsoon teleconnections with tropical SSTs: validation and evolution in a set of IPCC4 simulations, Climate Dynamics, 29, 1-20.
28. Klocke D., R. Pincus, and, J. Quaas, (2011), On constraining estimates of climate sensitivity with present-day observations through model weighting, J. Climate, 24, 6092-6099.
29. Kucharski F., N. Zeng, and, E. Kalnay, (2012), A further assessment of vegetation feedback on decadal Sahel rainfall variability, Climate Dynamics.
30. Lau K. M., S. S. P. Shen, K.-M. Kim, and, H. Wang, (2005), A multimodel study of the twentieth-century simulations of Sahel drought from the 1970s to 1990s, J. Geophys. Res., 111.
31. Levy II.H., M. D. Schwarzkopf, L. Horowitz, V. Ramaswamy, and, K. L. Findell, (2008), Strong sensitivity of late 21st century climate to projected changes in short-lived air pollutants, J. Geophys. Res., D06, 102.
32. Levy II.H., L. W. Horowitz, M. D. Schwarzkopf, Y. Ming, J.-C. Golaz, V. Naik, and, V. Ramaswamy, (2012), The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate, Journal of Geophysical Research, Submitted, 1-46.
33. Li T., and, S. G. H. Philander, (1997), On the seasonal cycle of the equatorial Atlantic, J. Climate, 10, 813-817.
34. Lintner B. R., and, J. Neelin, (2007), A prototype for convective margin shifts, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L05,812.
35. Mahowald N. M., et al. (2010), Observed 20th century desert dust variability: impact on climate and biogeochemistry, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 10, 875-10,893.
36. Mitchell T., and, P. Jones, (2005), An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids, International journal of climatology, 25, 693-712.
37. Mohino E., S. Janicot, and, J. Bader, (2011), Sahel rainfall and decadal to multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability, Climate Dynamics, 37, 419-440.
38. Neelin J. D., C. Chou, and, H. Su, (2003), Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Nino teleconnections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 2275.
39. Nicholson S., (1978), Climatic variations in the Sahel and other African regions during the past five centuries, J. Arid Environ., 3-24.
40. Nicholson S. E., B. Some, and, B. Kone, (2000), An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa, including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Niño and the 1998 La Niña years, J. Climate, 13, 2628-2640.
41. Patricola C. M., and, K. Cook, (2010), Sub-Saharan Northern African climate at the end of the twenty-first century: forcing factors and climate change processes, Climate Dynamics, 37, 1165-1188.
42. Peterson T. C., and, R. S. Vose, (1997), An overview of the global historical climatology network temperature database, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78, 2837-2849.
43. Power S. B., F. Delage, R. Colman, and, A. Moise, (2012), Consensus on twenty-first-century rainfall projections in climate models more widespread than previously thought, J. Climate, 25, 3792-3809.
44. Riahi K., S. Rao, V. Krey, C. Cho, V. Chirkov, G. Fischer, G. Kindermann, N. Nakicenovic, and, P. Rafaj, (2011), RCP 8.5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions, Clim. Chang., 109, 33-57.
45. Richter I., and, S.-P. Xie, (2008), On the origin of equatorial Atlantic biases in coupled general circulation models, Climate Dynamics, 31, 587-598.
46. Roehrig R., D. Bouniol, F. Guichard, F. Hourdin, and, J. L. Redelsperger, (2013), The present and future of the West African monsoon: a process-oriented assessment of CMIP5 simulations along the AMMA transect, J. Climate, pp. 1-88.
47. Ruti P., et al. (2011), The west african climate system: a review of the amma model inter-comparison initiatives, Atmospheric Science Letters, 116-122.
48. Ruti P. M., and, A. Dell'Aquila, (2010), The twentieth century African easterly waves in reanalysis systems and IPCC simulations, from intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability, Climate Dynamics, 35, 1099-1117.
49. Scaife A. A., et al. (2008), The CLIVAR C20C project: selected twentieth century climate events, Clim Dyn.
50. Seth A., S. A. Rauscher, M. Rojas, A. Giannini, and, S. J. Camargo, (2010), Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?, Climatic Change Letters, accepted.
51. Shanahan T. M., J. T. Overpeck, K. J. Anchukaitis, J. W. Beck, J. E. Cole, D. L. Dettman, J. A. Peck, C. A. Scholz, and, J. W. King, (2009), Atlantic forcing of persistent drought in West Africa, Science, 324, 377-380.
52. Skinner C. B., M. Ashfaq, and, N. S. Diffenbaugh, (2012), Influence of twenty-first-century atmospheric and sea surface temperature forcing on west African Climate, J. Climate, 25, 527-542.
53. Stevens B., and, G. Feingold, (2009), Untangling aerosol effects on clouds and precipitation in a buffered system, Nature, 461, 607-613.
54. Taylor C. M., A. Gounou, F. Guichard, P. P. Harris, R. J. Ellis, F. Couvreux, and, M. De Kauwe, (2011), Frequency of Sahelian storm initiation enhanced over mesoscale soil-moisture patterns, Nat. Geosci., 4, 430-433.
55. Taylor K. E., R. J. Stouffer, and, G. A. Meehl, (2012), An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 93, 485-498.
56. Ting M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager, and, C. Li, (2009), Forced and internal twentieth-century SST trends in the North Atlantic, J. Climate, 22, 1469-1481.
57. Weigel A. P., R. Knutti, M. A. Liniger, and, C. Appenzeller, (2010), Risks of Model Weighting in Multimodel Climate Projections, J. Climate, 23, 4175-4191.
58. Yoshioka M., N. M. Mahowald, A. J. Conley, W. D. Collins, D. W. Fillmore, C. S. Zender, and, D. B. Coleman, (2007), Impact of Desert Dust Radiative Forcing on Sahel Precipitation: relative importance of dust compared to sea surface temperature variations, vegetation changes, and greenhouse gas warming, J. Climate, 20, 1445-1467.
59. Zeng N., J. D. Neelin, K.-M. Lau, and, C. J. Tucker, (1999), Enhancement of interdecadal climate variability in the Sahel by vegetation interaction, Science, 286, 1537-1540.
60. Zhang C., P. Woodworth, and, G. Gu, (2006), The seasonal cycle in the lower troposphere over West Africa from sounding observations, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 132, 2561-2584.