Twentieth century sahel rainfall variability as simulated by the ARPEGE AGCM, and future changes

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 35, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 75-94

  Caminade, C ^a   Terray, L ^a  

^a CERFACS   (France)

Author keywords

Climate scenarios; Decadal to multi decadal variability; SST and anthropogenic forcing; Teleconnection; West African monsoon

Indexed keywords

CONVECTIVE SYSTEM; DROUGHT; MONSOON; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; TELECONNECTION; TROPOSPHERE; TWENTIETH CENTURY; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

PACIFIC OCEAN; SAHEL [SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA];

EID: 77954142124     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0545-4     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Bader J, Latif M (2003) The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the north Atlantic oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 30(22): 2169. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL018426.
2. Biasutti M, Giannini A (2006) Robust Sahel drying in response to late twentieth century forcings. Geophys Res Lett 33. doi: 10. 1029/2006GLO26067.
3. Biasutti M, Held IM, Giannini A, Sobel AH (2008) SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. J Clim (submitted). http://www. gfdl. noaa. gov/~ih/papers/biasutti_etal. pdf
4. Bougeault P (1985) A simple parametrization of the large scale effects of deep cumulus convection. Mon Weather Rev 113: 2108-2121. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0493(1985)113 <2108: ASPOTL >2.0.CO;2.
5. Camberlin P, Janicot S, Poccard I (2001) Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnections between Africa and tropical Ocean surface temperature: Atlantic versus ENSO. Int J Clim 21: 973-1005. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 673.
6. Caminade C, Terray L (2006) Influence of increased greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols concentration upon diurnal temperature range over Africa at the end of the twentieth century. Geophys Res Lett 33: L15703. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026381.
7. Charney JG, Quirk WJ, Show SH, Kornfield J (1977) A comparative study of the effects of albedo change on drought in semiarid regions. J Atmos Sci 34: 1366-1385. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0469(1977)034 <1366: ACSOTE >2.0. CO;2.
8. Chiang J, Sobel A (2002) Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate. J Clim 15: 2616-2631. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(2002)015 <2616: TTTVCB>2.0. CO;2.
9. Chou C, Neelin JD (2004) Mechanisms of global warming impacts on regional tropical precipitation. J Clim 17(13): 2688-2701. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(2004)017 <2688: MOGWIO >2.0. CO;2.
10. Déqué M (1999) Documentation ARPEGE-CLIMAT. Tech report Centre National de Recherche Météorologiques, Météo-France, Toulouse, France.
11. Déqué M, Dreveton C, Braun A, Cariolle D (1994) The climate version of the ARPEGE-IFS: a contribution of the French community climate modeling. Clim Dyn 10: 249-266. doi: 10. 1007/BF00208992.
12. Douville H (2003) Assesing the influence of soil moisture on seasonal climate variability with AGCMs. J Clim 14: 1044-1066.
13. Douville H, Salas Mélia D, Tytéca S (2006) On the tropical origin of uncertainties in the global land precipitation response to global warming. Clim Dyn 26: 367-385. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-005-0088-2.
14. Folland CK, Palmer TN, Parker DE (1986) Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea surface temperature 1901-1985. Nature 320: 602-607. doi: 10. 1038/320602a0.
15. Fontaine B, Janicot S (1992) Wind field coherence and its variations over West Africa. J Clim 5: 512-524. doi: 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005 <0512: WFCAIV >2.0.CO;2.
16. Giannini A, Saravanan R, Chang P (2003) Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science 302: 1027-1030. doi: 10. 1126/science. 1089357.
17. Grist JP, Nicholson SE (2001) A study of dynamics factor influencing the rainfall variability in the West African Sahel. J Clim 14: 1337-1359. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(2001)014<1337: ASOTDF> 2. 0. CO; 2.
18. Haarsma RJ, Selten FM, Weber SL, Kliphuis M (2005) Sahel rainfall and response to greenhouse warming. Geophys Res Lett 32. doi: 10. 1029/2005GLO23232.
19. Hastenrath S (1990) Decadal-scale changes of the circulation in the tropical Atlantic sector associated with Sahel drought. Int J Clim 10: 459-472. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 3370100504.
20. Held IM, Delworth TL, Lu J, Findell KL, Knutson TR (2005) Simulation of Sahel drought in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 102: 17891-17896. doi: 10. 1073/pnas. 0509057102.
21. Herceg D, Sobel A, Sun L (2007) Regional modelling of decadal rainfall variability over the Sahel. Clim Dyn 29: 88-99. doi: 10. 1007/s00382-006-0218-5.
22. Hoerling MP, Hurrel JW, Eischeid J (2006) Detection and attribution of twentieth century northern and southern Africa monsoon change. J Clim 19: 3989-4008. doi:10.1175/JCLI3842. 1.
23. Janicot S, Trzaska S, Poccard I (2001) Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations. Clim Dyn 18: 303-320. doi: 10. 1007/s003820100172.
24. Joly M, Voldoire A, Douville H, Terray P, Royer JF (2007) African monsoon teleconnections with tropical SSTs: validation and evolution in a set of IPCC4 simulations. Clim Dyn. doi:0.1007/s00382-006-0215-8.
25. Kinter J, Fennessy M, Krishnamurphy V, Marx L (2004) An evaluation of the apparent interdecadal shift in the tropical divergent circulation in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. J Clim 17: 349-361. doi:10. 1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0349: AEOTAI> 2.0.CO;2.
26. Lamb PJ (1978) Large scale tropical surface circulation patterns associated with sub-Saharan weather anomalies. Tellus 30: 240-251.
27. Lau KM, Shen SSP, Kim KM, Wang (2006) A multimodel study of the twentieth century simulations of Sahel drought from the 1970s to 1990s. J Geophys Res 11: DO7111. doi: 10. 1029/2005JD006821.
28. Louis JF, Tiedtke M, Geleyn JF (1981) A short history of the operational PBL-parameterization at ECMWF. In: ECMWF workshop planetary boundary layer parameterization, 25-27 Nov 1981, ECMWF, Reading, UK, pp 59-80.
29. Lu J, Delworth T (2005) Oceanic forcing of the late twentieth century Sahel drought. Geophys Res Lett 32. doi: 10.1029/2005GLO23316.
30. Mahfouf JF, Manzi AO, Noilhan J, Giordani H, Déqué M (1995) The land surface scheme ISBA within the Météo France climate model ARPEGE. Part I: implementation and preliminary results. J Clim 8: 2039-2057. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2039: TLSSIW> 2. 0. CO; 2.
31. Mehta VM, Suarez MJ, Manganello JV, Delworth TL (2000) Oceanic influence on the north Atlantic oscillation and associated northern Hemisphere climate variations: 1959-1993. Geophys Res Lett 27(1): 121-124. doi: 10. 1029/1999GL002381.
32. Mitchell T, Jones P (2005) An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high resolution grids. Int J Clim 25: 693-712. doi: 10. 1002/joc. 1181.
33. Morcrette JJ (1990) Impact of changes to radiation transfer parametrizations plus cloud optical properties in the ECMWF model. Mon Weather Rev 118: 847-873. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0493(1990)118<0847: IOCTTR> 2. 0. CO; 2.
34. Neelin JD, Chou C, Su H (2003) Tropical drought regions in global warming and El Niño teleconnections. Geophys Res Lett 30(24): 2275. doi: 10. 1029/2003GL018625.
35. Noilhan J, Planton S (1989) A simple parameterization of land surface processes for meteorological models. Mon Weather Rev 117: 536-549. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0493(1989)117<0536: ASPOLS> 2. 0. CO; 2.
36. Palmer TN (1986) Influence of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans on Sahel rainfall. Nature 322: 251-253. doi: 10. 1038/322251a0.
37. Poccard I, Janicot S, Camberlin P (2000) Comparison of rainfall structures between NCEP and NCAR reanalysis and observed data over Africa. Clim Dyn 16: 897-915. doi: 10. 1007/s003820000087.
38. Ricard JL, Royer JF (1993) A statistical cloud scheme for use in AGCM. Ann Geophys 11: 1095-1115.
39. Rowell DP (2001) Teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and the Sahel. Q J R Meteorol Soc 127: 1683-1706. doi: 10. 1002/qj. 49712757512.
40. Rowell DP, Zwiers FW (1999) The global distribution of sources of atmospheric decadal variability and mechanisms over the tropical Pacific and southern North America. Clim Dyn 15: 751-772. doi: 10. 1007/s003820050314.
41. Smith T, Reynolds R (2004) Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997). J Clim 17: 2466-2477. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(2004)017<2466: IEROS> 2. 0. CO; 2.
42. Su H, Neelin J, Meyerson J (2005) Mechanism for lagged atmospheric response to ENSO SST forcing. J Clim 18: 4195-4215. doi: 10. 1175/JCLI3514. 1.
43. Yulaeva E, Wallace J (1994) The signature of ENSO in global temperature and precipitation fields derived from the microwave sounding unit. J Clim 7: 1719-1736. doi: 10. 1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1719: TSOEIG> 2. 0. CO; 2.
44. Zhang R, Delworth TL (2006) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett 33: L17712. doi: 10. 1029/2006GL026267.
45. Zwiers F (1996) Interannual variability and predictability in an ensemble of AMIP climate simulations conducted with the CCC GCM2. Clim Dyn 12: 825-848. doi: 10. 1007/s003820050146.