메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 55, Issue 3, 2013, Pages 181-200

Methodological aspects of the validation of decadal predictions

Author keywords

Bias drift correction; Cross validation; Decadal predictions; Detrending; Jackknife; Sampling uncertainty; Seasonal forecasts

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE VARIABILITY; CROSS VALIDATION; DATA SETS; DETRENDING; DRIFT-CORRECTION METHODS; FIRST YEAR; GLOBAL ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURE; GLOBAL-MEAN TEMPERATURE; HINDCASTS; JACKKNIFE; LEADTIME; LEAVE-ONE-OUT; LOCAL SCALE; METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS; MODEL DRIFT; PROJECT DATABASE; SEASONAL FORECASTING; SEASONAL FORECASTS; TOY MODELS;

EID: 84873054108     PISSN: 0936577X     EISSN: 16161572     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3354/cr01135     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (31)

References (53)
  • 1
    • 62749178972 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill
    • doi:10.1029/2008GL035561
    • Balmaseda M, Anderson D (2009) Impact of initialization strategies and observations on seasonal forecast skill. Geophys Res Lett 36: L01701, doi:10.1029/2008GL035561
    • (2009) Geophys Res Lett , vol.36
    • Balmaseda, M.1    Anderson, D.2
  • 2
    • 0027525728 scopus 로고
    • A degeneracy in cross-validated skill in regression-based forecasts
    • Barnston A, van den Dool H (1993) A degeneracy in crossvalidated skill in regression-based forecasts. J Clim 6: 963-977 (Pubitemid 23384149)
    • (1993) Journal of Climate , vol.6 , Issue.5 , pp. 963-977
    • Barnston, A.G.1    Van Den Dool, H.2
  • 4
    • 79955446270 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
    • Dee D, Uppala S, Simmons A, Berrisford P and others (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137: 553-597
    • (2011) Q J R Meteorol Soc , vol.137 , pp. 553-597
    • Dee, D.1    Uppala, S.2    Simmons, A.3    Berrisford, P.4
  • 5
    • 18544362809 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting - II. Calibration and combination
    • DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2005.00104.x
    • Doblas-Reyes F, Hagedorn R, Palmer T (2005) The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. II. Calibration and combination. Tellus A 57: 234-252 (Pubitemid 40659621)
    • (2005) Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography , vol.57 , Issue.3 , pp. 234-252
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Hagedorn, R.2    Palmer, T.N.3
  • 7
    • 80054809984 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: Impact of ocean observations
    • doi:10.1029/2010JD015394
    • Doblas-Reyes FJ, Balmaseda MA, Weisheimer A, Palmer TN (2011) Decadal climate prediction with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts coupled forecast system: impact of ocean observations. J Geophys Res 116: D19111, doi:10.1029/2010JD015394
    • (2011) J Geophys Res , vol.116
    • Doblas-Reyes, F.J.1    Balmaseda, M.A.2    Weisheimer, A.3    Palmer, T.N.4
  • 8
    • 45749146649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise
    • DOI 10.1038/nature07080, PII NATURE07080
    • Domingues CM, Church JA, White NJ, Gleckler PJ, Wijffels SE, Barker PM, Dunn JR (2008) Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453: 1090-1093 (Pubitemid 351871742)
    • (2008) Nature , vol.453 , Issue.7198 , pp. 1090-1093
    • Domingues, C.M.1    Church, J.A.2    White, N.J.3    Gleckler, P.J.4    Wijffels, S.E.5    Barker, P.M.6    Dunn, J.R.7
  • 9
    • 79960770060 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean
    • doi:10.1029/2011GL047949
    • Dunstone NJ, Smith DM, Eade R (2011) Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 38: L14701, doi:10.1029/2011GL047949
    • (2011) Geophys Res Lett , vol.38
    • Dunstone, N.J.1    Smith, D.M.2    Eade, R.3
  • 10
    • 84945737762 scopus 로고
    • A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation
    • Efron B, Gong G (1983) A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation. Am Stat 37: 36-48
    • (1983) Am Stat , vol.37 , pp. 36-48
    • Efron, B.1    Gong, G.2
  • 12
    • 84867101035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast
    • García-Serrano J, Doblas-Reyes FJ (2012) On the assessment of near-surface global temperature and North Atlantic multi-decadal variability in the ENSEMBLES decadal hindcast. Clim Dyn 39: 2025-2040
    • (2012) Clim Dyn , vol.39 , pp. 2025-2040
    • García-Serrano, J.1    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.2
  • 14
    • 84873048475 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • International CLIVAR Project Office. International CLIVAR Project Office, CLIVAR Publication Series
    • International CLIVAR Project Office (2011) Decadal and bias correction for decadal climate predictions. International CLIVAR Project Office, CLIVAR Publication Series 150
    • (2011) Decadal and Bias Correction for Decadal Climate Predictions , vol.150
  • 16
    • 65149096767 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with an XBT depth bias correction
    • Ishii M, Kimoto M (2009) Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with an XBT depth bias correction. J Oceanogr 65: 287-299
    • (2009) J Oceanogr , vol.65 , pp. 287-299
    • Ishii, M.1    Kimoto, M.2
  • 17
    • 43049138035 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector
    • DOI 10.1038/nature06921, PII NATURE06921
    • Keenlyside NS, LatifM, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453: 84-88 (Pubitemid 351630335)
    • (2008) Nature , vol.453 , Issue.7191 , pp. 84-88
    • Keenlyside, N.S.1    Latif, M.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Kornblueh, L.4    Roeckner, E.5
  • 18
    • 84861372930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluation of shortterm climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts
    • doi: 10.1029/2012GL051644
    • Kim H, Webster PJ, Curry JA (2012) Evaluation of shortterm climate change prediction in multi-model CMIP5 decadal hindcasts. Geophys Res Lett 39: L10701, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051644
    • (2012) Geophys Res Lett , vol.39
    • Kim, H.1    Webster, P.J.2    Curry, J.A.3
  • 19
    • 79955009408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A simple empirical model for decadal climate prediction
    • Krueger O, Von Storch J (2011) A simple empirical model for decadal climate prediction. J Clim 24: 1276-1283
    • (2011) J Clim , vol.24 , pp. 1276-1283
    • Krueger, O.1    Von Storch, J.2
  • 20
    • 33846134354 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales
    • DOI 10.1175/JCLI3945.1
    • Latif M, Collins M, Pohlmann H, Keenlyside NS (2006) Review of predictability studies of Atlantic sector climate on decadal time scales. J Clim 19: 5971-5987 (Pubitemid 46085089)
    • (2006) Journal of Climate , vol.19 , Issue.23 , pp. 5971-5987
    • Latif, M.1    Collins, M.2    Pohlmann, H.3    Keenlyside, N.4
  • 21
    • 84858231028 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics of decadal climate variability and implications for its prediction
    • Hall J, Harrison DE, Stammer D (eds). Publication WPP-306, ESA. doi:10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.53
    • Latif M, Delworth T, Dommenget D, Drange H and others (2010) Dynamics of decadal climate variability and implications for its prediction. In: Hall J, Harrison DE, Stammer D (eds) Proc OceanObs09: sustained ocean observations and information for society, Vol 2. Publication WPP-306, ESA, doi:10.5270/ OceanObs09.cwp.53
    • (2010) Proc OceanObs09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society , vol.2
    • Latif, M.1    Delworth, T.2    Dommenget, D.3    Drange, H.4
  • 22
    • 70350007926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?
    • doi:10.1029/2009GL038932
    • Lean J, Rind D (2009) How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades? Geophys Res Lett 36: L15708, doi:10.1029/2009GL038932
    • (2009) Geophys Res Lett , vol.36
    • Lean, J.1    Rind, D.2
  • 24
    • 40849118556 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model
    • DOI 10.1175/2007JCLI1412.1
    • Luo JJ, Masson S, Behera SK, Yamagata T (2008) Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Clim 21: 84-93 (Pubitemid 351395660)
    • (2008) Journal of Climate , vol.21 , Issue.1 , pp. 84-93
    • Luo, J.-J.1    Masson, S.2    Behera, S.K.3    Yamagata, T.4
  • 25
    • 84873050352 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal and longer-range forecasts
    • Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (eds), 2nd edn. Wiley, Chichester
    • Mason SJ (2011) Seasonal and longer-range forecasts. In: Jolliffe IT, Stephenson DB (eds) Forecast verification: a practioner's guide in atmospheric science, 2nd edn. Wiley, Chichester, p 203-220
    • (2011) Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science , pp. 203-220
    • Mason, S.J.1
  • 27
    • 79953803365 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial-scale dependence of climate model performance in the CMIP3 ensemble
    • Masson D, Knutti R (2011) Spatial-scale dependence of climate model performance in the CMIP3 ensemble. J Clim 24: 2680-2692
    • (2011) J Clim , vol.24 , pp. 2680-2692
    • Masson, D.1    Knutti, R.2
  • 28
    • 84870049578 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM/MPI-OM model
    • Matei D, Pohlmann H, Jungclaus J, Müller W, Haak H, Marotzke J (2012) Two tales of initializing decadal climate prediction experiments with the ECHAM/MPI-OM model. J Clim 25:8502-8523
    • (2012) J Clim , vol.25 , pp. 8502-8523
    • Matei, D.1    Pohlmann, H.2    Jungclaus, J.3    Müller, W.4    Haak, H.5    Marotzke, J.6
  • 30
    • 76649101457 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction
    • Mochizuki T, Ishii M, Kimoto M, Chikamoto Y and others (2010) Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107: 1833-1837
    • (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA , vol.107 , pp. 1833-1837
    • Mochizuki, T.1    Ishii, M.2    Kimoto, M.3    Chikamoto, Y.4
  • 31
  • 32
    • 68749116591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic
    • Pohlmann H, Jungclaus J, Kohl A, Stammer D, Marotzke J (2009) Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: effects on the North Atlantic. J Clim 22: 3926-3938
    • (2009) J Clim , vol.22 , pp. 3926-3938
    • Pohlmann, H.1    Jungclaus, J.2    Kohl, A.3    Stammer, D.4    Marotzke, J.5
  • 33
    • 84055182926 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model
    • doi:10.1029/2011GL049573
    • Scaife AA, Copsey D, Gordon C, Harris C and others (2011) Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model. Geophys Res Lett 38: L23703, doi:10.1029/2011GL049573
    • (2011) Geophys Res Lett , vol.38
    • Scaife, A.A.1    Copsey, D.2    Gordon, C.3    Harris, C.4
  • 34
    • 34547903564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model
    • DOI 10.1126/science.1139540
    • Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman A, Folland C, Harris G, Mur-phy J (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317: 796-799 (Pubitemid 47257915)
    • (2007) Science , vol.317 , Issue.5839 , pp. 796-799
    • Smith, D.M.1    Cusack, S.2    Colman, A.W.3    Folland, C.K.4    Harris, G.R.5    Murphy, J.M.6
  • 36
    • 79251571111 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal forced climate variability: Implications for prediction
    • Solomon A, Goddard L, Kumar A, Carton J and others (2011) Distinguishing the roles of natural and anthropogenically forced decadal forced climate variability: implications for prediction. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92: 141-156
    • (2011) Bull Am Meteorol Soc , vol.92 , pp. 141-156
    • Solomon, A.1    Goddard, L.2    Kumar, A.3    Carton, J.4
  • 37
    • 0001112454 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the presence of climate drift
    • Stockdale TN (1997) Coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts in the presence of climate drift. Mon Weather Rev 125: 809-818
    • (1997) Mon Weather Rev , vol.125 , pp. 809-818
    • Stockdale, T.N.1
  • 40
    • 78650108146 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • ENSEMBLES: Climate change and its impacts: Summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project
    • van der Linden P, Mitchell J (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
    • (2009) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter
    • Van Der Linden, P.1    Mitchell, J.2
  • 42
    • 78650827626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Needs assessment for climate information on decadal timescales and longer
    • Vera C, Barange M, Dube O, Goddard L and others (2010) Needs assessment for climate information on decadal timescales and longer. Procedia Environ Sci 1: 275-286
    • (2010) Procedia Environ Sci , vol.1 , pp. 275-286
    • Vera, C.1    Barange, M.2    Dube, O.3    Goddard, L.4
  • 45
    • 67649443942 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comment on 'Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?'
    • Weigel AP, Bowler N (2009) Comment on 'Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?'. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135: 535-539
    • (2009) Q J R Meteorol Soc , vol.135 , pp. 535-539
    • Weigel, A.P.1    Bowler, N.2
  • 46
    • 33846673525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores
    • DOI 10.1175/MWR3280.1
    • Weigel AP, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2007) The discrete Brier and ranked probability skill scores. Mon Weather Rev 135: 118-124 (Pubitemid 46188846)
    • (2007) Monthly Weather Review , vol.135 , Issue.1 , pp. 118-124
    • Weigel, A.P.1    Liniger, M.A.2    Appenzeller, C.3
  • 47
    • 41949124639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can multi-model combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts?
    • DOI 10.1002/qj.210
    • Weigel AP, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2008a) Can multimodel combination really enhance the prediction skill of probabilistic ensemble forecasts? Q J R Meteorol Soc 134: 241-260 (Pubitemid 351512725)
    • (2008) Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society , vol.134 , Issue.630 , pp. 241-260
    • Weigel, A.P.1    Liniger, M.A.2    Appenzeller, C.3
  • 49
    • 67649438091 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multimodels?
    • Weigel AP, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2009) Seasonal ensemble forecasts: Are recalibrated single models better than multimodels? Mon Weather Rev 137: 1460-1479
    • (2009) Mon Weather Rev , vol.137 , pp. 1460-1479
    • Weigel, A.P.1    Liniger, M.A.2    Appenzeller, C.3
  • 51
    • 79957449632 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext)
    • Wolter K, Timlin MS (2011) El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext). Int J Climatol 31: 1074-1087
    • (2011) Int J Climatol , vol.31 , pp. 1074-1087
    • Wolter, K.1    Timlin, M.S.2
  • 52
    • 84865093809 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A decadal prediction case study: Late twentiethcentury North Atlantic Ocean heat content
    • Yeager S, Karspeck A, Danabasoglu G, Tribbia J, Teng H (2012) A decadal prediction case study: late twentiethcentury North Atlantic Ocean heat content. J Clim 25: 5173-5189
    • (2012) J Clim , vol.25 , pp. 5173-5189
    • Yeager, S.1    Karspeck, A.2    Danabasoglu, G.3    Tribbia, J.4    Teng, H.5
  • 53
    • 79251544945 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of observation-optimized model parameters on decadal predictions: Simulation with a simple pycnocline prediction model
    • doi:10.1029/2010GL046133
    • Zhang S (2011) Impact of observation-optimized model parameters on decadal predictions: simulation with a simple pycnocline prediction model. Geophys Res Lett 38: L02702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046133
    • (2011) Geophys Res Lett , vol.38
    • Zhang, S.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.