Losing ground: Past history and future fate of Arctic small mammals in a changing climate

Global Change Biology

Volumn 19, Issue 6, 2013, Pages 1854-1864

  Prost, Stefan ^a,b   Guralnick, Robert P ^c   Waltari, Eric ^d   Fedorov, Vadim B ^e   Kuzmina, Elena ^f   Smirnov, Nickolay ^f   van Kolfschoten, Thijs ^g   Hofreiter, Michael ^h,i   Vrieling, Klaas ^h,j  

^a UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO   (New Zealand)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^d CITY COLLEGE OF NEW YORK   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA FAIRBANKS   (United States)

^f INSTITUTE OF PLANT AND ANIMAL ECOLOGY   (Russian Federation)

^g LEIDEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^h MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR EVOLUTIONARY ANTHROPOLOGY   (Germany)

ⁱ UNIVERSITY OF YORK   (United Kingdom)

^j LEIDEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

more..

Author keywords

Ancient DNA; Collared lemming; Dicrostonyx torquatus; Ecological niche modeling; Late quaternary climate change; Microtus gregalis; Narrow skulled vole

Indexed keywords

ARCTIC ENVIRONMENT; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMMUNITY DYNAMICS; DEMOGRAPHY; DNA; ECOLOGICAL MODELING; ECOSYSTEM RESPONSE; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; FUTURE PROSPECT; GLACIAL-INTERGLACIAL CYCLE; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; NICHE; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; SMALL MAMMAL; WARMING;

ANIMAL; ARCTIC; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; MAMMAL; PHYSIOLOGY; THEORETICAL MODEL;

ANIMALS; ARCTIC REGIONS; CLIMATE CHANGE; MAMMALS; MODELS, THEORETICAL;

DICROSTONYX; DICROSTONYX TORQUATUS; MAMMALIA; MICROTUS GREGALIS; MURIDAE;

EID: 84877078942     PISSN: 13541013     EISSN: 13652486     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12157     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Aars J, Ims RA (2002) Intrinsic and climatic determinants of population demography: the winter dynamics of tundra voles. Ecology, 83, 3449-3456.
2. Anderson CNK, Ramakrishnan U, Chan YL, Hadly EA (2005) Serial SimCoal: a population genetics model for data from multiple populations and points in time. Bioinformatics, 21, 1733-1734.
3. Anisimov O, Lobanov V, Reneva S (2007) Analysis of changes in air temperature in Russia and empirical forecast for the first quarter of the 21st century. Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 32, 620-626.
4. Batzli G, White R, Maclean S Jr, Pitelka F, Collier B (1980) The Herbivore-Based Trophic System. An Arctic Ecosystem: The Coastal Tundra at Barrow, Alaska. Dowden, Hutchinson & Ross, Stroudsburg, PA, pp. 335-410.
5. Batzli GO, Pitelka FA, Cameron GN (1983) Habitat use by lemmings near Barrow, Alaska. Ecography, 6, 255-262.
6. Beaumont MA, Zhang W, Balding DJ (2002) Approximate Bayesian computation in population genetics. Genetics, 162, 2025-2035.
7. Bellard C, Bertelsmeier C, Leadley P, Thuiller W, Courchamp F (2012) Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity. Ecology Letters, 15, 365-377.
8. Bêty J, Gauthier G, Giroux JF, Korpimäki E (2001) Are goose nesting success and lemming cycles linked? Interplay between nest density and predators. Oikos, 93, 388-400.
9. Bintanja R, Graversen R, Hazeleger W (2011) Arctic winter warming amplified by the thermal inversion and consequent low infrared cooling to space. Nature Geoscience, 4, 758-761.
10. Blum MGB, François O (2010) Non-linear regression models for Approximate Bayesian Computation. Statistics and Computing, 20, 63-73.
11. Botkin DB, Saxe H, Araujo MB et al. (2007) Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity. BioScience, 57, 227-236.
12. Callaghan T, Björn L, Chernov Y et al. (2004) Climate change and UV-B impacts on arctic tundra and polar desert ecosystems: key findings and extended summaries. Ambio, 33, 386-392.
13. Collins WD, Bitz CM, Blackmon ML et al. (2006) The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3). Journal of Climate, 19, 2122-2143.
14. Csilléry K, François O, Blum MGB (2011) abc: an R package for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 3, 475-479.
15. Dawson TP, Jackson ST, House JI, Prentice IC, Mace GM (2011) Beyond predictions: biodiversity conservation in a changing climate. Science, 332, 53-58.
16. Drummond AJ, Rambaut A (2009) Trace v1.4. Available at: http://beast.bio.ed.ac.uk/tracer (accessed 9 February 2012).
17. Drummond A, Rambaut A, Shapiro B, Pybus O (2005) Bayesian coalescent inference of past population dynamics from molecular sequences. Molecular Biology and Evolution, 22, 1185-1192.
18. Fairbanks RG, Mortlock RA, Chiu TC et al. (2005) Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50, 000 years BP based on paired 230Th/234U/238U and 14C dates on pristine corals. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, 1781-1796.
19. Gilg O, Kovacs KM, Aars J et al. (2012) Climate change and the ecology and evolution of Arctic vertebrates. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1249, 166-190.
20. Golovachov IB, Smirnov NG (2009) The Late Pleistocene and Holocene rodents of the Pre-Urals subarctic. Quaternary International, 201, 37-42.
21. Hasumi H, Emori S (2004) K-1 Coupled GCM (MIROC) Description. Center for Climate System Research, University of Tokyo, Tokyo.
22. Hijmans RJ, Graham CH (2006) The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions. Global Change Biology, 12, 2272-2281.
23. Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978.
24. Hinzman LD, Bettez ND, Bolton WR et al. (2005) Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions. Climatic Change, 72, 251-298.
25. Holland MM, Bitz CM (2003) Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Climate Dynamics, 21, 221-232.
26. Houghton JT (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
27. Ims RA, Fuglei E (2005) Trophic interaction cycles in tundra ecosystems and the impact of climate change. BioScience, 55, 311-322.
28. Ims RA, Henden JA, Killengreen ST (2008) Collapsing population cycles. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 23, 79-86.
29. Johns T, Durman C, Banks H et al. (2006) The new Hadley Centre climate model (HadGEM1): evaluation of coupled simulations. Journal of Climate, 19, 1327-1353.
30. Jombart T (2008) adegenet: a R package for the multivariate analysis of genetic markers. Bioinformatics, 24, 1403-1405.
31. Jombart T, Devillard S, Balloux F (2010) Discriminant analysis of principal components: a new method for the analysis of genetically structured populations. BMC Genetics, 11, 94.
32. Kerr J, Packer L (1998) The impact of climate change on mammal diversity in Canada. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 49, 263-270.
33. Lorenzen ED, Nogues-Bravo D, Orlando L et al. (2011) Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans. Nature, 479, 359-364.
34. Nogues-Bravo D (2009) Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 18, 521-531.
35. 2 exchange in the Alaskan Arctic in response to decadal climate warming. Nature, 406, 978-981.
36. Ognev S (1963) Mammals of the USSR and Adjacent Countries-Volume 6: Rodents. National Science Foundation, Moscow.
37. Olofsson J, Tømmervik H, Callaghan TV (2012) Vole and lemming activity observed from space. Nature Climate Change, 2, 880-883.
38. Phillips SJ, Dudík M (2008) Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation. Ecography, 31, 161-175.
39. Phillips SJ, Anderson RP, Schapire RE (2006) Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions. Ecological Modelling, 190, 231-259.
40. Posada D (2008) jModelTest: phylogenetic model averaging. Molecular Biology and Evolution, 25, 1253-1256.
41. Post E, Forchhammer MC (2008) Climate change reduces reproductive success of an Arctic herbivore through trophic mismatch. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 363, 2367-2373.
42. Post E, Forchhammer MC, Bret-Harte MS et al. (2009) Ecological dynamics across the Arctic associated with recent climate change. Science, 325, 1355-1358.
43. Prost S, Anderson CNK (2011) TempNet: a method to display statistical parsimony networks for heterochronous DNA sequence data. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2, 663-667.
44. Prost S, Smirnov N, Fedorov VB et al. (2010) Influence of climate warming on arctic mammals? New insights from ancient DNA studies of the collared lemming Dicrostonyx torquatus. PLoS ONE, 5, e10447.
45. Ramirez J, Jarvis A (2010) Downscaling Global Circulation Model Outputs: The Delta Method. International Center for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT, Cali, Colombia.
46. Ravolainen VT, Bråthen KA, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG, Henden JA, Killengreen ST (2011) Rapid, landscape scale responses in riparian tundra vegetation to exclusion of small and large mammalian herbivores. Basic and Applied Ecology, 2, 643-653.
47. Ray N, Adams JM (2001) A GIS-based vegetation map of the world at the last glacial maximum (25, 000-15, 000 BP). Internet Archaeology, 11, Available at: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/ray2001/ray_adams_2001.pdf/ (accessed 25 January 2012).
48. Reddy S, Dávalos LM (2003) Geographical sampling bias and its implications for conservation priorities in Africa. Journal of Biogeography, 30, 1719-1727.
49. Rodgers AR, Lewis MC (1985) Diet selection in Arctic lemmings (Lemmus sibericus and Dicrostonyx groenlandicus): food preferences. Canadian journal of zoology, 63, 1161-1173.
50. Rohland N, Hofreiter M (2007) Ancient DNA extraction from bones and teeth. Nature Protocols, 2, 1756-1762.
51. Römpler H, Dear PH, Krause J et al. (2006) Multiplex amplification of ancient DNA. Nature Protocols, 1, 720-728.
52. Smirnov N, Kuz'mina E, Golovachev I, Fadeeva T (2007) The narrow-skulled vole (Microtus gregalis Pall.) in the dynamics of zonal rodent communities of northern Eurasia. Russian Journal of Ecology, 38, 106-111.
53. Stirling I, Parkinson CL (2006) Possible effects of climate warming on selected populations of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic, 59, 261-275.
54. Sturm M, Schimel J, Michaelson G et al. (2005) Winter biological processes could help convert Arctic tundra to shrubland. BioScience, 55, 17-26.
55. Summers RW, Underhill LG, Syroechkovski EE Jr (1998) The breeding productivity of dark-bellied brent geese and curlew sandpipers in relation to changes in the numbers of arctic foxes and lemmings on the Taimyr Peninsula, Siberia. Ecography, 21, 573-580.
56. Svendsen JI, Alexanderson H, Astakhov VI et al. (2004) Late Quaternary ice sheet history of northern Eurasia. Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 1229-1271.
57. Tape K, Sturm M, Racine C (2006) The evidence for shrub expansion in northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic. Global Change Biology, 12, 686-702.
58. Trenberth K, Jones P, Ambenje P et al. (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Scientific Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (eds Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor MMB, Miller HL Jr, Chen Z), pp. 235-336. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
59. Warren DL, Glor RE, Turelli M (2010) ENMTools: a toolbox for comparative studies of environmental niche models. Ecography, 33, 607-611.
60. Watson A (1956) Ecological notes on the lemmings Lemmus trimucronatus and Dicrostonyx groenlandicus in Baffin Island. The Journal of Animal Ecology, 25, 289-302.
61. Wilson DE, Reeder DaM (2005) Mammal Species of the World: A Taxonomic and Geographic Reference. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore.