Evolution in response to climate change: In pursuit of the missing evidence

BioEssays

Volumn 34, Issue 9, 2012, Pages 811-818

  Merilä, Juha ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI   (Finland)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Evolution; Genetic variation

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOLOGICAL NICHE; EVOLUTION; EVOLUTIONARY ADAPTATION; GENETIC TRAIT; GENETIC VARIABILITY; NONHUMAN; PHENOTYPE; PLASTICITY; TIME;

ADAPTATION, PHYSIOLOGICAL; ANIMALS; BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION; BODY SIZE; CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM; GENETIC FITNESS; GENETIC VARIATION; GENETICS, POPULATION; PHENOTYPE; SELECTION, GENETIC;

EID: 84865181239     PISSN: 02659247     EISSN: 15211878     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/bies.201200054     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R, Lo K, et al. 2006. Global temperature change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103: 14288-93.
2. Parmesan C, Yohe G. 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
3. Root TL, Price JT, Hall KR, Schneider SH, et al. 2003. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421: 57-60.
4. Perry AL, Low PJ, Ellis JR, Reynolds JD. 2005. Climate change and distribution shifts in marine fishes. Science 308: 1912-5.
5. Chen IC, Hill JK, Ohlemuller R, Roy DB, et al. 2011. Rapid range shifts of species associated with high levels of climate warming. Science 333: 1024-6.
6. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, et al. 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389-95.
7. Parmesan C. 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37: 637-90.
8. Gienapp P, Teplitsky C, Alho JS, Mills JA, et al. 2008. Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses. Mol Ecol 17: 167-78.
9. Lynch M, Lande R. 1993. Evolution and extinction in response to environmental change. In Kareiva PM, Kingsolver JG, Huey RB, eds; Biotic Interactions and Global Change. Sunderland, Massachusetts: Sinauer Associates. pp. 234-50.
10. Bürger R, Lynch M. 1995. Evolution and extinction in a changing environment: a quantitative-genetic analysis. Evolution 49: 151-63.
11. Chevin L-G, Lande R, Mace G. 2010. Adaptation, plasticity, and extinction in a changing environment: towards a predictive theory. PLoS Biol 8: e1000357.
12. 2 in a green alga. Nature 431: 566-9.
13. Lohbeck KT, Riebesell U, Reusch TBH. 2012. Adaptive evolution of a key phytoplankton species to ocean acidification. Nat Geosci 5: 346-51.
14. Hoffmann AA, Srgo CM. 2011. Climate change and evolutionary adaptation. Nature 470: 479-85.
15. Hoffmann AA, Daborn PJ. 2007. Towards genetic markers in animal populations as biomonitors for human-induced environmental change. Ecol Lett 10: 63-76.
16. Reusch TBH, Wood TE. 2007. Molecular ecology of global change. Mol Ecol 16: 3973-92.
17. Gienapp P, Postma E, Visser ME. 2006. Why breeding time has not responded to selection for earlier breeding in a songbird population. Evolution 60: 2381-8.
18. Teplitsky C, Mills JA, Alho JS, Yarall JW, et al. 2008. Bergmann's rule and climate change: disentangling environmental and genetic responses in a wild bird population. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 13492-6.
19. Teplitsky C, Mills JA, Yarall JW, Merilä J. 2010. Indirect genetic effects in a sex limited trait: the case of breeding time in red-billed gulls. J Evol Biol 23: 935-44.
20. Conover DO, Schultz ET. 1995. Phenotypic similarity and the evolutionary significance of countergradient variation. Trends Ecol Evol 10: 248-52.
21. Merilä J, Kruuk LEB, Sheldon BC. 2001. Cryptic evolution in a wild bird population. Nature 412: 76-9.
22. Postma E. 2006. Implications of the difference between true and predicted breeding values for the study of natural selection and micro-evolution. J Evol Biol 19: 309-20.
23. Hadfield JD, Wilson AJ, Garant D, Sheldon BC, et al. 2010. The misuse of BLUP in ecology and evolution. Am Nat 175: 116-25.
24. Pemberton JM. 2010. Evolution of quantitative traits in the wild: mind the ecology. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 365: 2431-8.
25. Conover DO, Duffy TA, Hice LA. 2009. The covariance between genetic and environmental influences across ecological gradients reassessing the evolutionary significance of countergradient and cogradient variation. Ann NY Acad Sci 1168: 100-29.
26. Baumann H, Conover DO. 2011. Adaptation to climate change: contrasting patterns of thermal-reaction-norm evolution in Pacific versus Atlantic silversides. Proc Biol Sci 278: 2265-73.
27. Kinnison MT, Hendry AP. 2001. The pace of modern life ii: From rates of contemporary microevolution to pattern and process. Genetica 112-113: 145-64.
28. Hairston NG, Ellner SP, Geber MA, Yoshida T, et al. 2005. Rapid evolution and the convergence of ecological and evolutionary time. Ecol Lett 8: 1114-27.
29. Kinnison MT, Hairston NG. 2007. Eco-evolutionary conservation biology: contemporary evolution and the dynamics of persistence. Funct Ecol 21: 444-54.
30. Aitken SN, Yeaman S, Holliday JA, Wang T, et al. 2008. Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evol Appl 1: 95-111.
31. Forcada J, Trathan PN. 2009. Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean. Global Change Biol 15: 1618-30.
32. Jenouvrier S, Caswell H, Barbraud C, Holland M, et al. 2009. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106: 1844-7.
33. Lande R. 2009. Adaptation to an extraordinary environment by evolution of phenotypic plasticity and genetic assimilation. J Evol Biol 22: 1435-46.
34. Garant D, Kruuk LEB, Wilkin TA, McCleery RH, et al. 2005. Evolution driven by differential dispersal within a wild bird population. Nature 433: 60-5.
35. Carroll SP, Hendry AP, Reznick DN, Fox CW. 2007. Evolution on ecological time-scales. Funct Ecol 21: 387-93.
36. Berg M, Kiers T, Driessedn G, Van Der Heiden M, et al. 2010. Adapt or disperse: understanding species persistence in a changing world. Global Change Biol 16: 587-98.
37. de Mazancourt C, Johnson E, Barraclough TG. 2008. Biodiversity inhibits species' evolutionary responses to changing environments. Ecol Lett 11: 380-8.
38. Kruuk LEB, Merilä J, Sheldon BC. 2003. When environmental variation short-circuits natural selection. Trends Ecol Evol 18: 207-9.
39. Lynch M, Walsh B. 1998. Genetics and Analysis of Quantitative Traits. Sunderland, Massachusetts: Sinauer.
40. Hoffmann AA, Hallas RJ, Dean JA, Schiffer M. 2003. Low potential for climatic stress adaptation in a rainforest Drosophila species. Science 301: 100-2.
41. Kellerman V, van Heerwaarden B, Sgro CM, Hoffmann AA. 2009. Fundamental evolutionary limits in ecological traits drive Drosophila species distributions. Science 325: 1244-6.
42. Kelly MW, Sanford E, Grosberg RK. 2012. Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean. Proc Biol Sci 279: 349-56.
43. Merilä J. 2009. Genetic constraints on adaptive evolution? Science 325: 1212-3.
44. Merilä J. 1997. Expression of genetic variation in body size of the collared flycatcher under different environmental conditions. Evolution 51: 526-36.
45. Hoffmann AA, Merilä J. 1999. Heritable variation and evolution under favourable and unfavourable conditions. Trends Ecol Evol 14: 96-101.
46. Wilson AJ, Pemberton JM, Pilkington JG, Coltman DW, et al. 2006. Environmental coupling of selection and heritability limits evolution. PLoS Biol 4: 1270-5.
47. Husby A, Visser M, Kruuk LEB. 2011. Speeding up microevolution: the effects of increasing temperature on selection and genetic variance in a wild bird population. PLoS Biol 9: e1000585.
48. Martin G, Lenormand T. 2006. The fitness effect of mutations in stressful environments: a survey in the light of fitness landscape models. Evolution 60: 2413-27.
49. Etterson JR, Shaw RG. 2001. Constraint to adaptive evolution in response to global warming. Science 294: 151-4.
50. Teplitsky C, Mouawad NG, Balbontin J, De Lope F, et al. 2011. Quantitative genetics of migration syndromes: a study of two barn swallow populations. J Evol Biol 24: 2025-39.
51. Walsh B, Blows MW. 2009. Abundant genetic variation plus strong selection=Multivariate genetic constraints: a geometric view of adaptation. Annu Rev Ecol Syst 40: 41-59.
52. Sgrò CM, Hoffmann AA. 2004. Genetic correlations, tradeoffs and environmental variation. Heredity 93: 241-8.
53. Duputie A, Massol F, Chuine I, Kirkpatrick M, et al. 2012. How do genetic correlations affect species range shifts in a changing environment? Ecol Lett 15: 251-9.
54. Wolf JB, Brodie ED, Wade MJ. 2000. Epistasis and the Evolutionary Process. Oxford: Oxford University Process.
55. Zuk O, Hechtera E, Sunyaeva SR, Lander ES. 2012. The mystery of missing heritability: genetic interactions create phantom heritability. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109: 1193-8.
56. Weinreich DM, Delaney NF, DePristo MA, Hartl DL. 2006. Darwinian evolution can follow only very few mutational paths to fitter proteins. Science 312: 111-4.
57. Khan AI, Dinh DM, Schneider D, Lenski RE, et al. 2011. Negative epistasis between beneficial mutations in an evolving bacterial population. Science 332: 1193-6.
58. Wolf JB, Brodie ED, Cheverud JM, Moore AJ, et al. 1998. Evolutionary consequences of indirect genetic effects. Trends Ecol Evol 13: 64-9.
59. McGlothlin JW, Moore AJ, Wolf JB, Brodie ED. 2010. Interacting phenotypes and the evolutionary process. III. Social evolution. Evolution 64: 2558-74.
60. Chevin L-M, Lande R. 2011. Adaptation to marginal habitats by evolution of increased phenotypic plasticity. J Evol Biol 24: 1462-76.
61. Fierst JL. 2011. A history of phenotypic plasticity accelerates adaptation to a new environment. J Evol Biol 24: 1992-2001.
62. Charmantier A, McCleery RH, Cole LR, Perrins C, et al. 2008. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population. Science 320: 800-3.
63. Møller AP, Rubolini D, Lehikoinen E. 2008. Populations of migratory bird species that did not show a phenological response to climate change are declining. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 16195-200.
64. Huey RB, Tewksbury JJ. 2009. Can behaviour douse the fire of climate warming? Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106: 3647-8.
65. Kearney M, Shine R, Porter W. 2009. The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106: 3835-40.
66. Salinas S, Munch SB. 2012. Thermal legacies: transgenerational effects of temperature on growth in a vertebrate. Ecol Lett 15: 159-63.
67. Millien V, Lyons SK, Olson L, Smith FA, et al. 2006. Ecotypic variation in the context of global climate change: revisiting the rules. Ecol Lett 9: 853-69.
68. Gardner JL, Peters A, Kearney MR, Joseph L, et al. 2011. Declining body size: a third universal response to warming? Trends Ecol Evol 26: 285-91.
69. Weimerskirch H, Louzao M, de Grissac S, Delord K. 2012. Changes in wind pattern alter albatross distribution and life-history traits. Science 335: 211-4.
70. Barton NH. 2001. The role of hybridization in evolution. Mol Ecol 10: 551-68.
71. Aubret F, Shine R. 2009. Genetic assimilation and the postcolonization erosion of phenotypic plasticity in island Tiger snakes. Curr Biol 19: 1932-6.
72. Endler JA. 1977. Geographic Variation, Speciation, and Clines. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
73. Endler JA. 1986. Natural Selection in the Wild. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
74. Fukami T, Wardle DA. 2010. Long-term ecological dynamics: reciprocal insights from natural and anthropogenic gradients. Proc Biol Sci 272: 2105-15.
75. Hof C, Levinsky I, Araujo MB, Rahbek C. 2011. Rethinking species' ability to cope with rapid climate change. Global Change Biol 17: 2987-90.
76. Pörtner HO, Peck MA. 2010. Climate change effects on fishes and fisheries: towards a cause-and-effect understanding. J Fish Biol 77: 1745-79.
77. Somero GN. 2010. The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine 'winners' and 'losers'. J Exp Biol 213: 912-20.
78. Crozier LG, Scheuerell MD, Zabel RW. 2011. Using time series analysis to characterize evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental change: a case study of a shift toward earlier migration date in Sockeye salmon. Am Nat 178: 755-73.
79. Belkin IM. 2009. Rapid warming of large marine ecosystems. Prog Oceanogr 81: 207-13.
80. IPCC 2007. Summary for Policymakers. In: Solomon SD, et al., ed; Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press.
81. Berteaux D, Réale D, McAdam AD, Boutin S. 2004. Keeping pace with fast climate change: can arctic life count on evolution? Integr Comp Biol 44: 140-51.
82. Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Deutsch CA. 2008. Putting the heat on tropical animals. Science 320: 1296-7.
83. Deutsch CA, Tewksbury JJ, Huey RB, Sheldon KS, et al. 2008. Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 105: 6668-72.
84. Holt RD. 1990. The microevolutionary consequences of climate change. Trends Ecol Evol 5: 311-5.
85. Balanya J, Oller JM, Huey RB, Gilchrist GW, et al. 2006. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura. Science 313: 1773-5.
86. Umina PA, Weeks AR, Kearney MR, McKechnie SW, et al. 2005. A rapid shift in a classic clinal pattern in Drosophila reflecting climate change. Science 308: 691-3.
87. Levitan M, Etges WJ. 2005. Climate change and recent genetic flux in populations of Drosophila robusta. BMC Evol Biol 5: 4.
88. Bradshaw WE, Holzapfel CM. 2001. Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated with global warming. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98: 14509-11.
89. Réale D, McAdam AG, Boutin S, Berteaux D. 2003. Genetic and plastic responses of a northern mammal to climate change. Proc Biol Sci 270: 591-6.
90. Berthold P, Helbig AJ, Mohr G, Querner U. 1992. Rapid microevolution of migratory behavior in a wild bird species. Nature 360: 668-70.
91. Franks SJ, Sim S, Weis AE. 2007. Rapid evolution of flowering time by an annual plant in response to a climate fluctuation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 104: 1278-82.
92. Karell P, Ahola K, Karstinen T, Valkama J, et al. 2011. Climate change drives microevolution in a wild bird. Nat Commun 2: 208.
93. Ozgul A, Tuljapurkar S, Benton TG, Pemberton JM, et al. 2009. The dynamics of phenotypic change and the shrinking sheep of St. Kilda. Science 325: 464-7.
94. Ozgul A, Childs DZ, Oli MK, Armitage KB, et al. 2010. Coupled dynamics of body mass and population growth in response to environmental change. Nature 466: 482-5.
95. Husby A, Hille SM, Visser ME. 2011. Testing mechanisms of Bergmann's rule: Phenotypic decline but no genetic change in body size in three passerine bird populations. Am Nat 178: 202-13.