메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 29, Issue 4, 2012, Pages 782-794

An effective configuration of ensemble size and horizontal resolution for the NCEP GEFS

Author keywords

ensemble mean forecast; ensemble size; horizontal resolution; NCEP operational GEFS; probabilistic forecast

Indexed keywords


EID: 84862693341     PISSN: 02561530     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00376-012-1249-y     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (32)

References (24)
  • 1
    • 77954449861 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Horizontal resolution impact on short and long range forecast error
    • Buizza, R., 2010: Horizontal resolution impact on short and long range forecast error. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 1020-1035.
    • (2010) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.136 , pp. 1020-1035
    • Buizza, R.1
  • 2
    • 0032453445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction
    • Buizza, R., and T. Palmer, 1998: Impact of ensemble size on ensemble prediction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 2503-2518.
    • (1998) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.126 , pp. 2503-2518
    • Buizza, R.1    Palmer, T.2
  • 4
    • 0033117880 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System
    • Buizza, R., A. Hollingsworth, F. Lalaurette, and A. Ghelli, 1999: Probabilistic predictions of precipitation using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 168-189.
    • (1999) Wea. Forecasting , vol.14 , pp. 168-189
    • Buizza, R.1    Hollingsworth, A.2    Lalaurette, F.3    Ghelli, A.4
  • 6
    • 0001193751 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation
    • Du, J., S. L. Mullen, and F. Sanders, 1997: Short-range ensemble forecasting of quantitative precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 2427-2459.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 2427-2459
    • Du, J.1    Mullen, S.L.2    Sanders, F.3
  • 7
    • 0000630257 scopus 로고
    • Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts
    • Leith, C. E., 1974: Theoretical skill of Monte Carlo forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 102, 409-418.
    • (1974) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.102 , pp. 409-418
    • Leith, C.E.1
  • 8
    • 0036553490 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system
    • Mullen, S. L., and R. Buizza, 2002: The impact of horizontal resolution and ensemble size on probabilistic forecasts of precipitation by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 173-191.
    • (2002) Wea. Forecasting , vol.17 , pp. 173-191
    • Mullen, S.L.1    Buizza, R.2
  • 9
    • 20544460690 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes
    • Muller, W. A., C. Appenzeller, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, and M. A. Liniger, 2005: A debiased ranked probability skill score to evaluate probabilistic ensemble forecasts with small ensemble sizes. J. Climate, 18, 1513-1523.
    • (2005) J. Climate , vol.18 , pp. 1513-1523
    • Muller, W.A.1    Appenzeller, C.2    Doblas-Reyes, F.J.3    Liniger, M.A.4
  • 10
    • 0000918735 scopus 로고
    • A new vector partition of the probability score
    • Murphy, A. H., 1973: A new vector partition of the probability score. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 595-600.
    • (1973) J. Appl. Meteor. , vol.12 , pp. 595-600
    • Murphy, A.H.1
  • 11
    • 79960724128 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of resolution and design on the U.S. navy global ensemble performance in the tropics
    • Reynolds, C. A., J. G. McLay, J. S. Goerss, E. A. Serra, D. Hodyss, and C. R. Sampson, 2011: Impact of resolution and design on the U. S. navy global ensemble performance in the tropics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2145-2155.
    • (2011) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.139 , pp. 2145-2155
    • Reynolds, C.A.1    McLay, J.G.2    Goerss, J.S.3    Serra, E.A.4    Hodyss, D.5    Sampson, C.R.6
  • 12
    • 0035473127 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size
    • Richardson, D. S., 2001: Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble size. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 2473-2489.
    • (2001) Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , vol.127 , pp. 2473-2489
    • Richardson, D.S.1
  • 13
    • 0036566737 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effect of increased horizontal resolution on the NCEP global ensemble mean forecasts
    • Szunyogh, I., and Z. Toth, 2002: The effect of increased horizontal resolution on the NCEP global ensemble mean forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 1125-1143.
    • (2002) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.130 , pp. 1125-1143
    • Szunyogh, I.1    Toth, Z.2
  • 14
    • 0000593274 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method
    • Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
    • (1997) Mon. Wea. Rev. , vol.125 , pp. 3297-3319
    • Toth, Z.1    Kalnay, E.2
  • 16
    • 33645982241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble transform Kalman filter based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP
    • Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, Y. Zhu, C. H. Bishop, and X. Wang, 2006: Ensemble transform Kalman filter based ensemble perturbations in an operational global prediction system at NCEP. Tellus A, 58, 28-44.
    • (2006) Tellus A , vol.58 , pp. 28-44
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2    Wobus, R.3    Zhu, Y.4    Bishop, C.H.5    Wang, X.6
  • 17
    • 37549070304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system
    • Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2008: Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system. Tellus A, 60, 62-79.
    • (2008) Tellus A , vol.60 , pp. 62-79
    • Wei, M.1    Toth, Z.2    Wobus, R.3    Zhu, Y.4
  • 19
    • 85071447062 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 2004: Probabilistic forecasts and evaluations based on global ensemble forecast system. Vol. 3
    • Zhu, Y., 2004: Probabilistic forecasts and evaluations based on global ensemble forecast system. Vol. 3, World Scientific Series on Meteorology of East Asia, 277-287.
    • World Scientific Series on Meteorology of East Asia , pp. 277-287
    • Zhu, Y.1
  • 20
    • 28844475622 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble forecast: A new approach to uncertainty and predictability
    • Zhu, Y., 2005: Ensemble forecast: A new approach to uncertainty and predictability. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 22, 781-788.
    • (2005) Adv. Atmos. Sci. , vol.22 , pp. 781-788
    • Zhu, Y.1
  • 21
    • 84862704439 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ensemble based probabilistic forecast verification
    • New Orleans, Louisiana: Amer. Meteor. Soc
    • Zhu, Y., and Z. Toth, 2008: Ensemble based probabilistic forecast verification. Preprints, 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics, Amer. Meteor. Soc., New Orleans, Louisiana, 1-6.
    • (2008) 19th Conference on Probability and Statistics , pp. 1-6
    • Zhu, Y.1    Toth, Z.2
  • 22
    • 84862698568 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predictability, probabilistic forecasting and ensemble prediction system
    • China: WMO Re gional Training Center, NUIST
    • Zhu, Y., and J. Ma, 2010: Predictability, probabilistic forecasting and ensemble prediction system. Lecture Notes on Numerical Weather Prediction, WMO Re gional Training Center, NUIST, China, 43-60.
    • (2010) Lecture Notes on Numerical Weather Prediction , pp. 43-60
    • Zhu, Y.1    Ma, J.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.